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The Art of Trading with MTF Stochastics

  • #881
  • Jan 16, 2008 3:16pm Jan 16, 2008 3:16pm
Ocelot
I did not think about taking it long.the reason is that the 4H was very low at the time the other stochs were moving up.When trading 1H/30M/15M agreement trade with 4H being below 20 line I want the 4H to give direction confirmation.So the 4H suppose to be pointing up slightly and be near 20.
another thing is the 1H/30/15M have to definitely crossed 20 line up and be tight together and be closed at the moment of entry.this criteria were not meet so I did not took long trade.
  • #882
  • Jan 16, 2008 5:40pm Jan 16, 2008 5:40pm
Three trades to discuss.

First GJ trade entered right at 211. This was not smart...at least I should have waited for some evidence that price would break 211. MACD had crossed, stochs were down and AS was negative. Exited at BE. Second trade was another short, same setup. Waited for price to close below 211 for a few candles and entered at 210.89. Was looking for 210, closed for +43.

AU - entered on the break of .88, stochs were up, MACD had crossed and AS was positive. Price didn't go up. Closed for -11.

Cheers,
CanuckCT
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  • #883
  • Jan 16, 2008 7:08pm Jan 16, 2008 7:08pm
Last post for a while. Just too darn busy!

Thanks to all the folks here who have helped me. I feel like I'm finally on track.

GJ sell...stochs below 50, macd crossed zero and AS confirmed. +35 pips.

Cheers
CanuckCT
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  • #884
  • Edited 7:43pm Jan 16, 2008 7:33pm | Edited 7:43pm
I am having trouble opening and saving the files in Canuck Scalp Zip file. I can open the zip file but I can't save them. Can you post your files individually on this thread along with your template?

Many thanks,

T4K

Please disregard this request. I called my son at college and he told me what to do. Thank goodness for smart children!!
  • #885
  • Jan 17, 2008 3:06am Jan 17, 2008 3:06am
Here's a trade I took this evening for +80 pips. I was late getting in and the 15 and 30 were already overbought. I still took it though because there was a nice steep slope on the 1h which still had plenty of room to move up, and the 4h was above 50 and moving up. Okay, back to studying...
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  • #886
  • Jan 17, 2008 4:01am Jan 17, 2008 4:01am
Going back to Spudfyre's original writings, on GY I'm going to need a stop loss of at least 5X the 10+ or 20+ pips I am looking for unless I get the entry perfect.

I have noticed I don't want to enter a trade on a pullback. It's completely counter-intuitive. Given that the H4 and H1 and M30 are in place the M15 trade has a high probability.

Too many times I have entered when a trade has started to go my way, watched it eat up the spread, very nice thank you, go into profit a little, very nice again thank you, and then slap me across the face by pulling back. This is psychologically damaging. If I ride it out, which I have done many times, I think I've been lucky to get a result.

The pullback is exactly where I should be entering.
Gone to a better place
  • #887
  • Jan 17, 2008 4:43am Jan 17, 2008 4:43am
Quoting smikester
Going back to Spudfyre's original writings, on GY I'm going to need a stop loss of at least 5X the 10+ or 20+ pips I am looking for unless I get the entry perfect.

I have noticed I don't want to enter a trade on a pullback. It's completely counter-intuitive. Given that the H4 and H1 and M30 are in place the M15 trade has a high probability.

Too many times I have entered when a trade has started to go my way, watched it eat up the spread, very nice thank you, go into profit a little, very nice again thank you, and then slap me across the face by pulling back. This is psychologically damaging. If I ride it out, which I have done many times, I think I've been lucky to get a result.

The pullback is exactly where I should be entering.
Smikester I know exactly what you're talking about as I've noticed the same thing. This is where comparing the 15m to the 30m and 1h can be helpful. If there is a pullback and the 15m starts to turn over but the 30m is unaffected you can wait for the 15m to reverse back to it's original direction and enter there or just hold your position if you're already in. Sometimes a pullback will affect both the 15m and 30m but not the 1h but the concept is the same, as long as the 1h keeps going in the same direction, enter when the 15m reverses back to it's original position also. The trick is figuring out when it's just a pullback and when it's a real reversal. In fact, this is the trick of trading period. =) I've not solved this problem but one thing I like to look for is if a pullback is occurring at an area of previous resistance. If so, I might be more inclined to move my stop to break even or just get out. if a pullback is occurring in the midst of an uptrend and the longer term stochastics are holding their direction, then I'd be more inclined to hold my position, and perhaps even add to it.

Hope that helps...
  • #888
  • Jan 17, 2008 3:35pm Jan 17, 2008 3:35pm
Tim,

I've decided to start my own thread related to this method and on Jeff's sggestion, it's now called "X50". You can find the template and indicators here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=65703

Cheers,
CanuckCT

Quoting tim4kaye
I am having trouble opening and saving the files in Canuck Scalp Zip file. I can open the zip file but I can't save them. Can you post your files individually on this thread along with your template?

