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Why are asians buying EUROs these days? 4 replies

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Clever Asians

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 31, 2008 2:16am Jan 31, 2008 2:16am
I have been noticing since many days , weeks..
Thats Asians buy very heavily take the price way up.. And then like good boy bring the price just right in HALF Levels..
Of the Days Low and Days High.. And let Europeans to decide, to take it up or to take it down.. Lolz.. this is FUN..
  • #2
  • Jan 31, 2008 2:31am Jan 31, 2008 2:31am
Quoting jacobtrader
I have been noticing since many days , weeks..
Thats Asians buy very heavily take the price way up.. And then like good boy bring the price just right in HALF Levels..
Of the Days Low and Days High.. And let Europeans to decide, to take it up or to take it down.. Lolz.. this is FUN..
what?
  • #3
  • Jan 31, 2008 2:37am Jan 31, 2008 2:37am
Quoting jacobtrader
I have been noticing since many days , weeks..
Thats Asians buy very heavily take the price way up.. And then like good boy bring the price just right in HALF Levels..
Of the Days Low and Days High.. And let Europeans to decide, to take it up or to take it down.. Lolz.. this is FUN..
  • #4
  • Jan 31, 2008 2:47am Jan 31, 2008 2:47am
haha.. you guys didnt get, didnt you.. Lolz..
Its ok..

Well what i meant was, In the beginning of Asian time, EUR/USD was low 1.4824 levels
GBP/uSD was low around 1.9831

Now they went all the way highs at 1.4913 for EUR/USD and 1.9909 for GBP/USD

Just 1 hour left opening for Europe. they bring the price in HALF Levels of the Low and Highs done in Asian trade.. They want Europeans to signal whether to take the Pair to the top.. or push it down..

A nice Systematic move..
  • #5
  • Jan 31, 2008 3:48am Jan 31, 2008 3:48am
jacobtrader my whole statistical research is based on things like this and you are very close to a very sharp edge I suggest you study your findings rigorously, manually with Excel over the whole of 2006/2007 and come up with a a gameplan so you know exactly how to trade it.

My studies are based on GBP/JPY and I now have a setup with probabilities out of this world with optimised settings.

Have fun and expect "whattt?? huhhh?" lots of times lol.
  • #6
  • Jan 31, 2008 3:51am Jan 31, 2008 3:51am
Quoting jacobtrader
haha.. you guys didnt get, didnt you.. Lolz..
Its ok..

Well what i meant was, In the beginning of Asian time, EUR/USD was low 1.4824 levels
GBP/uSD was low around 1.9831

Now they went all the way highs at 1.4913 for EUR/USD and 1.9909 for GBP/USD

Just 1 hour left opening for Europe. they bring the price in HALF Levels of the Low and Highs done in Asian trade.. They want Europeans to signal whether to take the Pair to the top.. or push it down..

A nice Systematic move..

I did... Based on my command....
"IT'S GOING TO BE LIKE COMING INTO THE JUNGLE" - K G
  • #7
  • Jan 31, 2008 4:06am Jan 31, 2008 4:06am
Quoting jacobtrader
I have been noticing since many days , weeks..
Thats Asians buy very heavily take the price way up.. And then like good boy bring the price just right in HALF Levels..
Of the Days Low and Days High.. And let Europeans to decide, to take it up or to take it down.. Lolz.. this is FUN..

I noticed something similar like that myself, especially on G/J - Asia often corrects the day's move.
  • #8
  • Jan 31, 2008 4:09am Jan 31, 2008 4:09am
Asia is full of investment funds that love buying the USD.. and shorting the Yen basically. Remember, they are the main guys who have easy access to borrowing the Yen at low interest rates. Even Japan's postal company apparently is heavily invested in carry trades.

So it's usually no surprise.. that Asian markets tend to propel UJ, GJ, etc. (of course there are exceptions during certain times.. but mostly this is what happens)
  • #9
  • Jan 31, 2008 4:27am Jan 31, 2008 4:27am
interesting.....

lets have some more observations & see how to pips from it...

cheers...

