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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #1,161
  • Jan 31, 2008 5:23pm Jan 31, 2008 5:23pm
Quoting leighsww
Well, ever since you've taught me your system, I haven't had much losses (especially due to rescuing bad trades and turning them into good ones). The only reason for any losses previously, was due to having to exit trades that I couldn't stay up into the wee hours of the morning to finish (but that should not be the problem anymore now with EUR/JPY as my pair to trade).

Since I've had good winning trades, my commission on my past two days of trading has only been approx. 5% of my profits, so I figure that's fair enough to give my broker. I am willing to give up to 10% - 15% on my profits, so if I'm making $$, I'm not going to worry about giving 5% - 10% to them ... they have to make their money, too

I also just don't want to have to move to another broker right now, especially since I don't know who the heck I would move to. Not to mention, I'd have to start all over with getting used to their platform, etc.

Anyway, if such time comes when I will need to find a new broker, I was hoping that you would have found the one for you and let me know, haha :

Also, if you're trading huge lot sizes and frequently, you can contact EFX and negotiate for a better commission rate. You might want to try that.
Leighsww,
your position is noted, just felt tht I should sound out.
i do understand that for small players its non issue .
moreover seem efx services seems ok and you are very comfortable with their platform.
their booking FiFO, net is professional like in spot FX unlike most books, too troublesome in their accounting. so bros a minus but business model seems a plus for now. But over time bro does build up for size.
I wouldn't want to do double standards in aking for bro discount, if they condone that then not so cutomer friendly.
Size shouldn't matter to them too much.
Moreover I am not willing to show hand to tell them who I am, when they find out then its time for me to move on. Retired people don't like to live in houses on the hill, attracts too much unnecessaries.If you catch the drift.

regards
  • #1,162
  • Jan 31, 2008 5:28pm Jan 31, 2008 5:28pm
sold 1 GBP @1.9899
sign off for a moment , switching computer.
  • #1,163
  • Jan 31, 2008 5:38pm Jan 31, 2008 5:38pm
Quoting fti
Retired people don't like to live in houses on the hill, attracts too much unnecessaries.If you catch the drift.
regards
So who are you fti? I'm sure even if you told me I still wouldn't know.

I thought living on top of hills is good Feng Shui!

I have to admit it's hard to just dance without analysing. Why did you add another cable short? Do you think another sweep just occured? I can see some technical reasons, both on EUR and cable.

Leigh, please feel free to answer any of the questions above.
  • #1,164
  • Jan 31, 2008 5:47pm Jan 31, 2008 5:47pm
Quoting Zoran
So who are you fti? I'm sure even if you told me I still wouldn't know.

I thought living on top of hills is good Feng Shui!

I have to admit it's hard to just dance without analysing. Why did you add another cable short? Do you think another sweep just occured? I can see some technical reasons, both on EUR and cable.

Leigh, please feel free to answer any of the questions above.
@ zoran
the reason is tokyo is back in the game.
we were playing with the twinlight guys after NY went off.
So the tokyo boys may like to test the range resolve again.
orders are still relatively sparce , some are just begining to move over to tokyo, not all americans dealers are so hardcore.
So lets watch the new dance begining to unfold.

much of the underlying is unchanged. but probably USD yen should be more aggressive. Lets watch when the boys come on in full swing.

ah, the sweet smell of coffee!!
  • #1,165
  • Jan 31, 2008 5:55pm Jan 31, 2008 5:55pm
Quoting fti
sold 1 GBP @1.9899
sign off for a moment , switching computer.
FTI been reading and enjoying your approach to teaching and trading. About brokers have you take a look at dukascopy they are an ecn that I'm very pleased with http://www.dukascopy.com/
  • #1,166
  • Edited 6:16pm Jan 31, 2008 5:59pm | Edited 6:16pm
Quoting fti
@ Leighsww,
Regarding the romancing of the 3 kingdoms,its new to you, as your training was at stage one then.
You were taught how to dance properly with elementary MM.
So do catch up on the progress.
The romance is essential for proper managing.
Notice how it kept the position in the battle, when all was lost from the onset.
Other wise re-analysis would have taken us out esp the EUR position.
I guess being stopped out on Eur wouldn'[t be too bad from hindsight,
but the resilience was necessary.
In other scenerios of market gyration, it will prove critical. That you may be able to see when you are more experienced.

regards
LOL, okay, guess I better get caught up.

But, you once said to not do like you, but to do better than you (I'm not implying that I'm doing better than you, haha, but I'm quoting what you said which I took to mean that we don't have to do exactly as you, lol .

You also said that there are no rules, so if for me just concentrating on ONE kingdom/pair is giving me successful trades with little to no stress (hey, I'm becoming a very good dancer, hehe) ... can't I just be happy with taking care of my one li'l ol' kingdom?

There are some things that I don't want to be like you, fti ... mainly, why you had health problems when you were trading for the banks, so there's not going to be everything that I will do the same as you, you know :

Anyway, I will do as you say and read back on the "romancing 3 kingdoms" lessons to get caught up. If it has a big influence on MM, then I will learn it, as you insist. If it does not though, can I debate that further with you? : (just kidding, I won't need to debate it unless I feel it's detrimental in some way, but I'll just stick to what I'm doing, but I surely won't get in the way of your teaching others this, as others may find much value in it for themselves).

