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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #981
  • Edited 1:24am Jan 23, 2008 1:09am | Edited 1:24am
The Romance of the 3 Kingdoms.
-------------------------------

Quoting fti
Leon,
Yoyo and gum ball???

Generally analysis of the forex markets is confined to broad analysis of the relationship between,
1.The Allied stronghold currencies, eg the cable , EUR(lately), AUS, etc
2. The USD
3. The inferiors and exotics. eg DMK (retired), YEN, CHF, etc

Therefore the romance of the 3 kingdoms.
I may discuss that if we have the opportunity to, after we finish the Sun Zi Bing Fa.


regards
That's in a nut shell is the romancing the 3 kingdom.
The symbiotic relationship between the USD vs EUR/GBP vs YEN.
They tell stories of whats normal and whats queer.

Seems the iron lady was sleeping with the japs.this round and gave lead.
Doesn't it?
Attached Image
  • #982
  • Jan 23, 2008 1:59am Jan 23, 2008 1:59am
Hi Fti,

guess your RO3K in short is inter-market analysis and money flows. Its fairly evident on the Daily but I can't make out the abnormalities on the hourly. More explanation please......

I have been thinking why has the GBP correlation detach from the Eur. Any explanation?
  • #983
  • Jan 23, 2008 2:30am Jan 23, 2008 2:30am
Quoting sitoca
Hi Fti,

guess your RO3K in short is inter-market analysis and money flows. Its fairly evident on the Daily but I can't make out the abnormalities on the hourly. More explanation please......

I have been thinking why has the GBP correlation detach from the Eur. Any explanation?
Hi sitoca,

You are in the money there.

On the hourly you are seeing relationship abnomality.
Notice how the USD is strengthening against the EUR and GBP while weaking against the yen at the same instances.(White box windows) So really there is much crosses tear. But its basically a tussle of the regional zones.

There's however an invisible purpose to all this.
Ponder this.
Which nation in the world is now carrying the most USD reserves and growing at hyper growth?
What exchange rate system are they on?
Do you understand managed pegging?
What sort of pressures can be imposed to them by USD devaluation?
Where is the most excessible front line markets for direct impact?
Bingo, equities!! and who to use as proxy front?

You asked why. It doesn't matter why, except that it did.
I am so sorry, I am dealer. Beats me too.
I don't ask why.
I see that something is cooking.
I only want to find the way to capitalise on it.
Normally by the time I am privy to why(if I ever be), its probably all over.

For me I never seek to know why a table is called a table.
A rose by any other name is still a rose, as far as I am concerned.

regards
  • #984
  • Jan 23, 2008 2:50am Jan 23, 2008 2:50am
Hi ALL,

Crystal ball stuff.

This is probably whats gonna happen.
Many USD Bulls and Bears will be culled. All pigs will die.
For the Bears. the wild galoping volatility will kill the greedy (overexposed) and the cowards (those waiting for confirmation before coming out to play).
For Bulls, its not their cycle.

This is very natural in volatile markets as well as life. It is known by the term "natural selection". ie survival of the fit.

So move carefully and nimbly. Don't be a hero neither be a coward.
Move swiftly and decisively.

"He must not linger at desolate ground, which is uninhabitable."
-Sun Zi

regards
  • #985
  • Jan 23, 2008 2:51am Jan 23, 2008 2:51am
Quoting fti
Hi sitoca,

You are in the money there.

On the hourly you are seeing relationship abnomality.
Notice how the USD is strengthening against the EUR and GBP while weaking against the yen at the same instances.(White box windows) So really there is much crosses tear. But its basically a tussle of the regional zones.

There's however an invisible purpose to all this.
Ponder this.
Which nation in the world is now carrying the most USD reserves and growing at hyper growth?
What exchange rate system are they on?
Do you understand managed pegging?
What sort of pressures can be imposed to them by USD devaluation?
Where is the most excessible front line markets for direct impact?
Bingo, equities!! and who to use as proxy front?

This purpose is clear if you think about trade balances and what they mean to productivity and exports...

The question is - will new trend continue after recent coordinated move, or is this just the first leg of a highly volatile sideways fight?
  • #986
  • Jan 23, 2008 2:53am Jan 23, 2008 2:53am
Quoting fti
Hi sitoca,

You asked why. It doesn't matter why, except that it did.
I am so sorry, I am dealer. Beats me too.
I don't ask why.
I see that something is cooking.
I only want to find the way to capitalise on it.
Normally by the time I am privy to why(if I ever be), its probably all over.

For me I never seek to know why a table is called a table.
A rose by any other name is still a rose, as far as I am concerned.

regards
Reminds me of the time my nephew ask:" Why is the moon round?" I just stared at him blankly and reply:" Shut up! Just accept its bloody round!!"



