Market Puzzles & Riddles...

Thanks for the reply. I found stats from BIS (Bank for International Settlements) and hope is useful to some who may have interest to know more in details about markets turnover.

Carry trades & Crude Oil price movement... a possible add-on confirmation?

But attachments feature not available now...unable to attach monthly charts for USDJPY; EURJPY; GBPJPY AND Crude Oil Daily...

I find this article pretty interesting... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9973fb0a-0...nclick_check=1

Lately I have this feeling... watching the markets are like watching soap opera... Checking the info from wiki and more I feel of the same characteristics between the two...

This article has a pretty good line: "Bottom line is people don't riot when all they want to do is speculate, they riot when they are hungry and cannot find or afford food to eat."

Market = Soap Opera = Puzzle Game = ???

Interesting thought... http://www.kitco.com/ind/West/apr182008.html

http://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2008/tr080508a.htm
http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2008/050808.htm

Britain is better off outside the euro


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5b04e654-2...nclick_check=1

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke

Remarks on Class Day 2008

At Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts


http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev...e20080604a.htm

".....The poor forecasting record of economists is legendary, but I will make a forecast in which I am very confident: Whatever you expect your life and work to be like 10, 20, or 30 years from now, the reality will be quite different........ You can only try to be as prepared as possible for the opportunities, as well as the disappointments, that will come your way. For people, as for economies, adaptability and flexibility count for a great deal...."

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blog...-of-china.aspx

....Chinese-Russian relations have historically been complex. Before World War II, the Soviets attempt to manipulate Chinese politics. After World War II, relations between the Soviet Union and China were never as good as some thought, and sometimes these relations became directly hostile, as in 1968, when Russian and Chinese troops fought a battle along the Ussuri River. The Russians have historically feared a Chinese move into their Pacific maritime provinces. The Chinese have feared a Russian move into Manchuria and beyond.....

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/f...200829abs.html

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev...n20080626a.htm
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blog...-guidance.aspx
http://www.safehaven.com/article-10607.htm

... Natural Resourcesower:Fiat Money=Boom & Bust Cycle...

If calling for a market crash, which should come first? Stock or Commodities? Stock Down = USD Down; Commodities (Crude Oil) Down = USD Up.. And seems to me crash on equities should prevail first has higher probabilities..

http://mises.org/story/3018

..... Today, the euro area economy is of a similar size to the United States (each accounts for roughly ¼ of world GDP, based on market exchange rates), its financial markets are deep and liquid (although not yet equivalent to that of the United States in this regard), and it accounts for a large share of world trade.5 6 Thus, while the dollar will not be replaced as the dominant international currency, it is quite likely that, eventually, the dollar will begin to share this role with the euro.....

Full script: http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2008/072208.htm

The magnitude of the recent movements is undercurrent building up.. Looks like USD is taking southern train ride soon but EU being cap at 1.6 again..Just a thought.. let see what will be cooking after the Olympic game.. If is a gradual USD strenthening, then is acceptable but is spiking move which sounds abnormal to me.. I do have a bias of USD strenthening in the 2nd half but the recent play make me puzzle again.. Safe haven currency play? With EUR=Oil or USD=Oil?

Which could be the possible scenario now???
Scene A: EURUSD up; Oil up (Hedge sentiment move?)
Scene B: EURUSD down; Oil down (Crash / Recession move?)
Scene C: EURUSD down; Oil up (safe haven currency sentiment move?)

Looks like is 2 against one scenario here..

Simple version: With Oil price expressed in USD, it, just like EURUSD, is often(not always) a gauge for the USD.

EURUSD and Oil have moved in parallels/tandem quite a bit lately, however once/the times they decouple, the more likely scenario is that despite EURUSD going down, Oil stays steady or goes up / down less, as there may be a more "natural" demand for Oil vs for the USD.

New riddle from Fed Ben: Dollar, commodities price trends to limit inflation..

So does it mean the decouple thing is not done yet? EUR=Oil is still on the run?

Guess bail out is unavoidable scenario..which may lead to "future" bigger crash?

http://mises.org/story/3038

While reading the article.. reminds me of the tower of babel.. (sorry a bit off topic but definetly bring impact should this great ambition to build such a tower appear again..not a good sign I believe..)

USD strength / weakness = "Cold/Hot" War probability?
EUR "decouple" from Oil; USD "recouple"?