-willie-
  • #10
  • Feb 1, 2008 12:57am Feb 1, 2008 12:57am
I know it didn't come across with the greatest of ease in the translation,
but I think I almost understood what he meant to say, which was:

He noticed a pattern that during the asian session a 50% retracement of the session range was observed
by or before the begining of the european session. Then, the trend for the remainder of the day was determined by
the action during the Europe trades. No mention of the effect of the New York session was made, however.

Now, the question is: Is there evidence of or can it be demonstrated that there is or is not a statistical probablity
that this occurs X percent of the time? How often ? What about the 61.8 ? What about the average number of pips ?
All those stats. Very powerful stuff.

Me likey
  • #11
  • Feb 1, 2008 1:26am Feb 1, 2008 1:26am
Most of the big moves lately have been initiated during the NY session, since all eyes are on the Fed and USD. Asia, on the other hand has seen traders jumping in to "correct" these moves. It happened again this past session (50% retraces of the NY moves across the board as far as carry trades are concerned.)

Good observation jacob. Don't let the doubters grind you down .
  • #12
  • Feb 1, 2008 1:50am Feb 1, 2008 1:50am
One could compare it to an MT4 backtested equity curve lol!
  • #13
  • Feb 1, 2008 2:22am Feb 1, 2008 2:22am
Quoting toshi
I know it didn't come across with the greatest of ease in the translation,
but I think I almost understood what he meant to say, which was:

He noticed a pattern that during the asian session a 50% retracement of the session range was observed
by or before the begining of the european session. Then, the trend for the remainder of the day was determined by
the action during the Europe trades. No mention of the effect of the New York session was made, however.

Now, the question is: Is there evidence of or can it be demonstrated that there is or is not a statistical probablity
that this occurs X percent of the time? How often ? What about the 61.8 ? What about the average number of pips ?
All those stats. Very powerful stuff.

Me likey
Yes these stats exist, but you didn't bother doing any of these studies so you just want somebody else's results and conclusions, therefore you get to sit there with ya willy in ya nilly while others harvest
  • #14
  • Feb 1, 2008 3:22am Feb 1, 2008 3:22am
I like my willy right where it is, Thank you. (would you like to know where it is ?)

Seriously though, Bobblong I was hoping you'd chime in.
Your mention of statistical analysis was what caused me to throw my 2 pips in.

Actually, This IS the stuff I like to pour over. Statistically, how many times this that or the other .

One of my favorite threads in this forum came from Goodthings last year:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=27624
and delt very deep into the statistical approach to trading daily range price action and the subsequent retracement
levels attained by the close of that day or the next day's action (cut-off 5PM EST New York cut).

Some of the stats actually run into the high 90% probabily range,
such as with the 23.6% and 80%+ for 38% retracements that day or the next.
To this I've added some pivots and Time-of-Day parameters to entry/exit criteria
and am still amazed at how often statistical trading will show a positive expectancy.

But one caveat I found, both through backtesting and live trading of statistics
is that when something is 90% probable, the 10% will eat your ass.
So a hard stop is mandatory.

Also, since statistical retracements are just that - retracements and by definition are retracing against the trend,
trading them will usually mean trading counter trend and that's not for the feeble folks.

Many of the statistically high probable retracements come quickly, come against the trend and if the ATR of
the pair is <100 pips, it can amount to <20 pips. So there are limits there too.

But, obviously you know that the reduction of risk comes from the statistically high probabilty
that the mkt will do this that or the other. So even when it doesnt do it,
your exit plan will keep your ass from being eaten. More risk reduction.

And there are so many statistics (and cycles too) that specializing in a certain rule set and
a particular pair helps prevent statistical information overload. Too much data.

So I really don't know how cleaver the asians are this week. Probably would be a good idea to keep an eye on them.

Now if you don't mind, I have to get my willy back in my nilly. It's gotten cold whilst I was writing to you.

cheers
  • #15
  • Feb 1, 2008 3:27am Feb 1, 2008 3:27am
i wonder why is it GJ.

isn't GJ a cross currency? The price of GJ is determined by the movements of UJ and GU. Correct me if im wrong or missing anything here
  • #16
  • Feb 1, 2008 3:51am Feb 1, 2008 3:51am
Quoting toshi
I like my willy right where it is, Thank you. (would you like to know where it is ?)

