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World's Simplest System

  • #41
  • Jan 28, 2008 7:47am Jan 28, 2008 7:47am
Quoting thunderwolf
Hi Teb,
Hope you're having a great day! You mentioned on your 1st post that you mainly trade the 4HR , 1HR , & 15MN time frames. You haven't posted any charts of those time frames for your 200 EMA system, so do you now prefer the higher Time Frames? Thanks for taking the time to read my question!!.....T-Wolf
good question
it was such a crazy week last week, I was only going with higher time frames. I didn't trust the lower ones.

I did some back testing & I believe week, day, 4 hours
may be the best with this system.


teb
  • #42
  • Jan 28, 2008 7:53am Jan 28, 2008 7:53am
Quoting edge540
TEB63: In your previous post I quote you "I never called it 200 ema system" yet in post #1 of this thread of yours' you say "the old 200 ema system is a great one"! I've looked at all your threads and for the best part they consist of unintelligible garbage. If your methods are successful for you then you are truly gifted, it's a pity you are incapable of conveying your systems to others. I wonder why you bother posting such stuff, the only consistent thing about your methods is your complete inability to answer the most basic questions about what you do.Eventually the thread dies as will this one.
It's because of his simple multitimeframe stochastics system TEB1, and then TEB2, I finally understood the importance of synchronizing multiple timeframes and now use this concept in my strategy, which increased my success rate. So, in my eyes, you calling his stuff "unintelligible garbage" only demonstrate your own level of intellect. What's not to understand here? Spead fibs on the latest swing only backwards, it works for him, great, he shows it to others, what is your problem?

You've shared great stuff TEB, please don't stop posting. Thank you.
Trax Tibidax Tibidox...
  • #43
  • Jan 28, 2008 8:06am Jan 28, 2008 8:06am
I am so interesting to see such effective system.
Would you tellme how to scalp GBP/JPY using M5 etc to get better profits?
tks
ELE
  • #44
  • Jan 28, 2008 9:36am Jan 28, 2008 9:36am
Hi I'm BWR and I approve of this system, What is there not to understand?
Is it too simple for some people to understand? I would have to say yes. Does he need to write a book about it to explain it? No. Go get some common sense. Its all about trading with the trend here.
Why is the 200ema so powerful? Its on almost every traders screens in all the major banks. And if those traders are watching it then obviously is has some clout as they are the market makers, just look at past pa and you will see how many times price respects the 200.
Just Trade It
  • #45
  • Jan 28, 2008 11:00am Jan 28, 2008 11:00am
So I have marked off most of the major turning points on the GU daily chart with 200 xma and what do I see: point D a reversal up (very good) point F a consolidation (good) point G a reversal down (very good). But if it is so powerful and such a magnet why is it possible for price to get so far away from it at points B, C , E AND H. What good does a 200 XMA do in predicting those swing points - nothing.

And is it not possible to draw other XMA lengths and see similar reversals and consolidations upon their plots. Absolutely.

This chart covering a year had 3 possible trades. Now I know you can look at more than one market and look at lower timeframes but is just seems to me to be very limiting to what the overall trend is doing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU.PNG Size: 30 KB
  • #46
  • Jan 28, 2008 11:19am Jan 28, 2008 11:19am
Quoting SunTrader
So I have marked off most of the major turning points on the GU daily chart with 200 xma and what do I see: point D a reversal up (very good) point F a consolidation (good) point G a reversal down (very good). But if it is so powerful and such a magnet why is it possible for price to get so far away from it at points B, C , E AND H. What good does a 200 XMA do in predicting those swing points - nothing.

And is it not possible to draw other XMA lengths and see similar reversals and consolidations upon their plots. Absolutely.

This chart covering a year had 3 possible trades. Now I know you can look at more than one market and look at lower timeframes but is just seems to me to be very limiting to what the overall trend is doing.
Any moving average will appear to be a magnet for price, because you will see price oscillate around it. It's not because traders universally recognize it. It's because a MA is a running average of price and price acts as a magnet to the MA.

That isn't to downgrade this system.
I don't know if it will work or not.
  • #47
  • Jan 28, 2008 11:35am Jan 28, 2008 11:35am
Quoting SunTrader
So I have marked off most of the major turning points on the GU daily chart with 200 xma and what do I see: point D a reversal up (very good) point F a consolidation (good) point G a reversal down (very good). But if it is so powerful and such a magnet why is it possible for price to get so far away from it at points B, C , E AND H. What good does a 200 XMA do in predicting those swing points - nothing.

And is it not possible to draw other XMA lengths and see similar reversals and consolidations upon their plots. Absolutely.

This chart covering a year had 3 possible trades. Now I know you can look at more than one market and look at lower timeframes but is just seems to me to be very limiting to what the overall trend is doing.
now drop down to the 4 hour & the hour
the point is mtf trading with the trend!!!!
& its getting the trend not the breakouts
I use the 1.2.3 for that
but the point of the 200ems
is that you do break outs with the trend
and with 200ema you will not get wippedout
but the 200ema is the bull bear line & it is important
cheers


teb
  • #48
  • Jan 28, 2008 12:08pm Jan 28, 2008 12:08pm
Quoting TEB63
now drop down to the 4 hour & the hour
the point is mtf trading with the trend!!!!
& its getting the trend not the breakouts
I use the 1.2.3 for that
but the point of the 200ems
is that you do break outs with the trend
and with 200ema you will not get wippedout
but the 200ema is the bull bear line & it is important
cheers


teb
TEB,
It would have to be proven to me that the 200 is any better or worse than any other long term ema. I just don't believe it.

