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Unemployment Rate - Risky?

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 1, 2008 6:00am Feb 1, 2008 6:00am
Hello,

A combination of Friday being the 1st day of the month and the big gap in the expected rate for the unemployment rate from 18K => ~65K.. Do you think it will be risky to enter the market based on this forecast? Shall we maybe wait to see the initial reflection of the news before entering?

Any suggestions are more than welcome, Thanks in advance.
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  • #2
  • Feb 1, 2008 6:45am Feb 1, 2008 6:45am
Non Farm Payroll.. is the biggest of All..

It will move everything 150-200 Pips atleast.
  • #3
  • Feb 1, 2008 6:58am Feb 1, 2008 6:58am
where is your stop loss? safe might be 4850!?
/ ... clarifying decisions ... /
  • #4
  • Feb 1, 2008 6:59am Feb 1, 2008 6:59am
I'm amazed to see there's people happy with a 50/50 gamble.


Amazing traders!
  • #5
  • Feb 1, 2008 7:07am Feb 1, 2008 7:07am
it is a very risky day to trade...

I am expecting a sudden movement to northern direction on yen pairs and a straight fall after that. We might loose a lot and earn a lot today. Thats why it is important to use a tight SL. Do not forget that at a day of high velocity none of the brokers can guarantee that the SL will be hit.. So stay on your butts and look for the market. If the order is going bad do not hesitate to close it even before SL is hit.

Eurusd might sky rocket to 1.50 today. ıt is likely to see a 50 pip gap right after the news release if the news are bad for US.
Honestly the optimism for this months numbers are high but i dont believe 60k is logical.. I am just holding a short position from USDJPY for sometime. Otherwise I would not enter the market at this moment.
  • #6
  • Feb 1, 2008 7:12am Feb 1, 2008 7:12am
better await for the NFP, then decide what to trade
"Abandon all hope, you who enter here" La Divina Commedia, Dante Alighieri
  • #7
  • Feb 1, 2008 7:43am Feb 1, 2008 7:43am
Thanks everybody,
Here's a brief of the stupid move i did, was very nice to see happening.


Market was at 1.4885 a second before the news, i placed a BUY-STOP for 1.0 lot at 1.4900 with a S/L at 1.4850 and T/P at 1.4950.. Guess what?

Order executed in and out with a few seconds with some nice cash pocketed

Good luck and thanks again
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  • #8
  • Feb 1, 2008 7:46am Feb 1, 2008 7:46am
You are a moron, but congrats on your successful trade.
  • #9
  • Feb 1, 2008 7:47am Feb 1, 2008 7:47am
Vegas is losing clients due to online trading, IMO.
  • #10
  • Feb 1, 2008 7:47am Feb 1, 2008 7:47am
Quoting Bernanke_Sr
it is a very risky day to trade...

I am expecting a sudden movement to northern direction on yen pairs and a straight fall after that. We might loose a lot and earn a lot today. Thats why it is important to use a tight SL. Do not forget that at a day of high velocity none of the brokers can guarantee that the SL will be hit.. So stay on your butts and look for the market. If the order is going bad do not hesitate to close it even before SL is hit.

Eurusd might sky rocket to 1.50 today. ıt is likely to see a 50 pip gap right after the news release if the news are bad for US.
Honestly the optimism for this months numbers are high but i dont believe 60k is logical.. I am just holding a short position from USDJPY for sometime. Otherwise I would not enter the market at this moment.

Damnn. I hate to be the best trader in ForexFactory and possibly one of the top 10 all over the world

I wonder if its time to swtich my Bmw M6 to a Ferrari or at least a Maseratti... hmmmmmm.. I will create a poll
  • #11
  • Feb 1, 2008 7:48am Feb 1, 2008 7:48am
Euro goes one way, Pound the other, not often you see that off US news. Massive revision of last months NFP from 18 to 82k. How can they get it so wrong? Reeks of some currency-puppeteering by the fed.
  • #12
  • Feb 1, 2008 7:53am Feb 1, 2008 7:53am
If the NFP number was a negitve number then how come the dollar strengthened....