Many thanks,

T4K

Please disregard this request. I called my son at college and he told me what to do. Thank goodness for smart children!!
  • #889
  • Jan 18, 2008 5:15pm Jan 18, 2008 5:15pm
Quoting ocelot
The MTFS system(s) work a lot better (for me) during ranging markets. Has anyone had good success trading MTFS during trending markets? I read Spud's elasticity overview, he makes it sound so easy...

It seems to me that most systems manage to do ok in a ranging market. MTF Stochastics however is not meant to help you in either range or trend markets. It has proved most useful to me when I decide going into the trade that I will at least go for 20 to 50 pips. MTF Stochs shows me when to get in. Getting out takes discipline. You are much better off aiming for 20-30 pips each time then trying to ride a trend wave. The wave could go with you, but then again it could go against you. Success is found in a long series of small, profitable steps.


Thanks,
  • #890
  • Jan 19, 2008 4:48am Jan 19, 2008 4:48am
Quoting smikester
Going back to Spudfyre's original writings, on GY I'm going to need a stop loss of at least 5X the 10+ or 20+ pips I am looking for unless I get the entry perfect.

I have noticed I don't want to enter a trade on a pullback. It's completely counter-intuitive. Given that the H4 and H1 and M30 are in place the M15 trade has a high probability.

Too many times I have entered when a trade has started to go my way, watched it eat up the spread, very nice thank you, go into profit a little, very nice again thank you, and then slap me across the face by pulling back. This is psychologically damaging. If I ride it out, which I have done many times, I think I've been lucky to get a result.

The pullback is exactly where I should be entering.
Hey smikester, here's an example of entering on a pullback that I took last night. Notice at my entry point the 15m is headed back up, I went short anyway because as you can see the 30m and 1h were both unaffected and showing good downward movement. I took 20 pips out of this trade.
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  • #891
  • Jan 19, 2008 4:57am Jan 19, 2008 4:57am
Quoting KudzuFX
It seems to me that most systems manage to do ok in a ranging market. MTF Stochastics however is not meant to help you in either range or trend markets. It has proved most useful to me when I decide going into the trade that I will at least go for 20 to 50 pips. MTF Stochs shows me when to get in. Getting out takes discipline. You are much better off aiming for 20-30 pips each time then trying to ride a trend wave. The wave could go with you, but then again it could go against you. Success is found in a long series of small, profitable steps.


Thanks,
Hi kudzu,

Thanks for posting your thoughts. Spud's original rules for his escalator system (which is the one I find to work better during a ranging market) is that you let the movement of the stochastics determine your profits. Get out when the 15m, 30m, or 1h reach overbought/sold levels. The same concept holds true for his elastic/rubber band system. However, doing so requires constant monitoring of your position which I can't always do. Like you, I'd prefer to go for set profit targets, right now I'm trying for only 20 per trade on the GBPJPY. The exceptions being when I'm targeting a swing high or low, or following Spud's original exit rules by closely monitoring the stochs. Following my post above, I'd gotten my head back in the game and ended the week with two profitable trades.
  • #892
  • Jan 19, 2008 5:14am Jan 19, 2008 5:14am
Good trade, Ocelot and thank you for posting that example. As long as I can get used to entering on pull backs, or at least expecting them, I think I can gain more confidence. The other thing is this. I hate to lose a trade. I take it too personally. Now if I had 10 losers in a row maybe that is how I should feel. But I need to get that detached view.

I would question your quote of Spudfyre "Get out when the 15m, 30m, or 1h reach overbought/sold levels". What he did say was: When the 15 gets below 20 (or latterly 23.6) that is where the pips are made - and my studies show this to be correct - and that you should get out when the 15 is leaving that area but definitely when the 30 is.
Gone to a better place
  • #893
  • Jan 19, 2008 12:44pm Jan 19, 2008 12:44pm
Quoting smikester
Good trade, Ocelot and thank you for posting that example. As long as I can get used to entering on pull backs, or at least expecting them, I think I can gain more confidence. The other thing is this. I hate to lose a trade. I take it too personally. Now if I had 10 losers in a row maybe that is how I should feel. But I need to get that detached view.

