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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #1,141
  • Edited 2:56pm Jan 31, 2008 2:42pm | Edited 2:56pm
Quoting Zoran
Now you are a "Euppy" trader (pronounced Yuppy). It is another of my pet pairs but I am beginning to move over to fti's zone.... concentrating on cable, yen and euro. I like the idea of romancing with the three kingdoms.
Hi zorn,
now is not the time to analyse.
let the leg s tell us , we are not dead in waters yet.
the mrket has gone to non dorminant plays
if it was truly up trend, we would be deep out of money by now
The market will continue to test.
this is about the hardest test zones, as it is near turn
an we are positioned near turn. and against majoy day trend
so expect a lot of pain , mostly in time
wait for the test. thy are all coiling up.
mostly stop traders are mostly sweeped out already.
Make on mistake they will test us as we are out of money but still in play
now is good time to check the duck on top to figure out
but since we are not in the banks, we just have to watch the pips movement to feel.
for now wait for bleeding to stop
EUR is being to show hand already.
but done be hasty, now timing is critical.
careful, steady, not yet crosses in play now
  • #1,142
  • Jan 31, 2008 3:01pm Jan 31, 2008 3:01pm
I'm with you fti

I was in a position to take some profit on my cable short but my platform froze, and just as I lost the profit, everything started working again. The joys of retail bro-kers!

I am only trading EUR/USD and GBP/USD at the moment. All eyes are on those + yen!

Last yen wave down looks complete. EUR and cable looks like it's going down.
  • #1,143
  • Jan 31, 2008 3:10pm Jan 31, 2008 3:10pm
Northpro ... after looking back at your charts, one thing I noticed is ... you are entering too late into the dance (the price action was already too deep south on the 5m).

When you enter your scout (1st position) too late, you run the risk of the dance ending before you've begun. Just wait for the next chance to enter into a new dance instead of jumping in when you've already missed most of the moves.

Are you entering one position first (scout) to feel the market pulse, or are you entering many troops on your first entry?
  • #1,144
  • Edited 3:28pm Jan 31, 2008 3:10pm | Edited 3:28pm
Quoting Zoran
I'm with you fti

I was in a position to take some profit on my cable short but my platform froze, and just as I lost the profit, everything started working again. The joys of retail bro-kers!

I am only trading EUR/USD and GBP/USD at the moment. All eyes are on those + yen!

Last yen wave down complete. EUR and cable looks like it's going down.
There you are begining to dance
remember last leg showed volatility on the short of currenccies,
there yen crosses on at mom
probably positioning for Tokyo zone.
prepare bullets, for now
remember timing must be good .
I'm working on strategy now
do not analyse anymore just feel

The time window for the drop is now
but I got lots at this level.
so looks like rescue is called off,
try ride down from here
I am taking out 6 of my gbp at around 60.
riding on 1
eur need rescue, will determine when gbp is secured

the usd yen isn't sexy tonight.
sometnigs lurking in the shadows. but she has been weird for some time already. as you may have notived.
  • #1,145
  • Jan 31, 2008 3:16pm Jan 31, 2008 3:16pm
Oh, and one more thing, Northpro ... get rid of your Fibonacci (even though you didn't show it in your chart, you mentioned it, so that means you're using it, lol)!! You can't feel the dance with that holding on to your shoestrings!!
  • #1,146
  • Jan 31, 2008 3:24pm Jan 31, 2008 3:24pm
Cable short has been closed for 10 pips profit. Euro still in the negative but entry is 25 times smaller than cable entry. Overall in profit now. Focusing on EUR rescue.
  • #1,147
  • Jan 31, 2008 3:27pm Jan 31, 2008 3:27pm
Quoting leighsww
Northpro ... after looking back at your charts, one thing I noticed is ... you are entering too late into the dance (the price action was already too deep south on the 5m).

When you enter your scout (1st position) too late, you run the risk of the dance ending before you've begun. Just wait for the next chance to enter into a new dance instead of jumping in when you've already missed most of the moves.

Are you entering one position first (scout) to feel the market pulse, or are you entering many troops on your first entry?
Leigh,

yeah I knew that...I was late to the party..(sleeping)..as a result I thought i could sneak a quick leg down and yes due to being late in the game I only put in 1/2 the normal scout(1st wave). still a poor decision.
I normally work in reverse from an estimated worse case rescue at various levels...this would determine the size of the initial scout, before the trade is executed. I am thinking assess risk first, then feel the market with the 1st wave. In winners I add to the positions to capitalize on the winning battle, if I have to rescue, I have the resources available to kill the enemy with a quick attack, and possibly more attacks if required. hope I have the mechanics down, it's the rhythm that I am stumbling over a bit.

