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Bagovino Method

  • #1,421
  • Jan 9, 2007 5:36pm Jan 9, 2007 5:36pm
To trade successfully you need to exploit your edge. Your edge is the system that matches your psyche. There are too many consistantly profitable traders in the world to call it "gambling". Even the few winning gamblers have an edge not luck. If you are blaming luck then you still haven't studied what you are doing. You seem to be looking for an alibi for your failures.

I am a southern whitetail deer hunter (apologies to you vegans out there)There are days in the woods that you will not see a deer. You don't just fire at anything that moves. That would be irresponsible and dangerous. Then there are times when you just may miss the opportunity...he spots you, turns and is gone. Then there are rare times (should be never) that you miss when you do fire. However, there are those moments when it all falls into place. The deer strolls into range, you wait calmly for the sure shot and pull the trigger. There's meat on the table. Usually more than 100 lbs of it. Fill your legal limit and you will eat all year (in Kentucky).

The Holy Grail is what will and does work for you. Stay on the demo account until you become consistantly profitable. Then move on to the dollar size...then eventually you may be trading $100 per pip.

BTW, call it chaos? I have a book named "Trading Chaos". There are times when chaos is predictable, just look at the Madelbrot set. It makes a beautiful pattern in chaos.

Quoting amanuel
If you beleive in your system, then place a wide stop.

But guess what, wide stop makes the win / loose ratio look pretty bad because you will get stopped sooner or later and all the profit will be gone.
You can not put 40 pip stop to get 10 pips.

If you make the stop loss close, then you will be whipsawed.


I have yet to hear from a succesful trader using any method..it is all luck.
I have seen bagovino, sidus, WW, you name it.

no one knows when a bank will unload any currency for what ever reason.


Do you think they will look at the moving averages before deciding what to do, lol?

all of this is gambling- it may give you success for few days, then the profit ( if you had any) will get wiped out via whipsaw or wide stop.


As far as odds however, it is better than lotto and bingo


How can one master a chaos ? There are no rules, and no holy grail.

I like FF however for trying.
"Though this be madness, yet there is method in it." -Hamlet Act II
  • #1,422
  • Jan 9, 2007 5:40pm Jan 9, 2007 5:40pm
I've had some good Asian trade experiences too but I consider it the hardest time to trade. If you can make it during the Asian then you should be successful anytime.

Quoting sabotai
I try to trade us and asian sessions. I usually end up just doing the Asain though since I work during the day. I feel even with this bogo system you have to really feel the trades and feel how the market is going. I am not sure how else to put that.. If i see a really hectic market doing alot of spikes you know sooner or later it is going to normalize then I tend to jump on that trend. It is like using some good Indicators which is all these things are then using your instinct and ability to determine real possible trends... You have to spot the things that just look like false signals. I usually jump down to 30 min and 15 mins for indicators of where things could be heading. I try to trade the SAFEST signals I can. If a signal to me doesnt feel right I will not trade it. I usually trade at the rate of around 500 a pip so wins are big but so are losses. I have had up to 5 $500 a pip trades going at a time. I honestly do not shoot to make alot of pips just safe ones. 30 pips to me is 15k in a month and I am happy with that.
"Though this be madness, yet there is method in it." -Hamlet Act II
  • #1,423
  • Jan 9, 2007 7:16pm Jan 9, 2007 7:16pm
Hey folks. I'm new to this thread and FF, although not so new to FX.

I've tried backtesting the "Bagovino Method" as many kinds of ways as I can think of (ie >=50 RSI, Cross Over 50 RSI, 55 & 45 RSI, etc) and I can't get results of anything better than a 50% success rate with only a few trades over a few month period.

I'm going to do some reading on the Vegas method and see if I can implement it into my trading, but so far the Bago method seems pretty impotent.

It is important to note that currently I am trading net positive using candle patterns, trendlines, pivot points, fib #'s, and fundamentals.
  • #1,424
  • Jan 9, 2007 8:28pm Jan 9, 2007 8:28pm
Quoting Gee Seven
To trade successfully you need to exploit your edge. Your edge is the system that matches your psyche. There are too many consistantly profitable traders in the world to call it "gambling". Even the few winning gamblers have an edge not luck. If you are blaming luck then you still haven't studied what you are doing. You seem to be looking for an alibi for your failures.

I am a southern whitetail deer hunter (apologies to you vegans out there)There are days in the woods that you will not see a deer. You don't just fire at anything that moves. That would be irresponsible and dangerous. Then there are times when you just may miss the opportunity...he spots you, turns and is gone. Then there are rare times (should be never) that you miss when you do fire. However, there are those moments when it all falls into place. The deer strolls into range, you wait calmly for the sure shot and pull the trigger. There's meat on the table. Usually more than 100 lbs of it. Fill your legal limit and you will eat all year (in Kentucky).

