Technical Analysis Fallacy

When I was young, I once got in trouble for exposing the magic trick that a man was performing. He said that I ruined the magic for the other children. I could not help myself. I had to watch his hands, and know what he was doing.

I would like to guess at what I think fti is refering to when he talks of his personal , romancing the 3 forex kingdoms.

My Guess ....The US dollar is the " God-Emperior-General-Commander", and its Romancing, is its battle with the three kingdoms- ( CHF-GBP-YEN ) It wins sometimes against one Kingdom, but does not have to fight the other two kindoms...they just give up , without a fight. Other times it is battling all three kingdoms, with no clear winner. Sometimes its defeated by all three.

I also have a guess on how fti trades...not how he thinks..but how he trades...the structure of his charts... The daily ...60 min...5 min... To me after getting the feel of the Daily....a 60 min shows the wave, that the daily is vibrating to.. Finally the 5 min is were the visual dance is watched... The 5 minute candle dances around ..back and forth in the impulsive or corrective dance that Elliott is credited for observing. Notice I did not say invent.. There is nothing new under the sun...only people observent enough to meld into what is uniquely unfolding. I believe that when fti advised to Northpro, that the Fib pulls can make you less flexable, That is because when a wave unfolds in a impulsive 1-2-3-4-5 pattern, we can never know which of the legs (1-3-5) is going to be the longest . The corrective stage is even more complex.

Thank you fti for your generous sharing of your experience.. I am learning so much. I am ready for a beating, if what I said is wrong. Totally or partially.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cX4rnohwhgE

Hi All,
This will be erased when I am finished with it.
You wanna dance .
watch you chart and learn.

Time window for selling EUR/USD opens now.
watching levels 1.4825/00
Now waiting for GBP/USD to top out.
If no one is watching I shall stop commentary.
If watching just write watching in reply then delete.
its going to be long night here.
ossible window at 1.4840/55
sold level 1 at 1.4833
Noted zoran and Northpro.
notime to answer now, daancing

now preparing attack sequence level 2
attck sequense level 2 abandoned.
toping of GBP completed.
now rescue level 2 on stand by
short eruusd 1.4838 filled
now awaiting usd/yen retracement back down tfor time window toopen
position recap short eur/usd 1.4833, 1.4838
final topping GBP/Usd expected within next 10 mins
preparingattack sequence level 2
waiting for usdyen to pomplete retrace sequence
yes in 5 min time frame
now gbp top complete
waiting for usd yen retrace sequense to complete
preparing rescue level 2
bhpho you are noted
sold gbp/usd 1.9891
srescue sold 3 x 1.4849
waiting for down swing in eur
sold gbp 1.9884
wave rider 3 you are noted
lloks like the eur and gbp refuse to run unless USd yen bottoms out
may sweep top at eur and gbp
now begining ending time window of usdyen
usd yen bottom out
preparing sell attack sequence on eur
will be fast mkr
reporting may lag
sell 5X
sold 5x 1.9884 GBP
up sweep not strong
volatility dropping
based on performance leader to sell off is GBp
bur gbp seems to have no depth
NY will be goning home soon.
wonder whats their blotter like
oh leighsww 's back
welcome back leighsww!
looks llike non event for today
will be trying to get out at the twinlight zone.
for those that cannot wait, the strategy is to get out all the positions
GBP near 1.9880
for EUR near .4830
except hold small over night short Currencies and lonfg USD
here comes
hold small long USD as in maybe 1 vs GBP ! vs EUR

ok so for those who want you should print thios now.
and I will be erasing soon. so that you chaps can chit chatty.
while I try to get out of the positions.
soory it was a congestion.
As always leighsww 's got impeckable timing.
welcome back
go ahead chatty away.
I am still stuck.
the EUR baby i testing my resolve.
nothing dangerous yet.
still in the time window zone.
will not be updating from now, gonna watch my babes
will let you all know when I get out of the positions and
I will leave small for over night due to pattern of daily and hourly.
It gonna be a long night(morning) LOL

seeit

You may want to refer back to this post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...33#post1806533

Generally analysis of the forex markets is confined to broad analysis of the relationship between,
1.The Allied stronghold currencies, eg the cable , EUR(lately), AUS, etc
2. The USD
3. The inferiors and exotics. eg DMK (retired), YEN, CHF, etc

Therefore the romance of the 3 kingdoms.


Also, I don't believe fti counts waves as such, though the patterns do get noticed.

Just to get a better understanding of your MO. Generally speaking, as you dance, would it be correct to assume that you aim for many smaller consistent wins? So adding and taking as you maneuver?

Eg, 20 to 30 pip wins say 10 times a day (on average)?

fti ... When you are done dancing, you are going to get a good whipping for babysitting TWO currency pair babies at the same time!! http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/whip.gif

You can't give either baby full and complete attention and there is chance for mix up/mistakes when dancing back-and-forth between the two!

Also, you use up too many troops when you fight two separate battles and if a scout and level 2 attack troops get into trouble (heaven forbid that BOTH babies encounter problems), you may not have enough reserve troops to rescue them effectively (well, YOU probably will, but others will NOT, so don't set up precedence for them implementing such bad habits, fti!! http://leighswishingwell.com/lp/emotes/whip.gif)

---------

I'll be back later to post some things after fti finishes his two babysitting jobs (I don't want to distract him from his babies right now, cuz at his age, he may give the wrong baby the wrong milk formula, lol).

leighsww,

WELCOME BACK! Hope all is well with you and your family.