Quote
Oh, and one more thing, Northpro ... get rid of your Fibonacci (even though you didn't show it in your chart, you mentioned it, so that means you're using it, lol)!! You can't feel the dance with that holding on to your shoestrings!!

Darn....you caught me...lol!

np
  • #1,148
  • Jan 31, 2008 3:44pm Jan 31, 2008 3:44pm
Quoting Northpro
this would determine the size of the initial scout, before the trade is executed.
I would recommend that you only use ONE scout when initially entering to feel the market pulse (there's no need for risking more than one trooper?). That way, if scout needs rescue, you can send in the necessary amount of rescuer troops to get scout out safely (I'll post some calculations later where you can see why this is important in deciding why certain amount of troops is needed, otherwise, if you don't have the adequate number of troops, those rescuers carrying scout out will have a longer hike back to safety which runs the risk of ALL of them needing MORE rescue and could ultimately end up in the call to surrender if you're under-capitalized for a secondary rescue mission ... aye-yai-yai!!)

By putting in more than ONE scout, if BOTH (or how many other scouts were put in) need rescuing, you're gonna have to put in TOO MANY rescuers to get them ALL out and you may not be able to (exponentially) to do that. You see what I mean?

* edited - when you see the calculations, it will become crystal clear.

Quoting Northpro
Darn....you caught me...lol!
Nothing gets past us, my dear! :
  • #1,149
  • Jan 31, 2008 3:45pm Jan 31, 2008 3:45pm
Quoting Zoran
Cable short has been closed for 10 pips profit. Euro still in the negative but entry is 25 times smaller than cable entry. Overall in profit now. Focusing on EUR rescue.
Hey Zoran good for you, I am still trying to get my 70 GBP
realise how every kingdom is waiting now
whatevreyou do her would be the wrong move, except if you want to pocket some loose change

OK bot 1.9870 x6

now only sht 1
working on eur now
and where did zoran go?
  • #1,150
  • Jan 31, 2008 3:50pm Jan 31, 2008 3:50pm
I was just thinking of leaving EUR open overnight (i.e. Asian session). It is a small entry.

fti, were you looking at the cable triangle (on 5 min) initially at entry?
  • #1,151
  • Edited 4:24pm Jan 31, 2008 4:00pm | Edited 4:24pm
Quoting Zoran
I was just thinking of leaving EUR open overnight (i.e. Asian session). It is a small entry.

fti, were you looking at the cable triangle (on 5 min) initially at entry?
You must be tired.
Was the ride worth it, you decide.
might as well leave small postion .
seems we won't be going anywhere for now.
but remember we may have caught the top.
maybe not.
so stay vigilant for next move
the eur don't look worth while, so if damage is not a hole in the pocket
might as well clear out and have a good rest.

now I got to get the kids up for school, LOL
mom pls.
ok done
  • #1,152
  • Jan 31, 2008 4:07pm Jan 31, 2008 4:07pm
I will stay up until just after Asian open. So I still have my eye on the chart but this time of night is generally slow. The market moves like a snail.

I am in overall profit but I think EUR can still be rescued.

So how old are your kids fti?
  • #1,153
  • Jan 31, 2008 4:18pm Jan 31, 2008 4:18pm
fti is a pro, thus he may be able to handle 3 kingdoms and also be nosy enough to spy in on several dance floors at the same time while waltzing in his own dance :, but for me ... I prefer to concentrate on my one partner and keep my eyes on ONE dance floor (the one I'm dancing on) and not be looking at what other people are dancing on other dance floors, lol.

For me, watching what the other dancers are doing on the other dance floors is almost like watching several technical indicators at the same time ... they may influence my decisions and also trip me up.

Anyway, like I said ... fti is so well seasoned, he can do this, but for me, I don't want to have to worry about what the other dancers on other dance floors are doing if I am to dance my own dance with flair and finesse, lol

So, for those of you who are more like me (especially those who are not as seasoned as fti or some of the others), I'll be checking in and contributing to your dance lessons to make sure that fti doesn't corrupt you into bad habits (for fti --> , lol.
  • #1,154
  • Jan 31, 2008 4:23pm Jan 31, 2008 4:23pm
Oh Leighsww, in your absense, it was brought to my attention that you are paying bro of USD$50 per mio.
seem too much
Any ideas?

regards
  • #1,155
  • Jan 31, 2008 4:34pm Jan 31, 2008 4:34pm
Quoting leighsww
fti is a pro, thus he may be able to handle 3 kingdoms and also be nosy enough to spy in on several dance floors at the same time while waltzing in his own dance :, but for me ... I prefer to concentrate on my one partner and keep my eyes on ONE dance floor (the one I'm dancing on) and not be looking at what other people are dancing on other dance floors, lol.

