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  • #21
  • Jan 21, 2008 5:07pm Jan 21, 2008 5:07pm
I think I'll throw a new and important subject out to all. What are some intelligent and intuitive opinions on what Australia's CPI will do to the commod's tomorrow?

"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #22
  • Jan 21, 2008 6:43pm Jan 21, 2008 6:43pm
Quoting TexasforEX
I think I'll throw a new and important subject out to all. What are some intelligent and intuitive opinions on what Australia's CPI will do to the commod's tomorrow?
The last few data releases, which have gone against the downward risk aversion trend, have seen some spikes but inevitably the overarching trend of risk aversion takes hold. I don't see anything stopping this risk aversion trend until the CBs start cutting imvho.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #23
  • Jan 21, 2008 9:41pm Jan 21, 2008 9:41pm
Austrailia's CPI could very well come in at or above expectations and support a rate hike by the RBA. IMO this will only temporarily support the aussie and the kiwi in perticular.

Technically, the kiwi has fallen into big trouble in the last 36 hours and any strength should be viewed as a selling opp.

7505 should be the absolute top for today or tomorrow and as stated above, after 7370 goes, I see only 7200 and 6980 as minor hurdles on the way to 6800.

Lots of ways to make dough in this volatile market I must say.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #24
  • Jan 22, 2008 2:58am Jan 22, 2008 2:58am
I'm amazed that Kiwi went from 7385 to 7492 in less than an hour.

7505 looking tough for now. Glad I cut half at 7394 expecting a bounce around 7370 but not this high! Great levels to re establish shorts though.

Volatility is through the roof. Dangerous waters to be swimming in.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #25
  • Jan 22, 2008 6:12am Jan 22, 2008 6:12am
I´m waiting 0,73..after back

Best Regards,
Marcelo Marques
  • #26
  • Jan 22, 2008 11:12am Jan 22, 2008 11:12am
Needless to say I've been too busy to post.....

I heard some rumors about this cut this morning and when it went down of course you could throw technical levels right out the window.

When 7505 was crushed I went flat and picked up a few pips buying it after the faux rally :

The real question is what's to come? I still favor more downside and carry unwinding. Need time to see what the yen will do as this will give insight into when and if the high yielders will fall.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #27
  • Edited 2:40pm Jan 22, 2008 1:29pm | Edited 2:40pm
Interesting to see that the manufactured rally in Kiwi stopped at 7670, which is right on a 4HR Fibo level(I realized that means nothing coz I didn't post a chart). 4HR fibs are 7934 - 7505. It's also very close to the 50pct of the last move from 7932 - 7383. It's far too early for a short signal yet
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #28
  • Jan 22, 2008 7:51pm Jan 22, 2008 7:51pm
The yen is showing beginning signs of weakening amid some rekindled optimism and bargain hunting in the equities. Combined with a high probability of an RBA hike and ANOTHER cut by the FED and I am starting to go back to my original forecast for the week. (See above)

Why did this rotten fruit have to break below the daily channel first? :surprised

I'm still flat BTW waiting for a better signal.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #29
  • Jan 22, 2008 8:12pm Jan 22, 2008 8:12pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Interesting to see that the manufactured rally in Kiwi stopped at 7670, which is right on a 4HR Fibo level(I realized that means nothing coz I didn't post a chart). 4HR fibs are 7934 - 7505. It's also very close to the 50pct of the last move from 7932 - 7383. It's far too early for a short signal yet
I've found that nearly all breakouts and news triggered events end at a Fib level. The technicals still reign in those situation.
  • #30
  • Jan 22, 2008 10:49pm Jan 22, 2008 10:49pm
there are numerous mixed signals for the rotten fruit currently. The yen completely reversed and the commod's followed. The aussie most surprisingly blew off a strong CPI number.

the only thing I know for sure right now is the Kiwi is still respecting my 4Hr fibo's. 7670 held and 7606 did it's part as well. Flat still...
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #31
  • Jan 22, 2008 10:59pm Jan 22, 2008 10:59pm
EUR/AUD approaching the upper limits of the range that's been in place from 11/23/07 until today.

Nice sell signal around 1.70 for today as that's probably the end of the Fib extension for the day and week, plus resistance at 12/5/07 high of 1.6995. Lower end of the range around 1.65.

A break above 1.7175 signals bullish breakout from pennant formation.
  • #32
  • Jan 24, 2008 9:24pm Jan 24, 2008 9:24pm
It appears that Kiwi and Aussie are gaining momentum and moving up. Mid time frames MA's have fallen into a perfect order. Kiwi has established itself over 7670 and the Aussie will stay above 8740.

This is a "Carry" move as the yen has broken out of it's 4 HR channel and there is a nice daily pin, which could signify a bottom for now.

I am skeptical about any follow through above 7930 and 9000 as this could be a dead cat bounce.

Current trades : Long on Kiwi from 7695


On a side note. I was thinking at what point down the road will the yen and the commod's move in the same direction (yen strengthens AND commod's strengthen, as opposed to know where they move in opposite directions due to the carry connection.

