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Attachments: 13 low 13 high MA 1 hr chart System
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13 low 13 high MA 1 hr chart System

  • #281
  • Edited 9:21am Jan 30, 2008 9:10am | Edited 9:21am
Not a great time for the system so far. It has been running for about 10 hours.

4 Losses = -236 pips (on my 2 Cent trades this has equaled -$4.41).... That is 50 + spread for each
(those were 3 sells and 1 buy)
1 Win = +100 pips (2 Cent trade = +$1.86)
(1 buy)
Net -100 pips (2 Cent trades = -$2.55)

There is 1 open Buy which is around -25 pips now.

It is interesting how as soon as the winning position closed a new position was opened in the same direction. I expected this because I understand how this is programmed, but others might not anticipate that so I mention it here.

So far, not overly impressive, but to be honest it has been a very rough day for my primary system as well.

This is the USD Fed Statement day, so I have to decide if I want to let this run through that. I'm sure that was part of the problem with the trades so far today. Seems the market is expecting a 2 basis point cut. It will be a wild day for sure if they cut by less than the expectation. Probably a wild day if they cut by more. If they do what is expected it will probably be a wild hour or two, and we'll then end up where we started... But I'm not much of a fundamentalist -- so don't listen to me.
  • #282
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:15am Jan 30, 2008 9:15am
I'll answer since jr isn't in the room right now.

The channel is the two 13 SMAs (one based on the high, the other on the low). In the original method, the channel had to fully cross the 100EMA to enable a valid signal. That is no longer the case. We are supposed to take the trades anytime the price crosses both the 13s and the 100.

As for SL, the setting that comes preprogrammed in the EA is 50, so I presume we have moved on to that, combined with a TP of 100.

Hope that clears it up for you.

Quoting gilley53
Hi jr 2007. I found this thread looking through FF, and have a few questions if you don't mind. What I've seen so far looks really good. I don't quite understand the "no channel required to cross" statement. I wondered if you could explain what you meant by that. Also, if you're trading on the 5-minute screen, are you still using 100-pip TP, and 100-pip SL, or are you shooting for smaller amounts? Thanks for any info you can share, and thanks for the work you put into this method!
**************************************************** jr2007 wrote: I am editing the Original Post to make room for the Improved Version of this system. I was having issues with the 1 hr method because......although it can be profitable, it can also be risky. Like everything else in life, we all want the best. To get the best, we must try to improve whatever it is we are striving for. In saying that, I stayed up til the wee hours of the morning, and figured out that it may be better to use a 5 minute chart with this method, along with a "No Channel Required to cross", just as long as the new candle is beyond the 3MAs. I hope I do not upset anyone who has put in alot of work with the EAs. Thank you for your hard work.
  • #283
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:17am Jan 30, 2008 9:17am
Quoting jr2007
I got in earlier, +36 "36 pennies, hehe..."
Hey Jr....r u still refining this method(13 low 13 high chart system?)
Lokin4pips
  • #284
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:27am Jan 30, 2008 9:27am
Lokin4pips, I assure you this sysem is still developing. Jr isn't here right now, but I know he is still tweaking this puppy. If you have suggestions, I'm sure he'd like to hear them. The EA has lots of flexibility, so you should be able to play with different parameters in the strategy tester if you know how and have good data for backtesting. I generally have a low opinion of backtesting unless you can get the data reliability up to 90%, which isn't easy. Anyway, we'd love to hear your thoughts.
  • #285
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:32am Jan 30, 2008 9:32am
Quoting Qman
Not a great time for the system so far. It has been running for about 10 hours.

4 Losses = -236 pips (on my 2 Cent trades this has equaled -$4.41).... That is 50 + spread for each
(those were 3 sells and 1 buy)
1 Win = +100 pips (2 Cent trade = +$1.86)
(1 buy)
Net -100 pips (2 Cent trades = -$2.55)

There is 1 open Buy which is around -25 pips now.

It is interesting how as soon as the winning position closed a new position was opened in the same direction. I expected this because I understand how this is programmed, but others might not anticipate that so I mention it here.

So far, not overly impressive, but to be honest it has been a very rough day for my primary system as well.

