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  • #41
  • Jan 28, 2008 1:27pm Jan 28, 2008 1:27pm
the nzd just broke 0.7750, would anyone agree it is a good time to long given the rally in equities this morning?
  • #42
  • Jan 28, 2008 1:44pm Jan 28, 2008 1:44pm
The stock market rally is what is worrying me a bit. If equities close in the positive again on Tuesday and the Fed don't follow through with the expected 50 bsp cut, well then good night!

_________
scexglobal
  • #43
  • Jan 28, 2008 1:50pm Jan 28, 2008 1:50pm
Quoting scexglobal
The stock market rally is what is worrying me a bit. If equities close in the positive again on Tuesday and the Fed don't follow through with the expected 50 bsp cut, well then good night!

_________
scexglobal

Absolutely correct.

Could be a case of "Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact" also.

Rumor is 50 cut = Buy

Fact is 50 cut = Sell

My "Spider Sense" is tingling as well.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #44
  • Jan 30, 2008 2:36pm Jan 30, 2008 2:36pm
The post FOMC moves have been completely textbook. Equities popped higher, commod's rocketed higher.

BUT

There is a little voice in my head that keeps saying to beware an unwind. That all carry related currencies are testing very strong resistance levels now

Gbp/jpy 213.60/214

Nzd/usd 7935

Usd/cad 9840

Aud/usd 9030

Dangerous waters we are swimming in I say again

FWIW I am short gbp/jpy @ 213.2
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #45
  • Jan 30, 2008 2:48pm Jan 30, 2008 2:48pm
Quoting youalreadykn
EUR/AUD approaching the upper limits of the range that's been in place from 11/23/07 until today.

Nice sell signal around 1.70 for today as that's probably the end of the Fib extension for the day and week, plus resistance at 12/5/07 high of 1.6995. Lower end of the range around 1.65.

A break above 1.7175 signals bullish breakout from pennant formation.
Profit targets reached after Fed announcement. Now at lower end of range and I'd strongly recommend a buy with a target near 1.69.

I entered at 1.656... and as I type this it is going through the roof.

Following trendlines, the true low end of the range should be around 1.6460, but Fib support is at 1.6525.
  • #46
  • Jan 30, 2008 2:50pm Jan 30, 2008 2:50pm
Nice job.

It's amazing how all the pairs tie into one another. I saw an unwind technically and BOOM here it is. You saw the eur/aud and BOOM here it is. This should be what forums are about. Different analysis showing the same thing.

Cheers!
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #47
  • Jan 30, 2008 3:06pm Jan 30, 2008 3:06pm
TexasforEx,

I second that. DOW gave back all gain with a H&S pattern and ended in negative territory... what a beauty.
________
scexglobal
  • #48
  • Jan 30, 2008 4:57pm Jan 30, 2008 4:57pm
Quoting youalreadykn
Profit targets reached after Fed announcement. Now at lower end of range and I'd strongly recommend a buy with a target near 1.69.

I entered at 1.656... and as I type this it is going through the roof.

Following trendlines, the true low end of the range should be around 1.6460, but Fib support is at 1.6525.
Closing shop for now on EUR/AUD at 1.67 as it looks a bit overextended. Waiting for a possible retrace to 1.6620 to re-enter longs.

The chart on this pair is lovely...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud-range2.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #49
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:08pm Jan 30, 2008 5:08pm
Just took a short on EURAUD...

Stimulus package good news for AUD and their asian conterparts?

SL 1.6707
  • #50
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:17pm Jan 30, 2008 5:17pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
Just took a short on EURAUD...

Stimulus package good news for AUD and their asian conterparts?

SL 1.6707
That's a tight SL... it should drop some, but we could see 1.6700-1.6740 as a range tonight.
  • #51
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:22pm Jan 30, 2008 5:22pm
Quoting youalreadykn
That's a tight SL... it should drop some, but we could see 1.6700-1.6740 as a range tonight.
I pulled the stop, you are right...it got some serious play...need time for the rational to play out....thinking of putting in a 1.6750...or maybe jsut sell more there.

AUD economy is good, adn with US stimulus package in play, commodities and china factories will keep running

need EURUSD to roll over.
  • #52
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:25pm Jan 30, 2008 5:25pm
Quoting youalreadykn
Closing shop for now on EUR/AUD at 1.67 as it looks a bit overextended. Waiting for a possible retrace to 1.6620 to re-enter longs.

The chart on this pair is lovely...
I think it actually has some ways to go before it runs out of steam...
  • #53
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:27pm Jan 30, 2008 5:27pm
Quoting scexglobal
I think it actually has some ways to go before it runs out of steam...
Wow you see that spike??

the euro is climbing aginst aud and cad while it slips agsint USD.

euraud locked??? cant sell more atm..
  • #54
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:30pm Jan 30, 2008 5:30pm
Wierd EURAUD is locked on my plat form...just my luck. Should have let stop get hit I guess. or maybe there was an erroneous order entered.

reopened sinking after hitting a 1.6770 spike...never have seen that before
  • #55
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:38pm Jan 30, 2008 5:38pm
Wow... didn't think it would get past 1.6740, but it shot through to my daily extension target with 23 hours in the day remaining.
  • #56
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:48pm Jan 30, 2008 5:48pm
hmm.

Unreal. Now I am in damage control mode.

it's only 2 minis, but geez...talk about being on teh wrong side. I got hasty thinking I was leveraging against my EUR USD short...which worked but EURAUD completely outpaced it.

there was a huge sell off of AUD. across the board.


Awww crap.

edit: sold 2 more at .6769
  • #57
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:50pm Jan 30, 2008 5:50pm
Quoting youalreadykn
Wow... didn't think it would get past 1.6740, but it shot through to my daily extension target with 23 hours in the day remaining.

Indeed stochastics hadn't hinted at overbought levels yet. Although 1.6800 sounds like a good resistance for now.
  • #58
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:57pm Jan 30, 2008 5:57pm
Quoting scexglobal
Indeed stochastics hadn't hinted at overbought levels yet. Although 1.6800 sounds like a good resistance for now.
Pulling up news to explain this move. All i can find is news on bloomberg indicating that the AUD will reach parity against this dollar this year.

this has got to be a stop loss run.

I see EUR weakness, AUD strength...hence my position.
  • #59
  • Jan 30, 2008 6:02pm Jan 30, 2008 6:02pm
Could you provide the link to the news article please?

EUR/AUD should really be treated more as a carry trade pair. It's not as volitile as some others, but macro-economoic news usually does not influence its movements directly, but indirectly through the stock markets (EUR/USD is the exact opposite).

_________
scexglobal
  • #60
  • Jan 30, 2008 6:09pm Jan 30, 2008 6:09pm
For news purposes.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aJ9.2XJ_AWGE

moving in my favor atm...

looking to take profit at 1.6680 ish

EDIT had to close with $14 profit. Have to re evaluate. wow...heartattack
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