This might be a newbie question.....but what the heck.....
It's All About Attitude ...
  • #13
  • Feb 1, 2008 7:53am Feb 1, 2008 7:53am
Quoting brendanh
Euro goes one way, Pound the other, not often you see that off US news. Massive revision of last months NFP from 18 to 82k. How can they get it so wrong? Reeks of some currency-puppeteering by the fed.
That was the strangest thing really, maybe because of the high resistance levels of the pound around 1.99ees
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  • #14
  • Feb 1, 2008 7:56am Feb 1, 2008 7:56am
Quoting bobblong
You are a moron, but congrats on your successful trade.
Begging for an explanation, otherwise a sorry please (!)
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  • #15
  • Edited 8:20am Feb 1, 2008 8:08am | Edited 8:20am
Quoting abuzant
Begging for an explanation, otherwise a sorry please (!)

The thing about this particular news item is that on every release, the previous number is revised, so making the forecast = meaningless and even if the news is not revised, most of us do not have the knowledge to actually know how the news will be perceived. This results in "surprises" like Figure X is supposed to be Bullish for whatever currency but then you get exactly the opposite move of what you expected, because due to WHATEVER economic factor, the released figure was perceived by people with a lot more knowledge and resources than you or I, differently. You know there are computers that respond and analyze news feeds and act accordingly within a split second with direct connections to brokers? Over time this trade will probably not make you money. You got lucky this time. Another possibility would be that your trade would be triggered, go 5 pips in your favor, then return and hit your stop. Another scenario is that it would trigger your trade, and then go the other way, while forgetting about your stop and continuing without mercy to go against you.

It's your money, if this is acceptable risk to you, great! This is just from my experience and I've burned small pieces from my account trying to be smarter than the news.

PS: It says in your profile you have more than 5 years of experience behind you yet you're asking in a public forum whether people think it's safe to enter before the news or not? Strange.
  • #16
  • Feb 1, 2008 8:15am Feb 1, 2008 8:15am
Quoting abuzant
Thanks everybody,
Here's a brief of the stupid move i did, was very nice to see happening.


Market was at 1.4885 a second before the news, i placed a BUY-STOP for 1.0 lot at 1.4900 with a S/L at 1.4850 and T/P at 1.4950.. Guess what?

Order executed in and out with a few seconds with some nice cash pocketed

Good luck and thanks again

1 lot, you mean mini lot or standard lot ?
  • #17
  • Feb 1, 2008 8:22am Feb 1, 2008 8:22am
bobblong => Thanks for the informative post; will consider next time..

Quote
1 lot, you mean mini lot or standard lot ?
I guess 1.0 = standard, 0.1 = mini, right?
I went for 1.0 Standard
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  • #18
  • Feb 1, 2008 8:49am Feb 1, 2008 8:49am
Quoting Billser
If the NFP number was a negitve number then how come the dollar strengthened....

This might be a newbie question.....but what the heck.....
The revise number was very good and the released minus number shows the economy is closely (or in) a contraction phase.
This sends trade desk into bond from equities and riskier assets and to be able to buy bonds you need dollars.

How we say, trade desk don't buy dollars because they wan't them, but because they need it, in order to buy bonds
"Abandon all hope, you who enter here" La Divina Commedia, Dante Alighieri
  • #19
  • Feb 1, 2008 9:05am Feb 1, 2008 9:05am
Quoting abuzant
bobblong => Thanks for the informative post; will consider next time..


I guess 1.0 = standard, 0.1 = mini, right?
I went for 1.0 Standard

Thats good.. a nice good profit for the day...
What was your Initial Capital though for account..
x,xxx or xx,xxx ?
  • #20
  • Feb 1, 2008 9:06am Feb 1, 2008 9:06am
mmm... Seems i lost my something.. What is happening in the markets guys? Where to?
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