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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #59,881
  • Jan 22, 2008 10:56am Jan 22, 2008 10:56am
Quoting orbito
whats a great day. i have made my record of $490 today with 10K lots and my "Zipfel Strategy"!

Thanks
Orbito
great job orbito
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #59,882
  • Jan 22, 2008 11:01am Jan 22, 2008 11:01am
Quoting Trumpcard
my sentiments too. the fundamentals haent changed all that much, still US reporting season, and I just don't get how 1 week Big Ben can say there's nothing wrong with the economy but we'll watch it, and in the meantime the data keeps getting worse and hey presto lets cut rates by .75% as the economy is a basket case!
Agreed, markets will have to take its natural course to correct itself. Anything done by the fed et al. is only prolonging the inevitable. . .

GJ will probably test 200 or slightly below (50% fib on monthly) at some point and pehaps lower before seeing significant support. . .JMHO
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  • #59,883
  • Jan 22, 2008 11:05am Jan 22, 2008 11:05am
Quoting moneymagnet
q, u still short from yesterday
I close my shorts out from last week @ 212.26 when price dropped to 205.00 earlier
I just shorted GJ again today b/n 208 - 209 and looking to short more up to 212 if it goes that high. . .
  • #59,884
  • Jan 22, 2008 11:47am Jan 22, 2008 11:47am
Quoting quecee5
I close my shorts out from last week @ 212.26 when price dropped to 205.00 earlier
I just shorted GJ again today b/n 208 - 209 and looking to short more up to 212 if it goes that high. . .

i never doubt u q but what scares me is that the monthly fib i drew earlier is 203.9 to 204.7 depending on data feed at 61.8 ad i dont know if 50 fib is in the cards yet....so just my 2 censts bud
  • #59,885
  • Jan 22, 2008 11:50am Jan 22, 2008 11:50am
Quoting my2buoys
[/color]

When I see it developing I look for a secondary confirmatioccording to my research on GBP/JPY, divergence on the 4H chart will run anywhere from 300 to 700 pips. That means that, even if you discover it a bit late, you can still look for a good entry and pick up some decent pips knowing the projected range of that kind of move. Fibs can help determine more specifically just how much price might move after divergence has been confirmed.

M2B
Nice,think I have a bit clearer picture. Have just started to scratch the surface of divergence and how to take it into play, and getting a feeling of the potential knowledge lying in front of me. Thanks for making this clearer
Measure twice, cut once
  • #59,886
  • Jan 22, 2008 12:00pm Jan 22, 2008 12:00pm
Quoting dagoods
i never doubt u q but what scares me is that the monthly fib i drew earlier is 203.9 to 204.7 depending on data feed at 61.8 ad i dont know if 50 fib is in the cards yet....so just my 2 censts bud
So are you thinking it has bottomed?
I see it possibly going back to touch 212 (maybe) then back down to 200 or below, 50% fib on a monthly. If you think it has bottomed what has changed fundamentally to warrant an uptrend/reversal - just curious???
  • #59,887
  • Jan 22, 2008 12:08pm Jan 22, 2008 12:08pm
Quoting quecee5
So are you thinking it has bottomed?
I see it possibly going back to touch 212 (maybe) then back down to 200 or below, 50% fib on a monthly. If you think it has bottomed what has changed fundamentally to warrant an uptrend/reversal - just curious???

nothing fundamental has changed yet.... so its just a fib thing is all... tom demark new science of tech analysis chapter 2 on retracements so i just am careful that MAYBE possibly it has temporarily bottomed according to td we go to 61 fib then 38 fib most often but i know gj loves 50 fibs...so who knows... but i am wary and like i said it may not have even touched the 61 yet.... depends on your data feed and i have also been told that on big monthly fibs there can be slop of over 200 pips so its just a possibility that it has bottomed..... for me it is prudent to be careful is all

PS if u are using tome demark tdtl u would be taking nice longs all day here
  • #59,888
  • Jan 22, 2008 12:13pm Jan 22, 2008 12:13pm
Quoting quecee5
So are you thinking it has bottomed?
I see it possibly going back to touch 212 (maybe) then back down to 200 or below, 50% fib on a monthly. If you think it has bottomed what has changed fundamentally to warrant an uptrend/reversal - just curious???
I think we could possibly touch 214, just based on retracement factors. I'll go more into detail once I actually get a good look at it on different timeframes. If it doesn't close that high this week, then maybe your right quecee and 212 would be a top as it held as solid support before.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #59,889
  • Jan 22, 2008 12:17pm Jan 22, 2008 12:17pm
just had a look at momentum and saw it's pointing down from 1hr down to 1min
  • #59,890
  • Jan 22, 2008 12:18pm Jan 22, 2008 12:18pm
dagood, u have drawn your fib from top down instead of bottom up,
bottom up = retracement of up move and vice versa, careful u dont confuse yourself. Price currently hanging around .404 level of retracement
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #59,891
  • Jan 22, 2008 12:21pm Jan 22, 2008 12:21pm
Quoting quecee5
So are you thinking it has bottomed?
I see it possibly going back to touch 212 (maybe) then back down to 200 or below, 50% fib on a monthly. If you think it has bottomed what has changed fundamentally to warrant an uptrend/reversal - just curious???
hi by budd
in the way to up gj has significant resisitances at daily 5sma high at 210.90 area and daily gannhilo at 212.80 area.
but one thing we must consider that is the 4hr 50ema at 210.40 area.
if you see the chart in 4hr TF,you see that if price be closed above 4hr 50 ema,then it will reach least to 4hr 100 sma.
4hr 100sma now at 214 area.
so with this explanation i mean we have these scenarios:
1-price maximum reaches to daily 5sma high and then back to down ward.
2-if price be closed above 4hr 50ema,it will reach least to 4hr 100sma area and then back to downward.
3-if price break daily ganhilo and close above that,we have change trend from bearish to bullish.

