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GBP/JPY for QQE Traders!

  • #701
  • Jan 29, 2008 2:15am Jan 29, 2008 2:15am
  • #702
  • Jan 29, 2008 2:16am Jan 29, 2008 2:16am
Quoting ammaramani
Nasty downturn there.
  • #703
  • Jan 29, 2008 2:24am Jan 29, 2008 2:24am
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Nasty downturn there.
as long 15m mt4 not reverse and bar still form 1 hr G should able give sight for north....if not


"Decision need patience and opportunity to align"
  • #704
  • Jan 29, 2008 2:26am Jan 29, 2008 2:26am
Well good luck everybody. It's past midnight here, and I need some sleep. Hope the beast is reasonably kind to us today!
  • #705
  • Jan 29, 2008 2:31am Jan 29, 2008 2:31am
dont know much, but isn't true that when stocks are mostly up, gb/jp goes up??
  • #706
  • Jan 29, 2008 2:52am Jan 29, 2008 2:52am
Quoting judith
dont know much, but isn't true that when stocks are mostly up, gb/jp goes up??
things are going to be strange here I think.
Fed may cut rate another .5 on Weds.
Markets are just ranging due to this I think.
If that is the case, the UJ will rise up towards 110, causing this to go up/long as well.....

we'll see what happens......

The Beast is riding this ascending TL up, from back at 204.
It has been tested time and again and not one close below it.

Maybe we'll still get up to 213 tonight/this am/today..... ( it's 1am PST to me...;-)
  • #707
  • Jan 29, 2008 4:45am Jan 29, 2008 4:45am
Quoting kujo17
things are going to be strange here I think.
Fed may cut rate another .5 on Weds.
Markets are just ranging due to this I think.
If that is the case, the UJ will rise up towards 110, causing this to go up/long as well.....

we'll see what happens......

The Beast is riding this ascending TL up, from back at 204.
It has been tested time and again and not one close below it.

Maybe we'll still get up to 213 tonight/this am/today..... ( it's 1am PST to me...;-)
Isn't cutting rates going to influence the risk aversion, which would cause the carry trades to drop ?
  • #708
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:19am Jan 29, 2008 9:19am
Quoting Pirin
Isn't cutting rates going to influence the risk aversion, which would cause the carry trades to drop ?
Yes you're right, it is supposed to be like that. You can also check the VIX economic indicator that gauges the risk aversion of investors on options in the US . This is kind of a benchmark for risk aversion as well.

"Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, which shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options. This volatility is meant to be forward looking and is calculated from both calls and puts. The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge".

Just an additional information since we're talking about risk aversion, and therefore carry trades...

Cheers
  • #709
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:23am Jan 29, 2008 9:23am
Quoting kujo17
Long from 211.30 and 212.17

213.5 is my TP.

Been a slow day.... hope it picks up here.
Hey Kujo !
Didn't touch neither of our TP levels: 213.5 for you, 214.00 for me. I put a traling stop though, so I got out at 212.85, making some pips out of it.
Hope it will move up by the end of the day for you.

I'll have a look at your trading strategy today, and I might come back to you to have further indications...
Thanks for sharing!

Cheers
  • #710
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:28am Jan 29, 2008 9:28am
Quoting judith
dont know much, but isn't true that when stocks are mostly up, gb/jp goes up??
That's right too.
When stocks are up, investors' confidence is higher, therefore they are more willing to undertake risk, and are therefore less risk averse.
They then invest in carry trades that are seen as quite risky investment, therefore GBP/JPY is going north.
  • #711
  • Edited 6:53pm Jan 29, 2008 9:30am | Edited 6:53pm
Price has been doing some bouncing around. I think it was financial news, and early Dow gitters. The US news was mixed, but leaning toward the positive. Yesterday the Nikkei stock market was up, and the European market was up. Now the Dow is in positive territory. I don't see anything here to suggest that price will nose dive. Let's watch . . .
  • #712
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:34am Jan 29, 2008 9:34am
London pivots are being respected. We haven't had a close under the pivot point, and price went little past R1 earlier.
Attached Image
  • #713
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:43am Jan 29, 2008 9:43am
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Price has been doing some bouncing around. I think it was financial news, and pre-Dow gitters. The US news was mixed, but leaning toward the positive. Yesterday the Nikkei stock market was up, and the European market was up. Now the Dow is opening in positive territory. I don't see anything here to suggest that price will nose dive. Let's watch . . .
Yes I agree, and that could also refer to the post I wrote before regarding stock markets and GY correlation.

