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New GFT Foresight AI service - any comments?

  • #61
  • Jan 3, 2007 3:09pm Jan 3, 2007 3:09pm
You have to be more clear about your terms. I like to refer to AI as the "prediction curve" and to the currency pair as the "price". If the AI curve shows a local high or low, the only real info you can get from that is that the price will either be forming a top or a bottom around that time.

That's when you turn to your other tools and ask, "Is this a top or bottom?" I have noticed that the AI curve often has two distinct phases. An initial move and then a secondary move. One can be inverted while the other is not necessarily. So, don't drift away from the fact that this is a timing tool that lets you know when the direction is going to change. It's not so good at telling you "prices will start to rise", just "prices will move in only one direction for the next two hours".

Use your other tools to give you direction.
  • #62
  • Jan 4, 2007 2:44pm Jan 4, 2007 2:44pm
They have posted the prediction curve for Wed, Jan 03. My point about using it as timing tool bears out. Keep in mind that I think they may be back to 'cherry picking' with these charts.

Notice that at 14:26, the curve calls for a local bottom. But if you just use the curve as timing tool, you will take away the message "For the next 1 1/2 hours the price will move in one direction". (1 1/2 hours being the amount of time on the prediction curve until the next turn-around). This was just before a news release and the news drove the price lower. Following this would have netted you about 40 pips. This was what I have begun to call the "first phase" as there are often two or more to these prediction curves.

The second phase starts at 16:08 as a local high. Without paying particular attention to it's direction, you take the message "The price will move in one direction for the next 4 hours". Once it becomes clear that that direction is down, you can pick up another 20 pips.

So, if you resist the temptation to take the curve too literally and just use it as a timing tool, you'd be in the money. I'm fired up.
  • #63
  • Jan 5, 2007 3:14am Jan 5, 2007 3:14am
I was doing some recearch on this topic, and here is my conclusion. This AI service is simply done to help the company, by influencing clients' trades, so that if they trade against, they will be secured and will not reach the point... Thats for sure.
Im not saing that only GFT does this, but every sigle brokerage which provides to its clients any kind of indicators, signals, etc is doing the same.

P.S. Looked at FSA - and found only GFT as it is(Global Markets UK Ltd, FSA#438879). I did NOT found any institution called "Global Futures & Forex, Ltd", as it is stated that AI Forecast service is - "STRATEGIC TRADING INSTITUTE Division of Global Futures & Forex, Ltd."(http://www.stitrader.com/foresight/), so this company is not regulated, and this is separate company from GFT as brokerage itself. On GFT UK's site it states - "GFT Global Markets UK Ltd., Subsidiary of Global Futures & Forex, Ltd"(http://www.gftuk.com/)

So this is actually true that brokers do influence their services(Forecasts, indicators, etc). But coz GFT is regulated by FSA, it cant just simply provide with this service(regulatory body will not accept it...), so they have another unregulated company, which provides it...

Think twice!!! Who will provide anything to you, for free(the deposit is not counting coz u can withdraw it ), so that u can earn tons of money... mission impossible lol

Only my thoughts...

Hope it help,
Cheers
  • #64
  • Jan 5, 2007 4:42am Jan 5, 2007 4:42am
So far so good CQ. Will be following your progress.

Quoting Coach_Quincy
They have posted the prediction curve for Wed, Jan 03. My point about using it as timing tool bears out. Keep in mind that I think they may be back to 'cherry picking' with these charts.

Notice that at 14:26, the curve calls for a local bottom. But if you just use the curve as timing tool, you will take away the message "For the next 1 1/2 hours the price will move in one direction". (1 1/2 hours being the amount of time on the prediction curve until the next turn-around). This was just before a news release and the news drove the price lower. Following this would have netted you about 40 pips. This was what I have begun to call the "first phase" as there are often two or more to these prediction curves.

The second phase starts at 16:08 as a local high. Without paying particular attention to it's direction, you take the message "The price will move in one direction for the next 4 hours". Once it becomes clear that that direction is down, you can pick up another 20 pips.

So, if you resist the temptation to take the curve too literally and just use it as a timing tool, you'd be in the money. I'm fired up.
  • #65
  • Jan 5, 2007 4:17pm Jan 5, 2007 4:17pm
I got started with my 5 day demo with this indicator today. I can see why they didn't put THIS one up on the web site. The timing was more or less right, but man, it would have been difficult to make money with this one today. I didn't receive it until after market close because technically, my demo starts Monday morn.

The yellow line is the prediction curve, green the actual price.

You see, you can't just jump in with the direction of the prediction curve because the direction is wrong as often as it is right. It's the timing that you use. But the market moved so fast with the news, it would have been impossible to get in in time.