p.s:it just my 2 cents maybe
  • #59,892
  • Jan 22, 2008 12:22pm Jan 22, 2008 12:22pm
it is at the weekly and the 50 ema, might be tough resistance. and then 200? 4hr
Losers Complain, Winners Train! Utah
  • #59,893
  • Jan 22, 2008 12:22pm Jan 22, 2008 12:22pm
Quoting OrionsWay
dagood, u have drawn your fib from top down instead of bottom up,
bottom up = retracement of up move and vice versa, careful u dont confuse yourself. Price currently hanging around .404 level of retracement

i know orion i did it like that for a reason..... on monthly chart we are in an uptrend retracing down remember (has been uptrend for years) so...... thank u though... or do u mean that my 61 and 38 are reversed? are u referring to 61 and 38 being backwards? thanks orion

PS i was expecting us to see 194.48 by years end and still havent changed that position so q nothing fundamentl has changed for me but.... how far retracements go is a mystery to me so i am careful is all
  • #59,894
  • Jan 22, 2008 12:24pm Jan 22, 2008 12:24pm
yes if u draw from bottom to top they will reverse and if u also add .404 u will see actual support where price is now yesterday was a wash

Or draw a retracement extension with 1.62 2.62 in the set from the bottom 8/17 up to 11/1 another point of confluence
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #59,895
  • Jan 22, 2008 12:26pm Jan 22, 2008 12:26pm
Quoting OrionsWay
yes if u draw from bottom to top they will reverse and if u also add .404 u will see actual support where price is now yesterday was a wash

OK thank u orion... interesting 404 never heard of that one must be a gann thing
  • #59,896
  • Jan 22, 2008 12:29pm Jan 22, 2008 12:29pm
Quoting OrionsWay
yes if u draw from bottom to top they will reverse and if u also add .404 u will see actual support where price is now yesterday was a wash

Or draw a retracement extension with 1.62 2.62 in the set from the bottom 8/17 up to 11/1 another point of confluence

so then u think it goes down eventually to the lower fib (your 61)? just curious on your long term view thanks mate
  • #59,897
  • Jan 22, 2008 12:33pm Jan 22, 2008 12:33pm
Na just different vibratory ratios
excellent book on this is Bryce Gimores Geometry of markets I and II
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #59,898
  • Edited 12:53pm Jan 22, 2008 12:37pm | Edited 12:53pm
Quoting quecee5
I close my shorts out from last week @ 212.26 when price dropped to 205.00 earlier
I just shorted GJ again today b/n 208 - 209 and looking to short more up to 212 if it goes that high. . .

the more i look the more i agree with u q i see 212.41 as probable most it can go topside b4 coming down again....but i will wait b4 trying any shorts for now ... PS we broke the daily r1 upside and seemed to be headed to daily r2 but then we ran into weekly pivot level...peaked though the weekly pivot (i have 209.77 but these vary depending if u use demarks or other variations)
but have yet to trade above it so...... who knows
  • #59,899
  • Jan 22, 2008 12:59pm Jan 22, 2008 12:59pm
Quoting dagoods
the more i look the more i agree with u q i see 212.41 as probable most it can go topside b4 coming down again....but i will wait b4 trying any shorts for now ... PS we broke the daily r1 upside and seemed to be headed to daily r2 but then we ran into weekly pivot level...peaked though the weekly pivot but have yet to trade above it so...... who knows
I'll have more confirmation in a few, but right now based on what I'm seeing in the charts, we have a double top on 4hr @ 212.50 that has proven to be tough resistance and yes weekly pivot comes in @ 209.80's which it was just rejected. . .

I'm now waiting on a 30 min ZL Stoch to cross over to confirm (early signal for mr) that the downtrend has continued. . . Also, my ZL MACD is starting to roll over on 30 min. A close below 30 gann hi/lo another early signal for me that downtrend has continued. Will post a chart shortly. . .

I'm short all over again from 208 all the way up to 209.60

Sell all rallies in a down trend, wait for charts to tell u when its time to buy long term. . . Fundamentally, nothing has changed so. . .
  • #59,900
  • Jan 22, 2008 1:02pm Jan 22, 2008 1:02pm
Quoting quecee5
I'll have more confirmation in a few, but right now based on what I'm seeing in the charts, we have a double top on 4hr @ 212.50 that has proven to be tough resistance and yes weekly pivot comes in @ 209.80's which it was just rejected. . .

I'm now waiting on a 30 min ZL Stoch to cross over to confirm (early signal for mr) that the downtrend has continued. . . Also, my ZL MACD is starting to roll over on 30 min. A close below 30 gann hi/lo another early signal for me that downtrend has continued. Will post a chart shortly. . .

I'm short all over again from 208 all the way up to 209.60

Sell all rallies in a down trend, wait for charts to tell u when its time to buy long term. . . Fundamentally, nothing has changed so. . .

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