This is the USD Fed Statement day, so I have to decide if I want to let this run through that. I'm sure that was part of the problem with the trades so far today. Seems the market is expecting a 2 basis point cut. It will be a wild day for sure if they cut by less than the expectation. Probably a wild day if they cut by more. If they do what is expected it will probably be a wild hour or two, and we'll then end up where we started... But I'm not much of a fundamentalist -- so don't listen to me.

Hey QMAN

What TF are you running on? I started on 5 min and I keep getting buys and sells open at same time. Are you experencing the same?

Thanks
Mombone
  • #286
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:33am Jan 30, 2008 9:33am
Quoting Qman
Not a great time for the system so far. It has been running for about 10 hours.

4 Losses = -236 pips (on my 2 Cent trades this has equaled -$4.41).... That is 50 + spread for each
(those were 3 sells and 1 buy)
1 Win = +100 pips (2 Cent trade = +$1.86)
(1 buy)
Net -100 pips (2 Cent trades = -$2.55)

There is 1 open Buy which is around -25 pips now.

It is interesting how as soon as the winning position closed a new position was opened in the same direction. I expected this because I understand how this is programmed, but others might not anticipate that so I mention it here.

So far, not overly impressive, but to be honest it has been a very rough day for my primary system as well.

This is the USD Fed Statement day, so I have to decide if I want to let this run through that. I'm sure that was part of the problem with the trades so far today. Seems the market is expecting a 2 basis point cut. It will be a wild day for sure if they cut by less than the expectation. Probably a wild day if they cut by more. If they do what is expected it will probably be a wild hour or two, and we'll then end up where we started... But I'm not much of a fundamentalist -- so don't listen to me.

Qman
unlucky with those trades today
since I cannot open the ea
I`m still trading manually
anyway have had 2 wins @ + 50 pips each and 1 loss @ 50pips
  • #287
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:46am Jan 30, 2008 9:46am
Well, I just suffered another loss on the EA, but it has opened a new short (sell) position and that is up, at least for the moment.

Another thing is to not forget about my initial entry, which ended up being a loser. That was not a good time or place to be turning the EA on.

Mombone -- I'm on the 5M chart too. There is a setting in the EA that allows the total number of open positions. If you set that to 1 then I think it will pick a side of the market and stick to it. If it is anything else, and you keep the MAs at their default settings, it will always eventually open divergent positions. Those MAs (fast and slow) are controlling when the trade gets cut off -- together with the SL and TP. The slow MA comes set at 80 which is nearly 7 hours of average pricing. That tends to keep it pretty far from the current price at times. In a ranging market like we've been seeing that tends to work against you. But when it starts trending we'll make a bundle.

CrossesFX -- yep, bad luck. If I had started an hour earlier I'd have one less loss and one more win. -- Since you only took 2 trades, are you filtering your entries in some way? Are you only opening one position at a time?
  • #288
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:50am Jan 30, 2008 9:50am
Qman

Only setting I see is maxlong and maxshort which each one is set to 1.

Thanks
Mombone
  • #289
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:56am Jan 30, 2008 9:56am
Qman
no filtering same technique as laid out by jr
and yes only 1 trade at a time
what I tend to do is wait for the market to clear all 3 MA`s
and then wait for the next bar to open and close
this must`nt touch any of the MA`s
then I pull the trigger
as long as the AC and AO are the same colour aswell
  • #290
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:57am Jan 30, 2008 9:57am
Well I'm not 100% certain about it, but above those is MaxLots. It comes set defaulted to 1, I think. My thought was that that would govern the total number of positions open -- maybe not. So, if you have a long position open, and you get a short signal, and MaxLots was set to 1, I thought it wouldn't open the new position since it already had an open Long. It isn't documented yet so I'm not sure if I got it right. Check your setting. If you have it at 1 and it is still opening opposing positions my assumptions would be wrong and we'll have to wait for Hayseed to clarify.

Quoting Mombone
Qman

Only setting I see is maxlong and maxshort which each one is set to 1.

