Attachments: GBP Patterns, Facts, Trivia

GBP Patterns, Facts, Trivia

#21
Dec 10, 2006 8:16am Dec 10, 2006 8:16am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

The Average distance between the high and low of the gbp/usd on a weekly basis is :
311 pips 2005
317 pips 2006 to date
314 pips two years combined

#22
Dec 10, 2006 9:35am Dec 10, 2006 9:35am

fixme1too
| Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Senior Member | 1,257 Posts

this is good to know tom. I looked at this too and came up with the conclusion that we may drop to the mid 9200's on the cable this week then retrace to the 50% fib

Quoting goodthings

Disliked

The Average distance between the high and low of the gbp/usd on a weekly basis is :
311 pips 2005
317 pips 2006 to date
314 pips two years combined

Ignored

#23
Dec 10, 2006 9:50am Dec 10, 2006 9:50am

shahfx
| Joined Apr 2004 | Status: Trader | 89 Posts

i really like that goodthings and fixme1too..and i want to add some more-the highest or lowest of the week always happen on monday or tuesday and take profit always happen on friday..

#24
Dec 10, 2006 10:17am Dec 10, 2006 10:17am

Leugimp
| Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,385 Posts

GBPUSD respects S&R levels much better on a closing basis on tick charts than it does on minute or hourly charts. Pretty easy to see spikes and predict subsequent movement on certain tick charts. - The only time to be extremely cautious with this is when the end of the tick bar coincides with the last minute of any 15 minute time bar, especially x:45 or x:00 bars.

Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails

#25
Dec 15, 2006 7:55am Dec 15, 2006 7:55am

edu
| Joined Oct 2004 | Status: Trader | 13 Posts

Quoting Leugimp

Disliked

GBPUSD respects S&R levels much better on a closing basis on tick charts than it does on minute or hourly charts. Pretty easy to see spikes and predict subsequent movement on certain tick charts. - The only time to be extremely cautious with this is when the end of the tick bar coincides with the last minute of any 15 minute time bar, especially x:45 or x:00 bars.

Ignored

Hi Leugimp. What tick charts do you like using (i.e. 1, 25, etc) ?
thanks

#26
Jan 8, 2007 9:27am Jan 8, 2007 9:27am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

Tike this is in regards to our PM

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#27
Jan 8, 2007 9:38am Jan 8, 2007 9:38am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

Tiki just adding a few more things too.

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#28
Jan 8, 2007 2:23pm Jan 8, 2007 2:23pm

ghitz
| Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 132 Posts

1) flags, trade flags. extra reliable on cable. tend to get to the target all the time.

2) Asian Session with a tight range, trade breakouts. target equals size of range, add to breakout. no brainer. a more complicated approach is called big ben.

With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/

#29
Jan 8, 2007 2:35pm Jan 8, 2007 2:35pm

Gateway
| Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Trader | 10 Posts

Do you mind showing a chart on your number 1 and 2. Would like to learn more.

#30
Edited Mar 3, 2007 2:57pm Jan 8, 2007 2:53pm | Edited Mar 3, 2007 2:57pm

ghitz
| Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 132 Posts

Quoting Gateway

Disliked

Do you mind showing a chart on your number 1 and 2. Would like to learn more.

Ignored

learn about flags
http://thepatternsite.com/index.html
www.chartpatterns.com

for asian range, go to
www.trading-strategies.info
register, and go to video tutorials. it is a video of how to trade the asian range or asian breakout. no need to pay for the free videos. really excellent.

flags,

With a break always expect a pullback, otherwise, you're dead meat/

#31
Jan 8, 2007 10:49pm Jan 8, 2007 10:49pm

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

Looked at some interesting trend reversal probabilities with the GbpUsd. In my opinion trades should not just be based on reversal probability but this can help give you a comfort of being with the trend. One should still use price action, fibs, pivot points, resistance levels, support levels, and other indicators.

When it has moved the following pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is as follows:

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When it moves 0-9 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is 75%.

When it moves 10-19 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is 55%.

When it moves 20-29 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is 40 %.

When it moves 30-39 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is 25%.

When it moves 40-49 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is 13%.

When it moves 50-59 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is 8%.

When it moves 60-69 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is 4%.

When it moves 70 pips from the days opening the probability of it reversing the trend is less then 1%.

