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CAD/JPY

  • #101
  • Jan 23, 2008 7:50am Jan 23, 2008 7:50am
Quoting jeffmelvin
Well, its hard to go long on this pair, it makes me nervous with everything thats going on. Im watching the nikkei, and still down quite a bit, so its hard to short the yen right now..... Im sitting out till things cool down. Whats your analysis on the yen pairs, CAD/JPY especially.
I'll probably sit on the sidelines until FOMC. Far too volatile. They just went down 2%, up 2%, and back down 2% all in about 36 hours. The 75bp cut barely put a dent into the de-leveraging and unwinding going on (and still to come).
  • #102
  • Jan 24, 2008 12:48pm Jan 24, 2008 12:48pm
First buy signal since mid-Dec, I'm in from mid 104. Everything looking up on this pair now. Huge outperformance of the loonie against every single currency today (especially the dollar). Back above the weekly trendline, above the H4 downtrend, MACD about to cross, RSI back above 30 and trending up, all good signs. Similar signs of bottoming in UJ, watch out once that pair begins to run. Initial target 109, SL 104.
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  • #103
  • Jan 24, 2008 3:34pm Jan 24, 2008 3:34pm
106.90 already! The dollar is getting crushed today.
  • #104
  • Jan 24, 2008 6:13pm Jan 24, 2008 6:13pm
I agree, I got in at 104.50, but only on two mini lots as I was very cautious, but hey, pips are pips right? looking for another entry soon. Things look good for the loonie right now.
Jeff
Quoting Trader KGB
First buy signal since mid-Dec, I'm in from mid 104. Everything looking up on this pair now. Huge outperformance of the loonie against every single currency today (especially the dollar). Back above the weekly trendline, above the H4 downtrend, MACD about to cross, RSI back above 30 and trending up, all good signs. Similar signs of bottoming in UJ, watch out once that pair begins to run. Initial target 109, SL 104.
  • #105
  • Jan 25, 2008 2:19am Jan 25, 2008 2:19am
Is the Cad jpy going down ?

What is your advice if i sold at 103 and the price now 107 ( -400 pip )

have to wait or closed and enter buying ?
  • #106
  • Jan 25, 2008 2:30am Jan 25, 2008 2:30am
Quoting Nfgaxp
Is the Cad jpy going down ?

What is your advice if i sold at 103 and the price now 107 ( -400 pip )

have to wait or closed and enter buying ?
My advice would be to implement a proper stop order, something along the lines of 2-5% of your account. A 400 pip drawdown is completely unacceptable, unless you're trading so small that such a loss constitutes less than 5% of your account balance.

Everything is looking very bullish on CADJPY right now. If CPI comes in way under, we might see some downside pressure. Analysts are expecting -0.1% (placing the bar pretty low in my opinion). We'll find out in a few hours.
  • #107
  • Jan 25, 2008 6:13pm Jan 25, 2008 6:13pm
Whenever I enter trades on the yen pairs, I always use 3 times less the amount of lots that I would usually use with other pairs. I just find them so very volatile. I also use just a bit bigger stop loss than usual, just to let the position have some room to bounce around, but for sure 400 pips is way too much. I never go more than 100.

quote=Trader KGB;1820214]My advice would be to implement a proper stop order, something along the lines of 2-5% of your account. A 400 pip drawdown is completely unacceptable, unless you're trading so small that such a loss constitutes less than 5% of your account balance.

Everything is looking very bullish on CADJPY right now. If CPI comes in way under, we might see some downside pressure. Analysts are expecting -0.1% (placing the bar pretty low in my opinion). We'll find out in a few hours.[/quote]
  • #108
  • Jan 29, 2008 4:55am Jan 29, 2008 4:55am
USD/CAD at 9975! Welcome back parity, it's been a long cold January without you.

Look at those stop orders fly, I love it.
  • #109
  • Jan 29, 2008 7:34am Jan 29, 2008 7:34am
It's going to be a long winter for the USD
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #110
  • Jan 30, 2008 1:34pm Jan 30, 2008 1:34pm
Quoting DutchTrader
It's going to be a long winter for the USD
Indeed!