For me, watching what the other dancers are doing on the other dance floors is almost like watching several technical indicators at the same time ... they may influence my decisions and also trip me up.

Anyway, like I said ... fti is so well seasoned, he can do this, but for me, I don't want to have to worry about what the other dancers on other dance floors are doing if I am to dance my own dance with flair and finesse, lol

So, for those of you who are more like me (especially those who are not as seasoned as fti or some of the others), I'll be checking in and contributing to your dance lessons to make sure that fti doesn't corrupt you into bad habits (for fti --> , lol.
@ Leighsww,
Regarding the romancing of the 3 kingdoms,its new to you, as your training was at stage one then.
You were taught how to dance properly with elementary MM.
So do catch up on the progress.
The romance is essential for proper managing.
Notice how it kept the position in the battle, when all was lost from the onset.
Other wise re-analysis would have taken us out esp the EUR position.
I guess being stopped out on Eur wouldn'[t be too bad from hindsight,
but the resilience was necessary.
In other scenerios of market gyration, it will prove critical. That you may be able to see when you are more experienced.

regards
  • #1,156
  • Edited 5:00pm Jan 31, 2008 4:44pm | Edited 5:00pm
ok , for those still following
sold EUR x3 @ 1.4857

recap position
s1 1.4833
s1 1.4838
s3 1.4849
s3 1.4857

s1 1.9884
a word of caution here to those who think holy grail
no. be aware that the time window range of 1.4850/00 kept the game alive.
otherwise the loss was mounting , try not to become the next kirvael,
there are limitations and the readig of form is essential/critical
  • #1,157
  • Jan 31, 2008 4:56pm Jan 31, 2008 4:56pm
I'm glad I closed cable as it may have bottomed, Yen looks sideways but EUR still looks south to me. EUR average is 1.4836.
  • #1,158
  • Jan 31, 2008 4:58pm Jan 31, 2008 4:58pm
Quoting fti
Oh Leighsww, in your absense, it was brought to my attention that you are paying bro of USD$50 per mio.
seem too much
Any ideas?
Well, ever since you've taught me your system, I haven't had much losses (especially due to rescuing bad trades and turning them into good ones). The only reason for any losses previously, was due to having to exit trades that I couldn't stay up into the wee hours of the morning to finish (but that should not be the problem anymore now with EUR/JPY as my pair to trade).

Since I've had good winning trades, my commission on my past two days of trading has only been approx. 5% of my profits, so I figure that's fair enough to give my broker. I am willing to give up to 10% - 15% on my profits, so if I'm making $$, I'm not going to worry about giving 5% - 10% to them ... they have to make their money, too

I also just don't want to have to move to another broker right now, especially since I don't know who the heck I would move to. Not to mention, I'd have to start all over with getting used to their platform, etc.

Anyway, if such time comes when I will need to find a new broker, I was hoping that you would have found the one for you and let me know, haha :

Also, if you're trading huge lot sizes and frequently, you can contact EFX and negotiate for a better commission rate. You might want to try that.
  • #1,159
  • Jan 31, 2008 5:07pm Jan 31, 2008 5:07pm
Quoting leighsww
Since I've had good winning trades, my commission on my past two days of trading has only been approx. 5% of my profits, so I figure that's fair enough to give my broker. I am willing to give up to 10% - 15% on my profits, so if I'm making $$, I'm not going to worry about giving 5% - 10% to them ... they have to make their money, too

Wow, you're generous. That seems high to me. I have a fixed 3 pip spread on EUR/JPY.
  • #1,160
  • Jan 31, 2008 5:18pm Jan 31, 2008 5:18pm
Quoting leighsww
fti ... When you are done dancing, you are going to get a good whipping for babysitting TWO currency pair babies at the same time!! http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/whip.gif

You can't give either baby full and complete attention and there is chance for mix up/mistakes when dancing back-and-forth between the two!

Also, you use up too many troops when you fight two separate battles and if a scout and level 2 attack troops get into trouble (heaven forbid that BOTH babies encounter problems), you may not have enough reserve troops to rescue them effectively (well, YOU probably will, but others will NOT, so don't set up precedence for them implementing such bad habits, fti!! http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/whip.gif)

---------

I'll be back later to post some things after fti finishes his two babysitting jobs (I don't want to distract him from his babies right now, cuz at his age, he may give the wrong baby the wrong milk formula, lol).
Good to see you back and kicking! Or was it whipping?
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