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  • #121
  • Jan 24, 2008 8:38pm Jan 24, 2008 8:38pm
Yes overall highest point (of the bull market) i.e. 14109.10 - 10% = 12778.29

That is the classical definition of a correction, 10%. At some point when it goes beyond then it is no longer just a correction but a bear market. I believe it is 20% off the high for a bear market.

But depending on who you asked and what time of the day and "what side of the bed they got out on" will vary how much beyond a correction for some to call it a bear market.
  • #122
  • Jan 25, 2008 1:32am Jan 25, 2008 1:32am
Quoting SunTrader
Yes overall highest point (of the bull market) i.e. 14109.10 - 10% = 12778.29

That is the classical definition of a correction, 10%. At some point when it goes beyond then it is no longer just a correction but a bear market. I believe it is 20% off the high for a bear market.

But depending on who you asked and what time of the day and "what side of the bed they got out on" will vary how much beyond a correction for some to call it a bear market.
Below 20% off the historical high is the classic definition of bear market, which doesn't mean that after this level we must lose hope...

Some indexes around the world entered the bear market level, some didn't (like Dow). And there are those who have called it a bottom and those who haven't.

It's a wait and see period, imo. Until all the US measures and future economic data show the way
  • #123
  • Jan 25, 2008 7:52am Jan 25, 2008 7:52am
Quoting SunTrader
Or just being the usual stubborn strong-will Germans that they are.

Americans are not going to determine how we run the ECB. We will show them, harumfp. We will count to ten and then cut.
Maybe it's the stubborn Germans that took out Prodi after voicing his opinions about ECB policy.
  • #124
  • Jan 25, 2008 8:06am Jan 25, 2008 8:06am
I'm an idiot when it comes to stocks so please forgive me in advance....let me ask this...who cares, bull market or bear.....don't you buy individual stocks based on that companies performnce or future performance...and if every other stock is going the other way, who cares? Like I said, I have never owned a stock so I know nothing..........and why is the number for a bear market so arbitrary? some say 10% some say 20%....do they know nothing of Fibonacci?
  • #125
  • Jan 25, 2008 9:08am Jan 25, 2008 9:08am
Quoting Learntocount
.....don't you buy individual stocks based on that companies performnce or future performance...and if every other stock is going the other way, who cares?
well all stocks are correlated to some extent. some say that 60% of a stocks price comes from the overall market. so yeah, even a great stock can fall in a bear market. how well correlated the stock is can be roughly judged with soemthing called "beta". a beta of 1.5 means that when the overall market moves up 1%, the stock moves up 1.5% (on average). beta is really a measurement for how volatile a stock is compared to the overall market, but it also illustrates correlation in price movement.
Relax and be happy.
  • #126
  • Jan 25, 2008 9:11am Jan 25, 2008 9:11am
question of the day... do we sell this rally going into the weekend?? its a tough call, but if i have to chose, im a seller.
Relax and be happy.
  • #127
  • Jan 25, 2008 9:15am Jan 25, 2008 9:15am
Quoting merlin
well all stocks are correlated to some extent. some say that 60% of a stocks price comes from the overall market. so yeah, even a great stock can fall in a bear market. how well correlated the stock is can be roughly judged with soemthing called "beta". a beta of 1.5 means that when the overall market moves up 1%, the stock moves up 1.5% (on average). beta is really a measurement for how volatile a stock is compared to the overall market, but it also illustrates correlation in price movement.
Is that why when guys who are "stock market" guys come to Forex they get waxed for a while or end up leaving???? thats two totally different mindsets.......
  • #128
  • Jan 25, 2008 9:22am Jan 25, 2008 9:22am
Quoting merlin
question of the day... do we sell this rally going into the weekend?? its a tough call, but if i have to chose, im a seller.
3rd day up.
  • #129
  • Jan 25, 2008 9:24am Jan 25, 2008 9:24am
Quoting Learntocount
Is that why when guys who are "stock market" guys come to Forex they get waxed for a while or end up leaving????
could be. but i would say if they left stocks, they probably left for a reason (ie they were losing money).
Relax and be happy.
  • #130
  • Jan 25, 2008 9:26am Jan 25, 2008 9:26am
Quoting merlin
question of the day... do we sell this rally going into the weekend?? its a tough call, but if i have to chose, im a seller.