Its nice to be young again.......
  • #987
  • Jan 23, 2008 3:01am Jan 23, 2008 3:01am
Quoting Ninto
This purpose is clear if you think about trade balances and what they mean to productivity and exports...

The question is - will new trend continue after recent coordinated move, or is this just the first leg of a highly volatile sideways fight?
Hi Ninto,
The battle's just begun,
(Round ONE), ting.
Will there be a truce?
Will some itchy finger go press the button?
Will they be married and live happily ever after?

Well, the future will tell, Sorry for being unhelpful.

regards
  • #988
  • Jan 23, 2008 3:26am Jan 23, 2008 3:26am
Quoting fti
Hi Ninto,
The battle's just begun,
(Round ONE), ting.
Will there be a truce?
Will some itchy finger go press the button?
Will they be married and live happily ever after?

Well, the future will tell, Sorry for being unhelpful.

regards
Yes, the future will tell. You're not unhelpful, just unspecific.

If I may, I'd like to answer your questions.

No,
Yes,
No.

Personally, I plan on buying and selling. Sometimes at the same time!
  • #989
  • Jan 23, 2008 4:00am Jan 23, 2008 4:00am
Quoting fti
For me , NOW the bubble must surely burst. And don't be foolish enough to catch falling knife. Flight to store of value is paramount for now. Could anyone recommend retail FX brokers who accept depos in other currencies. (not USD or the EUR.)
Hi FTI,

I really like this thread and your inputs are always very insightful. What people here in Hong Kong basically save their hard earned money in Hong Kong Dollar which is equal to USD. Do you have any simple suggestions to better safeguard our savings which have already devalued much in recent years? Do you mean EUR is also no good in the long run? How about diversifying the risks in investing in commodities like gold or oil? Many thanks.

Regards,
pipal
  • #990
  • Jan 23, 2008 4:40am Jan 23, 2008 4:40am
Quoting pipal
Hi FTI,

I really like this thread and your inputs are always very insightful. What people here in Hong Kong basically save their hard earned money in Hong Kong Dollar which is equal to USD. Do you have any simple suggestions to better safeguard our savings which have already devalued much in recent years? Do you mean EUR is also no good in the long run? How about diversifying the risks in investing in commodities like gold or oil? Many thanks.

Regards,
pipal
Hi pipal,
If any consolation, you are not the only ones in the soup.
Simple solutions, I am afraid, is akin to the stones and a hard place situation, difficult to find.
Best bet is trading with proper skills, hedging when necessary, and advancing net worth when opportunities arises.
You do understand that in the land of the blind, the one eyed jack is king.
The gold and oil markets are controlled by powerful overlords. Moreover the volume is thin , so you will have to content with playing fiddle to them.
Forex seems the solution for now,for its versitility. It seems forex is begining o open up for the masses. Just that, necessary skills and effort is required to be a step ahead. Be aware that "basket of currencies" methodology seems the way for the governments, so it shouldn't be too different for high networth individuals but for the rest, diligences seems the way.

Diversification of investments , is important so as not to keep all eggs in one basket.

regards
  • #991
  • Jan 23, 2008 4:45am Jan 23, 2008 4:45am
Quoting Jairo
Hi fti,

My equity jumped 43% in one minute. I think this wil never happen again. The luckiest move I have ever made in my life!!

14875912 2008.01.22 13:19 buy 1.28 eurusd 1.4497 0.0000 0.0000 2008.01.22 13:20 1.4571 0.00 0.00 0.00 947.20



Look forward to hearing about the 3 kingdoms. Good trading to all of us.
Congratulations Jairo, for your new found wealth.
Be mindful, try not to spend it all in one place.

regards
  • #992
  • Jan 23, 2008 9:12am Jan 23, 2008 9:12am
@ fti
Could anyone recommend retail FX brokers who accept depos in other currencies. (not USD or the EUR.)
I think Oanda excepts any funds.
Alex
  • #993
  • Jan 23, 2008 9:29am Jan 23, 2008 9:29am
From your original post on this thread: 'I suggest three very important ingredients. One is " Market Structure ", the other is "YOU", then Capitalisation.'

Agreed. But actually, that's just about it, but I would put the 'YOU' first, because without having that right, the rest is irrelevant!

It's what LBT can show you in very simple ways, without the hype and certainly without the complexity that most traders seem to get hooked on.

But first 'YOU' have to be ready to see something new, and want it. Otherwise, threads like this continue with countless opinions rather than the direct experience.

Nice quote I found recently: "If you want something you never had, you have to do something you have never done before."

