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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #901
  • Jan 17, 2008 4:26am Jan 17, 2008 4:26am
Quoting Zoran
Thanks fti. I like your approach as I understand that in some places traders are asked to leave (for the day) if they mess up.

I also tend not to count waves but the structure is clear sometimes (appears to the mind as you say), however, I got the impression that your used it quite frequently. I should also correct myself as I mentioned 5 impulsive and 3 corrective waves whereas the 5 wave structure has 3 impulsive and 2 corrective.

Unfortunately when searching for Elliot's work, the commercial aspect of Pretcher seems to have taken over. So where to get his original workings? Is this now freely available in the public domain? Is it worth reading?
Yes P writes alot about his research on Elliott's works. And mostly for the futures market library. There much other researches like bob balan for forex and ... but they sell advisories. But the essence of Elliotts works are in the those books. Elliott's research were well documented , so most of the books have accurately presented his findings. Its the wrinkles and assumptions added by students and researchers that spoils the soup. Even Elliott himself did the same in his twinlight years, only to destroy his own credibility. If you read "the major works collection", you may find much contradiction of his earliers works to his later additions.

Unfortunately I believe that there's no public domain release of his works.
Most copyrigts in the west seem to pass on to corps after the owner kicks the bucket, and continue to live in corp domain.

Worth reading? Yes for general knowledge but NO for usable value.


regards
  • #902
  • Edited 5:43am Jan 17, 2008 4:41am | Edited 5:43am
Quoting jest1081
fti, wow thats deep.
so in laymans terms. The juniors by actual have 0% exposure lah.
while the seniors do take a certain amount of risk.
and truth be told, you are the one who'll truly be running the show.
The guys are just there to help $$$ goes into the bank.

If the juniors and seniors are at the wrong side of the market, your position should have already hedged their losses, right?
But what happens if you got on the wrong side of the market? omg...how much risk would you undertake before u close your books too?

regards
jest
jest,
I cannot be on the wrong side of the market. because my delta shift forces me to hedge. It can only happen if I want to "sell the bank" and trade with ego instead of brain. The Spot outright exposures have to compliment these in staying with the trend. So normally if I was on wrong trend my delta send red flag. But I have yet to have experience that the "dance" lags behind in prompting short time frame trend promptings. And thats very profitable, if keep in step with the major (daily) trend.

Besides I have services fees income, backoffice income, marketmaking spread income, depo income, writers premiums+...... .............So losses....im..possible. But spot trading income takes the largest piece of the pie.
Benchmark is by what the yr on yr bottom line shows.

regards
  • #903
  • Jan 17, 2008 5:34am Jan 17, 2008 5:34am
Hi ALL,
Anyone trading EURUSD since yesterday?
the wild side is showing, no way to survive unless with correct money management. what a ride. am still dancing, both ways.
The GBPEURYEN crosses would be killers . Be cautious. Volatility shooting off screen.

regards
  • #904
  • Jan 17, 2008 6:01am Jan 17, 2008 6:01am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
Anyone trading EURUSD since yesterday?
the wild side is showing, no way to survive unless with correct money management. what a ride. am still dancing, both ways.
The GBPEURYEN crosses would be killers . Be cautious. Volatility shooting off screen.

regards
Hi fti
I'm trading it live and keep losing my connection which makes it even more stressful. Thank goodness my kids are at school or they would have learnt a couple of new bad words today.lol
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #905
  • Jan 17, 2008 7:22am Jan 17, 2008 7:22am
Quoting fti
jest,
I cannot be on the wrong side of the market. because my delta shift forces me to hedge. It can only happen if I want to "sell the bank" and trade with ego instead of brain. The Spot outright exposures have to compliment these in staying with the trend. So normally if I was on wrong trend my delta send red flag. But I have yet to have experience that the "dance" lags behind in prompting short time frame trend promptings. And thats very profitable, if keep in step with the major (daily) trend.

