daily analysis, mid-and long-term outlook

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 210.51; (P) 212.27; (R1) 213.40; More
GBP/JPY's rebound from 204.49 was limited at 214.00 and retreats from there continues today. With 4 hours MACD dragged below signal line, an intraday top is in place and outlook is turned neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 214.00 will indicate rebound from 204.49 is still in progress for inner falling channel resistance (now at 218.96). On the downside, however, below 207.05 minor support will indicate that rise from 204.49 has completed and will bring retest of this low.
In the bigger picture, an important medium term top is formed at 251.09 after completion of a medium term head and should top pattern (ls: 241.47, h: 251.09, rs: 241.35), with the medium term trend line support taken out too. In other words, the whole up trend from 148.19 should have ended at 251.09 already. Having said that, as long as the current rebound is limited below 221.25 support turned resistance, the fall from 241.35 should still be in force.
However, a short term bottom is in place after GBP/JPY was supported by double channel support, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Firm break of 204.49 is needed to confirm recent down trend has resumed for psychological support at 200, which overlaps with next medium term fibo support of 50% retracement of 148.19 (006) to 251.09 (07 high) at 199.64. Otherwise, further consolidation could still be seen with risk of another rise before completion.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.77; (P) 157.44; (R1) 158.35;
EUR/JPY's rebound 152.11 was limited at 159.12 so far and retreat from there continues today. An intraday top is in place there with 4 hours MACD dragged below signal line. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 159.12 will indicate rise from 152.11 is still in force and for 162.27 resistance and above. However, below 154.83 will argue that rebound from 152.11 has completed in corrective three waves manner to 159.12 and will encourage retest of this low first.
In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY has turned into sideway consolidation after medium term up trend was limited at 168.93. It's still early to conclude whether such consolidation has completed. On the one hand, sustained break of 168.93 high is needed to confirm that the medium term up trend has resumed. Otherwise, another fall could still be seen before completing the consolidation. On the other hand, below 152.11 will suggest that fall from 167.72 is still in progress to retest 149.27 low before completion.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4636; (P) 1.4707; (R1) 1.4752;
EUR/USD's retreat from 1.4778 extends further today and is now pressing 4 hours 55 EMA (1.4660). With 4 hours MACD dragged below signal line, outlook is turned neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 1.4778 will indicate that rise from 1.4365 is still in progress for 1.4921 resistance. Meanwhile, on the downside, below 1.4589 will suggest that rebound from 1.4365 has completed. Further decline should be seen to 1.4508 and break will confirm this case and bring retest of 1.4365 low.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top is in place after EUR/USD failed 1.5 psychological resistance. Subsequent price actions from 1.4966 is so far still bounded inside established range of 1.4309 and 1.4966, suggesting it's merely developing into sideway consolidation rather than a deep correction. Having said that, it's too early to conclude whether the consolidation has completed or not until a firm break of 1.4966/1.5 key resistance zone. And further choppy sideway trading could still be seen. On the downside, break of 1.4365, however, will indicate that a deeper fall is in progress for 1.4014 support before completing the consolidation.
Also, with 1.3581 resistance turned support remains intact, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in force. Regardless of internal structure, it is treated as resumption of long term up trend from 0.8223 (00 low) to 1.3668 (04 high) and has just failed 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.3668 from 1.1639 at 1.5004 target which overlaps with 1.5 psychological resistance. Sustained trading above 1.5 key resistance will confirm the medium term up trend has resumed to next projection target of 100% projection at 1.7048.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9998; (P) 1.0058; (R1) 1.0093;
USD/CAD weakens mildly further today but after all it's still staying in range above 1.0015. While consolidation from 1.0015 might continue, further decline is still expected as long as 1.0135 resistance holds. Note the impulsive nature of the fall from 1.0378 as well as bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Rise from 0.9056 could have already completed at 1.0378 after meeting 1.0339 support turned resistance. Break of 0.9971 will add more credence to this case and bring retest of 0.9756 low first.
However, above 1.0135 will indicate indicate that fall from 1.0378 has possibly completed and bring stronger rebound to 1.0204 resistance first. Break of 1.0204 resistance will firstly indicate that fall from 1.0378 has likely completed. Secondly it will argue that rise from 0.9756 is still in force for 61.8% projection of 0.9056 to 1.0248 from 0.9756 at 1.0493.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.9056 after USD/CAD just missed double projection target of 161.8% projection of 1.4006 to 1.1716 from 1.2737 at 0.9032 and 161.8% projection of 1.2737 to 1.0930 from 1.1874 at 0.8950. But with key medium term resistance zone of 1.0930, 38.2% retracement of 1.4006 to 0.9056 at 1.0947 and 50% retracement of 1.2737 to 0.9056 at 1.0897 remains intact, the long term down trend from 1.6196 is still in force. Break of 0.9756 will confirm that rebound from 0.9056 has completed and will bring retest of this low. However, sustained break of 1.0930 will argue that the long term down trend has also completed and in such case, much stronger rally should then be seen to next medium term resistance of 1.1874 first.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8806; (P) 0.8849; (R1) 0.8931;
