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  • #61
  • Jan 29, 2008 8:28am Jan 29, 2008 8:28am
There are a lot of traders who use:

RSI
Stochastics
MA's
Pivots
Fibs
Trendlines
Whole Numbers
Elliott
Gann

and many others techniques.

Yet it has been said about them all that they are self-fulfilling. How can that be? It can't be. Each work to a certain extent. And each fail to a certain extent. It is up to the trader to determine which works better, for them. And to use proper trade and money management to succeed. And not worry if it is self-fulfilling or not.
  • #62
  • Jan 29, 2008 8:36am Jan 29, 2008 8:36am
Quoting SunTrader
There are a lot of traders who use:

RSI
Stochastics
MA's
Pivots
Fibs
Trendlines
Whole Numbers
Elliott
Gann

and many others techniques.

Yet it has been said about them all that they are self-fulfilling. How can that be? It can't be.
Being a naked trader advocate, maybe I am qualified to answer this.

No matter which way you cut the cake, all these indicators and lines are based on past and present price action. The more indicators you look at the older your data. What does overbought mean to me? Nothing. I've looked at RSI for years and I've seen it be overbought for weeks, and I've seen it do what it's supposed to do in overbought conditions. What's really important is what the price is doing, not what value your RSI is doing between 0 and 100. Price is virtually infinite, why limit yourself?

And my opinion about lines, trendlines, and fibs is that if you draw a line in the sand, there's bound to be a critter that crosses it eventually. Same goes with price. Try it on your chart. Pick 3 random horizontal lines, and buy above, and sell below. Looks like the same kind of fib success that anyone else gets....

Just my oh so humble opinions
  • #63
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:02am Jan 29, 2008 9:02am
Quoting kharvell
Being a naked trader advocate, maybe I am qualified to answer this.

No matter which way you cut the cake, all these indicators and lines are based on past and present price action. The more indicators you look at the older your data. What does overbought mean to me? Nothing. I've looked at RSI for years and I've seen it be overbought for weeks, and I've seen it do what it's supposed to do in overbought conditions. What's really important is what the price is doing, not what value your RSI is doing between 0 and 100. Price is virtually infinite, why limit yourself?

And my opinion about lines, trendlines, and fibs is that if you draw a line in the sand, there's bound to be a critter that crosses it eventually. Same goes with price. Try it on your chart. Pick 3 random horizontal lines, and buy above, and sell below. Looks like the same kind of fib success that anyone else gets....

Just my oh so humble opinions
I agree. I am not advocating use of any on that list. I am disputing that they all could be self-fulfilling at the same time. Thats all.
  • #64
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:04am Jan 29, 2008 9:04am
Quoting SunTrader
There are a lot of traders who use:

RSI
Stochastics
MA's
Pivots
Fibs
Trendlines
Whole Numbers
Elliott
Gann

and many others techniques.

Yet it has been said about them all that they are self-fulfilling. How can that be? It can't be. Each work to a certain extent. And each fail to a certain extent. It is up to the trader to determine which works better, for them. And to use proper trade and money management to succeed. And not worry if it is self-fulfilling or not.
I think pivots in futures trading may come the closest to being universally used and could fill the bill as a self fulfilling prophesy.

They aren't in forex because there is no consensus on what time of day to plot them.
The futures market starts and ends at specific times every day and everybody's pivots look the same.

The rest of the things you list are ambiguous and dependent on too many variables.
The exception is round numbers, and I haven't seen them work in any predictive fashion.
  • #65
  • Jan 29, 2008 10:29am Jan 29, 2008 10:29am
200 ema HATERS. You just never looked at one on your charts have you?
If you have then you would see that it is used as either support or resistance over and over and over again on any pair on any time frame. Now isn't that enough to consider it a valuable piece of information?
Just Trade It
  • #66
  • Jan 29, 2008 11:19am Jan 29, 2008 11:19am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
200 ema HATERS.
Haters?