Thanks
Mombone
  • #291
  • Jan 30, 2008 10:02am Jan 30, 2008 10:02am
right now on gbp/jpy 18:00 bar
if this doesnt touch the 13 MA
then I would be long at the end of this bar
  • #292
  • Jan 30, 2008 10:03am Jan 30, 2008 10:03am
Funny, it is pretty hard to keep up with JR. The latest rendition is that price must close outside the channel. I don't think the 100 MA is part of the process anymore. So, when you say you must clear all 3 MAs I think that puts you on with some older rules. ... I like you other filters though. We'll see how they pan out. They could be good additions. I'll leave that to Jr to work through.

I have to start getting ready for work... So I may be less responsive for awhile.

Quoting croesesFX
Qman
no filtering same technique as laid out by jr
and yes only 1 trade at a time
what I tend to do is wait for the market to clear all 3 MA`s
and then wait for the next bar to open and close
this must`nt touch any of the MA`s
then I pull the trigger
as long as the AC and AO are the same colour aswell
  • #293
  • Jan 30, 2008 10:04am Jan 30, 2008 10:04am
Quoting Qman
Well I'm not 100% certain about it, but above those is MaxLots. It comes set defaulted to 1, I think. My thought was that that would govern the total number of positions open -- maybe not. So, if you have a long position open, and you get a short signal, and MaxLots was set to 1, I thought it wouldn't open the new position since it already had an open Long. It isn't documented yet so I'm not sure if I got it right. Check your setting. If you have it at 1 and it is still opening opposing positions my assumptions would be wrong and we'll have to wait for Hayseed to clarify.
I see that now. Mine came set at 5. Will change to 1 and see what happens. Of course if it goes other way am I now on wrong side of trade. Maybe if it could be set to close open trade when opposite trade appears?

Thanks
Mombone
  • #294
  • Jan 30, 2008 10:05am Jan 30, 2008 10:05am
Quoting croesesFX
right now on gbp/jpy 18:00 bar
if this doesnt touch the 13 MA
then I would be long at the end of this bar
long 213.41
  • #295
  • Jan 30, 2008 10:14am Jan 30, 2008 10:14am
Mombone - The MAs are intended to keep you from being whipsawed. I think if you could set this up as a Stop and Reverse (SAR) like you are suggesting you would possible have whipsaw problems too.

The bottom line is this is a trend catching system. If there is no trend in the timefram you are in then you will be whipsawed. That is where we are right now. Not the best time to be using this system... but you can't easily know in advance when market conditions will change. So the EA programming tries to find parameters that allow you to survive the less optimal times so you can make up for it when you market and timeframe DO start to trend.

CrossesFX - The EA entered me long at 213.41 as well... Sadly, it also has me short at 213.17. (Since I'm allowing me to enter up to 2 trades at a time).
  • #296
  • Jan 30, 2008 10:16am Jan 30, 2008 10:16am
Hey guys,

Why not just adjust this setting....


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1201709709
Attached Image
  • #297
  • Jan 30, 2008 11:00am Jan 30, 2008 11:00am
Jr, while that is an option, it defeats most of my purposes for running an EA. I would have to monitor the market for trend reversals and restart the EA each time I saw that. In the current GJ environment it probably won't make a difference anyway because we are consolidating here. Today is probably a porr day to trade until after the Fed announcement anyway... and maybe for a couple of hours after that even. At this point I don't think we'll move more than +/- 100 pips until after the announcement. All positions are likely to just languish here for awhile. With a 50 pip SL and a 100 pip ranging market, that means there could be considerable "pain" in here. My current Long is down 22, and my current Short is down 10. Channel and longer term MAs have a slight upward bias.

For what it is worth, I see on a 4 hour chart where we have crossed and held (for 2 days now) a break of the centerline of a broad channel. Been awhile since it was up here and held this long (price crossed the centerline 4 weeks ago and hasn't crossed back for more than 4 hours since). If we break above 214 I think we'll see 216+ (top of the channel is sitting around 220 right now).

I'm seeing biases then to the upside, and I might be tempted to only take long trades... But who knows what the Fed will do, right? Oh, and that channel.... definitely downward sloping.