The Holy Grail is what will and does work for you. Stay on the demo account until you become consistantly profitable. Then move on to the dollar size...then eventually you may be trading $100 per pip.

BTW, call it chaos? I have a book named "Trading Chaos". There are times when chaos is predictable, just look at the Madelbrot set. It makes a beautiful pattern in chaos.

Thank you for the advise.

FF rocks.

i am not giving up yet- i have had 2 years of demo and few live accounts- still learning.
definitly learning the mini live and demo "( slippage etc etc).

There is a way to become part of the 10% winners.

Again, thank you -
Pipology 101 student
  • #1,425
  • Jan 10, 2007 2:12pm Jan 10, 2007 2:12pm
Hello folks,backtesting any method is like taking a test you already have the answer to,be patient and forward test on a demo real time!!!!!!!!!
  • #1,426
  • Jan 12, 2007 4:05pm Jan 12, 2007 4:05pm
Hi guys,

Just wanted to see how everyone is doing. We had a few nice moves in the market lately. Did you guys grab some pips? I did.... 100 on GBP/USD last night!


Bago
"Skills pay the bill's!"
  • #1,427
  • Jan 16, 2007 1:47pm Jan 16, 2007 1:47pm
Hello guys, I am quiet happy so far. Since 5 days I have traded the bago method life (100 USD account) and so far no big losses. I am waiting for the signal, then (if I recognize it, because working fulltime and not all the time in front of my pc) ordering with a volum of around 1500 units. Setting the stop loss with 30 pips and the take profit with 10 pips. This works quiet well at the moment but I have not such a big goal so far. I am trying to survive a while.I started with 96 USD (because of oanda paypal taxes) and now I am at 100 USD, trying to get 10 pips a day (worth 1 USD). Ok, thats my report. Any suggestions?
  • #1,428
  • Jan 16, 2007 2:08pm Jan 16, 2007 2:08pm
Quoting swissfortune
Hello guys, I am quiet happy so far. Since 5 days I have traded the bago method life (100 USD account) and so far no big losses. I am waiting for the signal, then (if I recognize it, because working fulltime and not all the time in front of my pc) ordering with a volum of around 1500 units. Setting the stop loss with 30 pips and the take profit with 10 pips. This works quiet well at the moment but I have not such a big goal so far. I am trying to survive a while.I started with 96 USD (because of oanda paypal taxes) and now I am at 100 USD, trying to get 10 pips a day (worth 1 USD). Ok, thats my report. Any suggestions?
Try scaling in. Use both a 30min and 1hr chart with the Bago lines. Put in 1/4 of your units when the 30 min crosses, then if Bago 1hr confirms it put in the other 3/4. The key is as you say.. recognize it. Often times if you obey the rules 100%, the candle will be much too large to feel confident with the entry.
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
  • #1,429
  • Jan 16, 2007 11:51pm Jan 16, 2007 11:51pm
Quoting StockKJay
Try scaling in. Use both a 30min and 1hr chart with the Bago lines. Put in 1/4 of your units when the 30 min crosses, then if Bago 1hr confirms it put in the other 3/4. The key is as you say.. recognize it. Often times if you obey the rules 100%, the candle will be much too large to feel confident with the entry.
Thanks alot StockkJay, I`ll give this a try.
  • #1,430
  • Jan 17, 2007 8:43am Jan 17, 2007 8:43am
Al you Sidus Method lovers out there, here is my new version. Check it out and feedback it. THX!

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=13007
  • #1,431
  • Edited 12:59pm Jan 23, 2007 9:02am | Edited 12:59pm
After a few years of trading I can safely say that the most market influential indicators are the one followed by the highest number of traders. Of course trend lines are definitely and by far the most universally used trending tool and that is why the influence is so great, as millions get scared at the same time that the trade will reverse when the market hits a trend lines; longer time frame trend lines have the most influence, starting at 1H and higher (all of those should be identified on a chart).

I have been studying the method in here and I have observed that most trades that don’t work are in direct relation to trend line hit or major S/R levels, for this reason I think it would be a good advice to all traders to draw their major trend lines on their charts as these levels are usually good levels to cash-in a winning trade up to, maybe 80% and leave the remainder 20% just in case the market breaks through that level and is literally propelled with strength. Of course, taking a trade right at this level is usually risky and when these levels are not identified, most junior traders will scratch their head in dismay asking themselves what happened and why have the market reversed stopping them out.

