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The Art of Trading with MTF Stochastics

  • #921
  • Jan 31, 2008 1:51am Jan 31, 2008 1:51am
Quoting marcin25
Hi
I was hurt very badly yesterday.look at the chart GJ,it was nice long entry signal and after I entered the price wnet down very quickly.Now I susupect it was because of reduction of interest rate in USA ,but I didnt see any annoucement in the schedule.
How do you know such important news are coming?
thank you .
Sorry you got burned Marcin, that sucks! Here are two rules for you to follow from now on -

1. Check this at the beginning of every week. http://forexfactory.com/calendar.php

2. NEVER EVER trade on the day of an interest rate decision, or the non-farms payroll report.

=)
  • #922
  • Jan 31, 2008 3:23am Jan 31, 2008 3:23am
thank you Ocelot for replay.
I always do check the www.forexfactory.com/calendar but yeaterday there was no information about interest rate statement.
thank you.
  • #923
  • Jan 31, 2008 5:21am Jan 31, 2008 5:21am
Quoting marcin25
thank you Ocelot for replay.
I always do check the www.forexfactory.com/calendar but yeaterday there was no information about interest rate statement.
thank you.

Here u go. Times are EST.
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  • #924
  • Jan 31, 2008 6:29am Jan 31, 2008 6:29am
yes ,I can see it today but yesteraday i think it wasnt there,anaway thank you.
that is my today trade for 10 pips as always.
It is kind of clasic escalator with 4 stoch pointing up,but not the perfect one as stochs didnt cross 20 line.anyway the move up was nice.
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  • #925
  • Jan 31, 2008 6:30am Jan 31, 2008 6:30am
..
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  • #926
  • Jan 31, 2008 8:17am Jan 31, 2008 8:17am
Stoch 9,3,3 is looking good.

price down close of daily pivot and 200sma. Stoch 9,3,3 pull back (aka elasticity) and V-turn.

I saw the signal late and exited too early. Caught 15 pips.
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  • #927
  • Jan 31, 2008 8:19am Jan 31, 2008 8:19am
Hi Marcin,

Sorry to hear about your bad luck yesterday!

Just want to confirm that the notice of interest rate statement was listed all week long.

NFP tomorrow morning, please be careful!



Quoting marcin25
Hi
I was hurt very badly yesterday.look at the chart GJ,it was nice long entry signal and after I entered the price wnet down very quickly.Now I susupect it was because of reduction of interest rate in USA ,but I didnt see any annoucement in the schedule.
How do you know such important news are coming?
thank you .
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #928
  • Edited 11:44am Jan 31, 2008 11:33am | Edited 11:44am
Marcin I've looked around and can't find the mtf stochastic indicator you are using on the charts. Could you post it please or send me to where I could get it. Thanks.
  • #929
  • Jan 31, 2008 3:28pm Jan 31, 2008 3:28pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=37176
just go there and download the indicator to your template.Spud explain how to do that.
OK,see you tomorrow
  • #930
  • Jan 31, 2008 3:34pm Jan 31, 2008 3:34pm
Thanks alot, Marcin I'm going to go look at it right now.
  • #931
  • Feb 1, 2008 4:06pm Feb 1, 2008 4:06pm
I wanted to know if anyone knew how much spudfrye or anyone risk on a single trade whether it be 2% or any other number. My reason for asking is I am torn between trading and trying to capture a certain percent over my risk, such as ratio of 1:2 or exit such as spudfrye does and at 20pips profit set stoploss to 7 and at 35 set stoploss to 14 etc. If anyone using these two ways of money management could give there insight. In analyzing the latter I feel that if someone risked ex. 2% being 80 pips and only aimed for 20 pips a day by the end of the week considering everyday they obtained the 20 pips, they would only have increased there account by 2.25% for the week. Not that this isn't an accomplishment, cause I'm still trying to be that consistent but I wanted to know if this is the thinking behind it.
  • #932
  • Feb 1, 2008 4:46pm Feb 1, 2008 4:46pm
Nelson,

For the record, I don't frankly believe in the commonly accepted risk:reward method of setting my SL. It seems a rather illogical way to locate a safe price point. Instead, I set my SL at some point on the other side of pivots, support, resistance, highest recent candle, etc., where I feel it is not likely to be hit (and if it is, then I definitely want out), or at some price where I simply feel I would no longer want to be in the trade. I set my TP to a price that I feel is realistic and will be easily accomplished, and often jump out earlier, if retracement occurs while I am in profit. Often, my TP is much smaller than my SL.

I generally keep my risk to a maximum of 2% of my account per trade, so if my SL must be placed behind a pivot that is very far away, I will lower my lot size in order to accommodate the amount of money I am willing to risk on that trade. In other words, if my account is, say, $10,000, I will only risk $200 max. If I have to place my SL 100 pips away from my entry, I can only play for $2 per pip, or two minilots. If my SL is placed 20 pips away, then I can play for $10 per pip, or one full lot (10 minilots).

For me, SL has no relationship to TP. One is for safety (or the limit of my tolerance), the other is for profit. I am unable to relate the two. They do not need to correlate in any way, as far as I'm concerned.

Use caution, don't follow blindly what others do; find your own comfort zone, and keep your risk low enough that you will survive a big losing streak if you have to.

Hope that helps.

