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the key to the mint

  • #1,861
  • Jan 21, 2008 11:18am Jan 21, 2008 11:18am
you know i have been browsing around the various trading systems on this forum a new one pops up every day guys go to one to the next and on and on and on as soon as a loss appears they drop it like a hot potatoe and look for something else they never do any real backtesting they look what happened maybe in a month or three and say its the best thing since slice bread. the reason all these new systems are appearing is we are in a trending market everything works from a simple ema cross to whatever but will the systems hold up when market consolidates. to me these guys they either trade demos or micromini lots just for action like a gambler. so where are you in the search for a system. have you got holy grailitis a very contagous disease. this method i trade in NOT a holy grail there is none except money management of a consistent system of at least 60% so if you are looking for 80% like some claim good luck they dont exist in my opinion
  • #1,862
  • Jan 21, 2008 12:05pm Jan 21, 2008 12:05pm
You are so right Harold. It takes work to find, backtest, and implement a system. Then maintain the discipline and dedication through time to see the fruit of your labor. Some just want the quick easy fix. Little or no effort and MAXIMUM profit quickly. The big boys know that this never happens. They make millions by trading consistently and using multiple lots and getting small gains. It is all numbers. Once you understand the numbers and consistently make even a little more than you lose you begin building wealth.

Your system is a proven winner. We just have to be patient, dedicated, disciplined and consistent. The winnings will grow over time.

Thanks again Harold for an awesome system.

PipPrince
(Glen)
  • #1,863
  • Jan 21, 2008 12:06pm Jan 21, 2008 12:06pm
Quoting harold4x
anyone in this gbpusd trade?
Took gbp/chf at 2am est, entered @ 2.1535 exited @ 2.1505 for +30. Did not take the gbp/usd because my 1 hour chart shows the rsi below 50 since Jan 18/08.
  • #1,864
  • Jan 21, 2008 12:12pm Jan 21, 2008 12:12pm
whats wrong with the rsi being below 50 on gbpusd since its a short signal? the signal happened at 1400gmt i had already made my 30 on the same trade as you but this was a valid signal as stoc crossed back down at 1400
  • #1,865
  • Jan 21, 2008 12:20pm Jan 21, 2008 12:20pm
Quoting harold4x
whats wrong with the rsi being below 50 on gbpusd since its a short signal? the signal happened at 1400gmt i had already made my 30 on the same trade as you but this was a valid signal as stoc crossed back down at 1400
As well as the rsi being below 50 since Jan 18, there has been a 200+ pips loss since that time. I made that decision because of the continuous pip loss since that time and rsi?

Your comments please, Harold.
  • #1,866
  • Jan 21, 2008 12:46pm Jan 21, 2008 12:46pm
That's a pretty good post, Harold. I find no real edge in any TA system... sometimes they are lucky (as you said, with trending markets most do well) and sometimes they cough up blood.

I'd really like to move beyond the realm of TA into external fundamentals (interest rates and COTS) and build a neural net around them. TA is, for lack of a better word, flaky.