Another very important indicator that is getting very popular with large trading firm following the popularity of Forex and the migration of stock traders to this market is the 200 EMA. This indicator is also very widely used and has a definite influence on the market. The principle of this indicator is to rapidly determine the direction the market and who are in control, bears or bulls. If the market is above the 200 it is bullish and bellow the 200 bearish, which means taking a sell order when the market is above the 200 bares a larger risk. Also looking at several currencies at the same time using this indicator helps VERY MUCH determine the overall market direction (currencies which are related to each others of course EUR/USD, CHF, GBP and JPY, AUD to some extend, the CAD as it’s own personality and often out of sync with others). One principle about the 200 is that in a side way market, the 200 will rap itself around or close to market price, that means caution as it can go either way, but when you see some currencies starting to break this line in one direction, often time hours before others, you can then get in the slower currency with little risk (please compare the EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 1H to see this in action for last night 2:00 am EST Jan 23 using the EMA 200 and the signal that followed the using the Bagovino Method ). These can be used with any system to add confidence.

Thanks for the contribution of all and appreciate any comments.
  • #1,432
  • Jan 29, 2007 9:57pm Jan 29, 2007 9:57pm
Quoting bagovino
Hi All,

I just wanted to start a thread sharing the most successful Forex trading method to date!

I have caused alot of shake ups on other threads due to the domination of my method on their posts so I chose to start my own.

Here it goes... It's quite simple. On a 1 Hr chart, plot 5/12 EMA's. Plot RSI set at 21. When the 5/12 crosses up and the 21 RSI crosses above 50 you go long. When the 5/12 crosses down and the 21 RSI goes below 50 you short.

This method is proven to be at least 85% accurate!

I leave this thread open to any and all improvements. I thank you for your time and I hope this helps you all become more successful traders!!!

Bagovino
Bago,

Has your system stayed the same since you started it, or have you made any modifications?

I realize I could read all 96 pages of this thread to find out, but I'm hoping to start trying the system right away and then will read the pages as time allows.

Thanks!
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #1,433
  • Jan 31, 2007 5:39pm Jan 31, 2007 5:39pm
Hi,

I have made up a system and someone in the forum told me that my system is very similar to bagovino´s system. Can you look at my system and tell me what you think of it?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=14647

Thanks,

J Fonseca
  • #1,434
  • Feb 2, 2007 8:52am Feb 2, 2007 8:52am
Quoting yen44x
Bago,

Has your system stayed the same since you started it, or have you made any modifications?

I realize I could read all 96 pages of this thread to find out, but I'm hoping to start trying the system right away and then will read the pages as time allows.

Thanks!
If you use the basic system as first laid out in Bago's first post on this thread I reckon you will do well. There have been many add-ons and adjustments to it which you can read as you go through the thread. When you use it you will very likely personalise it in your own way and I think that's the best way as we all have our own individual styles. I did read through the entire thread during the end-of-year break and started using Bago's method when the markets re-opened, only one week on a demo account and thereafter with real money and I have not looked back since, it does the job. Although I have to admit that I do something that Bago advised against but it works for me and I'm now making better returns on currencies than I did before. Be interested to hear how you go with it. Good trading.
  • #1,435
  • Feb 2, 2007 9:30am Feb 2, 2007 9:30am
This used to be one of the most popular threads on FF, what happened??

Did all the original Bago people make so much money that they've retired and don't need to post any more. Or has everyone defected to sidus new thread?

Bago, if you're around maybe you could help to kick start your thread back into action, I'm sure a lot of people would benefit greatly from it. Your method worked well for so many people and they all used to get on here and talk about their experiences etc, the place had a real buzz. Making money has that effect on people.

One more thing, I never thanked you for sharing your method with everyone on here, so a belated but most sincere thanks. It's brilliant (and furthermore your claim of 85% success is not so far fetched as some tried to make out!).
  • #1,436
  • Feb 3, 2007 8:06am Feb 3, 2007 8:06am
Dear Strada,

Yes, the systems works well if you use discretion, amazing how you can sometimes be in trade for almost a day without hardly any mouvement and bang here it is (week of Jan 29 on Eur/Gbp). The system has teached me patience as one very important quality to a trader. I have added another little feature: when I have a signal, I try too see a syncronisity among all majors and just before I enter I make sure the market is trending in my direction using a 5 and sometimes a 1 minute chart, as it is sometimes difficult to evaluate the current trend using 1H chart. Doing this puts me in profit position often a few minutes after entering a trade, which I then follow with the hourly chart.

There is one thing I am still not sure about the system: following a signal, do you have to wait for the close of the current 1H candle before entering a trade ?

