GBP/JPY for QQE Traders!

There were a couple very tough calls today, regarding the 15 minute strategy. “False breakout” guidelines were a factor in both. If we had taken the short trade, we’d have stopped out before reaching TP at S1. But I see now that it would have been profitable if TP was set within the normal ranging area, and treated more like a scalp.

The second potential trade was a long at 23:00EST. Technically, for long trades we need price above the 1hr 100sma and the Daily 5sma at the time of the QQE60 cross, before it’s a valid signal. On my charts the candle encompassed an area of 210.31 – 210.75. Meanwhile the cross would have had to occur when price was between 210.61 and 210.75 to place it above both sma’s. This represents approximately the upper third of the candle. I wasn’t watching at the time, so I couldn’t be certain whether the QQE60 crossed during that price range or not. The odds were against it, so I passed it up. At the same time, I can also see where someone else may have decided it was valid and taken the trade.

Just like with the short, the long is producing pips but is looking indecisive. Time will tell whether it’s really a “breakout” or whether price stays within the current range.

Trending vs. Ranging

This 1H chart of the past couple weeks shows the difference between trending and ranging so well, that I couldn’t resist posting it. We had lots of valid 15 minute strategy calls during the trending phase. The QQE’s would sense and signal that the downward movement was accelerating, and the “false breakout” protectors (QQE60 cross in the wrong place relative to 1hr 100sma or Daily 5sma) weren’t an issue. Price would break though the temporary horizontal support, and continue down until it hit an area approximately equal to the diagonal trend line. By then our TP was usually hit.

We started having problems with the 15 minute strategy when price broke out of the diagonal down trend. A couple days ago when it made new lows, we took a trade that followed it well beyond the diagonal trend line. In this case price needed to do a fairly large retrace at one point, before it could continue south. During the retrace our QQE’s crossed the other direction, and most exited the trade. With 20/20 hindsight it’s easy to see that price hadn’t bottomed out yet, but we didn’t have this luxury at the time.

During the next couple days price began ranging. We’d get QQE crosses near the middle of the range in most cases. This doesn’t leave a very large area for TP, and the “false breakout” protectors started kicking in, invalidating the trades. The 1hr 100sma and the Daily 5sma (4 – 5 day averages) were in the same area of the chart as price, and this was warning us that price wasn’t really trending. It was just ranging in place. Pips could still be made, especially if the up or down signals occurred far enough from the top or bottom of the range boundaries. But if you were to follow the usual TP guidelines for a breakout, you’d be disappointed.

With 20 / 20 hindsight again, I can see there were some nice 50 pip scalping opportunities, even when price was ranging. You couldn’t call these true 15 minute strategy trades. But the QQE’s were sensing and signaling price swings like they should. This adds further credence to the idea that an effective scalping strategy is possible, using some of the elements of the 15 minute strategy. It may or may not involve moving onto the 5 minute or 1 minute chart. Hopefully we will explore this more as a group. Simply posting scalping results doesn’t help anyone, in my opinion. What would be helpful is if the technique and results were shared at the same time. Then there's room for exploration and growth.

Pips, I actually had a 15m short signal at 5 am EST this morning. I got the short signal and the qqe5 was below 50 but it turned up while the qqe60 was goingdown. I have my software setup set up so that it waits for the qqe5 to be turning down and not just necessarily below 50. If I would have gotten it even after it was at the 5sma I would have been in for a 100 pip move up. Instead I waited for qqe5 to turndown. It happened around 6 am and I rode it down for almost 100 pips..


The Beggar

Thanks for the great analysis x2 Pips C !! It was pretty tough on the QQE5 1H crosses too.

As you mentioned correctly there was money to be made from a scalping perspective. I did find the 5M TF useful. It may be a case that during ranging periods when price fluctuates +/- 50 -75 pips around 1H 100sma, Daily 5sma and Session Pivots that moving to a lower timeframe will give earlier entry opportunities, better Stops prices and some profit limits (ie., better MM). Let's work together ! Thanks.

Good! Nice to see you're making pips! Looks like others could have hopped on the short bandwagon around 10:30 - 10:45EST. But I haven't taken a real close look at that yet. Sometimes it seems like I sleep through all the good hours.

Sith,
This is what I did all week.
I only was able to trade a few hours each night at the hotel.
I used my scalp system on the M5 and it made great profits this week and very minimal losses.

M5 is great for rangy scalpin.......

kj

There are a few ways I like to get in. If the qq60 is still going down after I get out. I will wait for the qqe5 to turn back down to hop in again. You can also just pyramid in everytime the qqe5 turns up and turns down, as long as it does not cross up giving an early warning that the qqe60 may also be ready to turn.. Sometimes I also will see that the qqe60 crosses up but the price is still below the level stop. So I will hop in again once the qqe60 turns down again


The beggar

Hmm . . . I can remember doing that once or twice, myself. Thanks for sharing. Let's learn and grow together, as a group!