Quoting harold4x
you know i have been browsing around the various trading systems on this forum a new one pops up every day guys go to one to the next and on and on and on as soon as a loss appears they drop it like a hot potatoe and look for something else they never do any real backtesting they look what happened maybe in a month or three and say its the best thing since slice bread. the reason all these new systems are appearing is we are in a trending market everything works from a simple ema cross to whatever but will the systems hold up when market consolidates. to me these guys they either trade demos or micromini lots just for action like a gambler. so where are you in the search for a system. have you got holy grailitis a very contagous disease. this method i trade in NOT a holy grail there is none except money management of a consistent system of at least 60% so if you are looking for 80% like some claim good luck they dont exist in my opinion
  • #1,867
  • Jan 21, 2008 12:52pm Jan 21, 2008 12:52pm
every day is a new day as you know the currency market trends more than any other market if signal came from today where price dropped 150 pips then i would stay out till we get a correction and then a signal today price dropped from 9582 to a low of 9479 then came back to 9528 then drifted lower then came back then stoc turned over and signal came not the greatest of signals but one none the less if you felt uncomfortable about it then you did the right thing when in doubt STAY OUT
  • #1,868
  • Jan 21, 2008 12:57pm Jan 21, 2008 12:57pm
hi tdion well i wouldnt sat ta is bad it all depends on what we call technical analasis since i see it as a numbers game with price alogrithims etc to me thats ta does it work all the time NO nothing works all the time except GOD! but if you can find so sort of ta that will produce nicely in trending markets and still show profit in non trending conditions to give an overall win/loss of at least 60% that coupled with mm can give you a living i dont no nothing about interst or swaps or any of the fundermental i am just not that mental in econmics
  • #1,869
  • Jan 21, 2008 1:03pm Jan 21, 2008 1:03pm
Quoting harold4x
every day is a new day as you know the currency market trends more than any other market if signal came from today where price dropped 150 pips then i would stay out till we get a correction and then a signal today price dropped from 9582 to a low of 9479 then came back to 9528 then drifted lower then came back then stoc turned over and signal came not the greatest of signals but one none the less if you felt uncomfortable about it then you did the right thing when in doubt STAY OUT
Thanks, I was a little confused about the drop in pips in terms of the time frame. So, if the drop is 150+ that came today, stay out. If the drop is 150+ over the last two days or more that is not a consideration for staying out.
  • #1,870
  • Jan 21, 2008 1:10pm Jan 21, 2008 1:10pm
thats right from the high on friday of gbpjpy to the close that was 300 pips todays range was 400 pips when they trend they trend till they end just take 1 days data into consideration to determine action to take again if you dont feel comfortable with that pair look at another or just stay out that also is a trading decision. just remember that if it was a win dont beat yourself up it could have easily been a loss other than a 150 pip move drop or ob/os on hourly stoc sooner or later you have to trust in whatever method you use or why bother trading do backtests i know its tedious but if you can see past results in consolidating markets and overall the win loss is good that might be the only way to gain confidence
  • #1,871
  • Jan 21, 2008 1:20pm Jan 21, 2008 1:20pm
This is probably the best system for small guys like me I've found. I've steered well clear of tampering with it because it's so evidently perfect as it is. I find it works well for me trending in at the daily level and subtrending to the hourly. A nice mix of momentum and accessibility for someone like me looking for an income. Good work Harold!
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
  • #1,872
  • Jan 21, 2008 1:26pm Jan 21, 2008 1:26pm
welcome aboard traider hope you make some money its out there just trying to get my hands on some of it
  • #1,873
  • Jan 21, 2008 1:36pm Jan 21, 2008 1:36pm
went short @ 15:56 GMT on gbpusd and came out + 5 ... hit the SL again
not bad for a quick 5 min trade, i took it using pocket pc version while i was in a meeting.. i just love it..
- Syd [dust is my bed...]
  • #1,874
  • Jan 21, 2008 1:54pm Jan 21, 2008 1:54pm
no trades for me today guys,
will catch everyone later.
  • #1,875
  • Jan 21, 2008 2:26pm Jan 21, 2008 2:26pm
Quoting syedks
went short @ 15:56 GMT on gbpusd and came out + 5 ... hit the SL again
not bad for a quick 5 min trade, i took it using pocket pc version while i was in a meeting.. i just love it..
Hi friend, What kind of stochastic do you use with PC poket???
  • #1,876
  • Jan 21, 2008 2:55pm Jan 21, 2008 2:55pm
Quoting autaret
Hi friend, What kind of stochastic do you use with PC poket???
I used the default indicators of pocket PC version but i looked at my desktop before i left for the meeting ...
- Syd [dust is my bed...]
  • #1,877
  • Jan 21, 2008 3:54pm Jan 21, 2008 3:54pm
eurjpy, short, in 153.05, out at 152.98 + 7
gbpjpy, short, in 205.90, out at 205.82 +8

at 21GMT ...

not bad eh!!
anyone else took them?
- Syd [dust is my bed...]
  • #1,878
  • Jan 21, 2008 4:04pm Jan 21, 2008 4:04pm
syedks you have gots
  • #1,879
  • Jan 21, 2008 4:16pm Jan 21, 2008 4:16pm
Quoting harold4x
syedks you have gots
its all because of you .. thanks tons .. but funny part is that, im still in demo. planning to go live either tomorrow or otherwise next week ... what do you reckon?
- Syd [dust is my bed...]
  • #1,880
  • Jan 21, 2008 4:26pm Jan 21, 2008 4:26pm
off to bed .. see you all tomorrow...
- Syd [dust is my bed...]
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