Do you remeber Tick at the begenning of the thread, he offered to send the Accuchart templates to all that asked but I think he got swallowed by the fight that took place at page 20 and got fed up and left, but I still want that template, would you happen to have it or any body else ?

Finally Strada, would you mind going over what you do and the NO NO added features you use on te Bogo system.

Thanks for sharing your thaughts

Quoting strada
If you use the basic system as first laid out in Bago's first post on this thread I reckon you will do well. There have been many add-ons and adjustments to it which you can read as you go through the thread. When you use it you will very likely personalise it in your own way and I think that's the best way as we all have our own individual styles. I did read through the entire thread during the end-of-year break and started using Bago's method when the markets re-opened, only one week on a demo account and thereafter with real money and I have not looked back since, it does the job. Although I have to admit that I do something that Bago advised against but it works for me and I'm now making better returns on currencies than I did before. Be interested to hear how you go with it. Good trading.
  • #1,437
  • Edited 4:03am Feb 5, 2007 3:26am | Edited 4:03am
Hi TiKin, good to hear from you, and many interesting points you've made. When I originally read the thread I was amazed to see how many people were using Bago's method with their own variations and yet it still worked for them and you have obviously found your way of using it to suit your style of trading.

I mentioned before that I do something that Bago once advised against and you have also touched on the same idea. I trade Bago's method using a 10 minute graph and it is working very well as long as you use discretion with it, although I don't have too many rules. I use the 5 & 12 EMA (also the 250 for longer term trend but watching this at present and may change it, read your post above about 200); RSI 21 and follow Bago's basic entry. ie when 5 crosses over 12 and there has been a cross of the RSI over 50 in same direction then I enter a trade in that direction. I concentrate on the cable and the EUR/USD, although mainly cable for trading.

Stops i normally set between 30 - 40 unless there is a solid previous low/high or S/R then it might be less. With regard to exit I do a 50:50 split and depending on the market I will take profit on one half and for the other half raise the stop to break even or near if the market allows and thereafter trail the stop. If the trade goes against me and the 5 recrosses the 12 in the opposite direction and/or the RSI recrosses 50 then I exit, although this isn't set in stone and sometimes I will let it run if RSI is moving alongside the 50 rather than a definite move through it. If the market goes into congestion I consider whether to stay in the trade or not, if it is in a spell leading up to a news release then i will probably pull out but try to eke out a small profit. Then you have to use some discretion and watch closely. If the market has made what looks like a definite turn then I will exit and place a trade in the opposite direction if the signals say so. After periods of congestion I'm a bit wary of the first signal and may wait for confirmation but this can be costly sometimes. If the 5/12 cross happens within 3 bars of the RSI cross then I'm in otherwise I'll normally leave it.

As I said earlier Bago's method can be customised to some degree to suit the individual but the basic concept is good enough to allow this.

TiKin, you asked about Tick's templates, sorry I didn't obtain them but I'm sure if you PM'd him he'll oblige.
  • #1,438
  • Feb 5, 2007 10:39am Feb 5, 2007 10:39am
this system work on any pairs?what is ideal SL and TP?
  • #1,439
  • Feb 5, 2007 10:44am Feb 5, 2007 10:44am
Quoting strada
If you use the basic system as first laid out in Bago's first post on this thread I reckon you will do well. There have been many add-ons and adjustments to it which you can read as you go through the thread. When you use it you will very likely personalise it in your own way and I think that's the best way as we all have our own individual styles. I did read through the entire thread during the end-of-year break and started using Bago's method when the markets re-opened, only one week on a demo account and thereafter with real money and I have not looked back since, it does the job. Although I have to admit that I do something that Bago advised against but it works for me and I'm now making better returns on currencies than I did before. Be interested to hear how you go with it. Good trading.
Strada,

Thanks for the help. I ended up moving on to the BB Method noted here in FF just because I work a day job & the idea of looking at the candles once a day was very appealing. So far, so good.

I'm sure the Bagovino Method would work well too. The other just happened to fit my style of trading a little better.
Greetings from Guanajuato, Mexico
  • #1,440
  • Feb 5, 2007 12:20pm Feb 5, 2007 12:20pm
Yen44x, good luck with the BB method. Understand why the daily timeframe would be better for you, Bago's actual method revolves very much around the hourly and although longer time frames can be used for confirmation I don't know if they would work alongside your routine.

Amenlo9, Bago's method will work on any pair, if you read back through the thread you will see how many people used different pairs (suggest you read through the thread and especially in the early pages when Tick was posting. From memory he was watching something like 20 pairs on a regular basis and you will learn a lot from his posts, and of course many others). SL & PT will depend on the pair you're trading, some are more volatile than others.
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