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Scalping/Trading the TrendWay

  • #21
  • Jan 17, 2008 12:50pm Jan 17, 2008 12:50pm
I must admit that it does have a high accuracy rate if your patient enough...Ive caught some nice 400 pip moves with this method, obviously the higher the timeframe the more the price projection and lenght of time for return as mentioned earlier. I find this method is great with any currency on a 1hr or 4hr tf

Right now im looking at a double top with a upward tl and a regular bearish divergence for the gbp/jpy...if price breaks below the tl im projecting a 297 pip downtrend

Anybody see this?
  • #22
  • Jan 17, 2008 12:50pm Jan 17, 2008 12:50pm
can I detemine H/L points ( for trend line) with fractal indicator?
Persian Gulf forever
  • #23
  • Jan 17, 2008 12:50pm Jan 17, 2008 12:50pm
p.s. that signal is I just mentioned is on the 30min tf
  • #24
  • Jan 17, 2008 1:38pm Jan 17, 2008 1:38pm
Quoting parsfx
can I detemine H/L points ( for trend line) with fractal indicator?
The fractal indicator plots the H/L points just as well... and yes you could use that.

GF
  • #25
  • Jan 17, 2008 2:33pm Jan 17, 2008 2:33pm
the price action is pressing hard on the tl I mentioned earler, be prepared for after the break (price opens below the trendline)
  • #26
  • Jan 18, 2008 4:03am Jan 18, 2008 4:03am
Hi Everyone,

A few questions were raised on drawing the high/low points and I've attached an indicator that will mark those H/L points for you if you're confused on that. I've included the code file and the executable file. Just insert the files into your /experts/indicators folder.

The attached chart shows what the indicator looks like. There is one parameter you can use. If you set the "DrawMinorpts" to 0 (zero), it will only draw the major highs/lows. If you set it to 1 (one) it will draw all relative high/low points. The chart only shows it with the major highs/lows.

Regarding the chart, I drew the trend lines for most of the chart. I also added the entry points marked by the shaded areas. If you will notice, the price continues in the direction that it was headed at the trend break for a ways in every case. This is why this is so accurate. Price action follows the dominant trend. Once a trend breaks, it follows the next trend until that is broken. So, if you simply get in at the trend breaks, the price will nearly always continue in that direction for a bit. Some trends are stronger than others. From left to right, the second smaller shaded area shows a break, but the new down trend does not last long because that trend is a minor one compared to the much larger up trend going on in this chart during this area.

Again exits are either made when you hit your desired profit level or when the trend you are following with your trade is broken which is also, simutaneously a new entry point.

When you draw your trend lines, don't use the arrows from the indicator, but use the end of the bar as the base of your line.

Hope that helps.

GF
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trendsamples.gif Size: 27 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 HighLow Points.ex4   7 KB | 1,100 downloads
File Type: mq4 HighLow Points.mq4   3 KB | 1,331 downloads
  • #27
  • Jan 18, 2008 7:56am Jan 18, 2008 7:56am
I know it's early here, but I've taken 7 trades, all in the direction of the trend, using TL breaks and won on 6 of them for a total net of +93 pips thus far.

One robin doesn't make a Spring, and 7 trades aren't statistically significant yet, but this really looks good.
"I know how hard it is for you to put food on your family." George W. Bush
  • #28
  • Jan 18, 2008 8:04am Jan 18, 2008 8:04am
Hello Friend,

What you think make an EA? How long you are using this TS?

Kind regards,

Marcelo Marques
  • #29
  • Jan 18, 2008 8:13am Jan 18, 2008 8:13am
hey mate which pair's do you trade in with this method?

BK
  • #30
  • Jan 18, 2008 9:23am Jan 18, 2008 9:23am
Quoting bksujal
hey mate which pair's do you trade in with this method?

BK
The method is valid for any pair... its the great thing about it. You can use it on whatever pair you like. My favorites are the ??/JPY pairs, but I've used it on just about everything.