Quoting nelson7
I wanted to know if anyone knew how much spudfrye or anyone risk on a single trade whether it be 2% or any other number. My reason for asking is I am torn between trading and trying to capture a certain percent over my risk, such as ratio of 1:2 or exit such as spudfrye does and at 20pips profit set stoploss to 7 and at 35 set stoploss to 14 etc. If anyone using these two ways of money management could give there insight. In analyzing the latter I feel that if someone risked ex. 2% being 80 pips and only aimed for 20 pips a day by the end of the week considering everyday they obtained the 20 pips, they would only have increased there account by 2.25% for the week. Not that this isn't an accomplishment, cause I'm still trying to be that consistent but I wanted to know if this is the thinking behind it.
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #933
  • Feb 1, 2008 10:28pm Feb 1, 2008 10:28pm
K2KV,

I also agree with setting the sl at support/resistance and risking 2% on each trade no matter how many pips away the sl is from entry. The only part I cant seem to get over is if we don't try to capture lets say at least a 1:1 ratio then our system would have to produce many wins compared to losses as one loss would wipe out our previous profits.

ex.

risk profit %profit
trade 1 80 8 .20%

trade2 40 20 1%

trade 3 60 0 -2%

trade 4 50 50 2%

trade 5 50 10 .40%

trade 6 30 0 -2%

trade 7 50 10 .40%

0% increase of account.

In other words if system is highy correct then hi risk/lo reward mm ok. But if reward is not allowed to run then winners may not cover losers.

I am only demo trading now until I can be consistent. How are you trading stochastics right now and are you able to have consistent wins? Thanks.
Just throwing these thoughts around and any advice is appreciated.
  • #934
  • Feb 2, 2008 10:30am Feb 2, 2008 10:30am
Nelson,

Yes, that is correct. My goal is to have many more wins than losses

To answer your questions, I trade a variety of methods, including mtf stochs, and am still in the learning/exploring stages. I usually trade a real account but, since I've recently experienced a string of losses, I've gone back to demo for two weeks, in order to work out my issues.

Good trading to you...

Quoting nelson7
K2KV,

I also agree with setting the sl at support/resistance and risking 2% on each trade no matter how many pips away the sl is from entry. The only part I cant seem to get over is if we don't try to capture lets say at least a 1:1 ratio then our system would have to produce many wins compared to losses as one loss would wipe out our previous profits.

ex.

risk profit %profit
trade 1 80 8 .20%

trade2 40 20 1%

trade 3 60 0 -2%

trade 4 50 50 2%

trade 5 50 10 .40%

trade 6 30 0 -2%

trade 7 50 10 .40%

0% increase of account.

In other words if system is highy correct then hi risk/lo reward mm ok. But if reward is not allowed to run then winners may not cover losers.

I am only demo trading now until I can be consistent. How are you trading stochastics right now and are you able to have consistent wins? Thanks.
Just throwing these thoughts around and any advice is appreciated.
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #935
  • Feb 2, 2008 2:42pm Feb 2, 2008 2:42pm
I agree the common way of setting a Stop loss is to use pivots or support/resistance and of course trendlines, if however you are on a longer time frame and a pivot is a long way of and you feel uncomfortable with the trade reaching that pivot you can calculate the Average Daily Range and set your Stop loss at half of the figure, this will also work for setting targets...You would open two lots with the first target at 50% of the ADR and the second with a SL at 50% and the target at 100% of the ADR..


Glenn
  • #936
  • Feb 5, 2008 6:03am Feb 5, 2008 6:03am
Last few hours there were lot of movement. I read the forum...many have caught the move. Congrate!

me caught one too

entry -
D1 stoch moving up.
h4 stoch elasticity.
h1 U-turn + kind of W bottom.
Price up close of 200sma
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  • #937
  • Feb 5, 2008 10:45am Feb 5, 2008 10:45am
Anybody seen Kris's blog lately, not doing too bad... 2000 grand to 22000 grand.

Quoting kris
Why are people chasing small pips with MTF Stochs? Most of my trades easily yield 40pips gain. I am having great success with MTF stochs. I have made 20 trades, only 1 was a failure. And I earned 3k using a 2k account!

Please comment on my trades, help me improve on it. They are all posted on my blog

INVESTKRIS
  • #938
  • Feb 6, 2008 5:09am Feb 6, 2008 5:09am
Heres my 10 pips for the day, took 2 trades, one on the GBPJPY and USDJPY.

Here's the USDJPY, the first oval entered and second oval TP of 10 pips, on demo.

Could have gone for more, 20/25 pips, but was happy with 10pips!

I am now getting the hang of this system.

5min stoch going up
15min stoch turned up
30 min stoch flat at the time
60 min stoch going up

i will try and post my 10 pips a day, starting today.

regards,
guess
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  • #939
  • Feb 6, 2008 12:02pm Feb 6, 2008 12:02pm
As we speak... great setup and +3pips... this has steam and should go some... but I am in for a good 10 pips... was in middle of something... and now it has hit tp of 10pips... around 40pips for the day... not too bad... standard lots, would have been £400... now that would have been nice! But am still getting to grips with the system, gave up on it a while ago, but getting the hang off it... don't force trades, let the trades come to you.

regards,
guess
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  • #940
  • Feb 6, 2008 12:27pm Feb 6, 2008 12:27pm
Hi Guess,

Thanks for posting your recent trades! Three stochs in the same direction is usually a safe setup, and is truly the essence of Multiple Time Frame stochastics.

It would be great to see your 10 pips daily posted here -- keep up the good work!



Quoting guess121
As we speak... great setup and +3pips... this has steam and should go some... but I am in for a good 10 pips... was in middle of something... and now it has hit tp of 10pips... around 40pips for the day... not too bad... standard lots, would have been £400... now that would have been nice! But am still getting to grips with the system, gave up on it a while ago, but getting the hang off it... don't force trades, let the trades come to you.

regards,
guess
Jeff Singer, K2KV
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