Wot, the wizard is selling the DJI? *runs to buy 5000 contracts JPY* ;p

Maybe think of the DJI as USDJPY and the stocks as the crosses?

IMHO a good parallel...USDJPY is the main driver, the other stuff just gets dragged along

P.S. is it a coincidence Gold rallies off 850$ and Oil is rallying from 85.xx$? CONSPIRACY!
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #131
  • Jan 25, 2008 9:30am Jan 25, 2008 9:30am
Quoting SeekingLight
Wot, the wizard is selling the DJI? *runs to buy 5000 contracts JPY* ;p

Maybe think of the DJI as USDJPY and the stocks as the crosses?

IMHO a good parallel...USDJPY is the main driver, the other stuff just gets dragged along
One day the tail wags the dog, the next it is the other way around.

Pick your poison.
  • #132
  • Jan 25, 2008 10:05am Jan 25, 2008 10:05am
Quoting merlin
question of the day... do we sell this rally going into the weekend?? its a tough call, but if i have to chose, im a seller.
wow, nice call...

I'm sidelined since this morning... I'm not "buying" this whole optimism...

To me, "there is something rotten in the state of Denmark"

I just can't figure out what it is.
  • #133
  • Jan 25, 2008 10:07am Jan 25, 2008 10:07am
Quoting cesarnc
wow, nice call...

I'm sidelined since this morning... I'm not "buying" this whole optimism...

To me, "there is something rotten in the state of Denmark"

I just can't figure out what it is.
Damn, I may have found the rotten something

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Banks may need to raise as much as $143 billion to meet regulators' requirements should rating firms downgrade bond insurers, Barclays Capital analysts said.
  • #134
  • Jan 29, 2008 10:37am Jan 29, 2008 10:37am
well it looks like we are hitting some kind of support here, unfortunately i think the fun may be over

Quoting cesarnc
Damn, I may have found the rotten something
yeah that sure was a stinker! somebody opened the spigot of bad news for the banks and i dont think they will get it shut for another year at least. the banking sector is rotten to the core at the moment
Relax and be happy.
  • #135
  • Jan 29, 2008 10:53am Jan 29, 2008 10:53am
Quoting merlin
i think the fun may be over


I'm gonna give it 2 weeks to sort itself out; either by then we'll have long blasted back above what I thought of as "won't revisit me soon" or we'll have new lows. Roughly 2-3 weeks is my wild guess.

VERY curious about this week's close in/on everything.
Keeping the lid on tight; now is not the time for high risk maneuvers.
Still plenty of poaching to be had on the small game though
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #136
  • Jan 29, 2008 6:37pm Jan 29, 2008 6:37pm
Quoting SeekingLight


I'm gonna give it 2 weeks to sort itself out; either by then we'll have long blasted back above what I thought of as "won't revisit me soon" or we'll have new lows. Roughly 2-3 weeks is my wild guess.
The wall street journal is moving, change is in the air.
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/d...rnal_relocates

3rd /4th feb strength comes.
Look to 03.45 GMT 7th feb. Things will become more intentional again.
Whatever happens look for it to peak/overextend at autumn equinox.

Stranger things have happened..................

Personally sun and moon are way more interesting than bloomberg and carry a lot more gravity.
GOD IS NOT SHORT OF CASH
  • #137
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:08am Jan 30, 2008 9:08am
this slide should have been much more fun that it was, im feeling let down. its all the PPTs fault, they are ruinin all the fun!!!!

LOL!!
Relax and be happy.
  • #138
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:10am Jan 30, 2008 9:10am
Quoting merlin
this slide should have been much more fun that it was, im feeling let down. its all the PPTs fault, they are ruinin all the fun!!!!

LOL!!
Hey it ain't over till the Fed sings... LOL
  • #139
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:24am Jan 30, 2008 9:24am


true true!
Relax and be happy.
  • #140
  • Jan 30, 2008 10:11am Jan 30, 2008 10:11am
But is the tune 25 bps or 50 bps. Think 25 myself.
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