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Reliable Statistics about Forex

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 9, 2007 9:00am Jan 9, 2007 9:00am
Is there an agency or website that releases reliable statistics about Forex. I would like to see the results of some scientific studies about retail traders. For example what percentage of retail traders are winners? How much they invest? Their age group, their gender, etc.

I also want to know how much money is traded in Forex on a daily basis and many more questions.

I'm looking for reliable sources.

Good Luck,
Al
  • #2
  • Jan 9, 2007 1:44pm Jan 9, 2007 1:44pm
Forex is not a centralized market. There is no way to see what all the players are doing. There are ways to see bits and pieces though. For example, the COTs will let you see what the futures traders are doing. Oanda reports on open positions so you can see what their customers are doing (it's fairly safe to assume that their customer base is representative of the retail market).

I seriously doubt that brokers are publishing things such as age and gender of their clients. Forums like these will give you some idea of the retail traders though. However, it's the banks and funds that do all the FX trading, so focusing on the retail market for stats on the traders is truly a waste of time. You're better off looking at the stats for the traders of the banks and funds (middle-class, well-educated, ambitious, arrogant, and way smarter than the average retail trader...which is all you need to know about them).

If you want hard numbers, go to the Bank for International Settlements and the New York Federal Reserve Bank and get the numbers from them. I got the data for 2005 from the Fed last year. It makes for interesting reading (it's an Excel sheet, very large, very detailed).
  • #3
  • Jan 10, 2007 9:54am Jan 10, 2007 9:54am
Quoting Dopey
Forex is not a centralized market. There is no way to see what all the players are doing. There are ways to see bits and pieces though. For example, the COTs will let you see what the futures traders are doing. Oanda reports on open positions so you can see what their customers are doing (it's fairly safe to assume that their customer base is representative of the retail market).

I seriously doubt that brokers are publishing things such as age and gender of their clients. Forums like these will give you some idea of the retail traders though. However, it's the banks and funds that do all the FX trading, so focusing on the retail market for stats on the traders is truly a waste of time. You're better off looking at the stats for the traders of the banks and funds (middle-class, well-educated, ambitious, arrogant, and way smarter than the average retail trader...which is all you need to know about them).

If you want hard numbers, go to the Bank for International Settlements and the New York Federal Reserve Bank and get the numbers from them. I got the data for 2005 from the Fed last year. It makes for interesting reading (it's an Excel sheet, very large, very detailed).
Thanks very much for your feedback. I'm not looking for the data to help me trade. I want to know the validity of the claims we hear on websites. For example you hear that over 90% of retail traders are losers. Is that really true?
  • #4
  • Jan 10, 2007 10:17am Jan 10, 2007 10:17am
Quoting aparsai
Thanks very much for your feedback. I'm not looking for the data to help me trade. I want to know the validity of the claims we hear on websites. For example you hear that over 90% of retail traders are losers. Is that really true?
Who really knows for a fact? It's inferred and I'm guessing it's not far off. During the daytrading craze of the late 90's in the US a huge amount of accounts were opened with places like Ameritrade. Figures have reportedly been released, and I saw an article once about it, and they showed an amazingly high rate of blown accounts. The one thing that stuck in my head about the article was it mentioned that a large number of accounts were run down, not to zero but close to it. Then they were abandoned. Understanding basic human psychology one can believe this behavior would happen.

I suspect that if all the FX brokers were to post their numbers we'd see the vast majority of accounts are opened with less than $2,000 and are run into the ground within six months. I personally have met a lot of people who have tried trading in one form or another. Less than 5 of them have made money at it and only one was able to make millions (he worked for Tudor).

It's a tough business, no doubt about that.
  • #5
  • Jan 10, 2007 4:08pm Jan 10, 2007 4:08pm
Quoting aparsai
Thanks very much for your feedback. I'm not looking for the data to help me trade. I want to know the validity of the claims we hear on websites. For example you hear that over 90% of retail traders are losers. Is that really true?
actually I read the statement '90% of traders lose' is a conspiracy of the US government to sway people away from trading. This is from the wolfe wave website.I mean trading is a very lucrative business and it doesn't take a genius to make a lot of money just sitting at this computer all day. It's bad for the economy because it discourages people from undertaking specialization jobs like engineering, medicine, business, etc. i don't know
  • #6
  • Jan 10, 2007 4:34pm Jan 10, 2007 4:34pm
Hello guys,

Great topic! I am very glad somebody brought this subject up. Indeed this is a very tough market and can be lucratrive to those who have the right margin available.

My question is how can someone with a mini account be profitable doing all oh their research correctly and working hard to try to make a few bucks?

Is it really posssible? Will my funds eventually get eaten up by this market?

Those statistics are very scary you guys mentioned for someone who is new in this market and wants grow with it.

What do you guys think is the future in this market for a guy like me with a mini account that does everything right? Am I set up to eventually lose my small investment with the forex market?

Any advice would be very helpful.

thanks,

Christian99
  • #7
  • Jan 10, 2007 4:45pm Jan 10, 2007 4:45pm
Quoting christian99
Hello guys,

Great topic! I am very glad somebody brought this subject up. Indeed this is a very tough market and can be lucratrive to those who have the right margin available.