Quoting pipmaster
Wow, you're generous. That seems high to me. I have a fixed 3 pip spread on EUR/JPY.
LOL, well hopefully the percentage I'm paying out will stay relatively small (single digit ... cuz, going into double digit means that I'm not making large enough wins). So far (since using fti's method), I have been very happy with the profitable results and the smaller commission percentage I'm paying out now, compared to what I used to pay out prior to learning his method.

I don't feel that 5% is all that high, but if you're doing better, that's GREAT!

Quoting Zoran
Leigh, please feel free to answer any of the questions above.
Oooooh no, I'm not disclosing fti's real identity. Sheesh, Minnie Mouse will have a fit if she knew her hubby was posting here!! ACK, did I just give you away, fti?
  • #1,167
  • Jan 31, 2008 6:16pm Jan 31, 2008 6:16pm
Quoting leighsww
LOL, okay, guess I better get caught up.

But, you once said to not do like you, but to do better than you (not that I'm doing better than you, haha, but I'm quoting what you said which I took to mean that we don't have to do exactly as you, lol .

You also said that there are no rules, so if for me just concentrating on ONE kingdom/pair is giving me successful trades with little to no stress (hey, I'm becoming a very good dancer, hehe) ... can't I just be happy with taking care of my one li'l ol' kingdom?

There are some things that I don't want to be like you, fti ... mainly, why you had health problems when you were trading for the banks, so there's not going to be everything that I will do the same as you, you know :

Anyway, I will do as you say and read back on the "romancing 3 kingdoms" lessons to get caught up. If it has a big influence on MM, then I will learn it, as you insist. If it does not though, can I debate that further with you? : (just kidding, I won't need to debate it unless I feel it's detrimental in some way, but I'll just stick to what I'm doing, but I surely won't get in the way of your teaching others this, as others may find much value in it for themselves).



LOL, well hopefully the percentage I'm paying out will stay relatively small (single digit ... cuz, going into double digit means that I'm not making large enough wins). So far (since using fti's method), I have been very happy with the profitable results and the smaller commission percentage I'm paying out now, compared to what I used to pay out prior to learning his method.

I don't feel that 5% is all that high, but if you're doing better, that's GREAT!



Oooooh no, I'm not disclosing fti's real name. Sheesh, Minnie Mouse will have a fit if she knew her hubby was posting here!! ACK, did I just give you away, fti?

Leighsww,
Ok noted, but really don't be like me.
I'm too into the mkts, alittle crazy I agree.

But really this is how real pros do it, we are a little crazy.
always burn out candle both ends.
Can't change bad habits. But the money makes it worthwhile I guess.

Do this regularly , then listen to those gurus teaching , break here buy or divergence sell. and you know how much they know.
This is blood , sweat ,tears money.
then when someone like kervael goes astray, they wanna hang him.
poor chap.

Ohaiyogozaimusu, buddies, where's you going today?
By the way any one fainted already?

Sold 3 @ 1.4861
  • #1,168
  • Jan 31, 2008 6:19pm Jan 31, 2008 6:19pm
fti has only just touched on the three kingdoms. He said he would go over it after AOW. Still one lesson left there as far as I'm aware. Almost bed time here... looks like the EUR rescue will have to wait.
  • #1,169
  • Edited 6:47pm Jan 31, 2008 6:28pm | Edited 6:47pm
Position recap
s1 1.4833
s1 1.4838
s3 1.4849
s3 1.4857
s3 1.4861

s1 1.9884
s1 1.9899

and may I erase yesterdays chat now please.
If you want to you should print it now

wrong horse
USDYEN moving
Zoran, noway for me to let those babies be unattended.
if you must you must.

Who was it that said.

"one of the worst things in life was
to go to bed and sleep not,
and to wait for some one or some thing that comes not"
  • #1,170
  • Jan 31, 2008 6:47pm Jan 31, 2008 6:47pm
Quoting fti
and may I erase yesterdays chat now please.
If you want to you should print it now
I have it printed out but I missed following along live due to time zone which is a shame, I'll try to decipher it later today, thank you very much for your efforts.
  • #1,171
  • Edited 8:13pm Jan 31, 2008 7:21pm | Edited 8:13pm
Hi,
critical up sweep noted,
watching shadow significance now
bot 2 GBP @ 1.9919
Nothing in GBP due to GBP on up ranged in tight congedtion , testing top

possible up zone testing in EUR.

up sweep non significant
awaiting down sweep for directions
possitions are still maintained
market gone slow dancing
now market testing support
technically insignificant, with trader short EUr
Volatility is slow to crawl , no change in position for now
its a long long day
  • #1,172
  • Jan 31, 2008 8:07pm Jan 31, 2008 8:07pm
Quoting fti
Hi,
critical up sweep noted,
watching shadow significance now
bot 2 GBP @ 1.9919
Nothing in GBP due to GBP on up ranged in tight congedtion , testing top

possible up zone testing in EUR.