I would question your quote of Spudfyre "Get out when the 15m, 30m, or 1h reach overbought/sold levels". What he did say was: When the 15 gets below 20 (or latterly 23.6) that is where the pips are made - and my studies show this to be correct - and that you should get out when the 15 is leaving that area but definitely when the 30 is.
Definitely don't take it personally, I've fallen into that trap myself and that's when serious damage to your account can happen, revenge trading, etc. I do my best to "get over" every trade after it's closed, winner or loser, and move on to the next one. The beauty of this example is that I got in at exactly the right time and essentially had no drawdown. Hopefully it wasn't just luck. =) With regards to Spud's rules, yes, you're right, once a pair goes overbought/sold you can leave it open for more pips which you'd definitely get in a strong continuation move. The pullback trade above would have given an additional 50-60 pips had I left the trade on while waiting for the 15m to come back out of oversold. However, my main goal right now is for consistent small profits, and as little time time spent in front of the trading screen as possible so I'm happy to walk away with 20 pips. =) That's another great thing about this system, multiple exit strategies!
  • #894
  • Jan 21, 2008 10:00am Jan 21, 2008 10:00am
Quoting ocelot
Hi kudzu,

Thanks for posting your thoughts. Spud's original rules for his escalator system (which is the one I find to work better during a ranging market) is that you let the movement of the stochastics determine your profits. Get out when the 15m, 30m, or 1h reach overbought/sold levels. The same concept holds true for his elastic/rubber band system. However, doing so requires constant monitoring of your position which I can't always do. Like you, I'd prefer to go for set profit targets, right now I'm trying for only 20 per trade on the GBPJPY. The exceptions being when I'm targeting a swing high or low, or following Spud's original exit rules by closely monitoring the stochs. Following my post above, I'd gotten my head back in the game and ended the week with two profitable trades.
Yeah, I think you're right.
The turtle wins the race.
  • #895
  • Jan 25, 2008 3:24pm Jan 25, 2008 3:24pm
All of the sudden, everyone is gone. Have we lost our faith in STOCHS??
Here is a trade I took earlier today. Very simple trade off of the 5 min chart.
Larger time frames were in agreement.
Primary indicator; the 14,3,3, and 5,3,3 stochs.
Not sure why anyone one needs more than this...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5min for +125.jpg Size: 187 KB
  • #896
  • Jan 25, 2008 5:20pm Jan 25, 2008 5:20pm
Hi Pip,

Yes, I believe most are playing around with X50, the new holy grail. I, too, am spending time with it, and that's why I haven't been active here the last week or two. Also, I've been trying to shake a rather tenacious losing streak, so I tend not to post when I'm in that mode. Fortunately, I think I shook that bad spell today!

As you know, folks will go wherever they feel most comfortable and where they think they can find the most success. And -- that's how it should be. I think that in Forex, it's the destination that really counts, not so much the journey.

We've had a very successful thread here and -- if and when folks return -- if they want to post their MTFS trades or ideas, everyone is more than welcome. Just remember that our loyalty must always be to the pips, not the method.

I'm still hanging around, and I still utilize MTFS when the opportunity presents.

Take care...

Quoting PipAV8tor
All of the sudden, everyone is gone. Have we lost our faith in STOCHS??
Here is a trade I took earlier today. Very simple trade off of the 5 min chart.
Larger time frames were in agreement.
Primary indicator; the 14,3,3, and 5,3,3 stochs.
Not sure why anyone one needs more than this... Attachment
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #897
  • Jan 26, 2008 12:34am Jan 26, 2008 12:34am
Hey Stoch lovers,

I hope you guys that trade basic MTF stochs- keep it up -you will find it worth your while.

IMO -the only way you will get ahead is to stick to one system, you need to know and own it! Each time you change it you ,you go back two steps.

Jarret
  • #898
  • Jan 26, 2008 6:45am Jan 26, 2008 6:45am
Quoting Jarret
Hey Stoch lovers,

I hope you guys that trade basic MTF stochs- keep it up -you will find it worth your while.

IMO -the only way you will get ahead is to stick to one system, you need to know and own it! Each time you change it you ,you go back two steps.

Jarret
Yep, yep, Stoch lovers please keep this thread alive.

Below is my premature chart and the last profitable trade.

I'm kind of lazy switching to different timeframe so I put hr, 4hr, daily and weekly stoch all in one page
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh1.2.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #899
  • Jan 26, 2008 5:02pm Jan 26, 2008 5:02pm
Well fellow stoch lovers,
I will keep posting and I do believe that you go with "the one that brung ya", so I don't see myself changing any time soon. I like trading the 5 min, especially with the gbp/jpy and I am convinced you don't need anything other than the stoch's to do it. It is 10-15 pips (at least) every time I trade it and I can make that trade at least 6 times a day. why would I need anything else? Keep on Stochin'!!!!!
  • #900
  • Jan 26, 2008 5:54pm Jan 26, 2008 5:54pm
Hi Jackt,

Very nice trading!

I like your approach to the single chart. Obviously all stochs were in your favor. I wonder if you wouldn't mind sharing your stoch settings with us.

Thanks!

Quoting jackt
Yep, yep, Stoch lovers please keep this thread alive.

Below is my premature chart and the last profitable trade.

I'm kind of lazy switching to different timeframe so I put hr, 4hr, daily and weekly stoch all in one page
Jeff Singer, K2KV
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