Happy trading!
The framework is there; we just have to work on our frame of mind.
  • #994
  • Jan 23, 2008 9:51am Jan 23, 2008 9:51am
Quoting alexfot
@ fti
Could anyone recommend retail FX brokers who accept depos in other currencies. (not USD or the EUR.)
I think Oanda excepts any funds.
Alex
Thanks Alexfot,
Oanda was one of the first demos I tried.
Didn't fancy their platform, will give them another go soon.
Now on Efx which leighsww recommended. Its less frustrating compared to MT4 broker structure.
Their quotes are respectable, only problem seems their platfom abit dated, and they charge brokerage for trades. I like their allowing traders to trade into the spreads but I was told next week they will be introducing new platform. I ll see how it goes.
I will keep Oanda KIV for now.

regards
  • #995
  • Jan 23, 2008 10:02am Jan 23, 2008 10:02am
Quoting niceguy777
From your original post on this thread: 'I suggest three very important ingredients. One is " Market Structure ", the other is "YOU", then Capitalisation.'

Agreed. But actually, that's just about it, but I would put the 'YOU' first, because without having that right, the rest is irrelevant!

It's what LBT can show you in very simple ways, without the hype and certainly without the complexity that most traders seem to get hooked on.

But first 'YOU' have to be ready to see something new, and want it. Otherwise, threads like this continue with countless opinions rather than the direct experience.

Nice quote I found recently: "If you want something you never had, you have to do something you have never done before."

Happy trading!
niceguy777,
Theoritically, thats it.
The difficulty is in the molding mindset as in "YOU".
And the tying it all together with MM and MO.

In practise, that where most fail. Mostly due to EGOR, the ego.
Complacency and lack of experience.

The worst failures comes from rigidity in MO, and lack of analytics and time dedication to markets.
If you can overcome these potholes, trading can be an exciting and profitable profession.

regards
  • #996
  • Jan 23, 2008 10:44am Jan 23, 2008 10:44am
Quoting fti
Best bet is trading with proper skills, hedging when necessary, and advancing net worth when opportunities arises.
Hi FTI,

Yes. That's why I am learning hard to trade. Many thanks for your advice. I guess I may need to save more in currencies other than USD, except my forex trading.

RE EFX/MB Trading, their charge of $50/mil is really at the high end IMO. There should be some other ECN brokers charging less than $20/mil.

Regards,
pipal
  • #997
  • Edited 11:20am Jan 23, 2008 11:08am | Edited 11:20am
Quoting pipal
Hi FTI,

Yes. That's why I am learning hard to trade. Many thanks for your advice. I guess I may need to save more in currencies other than USD, except my forex trading.

RE EFX/MB Trading, their charge of $50/mil is really at the high end IMO. There should be some other ECN brokers charging less than $20/mil.

Regards,
pipal
Hi Pipal,

really EFX, they charge $50 per mio. Didn't realise that as only second day on it.
Been making $$ so didn't pay too much attention on the bro yet.
Thats highway robbery, LOL

the search continues, any specific suggestions?
So far MT4 seems best charting platform. A lot like Metastocks.
FXCM's charts comes close second.

But I need good ECN platform, and good chart platform.
Of course tight spreads and reliable broker.
Seems not an easy task to sieve thru those available.

at US$50/mio I think I shall not waste time on EFX then.
Thanks for info , pipal

regards

PS: I checked , Yes you are absolutely correct.

"Commissions are based on total dollar amount traded: $5 per $100,000 traded."

Absolutely unacceptable, gotta inform Leighsww.
Thanks again pipal.
  • #998
  • Jan 23, 2008 11:17am Jan 23, 2008 11:17am
Hi fti,

Sorry I am not advertising this book, but I am impressed from.

Millionaire Traders -> How everyday People are beating wall street at its own game
 from Kathy Lien: interview 12 everydays traders, starting with small accounts, now running 6-7 figures accounts. (nice book, real people real fighters)

ebook for $34 @ diesel-ebooks.com
  • #999
  • Jan 23, 2008 11:26am Jan 23, 2008 11:26am
Quoting Piters
Hi fti,

Sorry I am not advertising this book, but I am impressed from.

Millionaire Traders -> How everyday People are beating wall street at its own game
 from Kathy Lien: interview 12 everydays traders, starting with small accounts, now running 6-7 figures accounts. (nice book, real people real fighters)

ebook for $34 @ diesel-ebooks.com
Sorry friend, but I think I read about how this wannabe tried to mouthpiece for CB, I think she works for FXCM, if not mistaken. I think she's broker, whether legit, big ??.
For now, she's in my books as small potato wearing big hat.
Seems jack of all trades , master of none.

regards
  • #1,000
  • Jan 23, 2008 11:34am Jan 23, 2008 11:34am
fti,

mfglobal charges 1pip per trade...not good but i think its negotiable considering ur volume

hotspotfx $3 per lot

odl uses currenex, i think comms are negotiable

interactive brokers, was it $1.5?...can someone correct me for this one
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