Besides I have services fees income, backoffice income, marketmaking spread income, depo income, writers premiums+...... .............So losses....im..possible. But spot trading income takes the largest piece of the pie.
Benchmark is by what the yr on yr bottom line shows.

regards
ah its starting to get clearer now. Thanks ! wow you guys must have really deep pockets man! No wonder the spot traders are easily bullied out of position.
  • #906
  • Jan 17, 2008 7:29am Jan 17, 2008 7:29am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
Anyone trading EURUSD since yesterday?
the wild side is showing, no way to survive unless with correct money management. what a ride. am still dancing, both ways.
The GBPEURYEN crosses would be killers . Be cautious. Volatility shooting off screen.

regards
Hi FTI,

Gathering statistics in demo mode trading EURUSD, in my up to 2 and a half hours 2 times a day training sessions. 8 sessions till now (one week).

Morning better than night. Best: 29,27% in 22 minutes (today NY opening). Worst: -11,28% in 80 minutes (15/01 night). Average: 2,19% per session. Standard deviation: 13,09%. Risk of a losing session estimated in 31,85% (too high to go live. MUST improve).

In the next few days I will run separate statistics for morning and night sessions. If I can achieve a positive expectancy and lower the risk of a losing session to 10 to 20% in a sufficient number of experiments I will go live in smaller lots.

Thank you very much. Your explanations have been extremely enlightening for me.
  • #907
  • Jan 17, 2008 8:00am Jan 17, 2008 8:00am
Quoting fti
Theoritically what you described is nearly correct. In the trading process, the accuracy of size snowball is not a one price hit. This is only true if such was small positions.In reality , the snowballing should be done in a short time frame and trimmed accordingly. The understanding itself is sufficient for a visual implimentation of the process.

regards
So would you enter, take some off, re-enter and so on? Also, is my True Range calculation correct? Any further hints on marrying W.Wilders table with Fib Progression/Spirals?
  • #908
  • Jan 17, 2008 8:14am Jan 17, 2008 8:14am
Quoting Northpro
Zoran,

I think the simplest way at looking at this may be the best way without muddy up the waters. KISS. At least that's how I am trying to formulate it. Although the 78.6, 88.6, 127 etc may also play a role much like 50 does, I think it confuses the overall concept more than helps. The spiral is nothing more than an exponentially increasing spiral of phi, only inverted from 61.8 to 38.2, 23.6, and 0, because everything begins at zero, so in this case all the square roots, including 50% would not apply. The true spiral is 0, 23.6, 38.2, 61.8, 100, 161.8, 261.8, 423.6....

The 23.6 comes from 61.8% of the 38.6 which is 61.8% of 61.8...

Hope this helps.

NP
When fti mentioned logarithmic spirals, I can see you saw that as one using the golden ratio. I can see that if starting at one, dividing by the golden ratio we get 0.618, 0.386. and 0.236. If we multiply we get 1.618, 2.618, 4.236 (as you indicated). Therefore, the values above, below, left and right of the epicentre correspond to these values?

fti, are you able to confirm the above interpretation with regard to your mentioning of "logarithmic spirals" ?
  • #909
  • Jan 17, 2008 9:26am Jan 17, 2008 9:26am
Quoting Zoran
When fti mentioned logarithmic spirals, I can see you saw that as one using the golden ratio. I can see that if starting at one, dividing by the golden ratio we get 0.618, 0.386. and 0.236. If we multiply we get 1.618, 2.618, 4.236 (as you indicated). Therefore, the values above, below, left and right of the epicentre correspond to these values?

fti, are you able to confirm the above interpretation with regard to your mentioning of "logarithmic spirals" ?
Zoran,

That's how I interpreted it. A year ago or so I had seen an indicator somewhere called the "golden spiral", and thats' exactly what it was. The hard part was determining its origin on the charts and where to expand the initial spiral. Anyway, I just remember noticing this spiral as a constant ratio of phi as an illustration and I am a visual person so it stuck. I do not have the indicator nor use them, but that's where I referenced it from. I also went through my library and searched hi and lo for log progression info and this was the best piece of the puzzle that fit, so I kept it simply at that.