GF
  • #31
  • Jan 18, 2008 9:27am Jan 18, 2008 9:27am
Quoting marcelom
Hello Friend,

What you think make an EA? How long you are using this TS?

Kind regards,

Marcelo Marques
Actually, I am working on an EA for it, but I'm having some difficulty at this time getting the computer to recognize the proper trend lines most of the time. Although, preliminary results are looking promising. I ran the EA on a back test for 2007 data and it did come up with a yearly 60% return on money on the Eur/Jpy. And while that may seem great, it doesn't do as well on all pairs and at the same time when I tested it on 2006 data... it went broke. So, I'm not confident that I have it ready to make public yet.

I'll let everyone know when I have something ready.

Marci
  • #32
  • Jan 18, 2008 9:28am Jan 18, 2008 9:28am
Quoting MarcoW
I know it's early here, but I've taken 7 trades, all in the direction of the trend, using TL breaks and won on 6 of them for a total net of +93 pips thus far.

One robin doesn't make a Spring, and 7 trades aren't statistically significant yet, but this really looks good.
Glad to know that its working well for you.

GF
  • #33
  • Jan 18, 2008 10:13am Jan 18, 2008 10:13am
Marci..

I've yet, regardless of method or strategy used, ever found an EA that really worked and that you could comfortably rely on.

Seems likes there is no substitute for human judgment, as flawed as it can be, because of the vagaries associated with this market.

thanks for sharing all this with us.
"I know how hard it is for you to put food on your family." George W. Bush
  • #34
  • Jan 19, 2008 5:37pm Jan 19, 2008 5:37pm
Quoting MarcoW
Marci..

I've yet, regardless of method or strategy used, ever found an EA that really worked and that you could comfortably rely on.

Seems likes there is no substitute for human judgment, as flawed as it can be, because of the vagaries associated with this market.

thanks for sharing all this with us.
Have you traded breaks only or bounces as well?
Trax Tibidax Tibidox...
  • #35
  • Jan 19, 2008 6:40pm Jan 19, 2008 6:40pm
Quoting MarcoW
Marci..

I've yet, regardless of method or strategy used, ever found an EA that really worked and that you could comfortably rely on.

Seems likes there is no substitute for human judgment, as flawed as it can be, because of the vagaries associated with this market.

thanks for sharing all this with us.
You obviously didnŽt pay attention to the metaquotes competiton..

IŽll think of an EA for this. Though it is tricky..
"Hoe ur pips mate?" fxcarllos
  • #36
  • Jan 20, 2008 1:10am Jan 20, 2008 1:10am
I've tried testing a method like this but ended up with a lot of false breakouts and had inconsistent results. Any advice to avoid false breakouts? For example, it may appear to break out but ends up just consolidating sideways and then continuing in the same direction as before - oposite of my position, and I get stopped out.
  • #37
  • Jan 20, 2008 1:42am Jan 20, 2008 1:42am
Quoting MarcoW
Marci..

I've yet, regardless of method or strategy used, ever found an EA that really worked and that you could comfortably rely on.

Seems likes there is no substitute for human judgment, as flawed as it can be, because of the vagaries associated with this market.

thanks for sharing all this with us.
Although manual trading can often exceed an EA you can rarely trade with consistency and thats the key. Im talking precision here like absolute money man to 0.1 lots or whatever you broker allows to 99 lots then never think oh i just move my stop a tad more unless it in the rules. For scalping you cant beat an EA it will sit up 24 hours a day 5 days a week looking for those 20 pips or so and there is no one can do that.

I been following MT since MT3 days and see just how far this has all progressed. The last 2 years with metaquotes contest has been a godsend to see really what works and what dont. Prior to that we had a world full of dodgy brokers. I honestly feel many have cleaned up their act. They know many wont hang around no more when there is such a choice. There must be some 200 MT4 brokers now and only a few years ago about a dozen not so squeaky clean outfits. Spreads have come down a lot and stability has increased. Trade times are now very fast on MT4 with slippage and requotes getting less.