AUD/USD's rally from 0.8512 resumed after taking out 0.8853 resistance and reached as high as 0.8895 so far. At this point, further rally is still expected as long as 0.8768 support holds. Next upside target will be short term falling trend line (now at 0.8935) and then 0.9018 resistance. On the downside, below 0.8768 will indicate that rise from 0.8512 has made a top and turn outlook neutral again. Though, further rise is still in favor as long as 0.8611 support holds.
In the bigger picture, rally from 0.7015 has made a medium term top at 0.9398 after failing 200% projection of 0.6773 to 0.7992 from 0.7015 at 0.9453, with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours RSI. Subsequent fall from 0.9398 is treated as correction to rise from 0.7015 only. Break of 0.9018 resistance will indicate that such corrective fall has completed and will encourage stronger rally to retest 0.9398 high.
However, break of 0.8611 will indicate that such correction is still in progress for another fall to below 0.8512, probably to support zone between 0.8008 (04 high) and 50% retracement of 0.7015 to 0.9398 at 0.8207 before completion. Though, downside should be contained there and bring rally resumption.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4695; (P) 1.4747; (R1) 1.4831;
EUR/USD retreats mildly after rally from 1.4365 has extended to as high as 1.4798. At this point, outlook remains unchanged. Rise from 1.4365 is still in progress for 1.4921 resistance, with prospect of retesting 1.4966 record high and 1.5 psychological resistance. On the downside, however, below 1.4658 will turn short term outlook neutral again and bring pull back. But further rally is still in favor as long as downside is contained above 1.4508 support.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top is in place after EUR/USD failed 1.5 psychological resistance. Subsequent price actions from 1.4966 is so far still bounded inside established range of 1.4309 and 1.4966, suggesting it's merely developing into sideway consolidation rather than a deep correction. Having said that, it's too early to conclude whether the consolidation has completed or not until a firm break of 1.4966/1.5 key resistance zone. And further choppy sideway trading could still be seen. On the downside, break of 1.4365, however, will indicate that a deeper fall is in progress for 1.4014 support before completing the consolidation.
Also, with 1.3581 resistance turned support remains intact, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in force. Regardless of internal structure, it is treated as resumption of long term up trend from 0.8223 (00 low) to 1.3668 (04 high) and has just failed 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.3668 from 1.1639 at 1.5004 target which overlaps with 1.5 psychological resistance. Sustained trading above 1.5 key resistance will confirm the medium term up trend has resumed to next projection target of 100% projection at 1.7048.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9749; (P) 1.9819; (R1) 1.9912;
Cable turns sideway after extending higher to 1.9889 and is still pressing mentioned short term falling channel resistance (now at 1.9845). Nevertheless, further rally is still in favor as long as 1.9730 support holds. As discussed before, break of the mentioned channel resistance will indicate that whole fall from 2.1161 has completed at 1.9337 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Stronger rally should the be seen to 2.0099 resistance first.
However, below 1.9730 will likely have 4 hours MACD dragged below signal line too and suggest that rebound from 1.9337 has completed with three waves up to 1.9876. In other words, it's merely a correction to the down trend from 2.1161 only. Below 1.9464 will indicate that such down trend is ready to resume for a retest of 1.9337 low first.
In the bigger picture, prior break of medium term rising channel and 2.0 psychological support at least indicate that rise from 1.8090 has already completed at 2.1161. With 55 weeks EMA taken out too, it's likely that the medium term up trend from 1.7047 has also completed. Deeper medium term decline is expected towards 61.8% retracement at 1.8619. Though, break of the short term falling channel will indicate that whole decline from 2.1161 has completed. Stronger short term rally should then be seen, probably to retest prior medium term channel support turned resistance (now at 2.0250) before resuming the medium term fall from 2.1161.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0854; (P) 1.0909; (R1) 1.0947;
USD/CHF is still lacking a clear short term direction and recovers today. Nevertheless, with 1.0990 resistance remains intact, further downside is still in favor to retest 1.0846 and 1.0836 lows. Break will confirm fall from 1.1120 as well as whole decline from 1.1596 has resumed for next downside target of 61.8% projection of 1.1596 to 1.0836 from 1.1120 at 1.0650. However, above 1.0990 will suggest that consolidation pattern that started at 1.0836 is still in progress. In other words, further rise should still be seen to 1.1120 before completion.
In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.3283 (05 high) is still in force. The preferred interpretation is that fall from 1.3282 was initially contained at 1.1919 and turned into sideway triangle consolidation that completed at 1.2467, where the medium term down trend from 1.3283 resumed . Having said that, next medium term downside target will be 161.8% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2467 at 1.0260. Also, such medium term decline is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term down trend from 1.8305 (00 high) which could extend further to parity.
On the upside, though, above 1.1189 resistance will firstly argue that fall from 1.1596 has completed. Secondly, it will suggest that consolidation from 1.0890 is still in progress and further rise could be seen to retest 1.1596 high before completion. But still, sustained break of 1.1596 is needed to indicate such down trend from 1.3283 has completed. Otherwise, long term outlook will remain bearish