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You might say well who would wait 50, 60, 70 pips to make a trade. That does not make sense. Also just because you wait 70 pips does not guarantee a successful trade. See charts for explanation. But given some thought you can reduce your risk. So here is some more numbers based on waiting 50 60 or 70 pips before entering a trade. Looking at the GbpUsd in 2006 the total pips remaining is as follows

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<TABLE style="WIDTH: 453pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 0in" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=604 border=0><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15.75pt"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 49pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=65><o

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</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 49pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=65><o

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</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 51pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=68><o

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>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 50pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=67><o

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</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 62pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=83><o

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</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 48pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=64>50 pips<o></o>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 48pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=64>60 pips<o></o>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 48pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap width=64>70 pips<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap colSpan=6>Number of trades you would have entered after waiting <o

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</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap>

237<o></o>

</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap>

208<o></o>

187<o></o>

</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap colSpan=5>Number of those trades you would make 10 pips <o

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199<o></o>

174<o></o>

151<o></o>

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</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 0in; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 15pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=bottom noWrap colSpan=3>Winning percentage<o

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0.839<o></o>

0.836<o></o>

0.807<o></o>

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14682<o></o>

12457<o></o>

10505<o></o>

></o

73.77<o></o>

71.59<o></o>

69.57<o></o>

></o

-5.79<o></o>

-5.86<o></o>

-7.15<o></o>

></o

67.98<o></o>

65.73<o></o>

62.42<o></o>

></o

3980<o></o>

3480<o></o>

3020<o></o>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

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This is just one tool or way of thinking that can contribute to other successful trading techniques to add to your yearly pip count. Stop losses should be used as seen fit. For me this helps me to be patient knowing that there are a lot of pips out there. Still have to be on the ball to take advantage of the trend though. I am also sure when given more thought some of this will change but the over all opportunity for success is high with a good pip count.

#32
Jan 8, 2007 10:51pm Jan 8, 2007 10:51pm

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

For your review

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#33
Jan 8, 2007 10:54pm Jan 8, 2007 10:54pm

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

Another 70 pip reversal

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#34
Jan 8, 2007 10:55pm Jan 8, 2007 10:55pm

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

Very little movement this day.

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#35
Jan 8, 2007 10:58pm Jan 8, 2007 10:58pm

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

More then likely not waited until 70 pips if that was your system. Next day or two have graphs with 60 pip reversal (already had one ) and 50 pip reversal.

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#36
Jan 8, 2007 11:55pm Jan 8, 2007 11:55pm

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

This is what I was talking about with a bare minimum profit with waiting for 50 pip move and getting atleast a 10 pip profit.

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#37
Jan 9, 2007 12:20am Jan 9, 2007 12:20am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

See how knowing the reversal probabilities and practicing them with other sound trading techniques can help you get the most out of a trend Just know that when it moves 70 pips beyond the days opening the likeliness of it reversing is less then 1%. Yes there can be a retracement to a fib level but when you see that the gbpusd has not hit it's daily average you may want to stay in longer. See post 31 for full explanation. Maybe oversimplified but yet still is information that helps a person make a trade.

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#38
Jan 9, 2007 12:34am Jan 9, 2007 12:34am

goodthings
Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,852 Posts

Right now at this post the pound is stalling but it has move 47 pips from the opening and the probability of it reversing is 13%. It may of course but it is at a current resistence point and when the pace picks up in the hour or so you know that there is an 87% probability the trend will continue. So far the days low is 9380 and the pound being at 9425 and with average daily range being 138 pips and commonly moves 125 pips it will move to 9505 9518 which is another 80 to 93 pips from where it is now. Also taking into count that pound commonly from now until around 3am it will move up and down against the trend. Add this to what you already know and you can begin to make good trading choices.

#39
Jan 9, 2007 1:37am Jan 9, 2007 1:37am

megamo
| Joined Sep 2006 | Status: BengalTrader | 175 Posts

What time are you using for the GBP open, if you are saying it has moved up 47 pips since open. I'm on EST so I see your post time being 1:30 ish EST, which is before the london open, so I am a little confused from which open do you track the GBP, is it the asian open at around 8pm EST?

#40
Jan 9, 2007 3:02am Jan 9, 2007 3:02am

firehorse
| Joined Mar 2005 | Status: Trader | 207 Posts

Hi goodthings,

A very interesting post.

Could you clarify if the 10pips include 5 pip spread?
e.g. price moved 15pips to get you net 10pips.

"Say you lost 30 pips on every bad trade which to me is a lot if you use good common sence in your trading".

In my experience found that assumptions like these need to be rigorously tested.

You need to balance risk and reward with every decision you make.

Once the price exceeds your trigger point 50,60,70, how much are you will to risk before it reaches your target of 10 or above.

Unless you are mechanically working with 1min timeframe charts, you need to examine every single trade to see if there has not been a retrace past your stoploss e.g. 30 (-spread) before hitting your target (+spread)

The larger your target the higher the probability it has of hitting your stoploss.

Also, once you have a large number of trades e.g. 237, spread becomes a significant factor in calculations. 237 x 5 = 1185. Not insignificant.

I know what you presented is not a completed system but it certainly has some good ideas for further testing.

Best regards
Alan

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