My question is how can someone with a mini account be profitable doing all oh their research correctly and working hard to try to make a few bucks?

Is it really posssible? Will my funds eventually get eaten up by this market?

Those statistics are very scary you guys mentioned for someone who is new in this market and wants grow with it.

What do you guys think is the future in this market for a guy like me with a mini account that does everything right? Am I set up to eventually lose my small investment with the forex market?

Any advice would be very helpful.

thanks,

Christian99
yes if you take your time and keep your goals realistic.. It will take time but it can be done.. but I your trying to turn a 2k mini account in to 10k well it will probally blow up sooner your later.

turbo
  • #8
  • Jan 10, 2007 5:16pm Jan 10, 2007 5:16pm
Quoting hilmy83
actually I read the statement '90% of traders lose' is a conspiracy of the US government to sway people away from trading. This is from the wolfe wave website.I mean trading is a very lucrative business and it doesn't take a genius to make a lot of money just sitting at this computer all day. It's bad for the economy because it discourages people from undertaking specialization jobs like engineering, medicine, business, etc. i don't know
I don't believe the number personally. If you check out the corruption and types of people in that cesspool stock market, you'd see it doesn't exactly take much to make money there.
The problems I see are can you make "enough" money? Maybe I can make x percent per week, but is that more than I can get from working? What if I work during market hours? And in stocks, the more money you have to put down, the better the returns, but I assume the people who have the money, make more than I do in the market, and I'm low maintance.
It's not a black and white question of "blown accounts". It's how much is your time is worth. Also, if I blow my mini account, it's still less than I can lose in the other markets in the day. I'd rather blow $250 here than $500+ there.
That's why I like Forex. You have Asian, London, and New York sessions for time flexibilities. News traders, scalpers, swing traders. Daily set and forget trades, etc. It looks like it can fit all types of peoples.
I still don't know why they use statistics that try to chase you away from the market except for that conspiracy theory you give. Check out percentage of business's that fail, people who drop out of school, or more recently, how many houses get foreclosed in certain american cities with the housing bubble! Yikes.

At any rate, doing internet searches, it seems there's a lot of Russians that do Forex. I think there's a lot of middle eastern stock message boards too. And I'm sure there must be forums for Japan etc. Try to do a search for forex brokers in other countries and you'll get an idea of the scope. Just getting figures from Oneida or CMS isn't going to give a decent representation I believe. It's an interesting market. I enjoy looking for sites and research myself.
  • #9
  • Jan 10, 2007 8:13pm Jan 10, 2007 8:13pm
Thank you for that input Turbo and Techno.

I had a question about the auto trader systems I have been hearing about.
What do you guys think the reliability is on this type of system and how dependable can it be in the long run.

Is there any statistics on these types of trading techniques?

over and out,

christian99
  • #10
  • Jan 11, 2007 8:03pm Jan 11, 2007 8:03pm
Quoting hilmy83
actually I read the statement '90% of traders lose' is a conspiracy of the US government to sway people away from trading. This is from the wolfe wave website.I mean trading is a very lucrative business and it doesn't take a genius to make a lot of money just sitting at this computer all day. It's bad for the economy because it discourages people from undertaking specialization jobs like engineering, medicine, business, etc. i don't know
I never looked at it from this angle. Now that you brought it up maybe the majority of those 90% are people who open mini or micro accounts. Maybe those who open standard accounts do not lose that much. Just a guess you know.
  • #11
  • Jan 11, 2007 8:10pm Jan 11, 2007 8:10pm
Quoting christian99
Thank you for that input Turbo and Techno.

I had a question about the auto trader systems I have been hearing about.
What do you guys think the reliability is on this type of system and how dependable can it be in the long run.

Is there any statistics on these types of trading techniques?

over and out,

christian99
I believe a trader wins in this market if he/she uses a wise combination of all these elements: A profitable entry/exit strategy, proper money management techniques, risk management tools, psychology of trade, the ability to deal with broker manipulation and above all discipline. Unfortunately the majority of autotraders lack some or many of these elements. Many of them just focus on the first part. That's why most of what you see that are available to the public are loosers. It takes time and effort to build a reliable auto trading system. However, since I claim that I've written such system it's better to leave this discussio open to the rest of folks.
  • #12
  • Jan 11, 2007 8:14pm Jan 11, 2007 8:14pm
An article you might find interesting~IBFX states 49% of traders are profitable

http://www.interbankfx.com/PressRele...sRelease15.pdf
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #13
  • Jan 11, 2007 8:17pm Jan 11, 2007 8:17pm
Quoting summitfx
An article you might find interesting~IBFX states 49% of traders are profitable

http://www.interbankfx.com/PressRele...sRelease15.pdf
Thanks for sharing.
  • #14
  • Last Post: Sep 21, 2007 9:22pm Sep 21, 2007 9:22pm
Somehow I dont find that site that credible for a statistic like that. They want people to trade to earn comissions... I doubt that figure is 100% truthful.
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