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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #1,101
  • Jan 30, 2008 3:33pm Jan 30, 2008 3:33pm
Nice trade Northpro!

I was lucky and caught the spike from the fed cut this morning - on the way back down
  • #1,102
  • Jan 30, 2008 4:51pm Jan 30, 2008 4:51pm
fti,

Looking forward to the next lesson. I personally am appreciative for your thread and all the lessons that you have given us thus far. I noticed in one of your posts within the trading room, you mention the Forex Angels that you compiled within your lessons for "The Bourse Game". Can you elaborate some time on this, am hungry for more knowledge.

Regards,
NP
  • #1,103
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:54pm Jan 30, 2008 9:54pm
Quoting spotless1212
I have been experimenting on the correlation of GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY. To me its like watching two battle fields. do big players focus on correlation?
Actually whats the question?
Big players meaning??

focus??
all I can say Is at this moment I am focus on the feds.
There seems dangerous "conflict of Interest" in the decision making.
The devaluation of the USD is in progress.

regards
  • #1,104
  • Edited 10:23pm Jan 30, 2008 10:03pm | Edited 10:23pm
Quoting MickD
Nice trade Northpro!

I was lucky and caught the spike from the fed cut this morning - on the way back down
It must be the weather, but surly I am moody.
MickD, you continue to put your head in the market beting on release of expected figs or decisions, and you will have your head handed back to you detached from your body one of these days.
I know that the challenge to play god, drives up the adrenaline but if you trade your money like that, then you have lost respect for it.
Try not to develop bad habis , even if in demo.

regards
  • #1,105
  • Edited 11:11pm Jan 30, 2008 10:23pm | Edited 11:11pm
Quoting Northpro
Here is my final entry, just taken.
Hi Northpro.
Was nice to see your posting of your attempt to try to piece it all together.
Somehow , everytime I looked at your chart and your frame of mind in the attempts, I get a disturbing thoughts of your rigidity imposed by the fib.
Its like you are trading the flow boxed in by the parameters. ( probably your confort zone as you mentioned) but , thats restricting your perceptions of the market and impairing efficient possibilities.
Be mindful that rigidity in mindset can put you in difficult circumstance, esp when dealing with a dynamic and ruthless animal, the markets.
I am to the opinion that there was no attempt to "dance" with the market displayed in your attempt. The attempts were too cut and dry, there was no feel and flow sequenses. Too...........(thinking for the right explaination)

You can do better, Try harder.

regards
  • #1,106
  • Jan 30, 2008 11:02pm Jan 30, 2008 11:02pm
Quoting spotless1212
I have been experimenting on the correlation of GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY. To me its like watching two battle fields. do big players focus on correlation?
Hi again.
If I got what you are asking.
Let me build you a scenerio.
You are watching USD/Yen and GBP/USD.
and everything is stable and quiet.
Suddenly theres heavy selling of USD/Yen .
What happens to the dollar, it floods the market.
Do you think there will be a reaction in the GBP/USD?

Does this answer your correlation question.

regards
  • #1,107
  • Jan 30, 2008 11:27pm Jan 30, 2008 11:27pm
Quoting fti
It must be the weather, but surly I am moody.
MickD, you continue to put your head in the market beting on release of expected figs or decisions, and you will have your head handed back to you detached from your body one of these days.
I know that the challenge to play god, drives up the adrenaline but if you trade your money like that, then you have lost respect for it.
Try not to develop bad habis , even if in demo.

regards
I understand.
To be honest I don't follow the news, I seen the spike, waited for it to stop and waited for the opportunity on the correction, nothing more.
I took profits on the return leg when it stalled, then it continued down so I got back on and took another 40 pip's as it reached it's previous price before the spike.
As you said, it's was only the news and a knee jerk reation by traders, I at first thought it was a stop hunt for a lot of short orders and that's why I was watching.

cheers,
Mick.
  • #1,108
  • Edited 11:46pm Jan 30, 2008 11:30pm | Edited 11:46pm
Quoting WaveRider3
Hi Fti,
I recently came across a book, which relates AOW with trading. The books is "36 Strategies of Chinese for financial traders" by Daryl Guppy. I don't know if you have come across that book. I feel that reading that book should compliment your teachings.
Just my 2 cents.
Thanks,
WaveRider3
Before retirement, I did heard about a group of guppy traders. Then I understood that they were meant as in "small" = guppy traders.
I heard now the "guppy guru" have moved out of the fish farm into cyberspace.LOL

36 strategems is ok reading.
makes for 36x36 chance , also 36 basepower 36 strategies.
Like sitoca mentioned mostly covered in Sun Zi AOW.
Since you are at it, for your general knowledge, might as well read about the classics "The water margin" and "The Romance of the 3 Kingdoms". Kong Meng's wisdoms may help open your mind to "thoughts".

Please do not confuse that epic with my romance of 3 kingdom, which is the romance of 3 forex kingdoms.

regards
  • #1,109
  • Jan 30, 2008 11:37pm Jan 30, 2008 11:37pm
Quoting MickD
I understand.
To be honest I don't follow the news, I seen the spike, waited for it to stop and waited for the opportunity on the correction, nothing more.
I took profits on the return leg when it stalled, then it continued down so I got back on and took another 40 pip's as it reached it's previous price before the spike.
As you said, it's was only the news and a knee jerk reation by traders, I at first thought it was a stop hunt for a lot of short orders and that's why I was watching.

cheers,
Mick.
Oh, ok good dancing.
although you may not want to trade the fundamentals, but be aware of their impending releases, the FF calander may be useful for that. You do not want to be suckered into positions ahead of their releases.
Mostly for US figs , watch out for Friday mornings. esp near month end.
For Jap figs, mid week, esp tankan and keidianren reports.

regards
  • #1,110
  • Jan 30, 2008 11:44pm Jan 30, 2008 11:44pm
Quoting fti
...
although you may not want to trade the fundamentals, but be aware of their impending releases, the FF calander may be useful for that. You do not want to be suckered into positions ahead of their releases.
You're right, I don't want to trade anything really
You just put 'trading the news' in a different light for me now that I understand and will definitely add to my tool box.