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.24; (P) 106.63; (R1) 107.28;
USD/JPY continues to consolidate in tight range above 105.92 support today. Outlook remains neutral for the moment. On the one hand, with 4 hours MACD staying below sign line, it's likely that rebound from 104.96 has completed at 107.89, leaving it with a corrective three wave structure. Break of 105.92 will confirm this case and bring retest of 104.96 low. Though, firm break there is needed to confirm recent fall from 114.77 has resumed for next medium term target of 101.22/65 level. On the other hand, strong rebound above 104.96, or a break of 107.89 resistance, will indicate that correction from 104.96 is still in progress towards 110.10 resistance.
In the bigger picture, fall from 114.77 should still be in progress as long as 110.10 resistance holds. Though, below 104.96 is needed to confirm it has resumed. Otherwise, some more consolidation could still be seen in short term. Also, whole medium term down trend from 124.13 remains in force towards key medium term support zone of 101.22/65 level. However, since the structure of the fall from 124.13 is not clearly impulsive yet, the fall from 124.13 might only be part of a wide range consolidation pattern only and 101.22/65 key support might hold. Much attention will be paid there on sign of reversal as USD/JPY approaches this key support zone.
On the upside, above 110.10 will indicate that fall from 114.77 has already completed. Stronger rally could the be seen retest the trend line resistance (now at 113.41). But still, a decisive break of trend line resistance is needed to be the first signal that whole down trend fro 124.13 has completed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.

Pair tendency this week is bullish

EUR/USD-market strategy can be a buy at support level 1.4750

Technical oscilators that supporting a bullish trend are:

RSI at 57.47% and pointing up to overbought levels

MACD above the zero line closeto a bullish crossover of the long EMA

BUT the pair traded on the thin bullinger band and can break sharply

The pair trades on the thin bollinger trade between 107.18 and 106.63

USD/JPY-market strategy can be a buy at support level 106.60

RSI at 55.83% and pointing up to overbought levels

MACD at zero line close to a bullish crossover of the long EMA

MA after a bearish crossover of a shorter line

GBP/USD-market strategy is to buy at the level of 1.9730 till 1.9960

The pair bullish trend starts on January 22, 2008

RSI at 64.01% and starts to move lower to oversold levels

MACD close to bullish crossover of the short EMA above the zero line

MA after bullish crossover

The pair trades on the lower bollinger band

USD/USD-market strategy can be a sell at break of support level 1.0850

RSI at 29.40% pointing down in oversold levels

MACD Long EMA crossed the short EMA and bellow the zero line

MA after a bearish crossover of a shorter line