Hello fti,

what does "bot" mean in the above?

Thanks.
bl
  • #1,173
  • Edited 8:32pm Jan 31, 2008 8:22pm | Edited 8:32pm
Quoting gfsr
Hello fti,

what does "bot" mean in the above?

Thanks.
bl
stands for "bought"

In inter bank we normally speak in USD terms
but for non complication here meaning pair
regards

Ps: last position i held 2 lots short GBP/USD @ 1.9884 and 1.9899
decided to cut loss at 1.9919 buying back 2 lots GBP/USD

Now the market is caught dead in a congestion, probably due to friday blues.
waiting of before lunch swing for tokyo zone.
what a long long day.
  • #1,174
  • Jan 31, 2008 8:44pm Jan 31, 2008 8:44pm
Quoting fti
stands for "bought"

In inter bank we normally speak in USD terms
but for non complication here meaning pair
regards

Ps: last position i held 2 lots short GBP/USD @ 1.9884 and 1.9899
decided to cut loss at 1.9919 buying back 2 lots GBP/USD

Now the market is caught dead in a congestion, probably due to friday blues.
waiting of before lunch swing for tokyo zone.
what a long long day.
Thanks, fti,

So the battle in gbpusd was retreated, so that we can fight another battle latter? was this due to the lacklustre movements and activity we are having atm and the movement didn't happen quickly in our favour(actually it went the other way) and had to abandon(no rescue)?

and btw what do u mean by market "form"?

Thanks... still watching..

cool..
bl
  • #1,175
  • Jan 31, 2008 8:49pm Jan 31, 2008 8:49pm
Quoting gfsr
Thanks, fti,

So the battle in gbpusd was retreated, so that we can fight another battle latter? was this due to the lacklustre movements and activity we are having atm and the movement didn't happen quickly in our favour(actually it went the other way) and had to abandon(no rescue)?

and btw what do u mean by market "form"?

Thanks... still watching..

cool..
bl
Hi gfsr

battle still on going
now 14 min to Tokyo lunch

Position was abandon as was overstaying in tight range with USD/Yen signalling possible test to down side , therefore overloaded for up sweep
anyway it was GBp second attempt after taking small profit on 6 lots earlier.
trying to preserve capital if significant opportunity arises, so far none yet
Market form is reading of the dance tempo
currently caught in slow up spreading pattern
heavy shadowing on the tops signalling sweeps attempts but without substance.
Note the cautious stance taken due to trading from thursday into friday.

Daily form is trending up, with possible topping possibility.
Cautious also as trading against major trend.
Now trend direction is sideways , with short chart confirmation side to spread
ie bearish form on short charts

Therefore as there is no impending threat, operating to rescue position on swings.
But volatility is trading at marketmaker spread, therefore adding to position is not advisable until clearer signs appear.

Situation becomes dangerous if tops on EUR are taken out.
Therefore still waiting with patience.

regards
  • #1,176
  • Jan 31, 2008 8:50pm Jan 31, 2008 8:50pm
Quoting gfsr
Thanks, fti,

So the battle in gbpusd was retreated, so that we can fight another battle latter? was this due to the lacklustre movements and activity we are having atm and the movement didn't happen quickly in our favour(actually it went the other way) and had to abandon(no rescue)?

and btw what do u mean by market "form"?

Thanks... still watching..

cool..
bl

oops, fti, your updates are faster than my replies...

thanks again.. it is clearer now.
  • #1,177
  • Edited 11:04pm Jan 31, 2008 9:03pm | Edited 11:04pm
OK back from lunch
but is "unable to connect to order server"
efx just in case anyone is interested
about to use four letter words on them.
starting with cook
  • #1,178
  • Jan 31, 2008 10:57pm Jan 31, 2008 10:57pm
Quoting fti

"one of the worst things in life was
to go to bed and sleep not,
and to wait for some one or some thing that comes not"
Sleep is a symptom of caffeine deprivation.
  • #1,179
  • Edited 11:25pm Jan 31, 2008 11:03pm | Edited 11:25pm
Quoting Northpro
Sleep is a symptom of caffeine deprivation.
Hi northpro,
and "unable to connect to order server" is a symptom of...

glad that your still around.

regards

great access at last now 1:05 sg time
market at 1.4860/61 from 1.4871/72 at lunch

position recap

s1 14833
s1 14838
s3 14849
s3 14857
s3 14861

well lets say the devil is unhappy with me and is the culprit.
Never mind wasn't active anyway.
but what if it took out the high and I had no access.
oh bad to think like that, next time it happens again I 'll use the magic words, cook.
I mean if that doesn't work , there's 3 more words I could use.LOL
ok enough
back to markets
oh thanks , suddenly I discovered mkt depth.lol
now I can see flow, only lets see if its real
  • #1,180
  • Jan 31, 2008 11:13pm Jan 31, 2008 11:13pm
I am always here fti...

I've always used indicators when I traded, so the naked method is new to me and I feel I am learning everything all over...I have to shed my mind of all previous habits and have been staring at naked screens now until my eyes are popping out of my head.....so sleep...that would be nice, but naps will do for now.

"Consciousness is that annoying period between naps"
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