Thanks again ,
Mick.
  • #1,111
  • Jan 30, 2008 11:46pm Jan 30, 2008 11:46pm
I think everyone who trades technicals exclusively has been suckered into having their stops being blown out of the water.
  • #1,112
  • Jan 30, 2008 11:49pm Jan 30, 2008 11:49pm
Quoting fti
Oh, ok good dancing.
although you may not want to trade the fundamentals, but be aware of their impending releases, the FF calander may be useful for that. You do not want to be suckered into positions ahead of their releases.
Mostly for US figs , watch out for Friday mornings. esp near month end.
For Jap figs, mid week, esp tankan and keidianren reports.

regards
Hi fti

I never trade first Friday of every month as this is when US releases non farm payroll data. The market almost always goes crazy for a while after this release.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #1,113
  • Edited Jan 31, 2008 1:17am Jan 30, 2008 11:57pm | Edited Jan 31, 2008 1:17am
Quoting forexmoments
I think everyone who trades technicals exclusively has been suckered into having their stops being blown out of the water.
possible, except for the true technical analyst.
capricious - "woman are like goats" lol
Inserted Video

focus on word capricious not on word woman or the woman!

Hint: market=woman, LOL, beautiful curves.
Why do you think I'll used most of my adult life tackling her.
Even the queen bee has difficulty competing mostly.
Attached Image
  • #1,114
  • Jan 31, 2008 12:01am Jan 31, 2008 12:01am
Quoting fti
Hi Northpro.
Was nice to see your posting of your attempt to try to piece it all together.
Somehow , everytime I looked at your chart and your frame of mind in the attempts, I get a disturbing thoughts of your rigidity imposed by the fib.
Its like you are trading the flow boxed in by the parameters. ( probably your confort zone as you mentioned) but , thats restricting your perceptions of the market and impairing efficient possibilities.
Be mindful that rigidity in mindset can put you in difficult circumstance, esp when dealing with a dynamic and ruthless animal, the markets.
I am to the opinion that there was no attempt to "dance" with the market displayed in your attempt. The attempts were too cut and dry, there was no feel and flow sequenses. Too...........(thinking for the right explaination)

You can do better, Try harder.

regards

Fti,

Thanks for the response and the positive criticism. I somehow think though that I have lost the concept somewhere here. I thought that I was figuring your methodology out to some degree, now not so sure. I think I am close but am missing a few critical links in the chain and to be honest I feel a little confused here...the "feeling" of the market you describe, leaves me a little perplexed...I suppose there is music there that I cannot quite hear and I use the fibs and trendlines as guidelines like a def person uses visual clues to audible events. That would be a weakness, that you describe leads to rigidity...although shattered(LOL), I will try harder.

Cheers,
NP
  • #1,115
  • Jan 31, 2008 12:16am Jan 31, 2008 12:16am
Quoting DutchAngel
Hi fti

I never trade first Friday of every month as this is when US releases non farm payroll data. The market almost always goes crazy for a while after this release.
yes , and that too.
don't trade into the figs.
pick on the dead carcasses after the explosion. always good feeding.

regards
  • #1,116
  • Jan 31, 2008 12:17am Jan 31, 2008 12:17am
Quoting fti
possible, except for the true technical analyst.
capricious - "woman are like goats" lol
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRDQZbKgPrs
focus on word capricious not on word woman or the woman!
NOW you tell me <hits the back button to watch again....>
  • #1,117
  • Edited 12:50am Jan 31, 2008 12:39am | Edited 12:50am
Quoting Northpro
Fti,

Thanks for the response and the positive criticism. I somehow think though that I have lost the concept somewhere here. I thought that I was figuring your methodology out to some degree, now not so sure. I think I am close but am missing a few critical links in the chain and to be honest I feel a little confused here...the "feeling" of the market you describe, leaves me a little perplexed...I suppose there is music there that I cannot quite hear and I use the fibs and trendlines as guidelines like a def person uses visual clues to audible events. That would be a weakness, that you describe leads to rigidity...although shattered(LOL), I will try harder.

Cheers,
NP
@ northpro.
maybe this might help, you .
MO="dance" ie timing, rythem, pulse. use compounded, limit compounding to leg ie "stretch".
fibo=size, use fibo to your advantage, in MM not like its a golden bullet.
Your staggering of MM is correct. Just your rational of where to do it.
remember to "dance" the market form.

regards
  • #1,118
  • Jan 31, 2008 1:33am Jan 31, 2008 1:33am
Hi fti

How many trades would you make on an average day?
  • #1,119
  • Edited 8:01am Jan 31, 2008 7:50am | Edited 8:01am
Hi ALL,
Looks like the fed did the magic.
The USD has had it against the EUR.
Look for the begining of the reverse of trend.
Stay nimble and not short of USD from now.
Just general advise, short USD is bad proposition from here on.
Love to know whats driving the USD now.

regards
  • #1,120
  • Jan 31, 2008 8:03am Jan 31, 2008 8:03am
Quoting Zoran
Hi fti

How many trades would you make on an average day?
Hi Zoran,
Enough for the (spot Fx)brokers to be fighting over the business.
why do you ask?

regards
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