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Martingale Baggio Method

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 18, 2008 10:08am Jan 18, 2008 10:08am
Hello,

I have a sort of Martingale system, I have back tested, manually and this system seems pretty good and has not failed, from Nov 2007 to date only pair I have looked at is USD-JPY. Might work on other pairs with low spread.

If you are looking to make millions, then this is not the system that you would look at, unless you have millions

TF
---------
15min


Rules:
----------
At 7am GTM, go in the direction of the 6:45am candle with, i.e 0.01 lot, if you get stopped out, then X 4 your lot (0.04 lot) and go in the direction that you have been stopped out, if you get stopped out again, then go in the direction you have been stopped out X 4 for yout lot (0.16) until you hit profit and then close shop and be done for the day.

TP/SL based on pairs with LOW spread.

TP
----------
10 not including spread


SL
----------
10 including spread

Comments Welcome, will attach charts and spread sheet which has come from FXTradePro, it is freely available to use.
  • #2
  • Jan 18, 2008 10:09am Jan 18, 2008 10:09am
See MM here...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: martingale.JPG Size: 68 KB
  • #3
  • Jan 18, 2008 10:17am Jan 18, 2008 10:17am
If you look at the rea line here, you would enter after that candle closes.

1. Go long, then you would be stopped and then you would reverse and go short.

2. You would get stopped out going short.

3. Reverse and go long and you would win 10 pips and £/$11-00 for the day.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example.JPG Size: 34 KB
  • #4
  • Jan 18, 2008 10:18am Jan 18, 2008 10:18am
Actually $/£6-00

Quoting guess121
If you look at the rea line here, you would enter after that candle closes.

1. Go long, then you would be stopped and then you would reverse and go short.

2. You would get stopped out going short.

3. Reverse and go long and you would win 10 pips and £/$11-00 for the day.
  • #5
  • Jan 18, 2008 11:28am Jan 18, 2008 11:28am
On current MM from above:

$/£1 profit on first trade.

16th Jan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 16th Jan.JPG Size: 42 KB
  • #6
  • Jan 18, 2008 11:36am Jan 18, 2008 11:36am
15 min TF = short.

Just checking entries on 5 min TF

1. Short - Might have got stopped out first entry,depending on broker + spread
2. Long - Stopped out.
3. Short - TP HIT

P/L = £/$6-00

Based on the above calculations.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15th Jan.JPG Size: 36 KB
  • #7
  • Jan 18, 2008 11:39am Jan 18, 2008 11:39am
15 min TF

1. Short entered.

TP 10 hit

P/L = £1/$1

Based on MM from above.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 14th jan.JPG Size: 42 KB
  • #8
  • Jan 18, 2008 11:49am Jan 18, 2008 11:49am
17th Jan.

15 min TF long

1. Long stopped. - red line
2. Short stopped - 2nd red line
3. Long - 10 pip TP hit

P/L = £/$6-00
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 17th jan.JPG Size: 36 KB
  • #9
  • Jan 18, 2008 11:53am Jan 18, 2008 11:53am
So for this week.

P/L = £/$26-00

Backtest yourself and have a look and let me know the number of winning trades against lost trades, max trades would be 5/6, though at the end you'll profit, most will get hit around 3/4 or before.

If someone can code an EA for this, this would be great!

Would do the prefect job!
  • #10
  • Jan 18, 2008 12:14pm Jan 18, 2008 12:14pm
How do yo realize the backtesting? Do you study every day since nov-2007?
how much succesfull trades you get in porcentage?
thanks
  • #11
  • Jan 18, 2008 12:35pm Jan 18, 2008 12:35pm
Quoting guess121
Hello,

I have a sort of Martingale system, I have back tested, manually and this system seems pretty good and has not failed, from Nov 2007 to date only pair I have looked at is USD-JPY. Might work on other pairs with low spread.

If you are looking to make millions, then this is not the system that you would look at, unless you have millions

TF
---------
15min


Rules:
----------
At 7am GTM, go in the direction of the 6:45am candle with, i.e 0.01 lot, if you get stopped out, then X 4 your lot (0.04 lot) and go in the direction that you have been stopped out, if you get stopped out again, then go in the direction you have been stopped out X 4 for yout lot (0.16) until you hit profit and then close shop and be done for the day.

TP/SL based on pairs with LOW spread.

TP
----------
10 not including spread


SL
----------
10 including spread

Comments Welcome, will attach charts and spread sheet which has come from FXTradePro, it is freely available to use.
It's a loser.
Martingales are one of the biggest mistakes of new traders. There is a thread like this every week or so.
Martingales do not work, in the long run. They are based upon a logical fallacy. They were mathematically debunked centuries ago.
  • #12
  • Jan 18, 2008 1:09pm Jan 18, 2008 1:09pm
fair play billbss

I have back tested this on a ranging day and it still pulls in.

if you have tight SL and TP and 1/1 ratio and high volume and it being volatile... i.e when the market opens... then why not... give me a random day to pick and I'll do a back test on the day...