When will the USD be considered a "low yielder" or funding currency instead of the risky yen? Interesting times ahead as always.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #33
  • Jan 24, 2008 11:54pm Jan 24, 2008 11:54pm
Quoting TexasforEX
It appears that Kiwi and Aussie are gaining momentum and moving up. Mid time frames MA's have fallen into a perfect order. Kiwi has established itself over 7670 and the Aussie will stay above 8740.

This is a "Carry" move as the yen has broken out of it's 4 HR channel and there is a nice daily pin, which could signify a bottom for now.

I am skeptical about any follow through above 7930 and 9000 as this could be a dead cat bounce.

Current trades : Long on Kiwi from 7695


On a side note. I was thinking at what point down the road will the yen and the commod's move in the same direction (yen strengthens AND commod's strengthen, as opposed to know where they move in opposite directions due to the carry connection.

When will the USD be considered a "low yielder" or funding currency instead of the risky yen? Interesting times ahead as always.
Very good point on the USD becoming a low yielder.
  • #34
  • Jan 25, 2008 12:05am Jan 25, 2008 12:05am
Today's daily range for NZD/USD should be 7670 - 7770

7760/7770 is going to be tuff to crack, should be the ceiling for today. Day trader's should take profit if and when we attack this level again.

"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #35
  • Jan 25, 2008 8:21am Jan 25, 2008 8:21am
Quoting scexglobal
Very good point on the USD becoming a low yielder.
USD has been the funding currency for carries since the first 50bps cut.
  • #36
  • Jan 27, 2008 6:44pm Jan 27, 2008 6:44pm
Quoting youalreadykn
USD has been the funding currency for carries since the first 50bps cut.
Keep comments focused on current market conditions, opportunities, etc...See first page of thread.

If you MUST correct somebody else, than at least make it a discussion by including facts, opinions and comments about the subject, not just a blind statement

Thanks alot....
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #37
  • Jan 27, 2008 6:53pm Jan 27, 2008 6:53pm
There have been at least 3 bounces off 7670 in Kiwi that have been good for at least 20 pips each. I got one.:

The yen has fallen into the chop and there's no need to try and guess what will happen. Volatility will be very high this week and there will be loads of trading opps.

Better to be a reactive trader than a predictive trader in many instances, especially the start of a new week with massive news accouncements.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #38
  • Jan 28, 2008 12:01pm Jan 28, 2008 12:01pm
This post mainly concerns the EUR/AUD, but I'm sure that other AUD traders could benefit from a discussion of this pair.

Since the beginning of the year the AUD has been less and less able to recover from bad news events.

Bhutto's assasination: The pair recovered toward the AUD in a very nice H&S pattern. Even a very crappy NFP report was followed by a swift recovery to the 1.6500 region. Right now, however, after last week's blood bath, the AUD is becomingless resilliant. Note the diagonal resistance line, guiding the pair since mid-January. Further downward movement, would necessitate a break of this resistance line.

End of the 10-year triangle?

Looking at the 2001-2003 period (last U.S. recession) on the 10 year EUR/AUD chart, it is clear that the pair 'lifted' toward the EUR, until Greenspan went on his 'chopping spree' in 2003-2004. In addition, the current channel has broken through the 10 year triangle. (Interestingly, the pair reached below 1.5500 during the 'happy days' dot com equity boom).

The EUR/AUD is very sensitive and responds worse to bad news than the AUD/USD, so a break of .8880 could still be in the cards.

For the EUR/AUD to break out of it's multi-month long pennant,

A clean break of 1.6950 would indicate higher movement toward the EUR
A clean break of 1.6500 would spell futher movement toward AUD.

rudenstein
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  • #39
  • Jan 28, 2008 12:35pm Jan 28, 2008 12:35pm
Well after last week's "temper tantrum" the Kiwi is learning some manners and following the 4HR fibo's very nicely. 7670 was a perfect buy last night and 7770 is capping so far today.

I'm looking for 7720 to be the low for tomorrow and a good place to reenter longs.

These are still dangerous waters IMO. But I'll enjoy the calm before the storm.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #40
  • Jan 28, 2008 12:52pm Jan 28, 2008 12:52pm
I'm thinking about last weeks Emergency meeting and the obvious ramifications it had on the markets.

In my opinion, it basically stopped a move that was locked, loaded and ready to fire. FYI, the move was about a 5-8% drop in equities and the carry trades would have followed suit as well.

So, the commod's have fallen back into their respective channels and ranges for now. Well, should traders even use the false break in their analysis?

In the Kiwi for example....7383 was the low. However, I'm still using 7505 as the channel low in my analysis. I've used 7383 as well and 7505 is being respected better for now...

In the Aussie.....8510 was the low. Now the Aussie is a bit different because it doesn't follow ST and MT Fib's nearly as well as the Kiwi so I don't have a good opinion if technically it's valid or not.

BUT both bottoms fell on Daily FIBO's, which is to be expected. And in hindsight were great chances to fade weakness.

I'd have to conclude that when an event SHOCKS the market the price action caused really isn't that useful and should be viewed with a grain of salt.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
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