Nice to see you woke up Pips Cruiser !
Looking fwd to seeing your graph daily analysis, it's the official newsletter of the thread
  • #714
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:46am Jan 29, 2008 9:46am
Quoting Michi
Yes I agree, and that could also refer to the post I wrote before regarding stock markets and GY correlation.

Nice to see you woke up Pips Cruiser !
Looking fwd to seeing your graph daily analysis, it's the official newsletter of the thread
Nice to see you here. I thought you did a good job of answering that question. Let's see what the day brings us!

  • #715
  • Jan 29, 2008 10:21am Jan 29, 2008 10:21am
Here are the NY daily pivots:
Attached Image
  • #716
  • Jan 29, 2008 11:16am Jan 29, 2008 11:16am
Michi,

I don't know why, but right before I headed to bed, I dropped it to 213.40 because the night before, at 214.8, my TPs were missed by 10 and it cost me.

Well, they were hit last night.....to the PIP.

So, I was excited when I got up, after going to bed at 3am and waking up at 7 with my son......

I think today's gonna be a boring day...... everyone awaiting the Feds decision tomorrow.
  • #717
  • Jan 29, 2008 11:53am Jan 29, 2008 11:53am
Quoting kujo17
Michi,

I don't know why, but right before I headed to bed, I dropped it to 213.40 because the night before, at 214.8, my TPs were missed by 10 and it cost me.

Well, they were hit last night.....to the PIP.

So, I was excited when I got up, after going to bed at 3am and waking up at 7 with my son......

I think today's gonna be a boring day...... everyone awaiting the Feds decision tomorrow.
Well done then !
I wish I could be as accurate as you are...
Yes the market is just ranging within the 212's bounds, we'll have to wait until tomorrow to get some more volatility!
  • #718
  • Jan 29, 2008 11:56am Jan 29, 2008 11:56am
Quoting Michi
Well done then !
I wish I could be as accurate as you are...
Yes the market is just ranging within the 212's bounds, we'll have to wait until tomorrow to get some more volatility!
Accurate ? That was just sheer Luck.
I was pissed for having my TPs missed by 10-15pips the night before and it ended up costing me 65 pips, as I set a Trailing stop to protect.

So, I just dropped my TP 10 and set my TS to 55 instead of 65 and it hit.
Dead Nuts !!!

Just luck, as it was an arbitrary number, below the R2 line.

You know what they say, even the sun shines on a dogs.............. ;-)
  • #719
  • Jan 29, 2008 12:00pm Jan 29, 2008 12:00pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
Price has been doing some bouncing around. I think it was financial news, and pre-Dow gitters. The US news was mixed, but leaning toward the positive. Yesterday the Nikkei stock market was up, and the European market was up. Now the Dow is opening in positive territory. I don't see anything here to suggest that price will nose dive. Let's watch . . .
I think she'll slowly range UP.
There has been a VERY strong TL building from 204 up.
It's been tested many many times on many TFs and never broken.

If she breaks this, I'm short for sure and it's got to run down to 208 area.

But, I think we're just gonna twiddle our thumbs most of the day.
We need to be mindful that the Fed could suprise everyone and drop the bomb before the stock market closes today as well.......
  • #720
  • Edited 7:19pm Jan 29, 2008 12:05pm | Edited 7:19pm
I also see a lackluster day ahead with lots of ranging. No compelling technicals or fundamentals going on. QQE's are mixed, with lower time frames looking slightly bearish at the moment. But they're reacting to price, and price is reacting to the Dow. Be careful holding longs today going into Asian session. For the past week we've had price dips during it's early hours. I'm starting to suspect it's short term carry trades being cashed in.

Here's an enlarged G/J 15M chart and a chart of today's Dow. The dip in the Dow is what brought G/J price down to 211.70 (indirectly via U/J) and turned our lower time frame QQE's bearish.

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Click to Enlarge Name: 15m_am.jpg Size: 131 KB
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