The confusion that might have followed from there would take more room to describe than I'd like to take here.
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  • #66
  • Edited 9:50am Jan 8, 2007 9:37am | Edited 9:50am
Well, it is the first morning of my trial with AI. The inversion phenomenon is hitting home. The curve is simple enough, but when you try to figure out whether or not it is inverted, you have to just stand back and scratch your head.

I give you two screen shots from RIGHT NOW. One is regular (yellow) the other inverted (blue). You tell me which I should be following. Is the timing late, or is the timing early?
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  • #67
  • Edited 3:47pm Jan 8, 2007 3:29pm | Edited 3:47pm
Well, my first day with it was a dissapointment. With both the possibility of a slight timing shift AND the possibility of an inversion, I was not able to see the trend until it was over. No trade.

In the two images I've attached, I include red arrows for the possible peak matchups I was considering. All the while, my normal support and resistance signals were giving me nothing.

The green price is the actual price. The yellow line is the way Foresight is presented and blue is the prediction inverted. There is a high rate of inversion, so you always have to consider it.

Anybody else with more experience with this tool would certainly be welcome. I have four more days of trial before they cut me off.
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  • #68
  • Jan 9, 2007 3:46am Jan 9, 2007 3:46am
Yes my friend. I mean, yes you found out about the two "little" problems with Foresight:

a) Inversion -- this one sucks

b) Time Shift

but you forgot one more:

c) The scope - dimension in Pips - sometimes a "little Valley" is 50 Pips down and then the "big move" up that lasts for hours is only 5 Pips up. It is totally distorted.

I like the idea of this tool and some days it is fascinating how exact it is. Now if we could only find out on WHAT DAYS this is the case....(by the way, the same goes for a simple MA Crossover system....they're great, but you never know which ones to take..... )

Peter.
  • #69
  • Jan 9, 2007 2:25pm Jan 9, 2007 2:25pm
Well, today's just sucked and there is no other way to put it. Prediction curve in yellow, prices in green. I got stopped out once and walked away.

Standard, inverted, there was no way to make money with this pig today.
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  • #70
  • Jan 9, 2007 3:47pm Jan 9, 2007 3:47pm
Quoting Coach_Quincy
Well, today's just sucked and there is no other way to put it. Prediction curve in yellow, prices in green. I got stopped out once and walked away.
What was your exact trade today with it?
  • #71
  • Jan 10, 2007 12:29pm Jan 10, 2007 12:29pm
QC:

Not to be negative, but it looks random to me. Sometimes a random graph looks like the real price.... tricks your eye.

have you considered this to be well disguised snake oil?

regards,
tom
  • #72
  • Jan 10, 2007 3:28pm Jan 10, 2007 3:28pm
"Snakeoil"? No. It's a tool. I'm just trying to find out if it's a good tool. Using it in real time with real money is turning out to be quite a bit different than looking at choice charts on the web.

Here's how my third day went (refer to the image attached).

The curve is presented in the standard configuration which is in yellow. I watched it for a while to make sure that it was in the correct allignment and it seemed to be. So, I went long at A. I was doing fine until the curve inverted between expected reversal points. This was a surprise to me and I was stopped out at B.

I inverted the curve to the configuration you see in blue.

I am trading this with real money, so I was a little "emotional" at this point. I should have realized that the curve had inverted and gone short at C. But at C, nothing seemed to fit. Neither configuration was making sense and after yesterday, I just assumed the whole thing was garbage. So, I waited.

Sure enough, it was a simple inversion which I had been told to expect, but did not. At D, I realized that the price action was more or less following the curve and I went short. I recouped my loss from earlier by exiting at E, but recouping losses is not all I was hoping for.

I don't beleive the curve is random, but it sure isn't something that you can just follow. I've got two more days of demo and I'll continue to trade real money and get the most of it. I'm down about 20 pips over-all.

I'm not sure if this is an analysis, a journal or a confession!
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  • #73
  • Jan 10, 2007 6:27pm Jan 10, 2007 6:27pm
QC:


Does it makes sense to go long and short at the same time, and cut the loser short?

I don't have an answer for a tool that can invert at any time.

Sorry for your heartache.

Tom
  • #74
  • Jan 10, 2007 10:27pm Jan 10, 2007 10:27pm
Going long and short at the same time only works if you are trading options and you expect some volitility soon. With naked Forex lots, it's a fool's errand. You pay the spread going both ways and volitility can make BOTH lots losers. There is no substitution for being on the right side at the right time.

I just have to expect the inversion and not get my knickers in a twist when it happens. The curve has meaning, but it is not mana from heaven. If it inverts, I have to take the loss and get back in according to the now inverted curve. I'm still convinced that this can net pips if I can just keep my head.