Get your weird wording straight and calm down, bro. This is a friendly and relaxed discussion. No need for emotions or even crusades ...
  • #67
  • Jan 29, 2008 11:24am Jan 29, 2008 11:24am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
200 ema HATERS. You just never looked at one on your charts have you?
If you have then you would see that it is used as either support or resistance over and over and over again on any pair on any time frame. Now isn't that enough to consider it a valuable piece of information?
Hi BWR
Ur absolutley right,check the 200ema on 30 min Canadian since begining of year and the also check it on the 4hr as well
Lots of touches
But u have to know what to do when it hits the 200ema!!
regards
baz
  • #68
  • Jan 29, 2008 11:33am Jan 29, 2008 11:33am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
You just never looked at one on your charts have you? If you have then you would see that it is used as either support or resistance over and over and over again on any pair on any time frame.
BWR,

Did you bother to look at post #45 which shows daily cable chart for the last year where 200 XMA was "support" once. I won't bother but if you look at EU there was two times in the past year where 200 xma was "support".

Like watching paint dry waiting for the touches to happen.

Sun
  • #69
  • Jan 29, 2008 11:42am Jan 29, 2008 11:42am
Quoting Alderlug
What is the secret of 200 EMA? It's called self fulfilling prophecy. Almost everybody thinks this EMA is very important ... and therefore it is in fact important ...
yes I believe you are right
but that is true of everything in FX
RSI oversold ... why ?
because a lot of people see it & say its oversold
etc.

TEB
  • #70
  • Jan 29, 2008 12:12pm Jan 29, 2008 12:12pm
Quoting SunTrader
BWR,

Did you bother to look at post #45 which shows daily cable chart for the last year where 200 XMA was "support" once. I won't bother but if you look at EU there was two times in the past year where 200 xma was "support".

Like watching paint dry waiting for the touches to happen.

Sun

I said any time frame, If you go down you will see it was touched alot more.
(that does not sound right) I mean a shorter time frame provides more support and resistance levels Ok that sounds better.
Sorry we are hijacking your thread TEB, I will stop now.
Just Trade It
  • #71
  • Jan 29, 2008 12:23pm Jan 29, 2008 12:23pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
I said any time frame, If you go down you will see it was touched alot more.
(that does not sound right) I mean a shorter time frame provides more support and resistance levels Ok that sounds better.
Sorry we are hijacking your thread TEB, I will stop now.
cool by me everyone have fun
just everyone play nice

TEB
  • #72
  • Jan 29, 2008 12:25pm Jan 29, 2008 12:25pm
Quoting SunTrader
BWR,

Did you bother to look at post #45 which shows daily cable chart for the last year where 200 XMA was "support" once. I won't bother but if you look at EU there was two times in the past year where 200 xma was "support".

Like watching paint dry waiting for the touches to happen.

Sun
you have never heard bears sell below the 200 & bulls buy above?

TEB
  • #73
  • Edited 2:33pm Jan 29, 2008 12:44pm | Edited 2:33pm
Quoting kharvell
Being a naked trader advocate, maybe I am qualified to answer this.

No matter which way you cut the cake, all these indicators and lines are based on past and present price action. The more indicators you look at the older your data. What does overbought mean to me? Nothing. I've looked at RSI for years and I've seen it be overbought for weeks, and I've seen it do what it's supposed to do in overbought conditions. What's really important is what the price is doing, not what value your RSI is doing between 0 and 100. Price is virtually infinite, why limit yourself?

And my opinion about lines, trendlines, and fibs is that if you draw a line in the sand, there's bound to be a critter that crosses it eventually. Same goes with price. Try it on your chart. Pick 3 random horizontal lines, and buy above, and sell below. Looks like the same kind of fib success that anyone else gets....

Just my oh so humble opinions
I am not sure what you are saying
are you say the market does't respect TL & Channels
& esp. swing highs & lows?
if so I disagree with you

if you say fibs & PP don't work in FX I agree . but for a differnent reason.

