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FED cuts 75 just now!!!

  • #21
  • Jan 22, 2008 7:34am Jan 22, 2008 7:34am
Quoting RichD
Of course the interest rate differential is now hugely unfavourable for the carry trade right? So there will be a huge drop in USDJPY yes ....I am right arent I?... After all thats what I was always told.
You would think, but it blasted up 50 pips on the news. Almost back to where it started now though. My concern in this environment is that banks pull their liquidity. The market was utterly silent for a while after the big move. That is very unusual. That tells me banks pulled the plug, at least for the moment. Watch yourselves today.
  • #22
  • Jan 22, 2008 7:39am Jan 22, 2008 7:39am
Quoting melpheos
Rate in Jp = .75% Rate in US 4%... Carry trade is still here for a long time...
That's 0.50% in Japan and now 3.5% here in the US. Next week could see the US rate head down to 3%. Carry trade is still here b/c the USD is becoming a funding currency..
  • #23
  • Jan 22, 2008 7:40am Jan 22, 2008 7:40am
lol...

what a day what a day... thanx god my account is strong and did not blow my account... Just gave every pip i earned today to eurusd.. back to 0 now...

short from 1.4471 still holding it until 1.4621... worst case scenario i will close the day with -20 pips

which i can definitely live with... I will wait and see if eurusd will go lower...
  • #24
  • Jan 22, 2008 7:40am Jan 22, 2008 7:40am
Quoting Pip Hunter E
I use Trade The News, and they've been talking all morning about rumors of a combined intervention. So far only U.S. did something. Close your positions and sit on your hands today is my thinking lol.
i should have subscribed to Trade The News after my trial...

Lesson well learned.. Now i will subscribe.
  • #25
  • Jan 22, 2008 7:43am Jan 22, 2008 7:43am
Quoting Trader KGB
That's 0.50% in Japan and now 3.5% here in the US. Next week could see the US rate head down to 3%. Carry trade is still here b/c the USD is becoming a funding currency..
Doh, now i know why i was losing all my $Yen trade ^^... My figures were old it seems...
  • #26
  • Jan 22, 2008 7:53am Jan 22, 2008 7:53am
Even if you don't trade news, you need a good way to be aware of it (and no I don't work for TTN, I'm just a fanboy, heh).
  • #27
  • Jan 22, 2008 7:59am Jan 22, 2008 7:59am
Wow, thanks FED! That was just my best trade ever!

http://www.xaron.net/dl/fx/2008/intr...usd_220108.png

I've used a leverage of 15:1. Usually I don't use such high leverages, but wow.

Regards - Xaron
  • #28
  • Jan 22, 2008 8:05am Jan 22, 2008 8:05am
Quoting VishalJ
You're kidding mate? There have been rumors floating around since London opening.. why do you think GJ, GU have shot up since then?

I was ready this time.. *phew*
Where do you hear/read these "rumors"?
  • #29
  • Jan 22, 2008 8:07am Jan 22, 2008 8:07am
May been somewhat of a surprise. But just like any other news release that has already been factored in we got a spike and of course after the rally the price has retraced right back to were it started. I am speaking of GBP/USD. Plus after all the pound was due for a but of a retrace after a nice down move. Now the question is, is there more of a down move or will the retracement go a little deeper. Remember traders are also aware that the pound may be cutting rates also.
  • #30
  • Jan 22, 2008 8:10am Jan 22, 2008 8:10am
Is there more we are not aware of?

From BBC.com:
Quote
The last two such surprise cuts were on 17 September 2001, shortly after the attacks of 11 September, and on 3 January 2001, in the wake of the dotcom bust.

The last time the Fed cut rates as much as three-quarters of a percentage point was in August 1982, almost 26 years ago.
Just trying to make some dollars and sense...
  • #31
  • Jan 22, 2008 8:12am Jan 22, 2008 8:12am
Quoting Xaron
I've used a leverage of 15:1. Usually I don't use such high leverages, but wow.
You set a good example. Sometimes I get the feeling half this forum is at 400:1...
  • #32
  • Jan 22, 2008 8:14am Jan 22, 2008 8:14am
Quoting blueruby
Where do you hear/read these "rumors"?

Well I read about the rumour on a football forum at 10:30 GMT this morning. These rumours do pop up in the strangest places
  • #33
  • Jan 22, 2008 8:20am Jan 22, 2008 8:20am
Quoting Trader KGB
You set a good example. Sometimes I get the feeling half this forum is at 400:1...
Thanks. But that's one of the lessions to learn. I'm glad that Oanda only offers up to 50:1.
  • #34
  • Jan 22, 2008 8:42am Jan 22, 2008 8:42am
Quoting Trader KGB
You set a good example. Sometimes I get the feeling half this forum is at 400:1...
lol 15:1 is too high for my taste
  • #35
  • Jan 22, 2008 9:29am Jan 22, 2008 9:29am
Quoting Trader KGB
You set a good example. Sometimes I get the feeling half this forum is at 400:1...
Hmm, i am half of them and read my earlier post. Account blown.
  • #36
  • Jan 22, 2008 9:33am Jan 22, 2008 9:33am
in my opinion, europe is diggesting usa. they are commited to be the new super world center.

check out, europe not going to follow usa actions but usa is bailing out also europe.

ECB is owning FED right now, USD is burned.
today euro will get the needed boost to be the new world reference currency.

its sad, but its also the truth, where do you think countries like china or japan are
going to put their invests????
the rate differential is going to be fast worse for usd...

anyway, as a forex trader, right now net short usd/chf, long eu, ej...
  • #37
  • Jan 22, 2008 9:40am Jan 22, 2008 9:40am
i think we will see euro cuts fairly soon, I have thought the euro is overvalued for quite a while.
  • #38
  • Jan 22, 2008 9:45am Jan 22, 2008 9:45am
Quoting peterM
i think we will see euro cuts fairly soon, I have thought the euro is overvalued for quite a while.
also thought this, but for what reason have we always seen that when euro start losing value, some trichet accolade start making bullish comments?

very suspicious, just note what happened yesterday.

is like they are not allowing investors to lose confidence on euro system.
my opinion.
  • #39
  • Jan 22, 2008 9:48am Jan 22, 2008 9:48am
It seems Eurozone governments (France for sure) aren't thrilled about the strong Euro.

I'm not sure how many people realize that a weak USD is not necessarily bad at all for the U.S. U.S. exports are more competitive (read: cheaper), and really only U.S. importers are hurt considerably by this, such as Wal Mart. I suppose a case could be made that a big exporter with international presence could also be hurt, such as a Microsoft. Something like a Microsoft would be more hard to call, IMO.
  • #40
  • Jan 22, 2008 10:03am Jan 22, 2008 10:03am
about ECB interest cut is rasional..
coz trichet mentioned about it before..
maybe it's gonna happen later...
but for noe the trend is bull for EU
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