That doesn't mean I don't think it will work. I've yet to prove that one way or the other.
  • #49
  • Jan 28, 2008 12:13pm Jan 28, 2008 12:13pm
Quoting billbss
Any moving average will appear to be a magnet for price, because you will see price oscillate around it. It's not because traders universally recognize it. It's because a MA is a running average of price and price acts as a magnet to the MA.

That isn't to downgrade this system.
I don't know if it will work or not.
totally agree with you MAs are not magnets
in fact I would say 200ema is the wildest of all the MA
and it does the opp. when price breaks over it
it normally takes off not sticks around

just my thoughts

TEB
  • #50
  • Jan 28, 2008 12:20pm Jan 28, 2008 12:20pm
Quoting billbss
TEB,
It would have to be proven to me that the 200 is any better or worse than any other long term ema. I just don't believe it.

That doesn't mean I don't think it will work. I've yet to prove that one way or the other.
My point exactly.

200 xma or sma is used as a gauge of what the long term trend is doing, not nessarily something to determine trades. I don't believe many bank traders use it much more than that.

But if someone finds it profitable
  • #51
  • Jan 28, 2008 12:45pm Jan 28, 2008 12:45pm
Quoting billbss
TEB,
It would have to be proven to me that the 200 is any better or worse than any other long term ema. I just don't believe it.

That doesn't mean I don't think it will work. I've yet to prove that one way or the other.

I think it does ... but that is not the point
the point is the 3 tf all together give you referance
& It is not them I am trading its the 1.2.3

you could do it with 50 ema but you would be wipped more
I do a system that uses 5emas works great
but the wipping is lots of fun

the 3 emas are just like 3 stochs or 3rsi
but the 1st point here
was to help people would could only trade once a day

cheers
teb
  • #52
  • Jan 28, 2008 1:08pm Jan 28, 2008 1:08pm
Quoting TEB63
I think it does ... but that is not the point
the point is the 3 tf all together give you referance
& It is not them I am trading its the 1.2.3

you could do it with 50 ema but you would be wipped more
I do a system that uses 5emas works great
but the wipping is lots of fun

the 3 emas are just like 3 stochs or 3rsi
but the 1st point here
was to help people would could only trade once a day

cheers
teb
Teb, Keep in mind that I'm not bad mouthing your system.
I watched it this morning and saw a loser and a couple of winners- a net +
They were on lower TFs than you recommend.
I'll keep watching it.
  • #53
  • Jan 28, 2008 1:12pm Jan 28, 2008 1:12pm
Quite right...there has to be a reason to trade. For me it's not the trend that's so all-fired important...it's knowing where prices will stop no matter what so I can enter and exit safely...

Such key points are gold in the hands of people who know how to use them. And they work whether you approach from top or bottom... because they are not trend-dependent points. At such points the prices WILL stop... long enough to exit and enter if one so feels inclined.

Happy trading...


Quoting tdion
I mean, what is the reason to enter the trade. There is nothing stopping this strategy from losing 50 times in a row...

Contrary to popular belief, MAs are not "magnets" for price.... half of the time the price is the magnet to the MA...
  • #54
  • Edited 1:41pm Jan 28, 2008 1:30pm | Edited 1:41pm
Quoting billbss
Teb, Keep in mind that I'm not bad mouthing your system.
I watched it this morning and saw a loser and a couple of winners- a net +
They were on lower TFs than you recommend.
I'll keep watching it.

cool thats good

again I believe its the 1.2.3 system that is the strenght of when to buy or sell
the 200 emas are just for trend to get the win ratio up

teb
  • #55
  • Jan 28, 2008 5:34pm Jan 28, 2008 5:34pm
Changed your mind, huh?
  • #56
  • Jan 29, 2008 12:07am Jan 29, 2008 12:07am
Quoting SunTrader
Changed your mind, huh?
LOL!
  • #57
  • Jan 29, 2008 3:18am Jan 29, 2008 3:18am
?
oh
no I got 25 pips in fact

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11.gif Size: 26 KB



I thought it might make the system harder
I wanted to keep it simple :

teb
  • #58
  • Jan 29, 2008 4:07am Jan 29, 2008 4:07am
Hey Teb, Keep up the good work!

I've been utilizing the EMA's for about 5 months now. Made a killing. had only three losses due to pulling the trigger too quickly. It is only now that I am beginning to truly understand the importance of EMA's, especially the 200.

What works for me, may not work for others. Some people are comfortable have several indicators and trading several times a day but I find it more relaxing and rewarding trading off the the higher TF's.

Good luck to all!
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #59
  • Jan 29, 2008 4:11am Jan 29, 2008 4:11am
I am going to take the week off

there is some talk high up that the fed. 75bp raise last week was panic
and they didn't know about the france bank thing
which was the reason for the stock free fall.
& so that might make a differance tomorrow?

some people are saying it might & if it does it could make a big differance,
that is if there is no increase or if its less then 50bp

I have no idea what will happen ...
so I am going to keep my power dry
& have a fun week

TEB
  • #60
  • Jan 29, 2008 6:10am Jan 29, 2008 6:10am
What is the secret of 200 EMA? It's called self fulfilling prophecy. Almost everybody thinks this EMA is very important ... and therefore it is in fact important ...
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