108.50, I love this pair. I'm glad I held off trying to pick a bottom on the big ride down to 102, I did from a demo perspective just for the heck of it and was way off.

I'm taking partial profits here and raising stops on the rest. UJ is completely dead. The entire run has been thanks to UC. I'm very surprised how completely muted the move in UJ was from the Fed release. It can't break 107.50 to save its life. Even if it gets there, there's still the '95 monthly trendline at 108.44
  • #111
  • Jan 30, 2008 2:06pm Jan 30, 2008 2:06pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Indeed!

108.50, I love this pair. I'm glad I held off trying to pick a bottom on the big ride down to 102, I did from a demo perspective just for the heck of it and was way off.

I'm taking partial profits here and raising stops on the rest. UJ is completely dead. The entire run has been thanks to UC. I'm very surprised how completely muted the move in UJ was from the Fed release. It can't break 107.50 to save its life. Even if it gets there, there's still the '95 monthly trendline at 108.44
CJ will probably climb into the 110's again. USD is in the toilet.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #112
  • Jan 30, 2008 2:37pm Jan 30, 2008 2:37pm
Quoting DutchTrader
CJ will probably climb into the 110's again. USD is in the toilet.
True, I might rather switch over to solely a short UC position if UJ is going to head back lower again (which looks to be the case). Take a strengthening yen out of the picture and concentrate solely upon the dollar. What do you think?
  • #113
  • Jan 30, 2008 3:01pm Jan 30, 2008 3:01pm
Stopped out on the second half at 107.70.. UJ screaming lower. I'll wait for a retrace test of parity on UC and head short from there.
  • #114
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:01pm Jan 30, 2008 5:01pm
Quoting Trader KGB
True, I might rather switch over to solely a short UC position if UJ is going to head back lower again (which looks to be the case). Take a strengthening yen out of the picture and concentrate solely upon the dollar. What do you think?
Funny, my mentor said the same thing. He's all Dollar pairs and eschews the carry. Compared the carry to a overly hormonal psycho girlfriend his words not mine.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #115
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:23pm Jan 30, 2008 5:23pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Funny, my mentor said the same thing. He's all Dollar pairs and eschews the carry. Compared the carry to a overly hormonal psycho girlfriend his words not mine.
I can certainly understand where he's coming from, 108.50 to 106.50 in the blink of an eye. This pair is psycho.

edit- And what is happening with AJ the past hour? Down another 100 plus? Hormonal psycho indeed...
  • #116
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:36pm Jan 30, 2008 5:36pm
Must be a large carry cash out. Notice most of these large moves happen in the low liquidity post-NY/pre-Tokyo 5pm-8pm deadzone, especially on a Wednesday (I think to trap most of the triple interest buyers). Usually these moves are best faded, I bet we'll see some type of reversal before Europe chimes in.
  • #117
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:50pm Jan 30, 2008 5:50pm
KGB,

There was talk of a Aussie pension fund in trouble having to sell AJ and AU
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #118
  • Jan 30, 2008 6:01pm Jan 30, 2008 6:01pm
Quoting DutchTrader
KGB,

There was talk of a Aussie pension fund in trouble having to sell AJ and AU
Where did you hear this?

I saw the US futures mimicking the move in the carry and thought it might have been leaked downgrades on the bond insurers.
  • #119
  • Jan 30, 2008 6:14pm Jan 30, 2008 6:14pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Where did you hear this?

I saw the US futures mimicking the move in the carry and thought it might have been leaked downgrades on the bond insurers.
Believe it or not inside tip from a friend at a bank. No lie.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #120
  • Jan 30, 2008 7:03pm Jan 30, 2008 7:03pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Believe it or not inside tip from a friend at a bank. No lie.
Well well! A genuine Gordon Gecko we have here!

Any reason why they were so rushed in their selling? Odd that they chose such a low volume time period to sell. They could've gotten much better action before the NY close, wouldn't have thrown AU into a 110 pip tailspin..


Here's that Tokyo retrace as I was suspecting, I'm in from the S1 for a scalp, let's see if it has legs..
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