Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

Quoting birdt

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Nice analysis Q, hope you took some profit at the 50 fib and 100sma on the 1H though. My hunch is that it is just consolidatory and the bearish bias will continue, the fact that wave4 did not breach wave1 of the move from 204 up to 214 (albeit there were only 12 pips in it), suggests to me that the 5th wave could still occur, possibly straddling new highs. There has been a definite bullish shift in bias on the higher time frames which should not be ignored.

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Quoting arezab

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Hi birdt, I don't know much about these waves that you mentioned here, though I'm very interested to know more about them since I know they are important as they occur in all financial markets.

The only thing I know about it is that a bullish movement advances to it's highest target in 5th waves and for bearish, it's happens in 3 waves. (please correct me if I'm wrong) and I don't know anything else. I hope you don't mind if you could just show me this 5 bullish waves which is happening on GJ with a chart so that I can see them.

Also I don't know the rules for these waves, for example which wave should end where to be valid as 4th wave or so ...

Do you have any link for more study about that?

Thank you bro.

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Quoting birdt

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Indeed I do young man, and seeing as you asked politely I shall provide you with some reading material to peruse at your leisure.

You are mistaken about it being 5 waves up and 3 down, the market knows not what is up or down, and even if it did I suspect it would pay it little mind, especially in the foreign exchange. 5 wave bearish formations are as frequent as their bullish counterparts.


This is a small collection of forex ebooks I have made available. Feel free to download any you like. There are two specific to wave theory, I found that Balan was particularly good.

http://www.mediafire.com/?sharekey=5...50fe88c286f15c


Also, the Tom Williams - Mastering the Markets is an absolutely essential read for anyone attempting to understand market movements.

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Quoting birdt

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There are only three rules of Elliot wave theory:

Wave 2 cannot correct beyond the start of wave 1.

Wave 4 cannot breach wave 1 - or else it is not a 5 wave formation.

Wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave of the formation, it's usually the longest, but not always. If it is the shortest, it's not a 5 wave elliot formation.

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Quoting quecee5

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arezab,

wave 3 and 5 are the longest wave in a 5 wave structure, albeit there are sub wave within these waves for example wave 2 & 4 could have 3-5 sub waves with in its wave. Waves 3 and 5 should always be impulsive. . .

If this is the 4th wave down then the 5th wave should be impulsive and end up (after consolidation) before we see this 5 wave structure complete and continue on with the bigger trend which is down and bring on a new low (200 or slightly lower). . .

We could see GJ challenge the broken trend line on a weekly @ 219.50 or so like Karm pointed out but we need to get above the previous high to confirm. . .

birdt can elaborate more on this as he has more knowledge in this area. . .

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Quoting birdt

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There are only three rules of Elliot wave theory:

Wave 2 cannot correct beyond the start of wave 1.

Wave 4 cannot breach wave 1 - or else it is not a 5 wave formation.

Wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave of the formation, it's usually the longest, but not always. If it is the shortest, it's not a 5 wave elliot formation.

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Quoting arezab

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Thank you q, you always teach me something.
If I want to depict in a picture, I assume this is the thing you are trying to tell me. Then wave 5 should move much higher than 214 and quite sharp actually ... am I right?

I know 217.50 is 50 fib of last downtrend, so if wave 5 is going above last high (214), we should see that level at the end of wave 5 and then look for continuation of another downtrend ...

Please correct me in every point you feel I'm wrong.

Thanks for instructions.

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Quoting quecee5

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Elliot wave information, if interested. . .

Cheers. . .

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Quoting arezab

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Hi dagoods

1- Use the attached one which has separate colors for bands and middle line, but I use "Laguerre Filter" as the middle line, I mean I make the middle line of BB invisible and put Laguerre filter (0.6 or 0.7 which one you think fits better) over it cuase it gives me smoother curves.

2- Use "RSI with Alert", it has alert setting to enable audible alerts when crossing 50 line but change the period from 21 (default) to 14... that is what I use.

3- 5M or Maximum 15M but I trade %90 of my trades on 5M using this system, it's more risky because of wide spread (mine is 8) but overall gives you more pips. Your losses will be limited to 30 to 40 points max.

4- I'm dedicated to the Beast only ... although I have an eye on GU and UJ in the matter of fib levels for support and resistance but I don't trade them.