Anyway, the point of working on a 5 minute chart is to not be thinking of such large timeframe trends. The key is, is the market trending in the timeframe you are trading. For us on a 5M chart right now... not enough to make money. We are ranging. We'd make money if we were taking opposite positions... expecting every breakout to be false.

But the EA is intended to codify an approach. I do think this system will make lots of money once the market decides where it wants to go.

I think I should just set up to only have one position open at a time though, for now.

Jr, how are you set up?
  • #298
  • Jan 30, 2008 11:19am Jan 30, 2008 11:19am
hey qman..... It is interesting how as soon as the winning position closed a new position was opened in the same direction. I expected this because I understand how this is programmed, but others might not anticipate that so I mention it here

that is my error, it shouldn't be like that..... all my computers have been tied up running huge backtests for days now and i sent that ea to jr without backtesting it..... otherwise i would have caught the error..... we took out all reference to the 100, when i did that apparently i took out the code responsible for keeping that immeadiate reentry from being possible.....

on a larger time frame reentrys are benifical, on small time frames they can be a killer...... might be wise to hold up using the v4 until i correct my error.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #299
  • Jan 30, 2008 11:40am Jan 30, 2008 11:40am
I think you are right. I'm shutting it down. I have to go to work now anyway. I'll be checking in throughout the day.

Also wondering if you can put some control in so that it won't take a trade when it is initially turned on if the price is already outside the channel. That caused my first loss. I would prefer if it waits to get a close back inside the channel first. Others might disagree, and there could be times you wouldn't want to wait (I guess...), so maybe that could be an external variable option set at startup... Just a thought. Thanks.
  • #300
  • Edited 2:44pm Jan 30, 2008 12:35pm | Edited 2:44pm
Quoting Qman
Jr, while that is an option, it defeats most of my purposes for running an EA. I would have to monitor the market for trend reversals and restart the EA each time I saw that. In the current GJ environment it probably won't make a difference anyway because we are consolidating here. Today is probably a porr day to trade until after the Fed announcement anyway... and maybe for a couple of hours after that even. At this point I don't think we'll move more than +/- 100 pips until after the announcement. All positions are likely to just languish here for awhile. With a 50 pip SL and a 100 pip ranging market, that means there could be considerable "pain" in here. My current Long is down 22, and my current Short is down 10. Channel and longer term MAs have a slight upward bias.

For what it is worth, I see on a 4 hour chart where we have crossed and held (for 2 days now) a break of the centerline of a broad channel. Been awhile since it was up here and held this long (price crossed the centerline 4 weeks ago and hasn't crossed back for more than 4 hours since). If we break above 214 I think we'll see 216+ (top of the channel is sitting around 220 right now).

I'm seeing biases then to the upside, and I might be tempted to only take long trades... But who knows what the Fed will do, right? Oh, and that channel.... definitely downward sloping.

Anyway, the point of working on a 5 minute chart is to not be thinking of such large timeframe trends. The key is, is the market trending in the timeframe you are trading. For us on a 5M chart right now... not enough to make money. We are ranging. We'd make money if we were taking opposite positions... expecting every breakout to be false.

But the EA is intended to codify an approach. I do think this system will make lots of money once the market decides where it wants to go.

I think I should just set up to only have one position open at a time though, for now.

Jr, how are you set up?
Hey Qman, I could not agree with you more. This system, if we can even call it that right now, needs work. One thing I like about the EA, is that the MA parameters can be changed in order to find a better way. I have even gone so far as to change the 13/13 parameters to 600/600, 70/80ma on a 30 minute chart with pretty good results. The problem here is knowing the trend at the moment is key. And as we all know, that trend can turn right when you least expect it. Anyway, I am going to look for a winning formula for past results, and I will have to go from there.

Hey, if someone out there has an idea for a filter, where only the longs will go into trade versas the Shorts, or vise versa, please share.

I toyed with the RSI for a little bit. One idea, is put a 50 input line with the 5 period. From there, only the
Long trades/Short trades on whatever side of the 50 take. I don't know if something like this is programmable.....but anyway, I will continue to test on.

Please, don't anyone get confused. 13/13 is still the settings. Paragraph 1 is just...once again "Brain Storming".
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