I was wondering about that dual babysitting. Cant wait to hear from you.

regards
NP

Wow, leigh, you're back!

Welcome and good to see you! Hope all is well back home!

Careful with that whip, fti is holding our hands.

Welcome back leighsww. Nice to hear from you.

- WaveRider3

Thanks everyone (please, no more welcome backs needed ... I'll just take it as I'm welcomed back, lol).

I won't be able to be as active as before (so, unfortunately, there will be much less whippings than previously , but I will pop in when I can to contribute whatever I can.

I was able to get back into doing some trading in the past two days, and I have some things to share that may hopefully be of help to some, so I'll be back later to post the info.

The Euro will hit 1.4889 , before it comes back down. long night for some

Hi fti and all,

First of all, thanks fti for the live lesson, that was great to see your sequence as it happens.

Second, I am posting this for critic.

While fti was dancing I was in the middle of a battle that was executed earlier today, here is the trade I did this morning..(trying to get a feeling). Although outside the confines of the 3 Kingdoms, I had chosen this pair for the vol. Well as we can see it went bad, and I obviously lost the rhythm. However, I wanted to post this for critic’. The trade was rescued for a profit as I attacked where I felt would be a slight exhaustion pullback indicated on the 5min chart. MM saved this trade. Some may ask why I took the trade after the 1hr pin bar showed up...well I am asking that myself. Still learning to dance, boy do I suck at it..lol.

fti sorry to bombard your thread with charts, if I am imposing, please let me know. Thanks again for walking us through a live sequence…this is great!

Cheers,
NP

Well, knowing you, you will be able to rescue those trades to turn them into positive trades rather than negative ones.

I've been having much success these last two days having gotten back into trading, so you'll be proud of how you've trained me

I will share with the others as soon as I can type out what I have to say (especially now that you'll be finishing up your babysitting job, lol).

LOL, that totally cracked me up! Oh, and don't you forget it, especially the next time you get the bright idea of babysitting TWO babies!!

really?
maybe, I will be watching for it.

regards

Hi fti

From what I saw, this is kind of how I imagined it to be and I have traded similarly in the past. Admittedly, I did take a small EUR and cable short just to feel the market.

Cable is about break even whereas EUR is 25 pips negative. I shall continue to babysit and hold overnight if need be. Current plan is to close for a small profit.

ok zoran since you are on position.
follow along
watch that usd yen closely now
the leader is gbp
eur is sweeping top,

Cable looks like a rounding top on the hourly with a bit of a diamond formation. Yen could go for one more wave down. These are my thoughts. Cable short is still looking good from my view.

NorthPro ... Main thing you rescued for a profit . I haven't studied your charts yet more closely to give you any feedback on it (I'll try to do that later when I get a chance), but I wanted to comment on the pair that you were trading on, because that was one of the info I was going to post about.

That pair (EUR/JPY) is what I've chosen to be my ONLY pair to trade now. I am not trading any other pair.

Here's why ...

When I was trading EUR/USD (the pair fti told me to concentrate on trading), I had been having a really hard time finishing out trades in the past because of my timezone. If I got in during the Japan session, I'd have to sit all day waiting for a good run. If I traded during the more active London session, I would have to stay up ALL night into the morning (10:00 pm - 4:00 am). As for U.S. sessions, I'm zonkers (catching "ZZZZZs") by that time, so no way can I babysit trades during those times.

Because I can't spend all day nor stay up all night babysitting a trade, EUR/USD, as well as the other majors, just wasn't working for me.

So I went looking for a pair that had high liquidity and large moves within a shorter time span.

Zoran once mentioned GBP/JPY, so I looked at it, but that pair was expensive in regards to the margin it used up, so I looked into EUR/JPY and voila! It was perfect for meeting all my criteria!

This pair is what I've been trading the past two days and I have been able to complete several successful trades during the time I can babysit them (not just one trade per day, like in the past).

fti (and anybody else who may find this pair better for getting in your beauty sleep, lol) ... you might want to look into trading EUR/JPY, as well, cuz you may get faster battles that won't keep you up all night. I cannot fathom battling/babysitting a trade for more than a few hours (and when it becomes 24 hours or more, sheesh, that's just crazy!!

Anyway, I'll be back again with more info

Just to keep you informed I am preparing rescue now.
mostly wating for the bleeding to stop in eur
and watching that usd yen close

leigh,

thanks for the feedback, thats' exactly why I chose that pair and will be watching it closely as well to get a feeling of it's characteristics. Like you, I have had to close out trades earlier than hoped as time was against me and sleep is a requirement for healthy living, so I am told!lol.
Anyway, glad to have you back.

fti, zoran,

still watching this e/u and g/u trade with you. looks like g/u just broke the upward trendline..this could be good. or not!

np

Now you are a "Euppy" trader (pronounced Yuppy). It is another of my pet pairs but I am beginning to move over to fti's zone.... concentrating on cable, yen and euro. I like the idea of romancing with the three kingdoms.