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GBP/JPY for QQE Traders!

  • #821
  • Jan 30, 2008 12:42pm Jan 30, 2008 12:42pm
Quoting Pirin
Let me quote myself :

" No matter where you put your stop loss at, it will be hit just before the market goes your way. "
I haven't had a trade in almost 12 hours, and it feels good to be out right now.

  • #822
  • Jan 30, 2008 12:47pm Jan 30, 2008 12:47pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
I haven't had a trade in almost 12 hours, and it feels good to be out right now.

I envy you.

I was waiting for this rate cut for 2 weeks to go short on gbp/jpy and that 60 green pips hit my tight stop loss and made me lose my confidence, so I stayed out and watched it drop as expected and awaited. I don't have the iron will of a trader.
  • #823
  • Jan 30, 2008 12:49pm Jan 30, 2008 12:49pm
Up about 300 pips.
Just TPd out on the retrace down, but gonna sit it out until Tokyo now.
Off to take my son to the DRs.

good to get away from this stress machine.

happy trading.
  • #824
  • Jan 30, 2008 12:50pm Jan 30, 2008 12:50pm
The Dow did rally. But it shot up and then back down again. Everything still looks uncertain.

http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/cn...8192&rand=8397
  • #825
  • Jan 30, 2008 12:51pm Jan 30, 2008 12:51pm
Quoting Pirin
I envy you.

I was waiting for this rate cut for 2 weeks to go short on gbp/jpy and that 60 green pips hit my tight stop loss and made me lose my confidence, so I stayed out and watched it drop as expected and awaited. I don't have the iron will of a trader.
Another crazy day . . .
  • #826
  • Jan 30, 2008 12:56pm Jan 30, 2008 12:56pm
Quoting kujo17
Up about 300 pips.
Just TPd out on the retrace down, but gonna sit it out until Tokyo now.
Off to take my son to the DRs.

good to get away from this stress machine.

happy trading.
Good job Kujo. Catch ya later!
  • #827
  • Jan 30, 2008 1:18pm Jan 30, 2008 1:18pm
The Dow closed on a negative note, so that couldn't keep U/J up. Meanwhile G/U is retracing back to a "normal" price range. The combination of those two pairs going down is what brought G/J down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: rates2.jpg Size: 408 KB
  • #828
  • Jan 30, 2008 1:26pm Jan 30, 2008 1:26pm
And an interesting thing about today is that it's "triple interest Wednesday". So a combination of this and low G/J prices might start attracting carry trades and drive G/J up . . .
  • #829
  • Jan 30, 2008 1:30pm Jan 30, 2008 1:30pm
Quoting Pirin
I don't think that rate cutting is lowering the risk aversion. Especially when we are talking about surprising 0.75 and expected 0.5 cuts. That is only showing that the situation is really bad. Yes the stock market will react positively, they like to see a weak dollar in the short term, but that doesn't bring confidence to the traders to put their money in risky carry trades. I remain bearish ... we'll see what happens. I'm just asking myself why didn't I made a long eur/usd call instead of risking it with the gbp/jpy ... but high volatility made me greedy.
What I meant is that a stock market that is upward trending gives confidence to investors who are therefore more willing to undertake risk, for instance with carry trades.
Since the market hoped for a 50bp cut and they got what they wanted: the market was overall bullish.
Now, all the markets are down (except the brazilian market)... people are bearish and therefore risk aversion increases: GY is pointing south.

When looking at the VIX economic indicator: we can see that it drops 1.6% today at 27.xx.
VIX values greater than 30 are generally associated with a large amount of volatility as a result of investor fear or uncertainty, while values below 20 generally correspond to less stressful, even complacent, times in the markets.

We are in between, it's quite difficult to have a realistic view based upon it. But what we can keep from this information is that it is lowering, which implies a decrease in risk aversion overall.

Now I agree with you regarding the situation that is really bad. I think that markets fears prove the overall bearish situation.