You see I know they do work in stock market and most other markets.
so why FX. the reason is very simple in the Stock market 5:00 pm EST is used by everyone
.. so we have an old boys club rule.

but in FX we have no such rule

The USA use 5:00pm - in line with their stock market
But the British are the big boys & they use their own time
so you have at least two sets of fibs & PP
& so it will not work well
& then you have all the FX teachers making money on other fibs & PP systems.

I use MA just to find the waves in the market
& they work well for that


Just my thoughts

TEB
  • #74
  • Jan 29, 2008 3:07pm Jan 29, 2008 3:07pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1122.gif Size: 35 KB

cable day chart

Best tools to see the future in the forex

in the chart above we see where the white & blue arrow is
we have ....
1. TL break
2. A swing hi break
3. strong big D

also we know price is bucking the trend
because price is over the 200ema on the week & month but below on this chart the day

That is likely as good a bet in the FX as you can make

TEB
  • #75
  • Jan 29, 2008 3:28pm Jan 29, 2008 3:28pm
Quoting TEB63
you have never heard bears sell below the 200 & bulls buy above?

TEB
Oh my bad. In a full year on the above mentioned daily Cable chart there is one point of support and one point of resistance. I stand corrected.

And believe me in close to 15 years of trading I have heard almost all the expressions.
  • #76
  • Jan 29, 2008 4:06pm Jan 29, 2008 4:06pm
Quoting SunTrader
Oh my bad. In a full year on the above mentioned daily Cable chart there is one point of support and one point of resistance. I stand corrected.

And believe me in close to 15 years of trading I have heard almost all the expressions.

I understand what you are saying
& what you are saying is right
but so is what I am saying.

we clearly look at trading differentally & that is okay
I look at trading from trend so what you are say is not only ok its great!!

where I think you likely want to trade the breaks which is also great
& so you would never use such a hi MA

so we are both right to how we trade & wronge to the other way

But 95% of MM & banks do have a 200 ma on their charts believe me

any cheers & thanks for your thoughts

TEB

but

we
  • #77
  • Jan 29, 2008 4:17pm Jan 29, 2008 4:17pm
Quoting kharvell
Being a naked trader advocate, maybe I am qualified to answer this.

No matter which way you cut the cake, all these indicators and lines are based on past and present price action. The more indicators you look at the older your data. What does overbought mean to me? Nothing. I've looked at RSI for years and I've seen it be overbought for weeks, and I've seen it do what it's supposed to do in overbought conditions. What's really important is what the price is doing, not what value your RSI is doing between 0 and 100. Price is virtually infinite, why limit yourself?

And my opinion about lines, trendlines, and fibs is that if you draw a line in the sand, there's bound to be a critter that crosses it eventually. Same goes with price. Try it on your chart. Pick 3 random horizontal lines, and buy above, and sell below. Looks like the same kind of fib success that anyone else gets....

Just my oh so humble opinions
What are your thoughts on pivot points? using the values from the previous day to seek opportunities the next day.
  • #78
  • Jan 29, 2008 4:50pm Jan 29, 2008 4:50pm
Quoting AmeriTrini
What are your thoughts on pivot points? using the values from the previous day to seek opportunities the next day.
swing highs & swings low yes
but what is the start & close of the day
that is the problem with pp?

TEB
  • #79
  • Jan 29, 2008 5:07pm Jan 29, 2008 5:07pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chartgood.gif Size: 38 KB


Cable day chart

in the chart above we see where the white & blue arrow is
we have ....
1. TL break
2. A swing hi break
3. strong big D

also we know price is bucking the trend
because price is over the 200ema on this chart( day)
But on the week & month price is over the 200ema

That is likely as good a bet in the FX as you can make
TEB
  • #80
  • Jan 29, 2008 5:10pm Jan 29, 2008 5:10pm
Quoting TEB63
swing highs & swings low yes
but what is the start & close of the day
that is the problem with pp?

TEB
well, the start of the day is the previous day's close (hmmmm, you should know this one), the close is what we don't know, but does that matter?
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