If I had been more level-headed today, I would have been able to get back in short at point 'C' (see the attachment above) and make a little money. Instead I was too pissed off to see what was going on.
  • #75
  • Jan 10, 2007 10:35pm Jan 10, 2007 10:35pm
Quoting Coach_Quincy
If I had been more level-headed today, I would have been able to get back in short at point 'C' (see the attachment above) and make a little money. Instead I was too pissed off to see what was going on.
I've been watching and reading this thread with much interest and I feel that your statement above is the key and the reason why, if you stick with this, you'll begin to earn big rewards as you get better at "seeing" things as they are happening.

I watched the promotional video again today and the things that stood out to me are many of the things that you are saying: "it's a tool that is better in conjunction with other tools", "it's 70% successful, which means that it will fail 30% of the time", "it's NOT the holy grail", etc, etc.

My guess is that with time you, I, we, would be able to spot these "inversions" quickly enough to adjust and make positive pips. Also this tool works best in a strong trending market and would really benefit from having another tool to help "confirm" trend directions and high/low's.

Keep going. I'll be reading with interest.
  • #76
  • Jan 10, 2007 10:42pm Jan 10, 2007 10:42pm
Quoting Coach_Quincy
Going long and short at the same time only works if you are trading options and you expect some volitility soon. With naked Forex lots, it's a fool's errand. You pay the spread going both ways and volitility can make BOTH lots losers. There is no substitution for being on the right side at the right time.

I just have to expect the inversion and not get my knickers in a twist when it happens. The curve has meaning, but it is not mana from heaven. If it inverts, I have to take the loss and get back in according to the now inverted curve. I'm still convinced that this can net pips if I can just keep my head.
Also, would it be a good idea to look at both case scenarios, regular and inverted, and have a plan prior to the beginning of the trading day? If they give you the "plan" ahead of time it would seem that a prudent move would be to hedge with a rational SL, especially if the "plan" is for the currency to move quite a bit. You'll most likely be on the right side of one of the two trades and thus be exchanging -30 on the loser for a big + on the winner.

Is that a possibility?
  • #77
  • Jan 11, 2007 12:48pm Jan 11, 2007 12:48pm
Quoting petercross
I have warned you. This little baby will suck your account dry!
First of all this is a "tool" and nothing more. So this brings up two points about your "post":

1) why would anyone allow ONE tool to "suck their account dry"?? That would be stupid.

2) I believe that it is also a matter of "scale". People trading mini-lots would probably find it extremelly difficult to generate the $500 per month expense for access to this tool. For those trading $100 to $1000+ per pip, the $500 per month for access is inconsequential.

Like ANY tool out there, this one also should not be used alone but rather in conjunction with others. From what I've seen and read thus far it appears to be a worthwhile tool. I look forward to hearing more about the results from those that are demoing it right now.
  • #78
  • Jan 11, 2007 12:53pm Jan 11, 2007 12:53pm
Well, this is my fourth day with this thing. Today's was strange indeed. Was the curve good in standard mode and on-time, or was it good inverted and 3 hours late?

I broke even on this today. Pretty frustrating. I can tell that there is correlation, but which way? Standard in yellow, inverted in blue. I had to chop it down a bit to get it all in under the 600 pixel max for this board.
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  • #79
  • Jan 12, 2007 2:09pm Jan 12, 2007 2:09pm
This was my fifth and final day with this thing. After the beatings I took earlier in the week trying to trade it, I was pretty conservative. As you can see from the attachments (yellow standard config, blue inverted) It followed pretty well and I picked up about 13 pips.

On the whole, the fact that the timing can be HOURS off and the curve can invert out of nowhere, I don't think this is worth $500/month. If every day was like today's, then it would be a no-brainer. But they aren't and it isn't.
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  • #80
  • Jan 12, 2007 2:24pm Jan 12, 2007 2:24pm
Hey Coach,

Thanks for sharing your experience with the AI thing. I am with GFT and have the option of the 5 day trial. Seeing how this thing looks, seems a waste of time as it will just take time away from further development of my own system. And, $500/mo, I don't think so, as 5 days is not enough time to master it and by the time you do, you'd need to gain a lot of pips to make up for lost money.
Thanks again.
PIPMYWAY


Quoting Coach_Quincy
This was my fifth and final day with this thing. After the beatings I took earlier in the week trying to trade it, I was pretty conservative. As you can see from the attachments (yellow standard config, blue inverted) It followed pretty well and I picked up about 13 pips.

On the whole, the fact that the timing can be HOURS off and the curve can invert out of nowhere, I don't think this is worth $500/month. If every day was like today's, then it would be a no-brainer. But they aren't and it isn't.
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