Also, when you say that you should have long EURUSD... that's questionnable. Even though this sounds like a realistic view from fundamental theories, I'm not quite sure about its real reality. Ok the EURUSD is up right now, but the last 75bp cut didn't really change a lot to the pair. For a 75bp cut, nothing crazy happened, and overall the EURUSD should have been way higher after this announcement. It went up and retraced back to its level one day later (as if the USD rallied, and then "unemployment claims" lower than expected: good news! ... but no the dollar weakened again...)
There were a really interesting article in the Financial Times a couple of days ago about this new relation between interest rates differentials and currency values, which said exactly what I just told you.
We could argue about that for hours, and end up with no right answer anyway: the market is more and more stubborn and just does whatever it wants!
  • #830
  • Jan 30, 2008 1:36pm Jan 30, 2008 1:36pm
Look at the attached graph of the VIX indicator for today. The reaction has been the one when people are less risk averse.
Now it's going up again...
Attached Image
  • #831
  • Jan 30, 2008 1:45pm Jan 30, 2008 1:45pm
Another interesting graph since I'm on it.
Taken from Currency Trader magazine of November 2007.
And now back in QQE trading, technicals, etc...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Correlation.JPG Size: 93 KB
  • #832
  • Jan 30, 2008 3:27pm Jan 30, 2008 3:27pm
seems the market is still full of steam for a downtrend... I'll wait for Tokyo session at least to re-enter trades... or London session.

But I feel that tomorrow will be a better day to trade (GMT time, here it's almost midnight).

Cheers
  • #833
  • Jan 30, 2008 3:32pm Jan 30, 2008 3:32pm
Quoting Michi
We could argue about that for hours, and end up with no right answer anyway: the market is more and more stubborn and just does whatever it wants!
true
I wasn't arguing, just shared my opinion. Wish you lots of pips. Good Night
  • #834
  • Jan 30, 2008 3:59pm Jan 30, 2008 3:59pm
that was an interesting few hours I was away......
She's looking like she wants to push through to 209.2 here.
Stalled up. Lets see what the Tokyo open starts........

everything's pointing down... lets see.
  • #835
  • Jan 30, 2008 7:29pm Jan 30, 2008 7:29pm
Here are the Asian session daily pivots:
Attached Image
  • #836
  • Jan 30, 2008 7:46pm Jan 30, 2008 7:46pm
I'll be keeping an eye open for a possible 15 minute short trade. The S1 support @ 209.50 looks like a favorable target, if it does materialize.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15m_possible.jpg Size: 261 KB
  • #837
  • Jan 30, 2008 7:50pm Jan 30, 2008 7:50pm
PC, Sith and all.....

Hope today's been a positive one for you all.
Missed the big plummet down after the news, as I was away from the terminal and didn't want to 'Let it Ride'........

15m, 1H and 4H are all pointing south. QQE's and Stoch crossed down.
30M is about to cross down as well.

Will probably take until London to get there, but I think 209.5 area is realistic, it's the 50% fib retracement from the last big move up.

We've hit a 50fib retracement every day this week I think, during the Tokyo sesh.

Like watching paint dry, but if she gets there, I'll be happy as I have a few more lots riding on it than usual.

Short from 211.56 and 211.14, TP 209.59
  • #838
  • Jan 30, 2008 7:58pm Jan 30, 2008 7:58pm
Quoting kujo17
PC, Sith and all.....

Hope today's been a positive one for you all.
Missed the big plummet down after the news, as I was away from the terminal and didn't want to 'Let it Ride'........

15m, 1H and 4H are all pointing south. QQE's and Stoch crossed down.
30M is about to cross down as well.

Will probably take until London to get there, but I think 209.5 area is realistic, it's the 50% fib retracement from the last big move up.

We've hit a 50fib retracement every day this week I think, during the Tokyo sesh.

Like watching paint dry, but if she gets there, I'll be happy as I have a few more lots riding on it than usual.

Short from 211.56 and 211.14, TP 209.59
It is tough to watch. Let's see if things work out . . . price is still a little "rangy" right now . . .
  • #839
  • Jan 30, 2008 8:00pm Jan 30, 2008 8:00pm
Current price is 210.97.

I am with you on looking for a 15M short QQE trade. I am hoping price will rally up to 212.00 - 212.20 for ideal entry to go short. That looks far away as price is quite bearish. If price does materialise in 212xx I think 15M will provide a good QQE signal short. I will hold my profit target around 208.00 - 208.60 (that is a price zone for a bullish gartley)

Good luck all - next two sessions is going to be some fireworks ! Thanks bald fed baboon !


Quoting Pips_Cruiser
I'll be keeping an eye open for a possible 15 minute short trade. The S1 support @ 209.50 looks like a favorable target, if it does materialize.
  • #840
  • Jan 30, 2008 8:05pm Jan 30, 2008 8:05pm
Mate......you are a pip machine. How many pips have you made in Jan?

Quoting kujo17
I'll be happy as I have a few more lots riding on it than usual.
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