Seriously though, Bobblong I was hoping you'd chime in.
Your mention of statistical analysis was what caused me to throw my 2 pips in.

Actually, This IS the stuff I like to pour over. Statistically, how many times this that or the other .

One of my favorite threads in this forum came from Goodthings last year:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=27624
and delt very deep into the statistical approach to trading daily range price action and the subsequent retracement
levels attained by the close of that day or the next day's action (cut-off 5PM EST New York cut).

Some of the stats actually run into the high 90% probabily range,
such as with the 23.6% and 80%+ for 38% retracements that day or the next.
To this I've added some pivots and Time-of-Day parameters to entry/exit criteria
and am still amazed at how often statistical trading will show a positive expectancy.

But one caveat I found, both through backtesting and live trading of statistics
is that when something is 90% probable, the 10% will eat your ass.
So a hard stop is mandatory.

Also, since statistical retracements are just that - retracements and by definition are retracing against the trend,
trading them will usually mean trading counter trend and that's not for the feeble folks.

Many of the statistically high probable retracements come quickly, come against the trend and if the ATR of
the pair is <100 pips, it can amount to <20 pips. So there are limits there too.

But, obviously you know that the reduction of risk comes from the statistically high probabilty
that the mkt will do this that or the other. So even when it doesnt do it,
your exit plan will keep your ass from being eaten. More risk reduction.

And there are so many statistics (and cycles too) that specializing in a certain rule set and
a particular pair helps prevent statistical information overload. Too much data.

So I really don't know how cleaver the asians are this week. Probably would be a good idea to keep an eye on them.

Now if you don't mind, I have to get my willy back in my nilly. It's gotten cold whilst I was writing to you.

cheers

Teeeheeee! Good post.

Right, so you are on the right track, you know what is the probability of X retracement.. this is great but oh so useless overall, without knowing WHAT HAPPENS after this level is reached. Goodthings has done great and thorough studies on fibonacci, but his studies do not tell us what is the most probable activity to follow when a level is hit. Is it- breach? Stall? Bounce? How high? Pierce and return? On which day is x most probable? Are there elements of confluence to increase or decrease the probability of x due to the fractal nature of the market? Which direction is price approaching this level? What we really want to know is what happens, over a large data set at X level (e.g 50% of previous day GMT) Forget the concept of trend for a minute, think about reaction point. Now if you were to know that at X% (time based (previous day, week, month, year), i.e totally objective way of drawing this level rather than "swing" which is subjective and unsuitable for this sort of study) price does WHAT and what and how frequently, you would come up with optimal settings which give you high probability trades, amazingly with a great reward to risk albeit the results are historical but are very very consistent!. I'll drop 1 hint. between 4th of Jan 2007 and 31 Dec 2007, the stats provided a triple digit number of entries.


Bob
  • #17
  • Feb 1, 2008 7:10am Feb 1, 2008 7:10am
as a notice, US session has the tendency to reverse the european session.
"Abandon all hope, you who enter here" La Divina Commedia, Dante Alighieri
  • #18
  • Feb 1, 2008 7:23am Feb 1, 2008 7:23am
Quoting toshi
I
Actually, This IS the stuff I like to pour over. Statistically, how many times this that or the other .

cheers
Did you mean "pore" over, or really "pour" over. I mean, nothing like a shot or two while doing analysis or programming in the evening, hehehe

cheers1
  • #19
  • Feb 1, 2008 8:22am Feb 1, 2008 8:22am
One thing I wonder about is session cut-off times. The typical one is NY close at 22 GMT. Which would mean the day starts at 22GMT as well, the Sydney opens right as NY closes.

However, it seems some people consider 0 GMT, Tokyo open, to be the start of the day? This affects your high and low values, so some uniformity would be nice. I'm just assuming the MOST traders use 22GMt as the start/stop point.
  • #20
  • Feb 1, 2008 8:24am Feb 1, 2008 8:24am
I found GMT most effective for GBP/JPY
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