So don't let old thoughts get in the way of advancing technology. Bear in mind some 25% of all World Trade is now fully automated and that number is increasing all the time although professional systems use ECN and not retail MT4.

The metaquotes contest has proven that EA's can and do work however no one in their right mind will post a working EA in a public forum. Ask Mr Better to sell his EA he wont!! Making EA take time effort blood sweat and tears but the results pay off in the end as now for the last 2 years i am 95% confident in my EA trading live. Im not going to quote details but we are talking many hundreds % per year account growth. The 5% is due to my PC could just die which is why i trade using Linux for stability and that is backed up on another server too switched on 24 hours a day. Plus i trade with two brokers. The other risk if the cable ISP crashes.

So yep its more hardware but what i get back in return cant be measured.

1) my life is back im not bound to the screen watching years roll past.

2) sleep ! I sleep like a baby LOL
  • #38
  • Jan 20, 2008 10:40am Jan 20, 2008 10:40am
Quoting Bolt
Although manual trading can often exceed an EA you can rarely trade with consistency and thats the key. Im talking precision here like absolute money man to 0.1 lots or whatever you broker allows to 99 lots then never think oh i just move my stop a tad more unless it in the rules. For scalping you cant beat an EA it will sit up 24 hours a day 5 days a week looking for those 20 pips or so and there is no one can do that.

I been following MT since MT3 days and see just how far this has all progressed. The last 2 years with metaquotes contest has been a godsend to see really what works and what dont. Prior to that we had a world full of dodgy brokers. I honestly feel many have cleaned up their act. They know many wont hang around no more when there is such a choice. There must be some 200 MT4 brokers now and only a few years ago about a dozen not so squeaky clean outfits. Spreads have come down a lot and stability has increased. Trade times are now very fast on MT4 with slippage and requotes getting less.

So don't let old thoughts get in the way of advancing technology. Bear in mind some 25% of all World Trade is now fully automated and that number is increasing all the time although professional systems use ECN and not retail MT4.

The metaquotes contest has proven that EA's can and do work however no one in their right mind will post a working EA in a public forum. Ask Mr Better to sell his EA he wont!! Making EA take time effort blood sweat and tears but the results pay off in the end as now for the last 2 years i am 95% confident in my EA trading live. Im not going to quote details but we are talking many hundreds % per year account growth. The 5% is due to my PC could just die which is why i trade using Linux for stability and that is backed up on another server too switched on 24 hours a day. Plus i trade with two brokers. The other risk if the cable ISP crashes.

So yep its more hardware but what i get back in return cant be measured.

1) my life is back im not bound to the screen watching years roll past.

2) sleep ! I sleep like a baby LOL
Bolt,

I agree with you that it is definitely possible. The work behind a successful EA though is definitely not easy. I like the problem to the original days of programming computers to play chess. The first computer programs could never come close to playing as good as a strong human player. But eventually, the technology and the software came to be that the computer bested 99% of all players and even the world champion.

Now we're looking at programs that do the same for trading. And you're right, do you think if you had that piece of software that beat the market 99% of the time you would release it... heck no. There is too much work involved and too much proprietary software knowledge.

I'm glad you have an EA that does that job well for you already. I'm working on it, but I feel comfortable with my programming skills that eventually I will have the same.

Good luck
Marci
  • #39
  • Jan 20, 2008 10:52am Jan 20, 2008 10:52am
Quoting Jared
I've tried testing a method like this but ended up with a lot of false breakouts and had inconsistent results. Any advice to avoid false breakouts? For example, it may appear to break out but ends up just consolidating sideways and then continuing in the same direction as before - oposite of my position, and I get stopped out.
You still have to follow the direction of the major trend... if you are trading on the 5M chart, look at the what direction the trend is going on the 15 or 30m chart and only trade that direction. If you can manage to catch the moment when the higher timeframes change direction as well, your trades will catch even more pips.

GF
  • #40
  • Jan 20, 2008 11:01am Jan 20, 2008 11:01am
A INDICATOR FOR TREND LINE:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...63#post1811163
I think, is very usefull for this Post.
Persian Gulf forever
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