Quoting billbss
It's a loser.
Martingales are one of the biggest mistakes of new traders. There is a thread like this every week or so.
Martingales do not work, in the long run. They are based upon a logical fallacy. They were mathematically debunked centuries ago.
  • #13
  • Jan 18, 2008 4:27pm Jan 18, 2008 4:27pm
yes I did...

does not take long...

Quoting neurus
How do yo realize the backtesting? Do you study every day since nov-2007?
how much succesfull trades you get in porcentage?
thanks
  • #14
  • Jan 21, 2008 6:43am Jan 21, 2008 6:43am
oh man..please...this is VERY DANGEROUS.
Look at more about "Kelly criteria" money managment...has risk, but i think
that is less... just a clue

Best Regards,
Marcelo Marques
  • #15
  • Jan 23, 2008 5:36pm Jan 23, 2008 5:36pm
Hi guess121:
I've attached a .zip file with 3 backtest reports on GBPUSD pair of an EA that uses a martingale as money management, from 06/20/2006 to 01/23/2008.

One of them was tested buying and selling at the same time (test).
The second one was tested only buying. And the third only selling. I think this tests what happen with some trades skipped when a martingale is open in the opposite direction.

I tested also the following pairs: EURJPY, EURUSD, CHFJPY, USDJPY & USDCHF, with good results (70% to 120% annual profit).

The best one was GBPUSD.

Since 01/02/2008 i am foward testing the EA online, until next month, when i'm going to get in with real money if the results are as expected.

Perhaps 100% annual is too low for someone. But it's nice for me.

Warning: I'm a newie trader (since 10/20/2006) that only lose money.

I just post this to talk serious about martingale as a money management style.

Rama
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Martingale.zip   77 KB | 2,033 downloads
  • #16
  • Edited 8:41pm Jan 26, 2008 8:37pm | Edited 8:41pm
Quoting Rama
Hi guess121:
I've attached a .zip file with 3 backtest reports on GBPUSD pair of an EA that uses a martingale as money management, from 06/20/2006 to 01/23/2008.

One of them was tested buying and selling at the same time (test).
The second one was tested only buying. And the third only selling. I think this tests what happen with some trades skipped when a martingale is open in the opposite direction.

I tested also the following pairs: EURJPY, EURUSD, CHFJPY, USDJPY & USDCHF, with good results (70% to 120% annual profit).

The best one was GBPUSD.

Since 01/02/2008 i am foward testing the EA online, until next month, when i'm going to get in with real money if the results are as expected.

Perhaps 100% annual is too low for someone. But it's nice for me.

Warning: I'm a newie trader (since 10/20/2006) that only lose money.

I just post this to talk serious about martingale as a money management style.

Rama

Hey Rama, how r u?

Great results with this EA. I´m testing some martingale systems too. Can u share this ea that u send the statment?

Regards!
Numeral
  • #17
  • Jan 26, 2008 10:47pm Jan 26, 2008 10:47pm
Quoting guess121

Rules:
----------
At 7am GTM, go in the direction of the 6:45am candle with, i.e 0.01 lot, if you get stopped out, then X 4 your lot (0.04 lot) and go in the direction that you have been stopped out, if you get stopped out again, then go in the direction you have been stopped out X 4 for yout lot (0.16) until you hit profit and then close shop and be done for the day.
Martingale typically results in a doubling down of the amount just lost. But it looks like you're quadrupling down after each loss.

I think there's a fair chance that may not work out in the long haul.
  • #18
  • Jan 27, 2008 10:58am Jan 27, 2008 10:58am
woo, I saw your threads everywhere about the same method and request for the programmer to solve it.

Please take a look on
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=61986

To people who think Martingale do not work in the long run. I agree Martingale may kill people in one day. Yet I feel MM and downside multiplier is good way to solve it.
FxTraderPro doing well in Lucky 7 Setup in this aspect.

Feel Free to have comment here
  • #19
  • Jan 28, 2008 5:40pm Jan 28, 2008 5:40pm
Quoting Numeral
Hey Rama, how r u?

Great results with this EA. I´m testing some martingale systems too. Can u share this ea that u send the statment?

Regards!
Numeral
Hi Numeral,
I'm posting the ea improved and tested on GBPUSD pair on larger time period (06/01/2004 - 01/28/2008), downloaded from Alpari.

You need to install AllOrdersControl.mq4 in the include folder.

Soon i'm going to test USDCHF and EURJPY on the same time period.

I'm also posting 3 reports on GBPUSD:
1. The EA buy & sell. The EA manage only one type of trades at a time. If there is a buy order open and a sell signal appears, it is ignored.
2. Only buy. To see what happen with each buy signal.
3. Only sell. Idem 2.

I'm foward testing it in the same pair in two different charts. One only buy, the other only sell.

They show more trades working separately on different charts, than the buy & sell on the same chart. I think this can improve profits, and you optimize margin usage.

Lets tests and see.

Regards.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 AllOrdersControl.mq4   4 KB | 1,062 downloads
File Type: mq4 MA Martingale v2.1.mq4   11 KB | 1,041 downloads
File Type: zip Martingale Reports GBPUSD.zip   139 KB | 776 downloads
  • #20
  • Jan 29, 2008 1:39am Jan 29, 2008 1:39am
Don't work for me http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
Both in Expert folder ?
Is't right ?
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