NZDUSD at peak | Forex Factory

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NZDUSD at peak

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 31, 2008 2:03pm Jan 31, 2008 2:03pm
What you guys think of NZD/USD,. It's already at top which it has touched a few times before.

With NFP coming tomorrow will it break the .7950 level and go for a new high or will it drop down and the Interest rates difference between NZD and USD is huge which makes it more bullish.
  • #2
  • Jan 31, 2008 3:07pm Jan 31, 2008 3:07pm
Well 2 out of 3 coin flips came up tails, so I'm guessing it's going to go to hit resistance and head back down... laff

At this point I'd just be happy for it to stay above .7900, I missed the last bar's move and could use some movement.
  • #3
  • Jan 31, 2008 3:27pm Jan 31, 2008 3:27pm
Quoting Rabid
Well 2 out of 3 coin flips came up tails, so I'm guessing it's going to go to hit resistance and head back down
LOL

The NFP report can make it breach the support and make it go to a new level.
  • #4
  • Jan 31, 2008 3:32pm Jan 31, 2008 3:32pm
Very strong resistance, as can be seen on a Daily. Obviously a freak NFP could blow things through the roof, but I highly doubt it will break.
  • #5
  • Jan 31, 2008 4:15pm Jan 31, 2008 4:15pm
There's quite a strong trendline on the daily, and it already hit and bounced off the top at around 0.79. I see this pair in the 80's in the future, but I'm playing the odds and selling at market with a stop around just below .80.
This pair needs something crazy to go above .80 and the NFP isn't it!
  • #6
  • Feb 1, 2008 2:52pm Feb 1, 2008 2:52pm
Quoting falcon232
There's quite a strong trendline on the daily, and it already hit and bounced off the top at around 0.79. I see this pair in the 80's in the future, but I'm playing the odds and selling at market with a stop around just below .80.
This pair needs something crazy to go above .80 and the NFP isn't it!
Still shorting this pair. The pair is revolving around .7940
  • #7
  • Feb 1, 2008 11:25pm Feb 1, 2008 11:25pm
short also, new zealand bank is facing a serious slowdown in their economy.
market is expecting more rate increases but i dont think they will blow the system.

also knowing how distortionist carry traders can be and the recent usa rate cut, that pair is likely go up. as the best driver for carry trades.
another thing is the trend, the uptrend from 0.73 is really strong, not seen anything like this is some time, probably we are heading to new highs and another consolidation area.

otherwise if stocks stall or fall *which is likely*, this pair is going donwhill and very hard, has a lot of room for falling. nu is extremely overvalued.

but

if this pair keeps going up, dont going to exit the positions and probably will take another bigger short 400 pips up. if it manages to do so.
good luck, in my opinion, this pair is full of potential.
  • #8
  • Feb 1, 2008 11:32pm Feb 1, 2008 11:32pm
So you are going to hold the short position with 400 pips DD?
  • #9
  • Feb 1, 2008 11:37pm Feb 1, 2008 11:37pm
Quoting AndsX
So you are going to hold the short position with 400 pips DD?
banks are expecting this pair to collapse.
just in the last 2 weeks, have watched like 3 videos in bloomberg talking about a big drop in new zealand currency.
they even call about 0.60!!!. i am targeting just 0.76

there is lot of reasons probably which will help it go down.
a lot of political pressure in exporters, a softening economy, a break of support 2 weeks ago, a probable rates hold by New Zealand bank, which was not expected.

and stocks likely to stall, this pair is really sensitive to all of that. if world economy were on rise probably this pair could even reach parity but its not the case.
i could not say the same about AUSSIE which is supported by gold but NZD is another case.

+

nzd is softening tourism there, suddenly the currency is a headache. probably they will follow the BOC path to avoid the crazy appreciation, which is rate cuts.
  • #10
  • Feb 2, 2008 12:16am Feb 2, 2008 12:16am
acidguy, sounds like maybe you should be long AUD/NZD instead.
  • #11
  • Feb 2, 2008 1:11am Feb 2, 2008 1:11am
AUD supported by gold, but NZD is supported by agricultural commodities, just my view
  • #12
  • Feb 2, 2008 7:52am Feb 2, 2008 7:52am
Quoting fierceman
acidguy, sounds like maybe you should be long AUD/NZD instead.
yep. this pair is somehow scary. many investors have returned to full risk with the fed crazy rate cut.

but maybe the next week could be time for exit in a retracement.
remember the world is probably headed to a recession. and if stocks tank this pair falls.

still this pair could could touch at any point next week since i am not expecting bank of autralia to raise rates, the will be a selloff in aussie and probably another in kiwi.
  • #13
  • Last Post: Aug 15, 2009 3:27am Aug 15, 2009 3:27am
Quoting AndsX
What you guys think of NZD/USD,. It's already at top which it has touched a few times before.

With NFP coming tomorrow will it break the .7950 level and go for a new high or will it drop down and the Interest rates difference between NZD and USD is huge which makes it more bullish.
I think the bullishness of the NZD is starting to wane. With levels not far shy of 70c USD it's killing our exports but then the USD is speculated to weaken? If the USD does weaken over the next week or so I think the NZD may go even higher but export demand from the US will likely decrease even further. The increase in interest on deposits with the OCR due to rise soon will probably drive the NZD even higher soon. Shortly after that I expect it to come crashing down to closer to 50c than 60c fairly quickly because I don't think there's a lot of equity behind it but hey...
Pity the fool who thinks they'll make it overnight...
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