A U.K. housing data release is due at 19:01 (7:01PM) EST today. I’ll use it as an example for some random thoughts about news trading, even though the release is considered “medium impact”.

There are several good reasons for not having open trades during news. Pre-news swings are common, and they can go either direction. Stop losses can be hit even if you are on the right side of the trade. Even if the SL isn’t hit, the price swings might spook you and cause you to close it out. Or they might just mess with the indicators you’re using, and technically invalidate a trade that was destined for profit. Or you might simply be on the wrong side of the news, and lose that way.

Aggressive traders could try being on the right side of the news. For instance they could make the logical deduction that since this particular release is housing related, and the U.K. is having housing woes, that the news will be negative. But to a certain extent this assumption is probably already priced in. Plus there are the added burdens of estimating the amount of pips the trade would be good for, and keeping a reasonable stop loss. If it becomes obvious that the news is against you, it can also be difficult to exit the trade quickly, since some brokers are busy filling many trades at this time. So this type of strategy is rightly considered a high risk trade with the potential for high reward. Technical traders usually put money in the pockets of experienced fundamental traders this way.

Another option is to take a trade right after the news release. You can decide ahead of time how you will trade if the results are x, y, or z. Then when FF shows the numbers you can implement your plan, whether that means staying out, going long, or going short. Some people specialize in this type of trading. One of the inherent problems with this trading plan is having the fundamental market knowledge of how price will react under different release scenarios. Even if you overcome this, there’s the potential problem of orders not always getting filled immediately, and / or increased broker spreads during this volatile period.

I’ve noticed that another option is to let the initial price movement slow down and stop, then trade the opposite direction on the retrace. This isn’t a 100% “sure thing”. But if you monitor price after multiple news releases, or have the ability to check historic releases, you’ll notice there is almost always a healthy retrace within an hour. A thirty to fifty percent retrace is common.

Still another option is to follow your indicators any way they lead, whether it’s before, during, or after the news release. There definitely are times when they correctly indicate the way things will go, based on trades being made in one direction of the other. None of our QQE strategies specifically mention avoiding trades during the news, so you wouldn’t be going against any guidelines unless they’re your own.

Which approach is best? It seems to me this depends on the individual trader, their tolerance for risk, trading strategy, knowledge and experience. The safest approach is to avoid these time periods, especially “high impact” releases. The riskiest is trying to guess the results ahead of time, unless you’re an experienced fundamental trader. Technical traders might want to think about this, if they haven’t already, and come up with personal guidelines suited for them.

It looks like a "15 minute strategy" short trade has begun.

15min QQE is set at 50
1hr is set at 1
4 hr is set at 5

What do I set the QQE at for the 30 min?

Thanks,
Deb

Sorry. I'm not sure what your trading strategy is, so it's hard to answer your question. I have the 15min QQE's set for 5 and 60. The rest of the charts all use 5.

http://www.pnwenterprises.com/auslan...instrategy.htm

I'll be looking for price to follow this downward channel to the Asian daily pivot S1 support at 207.78.

I had branched off aslo's charts and was still using the QQE's. His new 15 min strategy looks good . There is something else I have noticed. When the 100sma has been in the middle of a line of candles for a long time - you know when the market is dead and you know there is going to be a report. Well I have been using the QQE60 to tell me what direction the report is going to go in. I just remove the SL right before the report in case they do sweep - hold my breath and so far I havn't missed!
It is using all the same indicators- just differently.

Thanks for the new 15 min. info.
Deb

It looks like sup 1 has been hit and time to take some profits. Sup 2 is over a hundred pips away. I wonder if it will get there. Maybe not before some kind of retracement. If the qqe 60 crosses up and then crosses back down while the price is still below the level stop it just might get there. Any thoughts????



The beggar

Well I hope everyone's TP was hit. Now maybe someone else can figure out what we should do about the Frankfurt / London sessions.

One thought is there's still the "mid-level" support around 207.11. With a retrace, that could make a nice target.

We'll also have new pivots in less than an hour . . .

Hey pip I am not using the same software you guys are using. I programmed the indicators into my software. I didn't bother changing the standard pivot points to match different sessions. I am not exactly sure what times the code in VT is using the calulate the data. At 3 am when the next session starts. Should I be calculating the data from the 24 hours leading up to that point. If so, I can get it done.


The Beggar

The QQE's are looking borderline oversold, which suggests a possible retrace. Another thing I see is that the 15min QQE5 and QQE60 could cross upward if there's a very large retrace. We also have some volatile times coming up shortly. Not sure if we'll make new lows today or not . . . nothing would surprise me at this point . . .

Correct. 24 hours leading up to the start of a session. 03:00 EST for London, 08:00 EST for NY, and 19:00 EST for Asian.