Also, can you email me that info I asked for if you have it...thanks.

NP
  • #910
  • Jan 17, 2008 9:31am Jan 17, 2008 9:31am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
Anyone trading EURUSD since yesterday?
the wild side is showing, no way to survive unless with correct money management. what a ride. am still dancing, both ways.
The GBPEURYEN crosses would be killers . Be cautious. Volatility shooting off screen.

regards
Hi fti,

FWIW I did a modest trade this am going long for +30pips and at the same time short on the USDCHF for +40 pips. I barely stepped on the dancefloor to do it, which was OK.

By the way these numbers Zoran and Northpro and others are talking about and all the snowballing are going way over the top of my head.

I have the impression I would need a substantial amount of capital in my trading account to be in the position to use them.
I take it with a smaller trading account to start learning from Sun Tzu and learning to dance with the price movement with some risk management is sufficient,

regards
  • #911
  • Jan 17, 2008 9:36am Jan 17, 2008 9:36am
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
Anyone trading EURUSD since yesterday?
the wild side is showing, no way to survive unless with correct money management. what a ride. am still dancing, both ways.
The GBPEURYEN crosses would be killers . Be cautious. Volatility shooting off screen.

regards

Yes me too, hard to get into a rhythm with this dance, but I am still shakin' it.

np
  • #912
  • Edited 9:57am Jan 17, 2008 9:45am | Edited 9:57am
Quoting Northpro
Zoran,

That's how I interpreted it. A year ago or so I had seen an indicator somewhere called the "golden spiral", and thats' exactly what it was. The hard part was determining its origin on the charts and where to expand the initial spiral. Anyway, I just remember noticing this spiral as a constant ratio of phi as an illustration and I am a visual person so it stuck. I do not have the indicator nor use them, but that's where I referenced it from. I also went through my library and searched hi and lo for log progression info and this was the best piece of the puzzle that fit, so I kept it simply at that.

Also, can you email me that info I asked for if you have it...thanks.

NP
NP, it's in this thread, you'll find it here

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post1748941

I am attempting to get some confirmation from fti but I'm sure he knows what he is doing. Perhaps the moth needs to struggle some more!

I think we need to discuss things more and put forward our ideas.
The latest hint being his flexible skews (i.e. 1,1,2 to 4,4,8 to 20,20,40)

To an extent I can visualise it without understanding it entirely. I would like the concept to be clear though.

Ideas anyone?
  • #913
  • Jan 17, 2008 10:10am Jan 17, 2008 10:10am
Quoting Zoran
NP, it's in this thread, you'll find it here

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post1748941

I am attempting to get some confirmation from fti but I'm sure he knows what he is doing. Perhaps the moth needs to struggle some more!

I think we need to discuss things more and put forward our ideas.
The latest hint being his flexible skews (i.e. 1,1,2 to 4,4,8 to 20,20,40)

To an extent I can visualise it without understanding it entirely. I would like the concept to be clear though.

Ideas anyone?
Ah OK I thought you were referencing something different....I already saw this..Thanks

The 1,1,2......4,4,8...20,20,40 are his sequence of martingling the fibonacci sequence. 1,1,2 being the start of the sequence to the 3rd level. 1+1+2=4.
If rescue fails, continue martingale to the next level using the same sequence: 4,4,8. If that fails, fire the staff and take control yourself. Martingale the next level 1+1+2+4+4+8=20. Sequence it as 1,1,2 at the power of 20..Thats all....the next one would be 100,100,200...scary hey!

NP
  • #914
  • Jan 17, 2008 10:21am Jan 17, 2008 10:21am
Quoting DutchAngel
Hi fti
I'm trading it live and keep losing my connection which makes it even more stressful. Thank goodness my kids are at school or they would have learnt a couple of new bad words today.lol
DutchAngel,

The EURUSD is getting very volatile as expected, so stay very nimbleness is key word.