5- Ah ... here comes it about experience using this system because most of times I don't have any specific predefined target. I just follow these indicators but most of times I exit the market based on multiple factors earlier, specially I always look after RSI divergences to close a trade earlier than for example waiting for RSI to crosses back 50 line. With this system I've a record of 920 pips in just one day but my normal range (if market is not sideways) 200 to 300 points per day.

You can use Stochastic (10,1,3) beside them but it is not so important it just help to determine divergences better but it cause also some confusions sometimes. Just RSI suffices.

My other tool is trend lines which helps me greatly to pass small and false signals i.e in an uptrend I ignore entering small retracements by using proper trend line. This is very powerful.

But let me tell you something. I trade Full Time. That means some days almost 19 hours screen time. Can you do that? I mean not everybody is capable to afford such a long time in front of his monitor. At weekends I just sleep and do absolutely nothing. I really mean it. So don't look at my 300 points per day as normal profit range for everybody who uses this method. If I trade part time, I would hardly get such a profits.

Let me add to it that you will have some losses too. Every system has loss but If you follow it, it will give you what you want in long term.

And something else ... I DON'T TRADE NEWS because it's 5M and so very risky at news time. I start to open position normally half an hour or one hour after news announcement.

Dagoods and Moneymanagement ask me about this. You are yourself masters and I've learned many things from you and also Queece5 about technicals. So I don't dare to claim to know anything special in your presence because you know most of points I mentioned about fibs, support and res, trendlines and ... I wanted to explain everything about this simple system for anyone who is interested and wants to try it. So excuse me if I spoke too much.

I'm studying Skunny's thread. People it's awesome. It is giving me a new look about market movements. I recommend it to everybody. I combine it with this method and it's giving me more confidence and less stress to trade , open and close positions. It works on 5M too and not necessarily only for 1H or 4H. Give it also a try ... just my thought.

This is not a scalping thread so excuse me everybody if I cluttered the page.

I've attached a picture which shows the way I traded this system on Dec 28th 2007 which gave me more than 300 points. I hope it helps.

The indicators are also attached.

Cheers

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Quoting comeinvest

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Hi every1, i got some question here. Where we could get the OPEN INTEREST in VT TRADER??

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Quoting OrionsWay

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There is no OI in FX and only volume if broker supplies it

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Quoting Bdisciplined

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HI AREZAB,
I AM AN ACTIVE TRADER AND YOUR STRATEGY SOUNDS INTERESTING. I HAVE BEEN READING THIS FORUM FOR A WHILE AND WOULD LOVE TO CONTRIBUTE, BUT THE SOFTWARE THAT I HAVE ISN'T THE SAME AS WHAT EVERYONE USES.MINE IS BASED OFF PRESSURE CHARTS AND I THINK YOU ALL USE PRICE CHARTS.IS THIS CORRECT? I DON' T UNDERSTAD ALL THE LINGO LIKE BB, RSI, GHANN,FIBS ETC... CAN SOMEONE PLEASE TELL ME WHERE TO GO TO LEARN, SO I CAN CONTRIBUTE.I DOWNLOADED METRATRADER TO TRY AND SET IT UP.YOUR RSI AND STOCH CHANGE EVERY 20M AND MINE IS SET TO 40M AND I CAN;T FIGURE OUT HOW TO CHANGE IT.T WOULD BE APPRECIATED IF YOU COULD ADVISE.
THANKS,
BDISC

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Quoting arezab

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Hi Bdisciplined

I think you should spend some time working with Metatrader platform. It's quite easy to work with and after some time you will be familiar with tools, indicators and other things.

I don't know where you can find introduction or any tutorial for this platform but I presume if you read it's help section, you will learn how to open, close positions and how to setup indicators on chart etc.

I don't know how a pressure based chart looks like so if you are comparing stochastic or RSI of that type of platform with Metatrader and seems to you they are different or changing, I can't explain why ...

Search in threads in site, you may find a thread which discusses solely about Metatrader platform.

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Quoting karmostaji

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My short position was stopped out with some nice profit, seems long is coming into play.. I'll wait for a bit retracement into the 211 area and trigger a long, will keep it for several days maybe a week till we reach 217-219 area

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Quoting arezab

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karmo, do you use trailing stop?

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