Oh about the bad words, I guess I can relate. You should hear the languages used in the dealing rooms. Was you dropping of lines due to broker or ISP?

Incidentally, a mail was sent to me regarding that issue just today.
You may like to check that out.

http://www.thirdage.com/news/article...080115-01.html

regards
  • #915
  • Jan 17, 2008 10:25am Jan 17, 2008 10:25am
Here is an interesting relationship I have found with W.Wilders recover table

If we lose 38.2% (initial loss) we need 61.8% (profit) to recover
If we lose 61.8% (initial loss) we need 161.8% (profit) to recover

I think there is a missing link there so time for a wedding?

A loss at this level would relate to a single trade (say 100 troops) rather than account (the army).
  • #916
  • Jan 17, 2008 10:31am Jan 17, 2008 10:31am
thanks a million for that note
its food for thought for everyone

austine
  • #917
  • Jan 17, 2008 10:34am Jan 17, 2008 10:34am
Quoting fti
DutchAngel,

The EURUSD is getting very volatile as expected, so stay very nimbleness is key word.

Oh about the bad words, I guess I can relate. You should hear the languages used in the dealing rooms. Was you dropping of lines due to broker or ISP?

Incidentally, a mail was sent to me regarding that issue just today.
You may like to check that out.

http://www.thirdage.com/news/article...080115-01.html

regards
Hi fti

You made my day with the link.lol. I have to do one of those four letter words right now and COOK for the family.

I closed all my eur/usd deals before fetched kids from school and managed to add 5 percent to my account today which i'm pleased with.

The connection loss is broker's fault, as I have perfect internet connection. Drives me nuts.
Hope isn't a viable investment vehicle.
  • #918
  • Jan 17, 2008 11:17am Jan 17, 2008 11:17am
Quoting Northpro
Ah OK I thought you were referencing something different....I already saw this..Thanks

The 1,1,2......4,4,8...20,20,40 are his sequence of martingling the fibonacci sequence. 1,1,2 being the start of the sequence to the 3rd level. 1+1+2=4.
If rescue fails, continue martingale to the next level using the same sequence: 4,4,8. If that fails, fire the staff and take control yourself. Martingale the next level 1+1+2+4+4+8=20. Sequence it as 1,1,2 at the power of 20..Thats all....the next one would be 100,100,200...scary hey!

NP

That clears it up, thanks! Now to relate back.
  • #919
  • Edited 5:10am Jan 18, 2008 5:00am | Edited 5:10am
Hey, where is everyone?

I'm extremely busy with work/family/etc... at the moment so I can't dedicate a great deal of time but since it has my keen interest I'll give it what I can. Here are some of my thoughts.

At the moment, equilibrium comes to mind. It exists at the epicentre of the spiral (similar to the eye of a hurricane). When in an unfavourable position we maintain equilibrium until in a favourable position.

When in a favourable position we snowball for as far we can take it. I'd like to put the pieces together to see if I can come up with an elegant solution - one where all the pieces line up nicely.

fti insists we talk to each other so feedback, ideas, comments, etc... are very welcome!
  • #920
  • Jan 18, 2008 5:43am Jan 18, 2008 5:43am
Quoting Zoran
When in an unfavourable position we maintain equilibrium until in a favourable position.

When in a favourable position we snowball for as far we can take it. I'd like to put the pieces together to see if I can come up with an elegant solution - one where all the pieces line up nicely.
Hi Zoran,

I can see that I need to go back and read through more of the posts but just for me to get some sort of perspective on all of this, could you give me an idea of the time frames and range of price movement you would be trading.

No matter what the numbers are you should only decide what percentage of your capital you are prepared to put at risk, the more capital, the longer the time frame possible and the more chance you have to use these skews and spirals?

regards
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