the key to the mint

Very difficult condition congratulations for you guys who got pips!
... what about if it close under the strong support 156.50 on a houry base, can be the right occasion for a reentry??? What do you think about that Mr. harold?

we already missed the bus what did you mean before you are staying out because hourly signals going against you

Happy for you all. feel so helpless that i'm missing in action for today. going to take a nap, tomorrows another day. Happy for you Harold, dont like it wen you post a lost battle-bt can one really do without it in this buisness of ours. Maybe one day i'll discover the holy grail-lol

I took litterally your system: it is a perfect trend follower system!
First you look for a confirmed and possibly strong daily trend (first signal of the system). Then you wait until the hourly chart pint point a signal of confirmed movement with the trend (second signal, confirmed by emas, RSI and stochastich).
This entry point MUST HAVE a hight level of momentum for the pair (and usually it have it, giving us at least 20-30-40 ++ pips). If this not happens in the first minutes it means two things in my opinion:
a) the correct movement is just DELAYED as happended in this occasion (you are right)
b) the signal is fake (you are wrong)
I see just 50% of probablity to be right in this kind of occasions so ... I exit with minimum win or loss ... and wait the next bus

Hope this make sense

Another thing.
This morning (for me, I live GMT+1), the general condition of eurjpy was "choppy" and Bollinger Bands (the only other indicator I put on my screen) were flat: this situation dont push me to change my 50-50 opinion about the the signal...

understood but if you look at bb you will see that not only the ema s were resistemce but the bb middle band was also thats why i dont use more than these 3 indicators because then you have a tendency to over analyze if you really want to get technical there is divergence with rsi and stoc

Yes harold I agree with you, is better dont over analyze this system becouse it is ALREADY ANALIZED by emas RSI and STOCH!
Probably we could add just 2 discretional things: the RSI divergence (as you correctly observed) when we are in such overbough/oversold market and the presence of strong S/R (and BB) too close to the price. Just to play safer and get on board of busses with more statistical probability to be quicly profittable. This is just my little thinking.

not a problem when things are in ob/os areas trading is a lot harder the trigger finger to exit is always ready things will come around again and then we will be ok so far this week +35 better than - 35 so wife will have to eat burgerking this week instead of mcdonalds lol

Harold, are you still looking for trades or are you thru for the day?

if some how the eurjpy will turn around i will probably get in

The 50% happens every single time you enter a trade.

Price can do two things, either go up or go down. So, you either win or lose.

Settled the fact that we have always 50% chance, how do we tip the odds in our favour ? How do we get to 60% or more ?

We get there by following the bigger picture, how many times did you hear
"trade with the trend" ? Millions of times, why ? Because it increases your chances of success....

It's called the Mint Key for harold but it's a trend follower system like many. This might work better for some but not for others. Other people might like other trend following sytems better. It's just down to personal style.

Other things to learn are Fibonacci retracements, candlestick patterns and Price Action. Also a little knowledge of 123s and Head & Shoulder patterns will not hurt but these are things that take time to master.

As it is, harold's system is extremely good. It tips the odds from 50% to 60%. And this is all you need to start making money. Then in due time, others things will catch your interest. Maybe you'll study them just for knowledge, maybe you will implement them in your trading....maybe they will not be right for you.

But this system is good, hat's off to harold

very well put hornet . i look at it as a momentum type of method via the daily trend maybe i have it wrong none the less its been working for awile. there are 1000's of things you can add to this where will it stop then? we are always looking for another filter so we wont get false signals and have loses. here is a 100% probability YOU WILL HAVE LOSES no matter what your filters are period. so why overanalyze take your 60% and compound

well said, you will always have losses. no matter what filters or additions you come up with. the best things are the simple ones that i mentioned earlier: PA, candlesticks and chart patterns. this way you don't add anything to you chart, you just read it when the signal comes.

absolutely, make 20% on your account month in and month out....you'll soon be a millionare

And what pisses me off is that I went long on EURJPY after I closed the "mint key" trade.

Got stopped out with a trailing stop of 45 pips !!! Come out on top by 3 pips but look at it now !!!

i dont really see the need for candlesticks or chart patterns. the way i see it if the trend is say down on the daily and the 3 line up on the hourly thats the beginning of momentum to the downside and these are 1 hr candles usually you make your money within the 1 candle thats why all this other stuff to me is not needed

the thing is that when you know how to read a chart, you won't need anything at all.

having a system like yours is extremely good but knowing other things has never hurt anybody. maybe not needed on this momentum strategy but, knowledge is knowledge.

knowledge is knowledge is true all i am saying is 90% of the time when a signal comes within the next candle there is either a win or a loss the knowledge part might be used for longer term trades but 1 candle ? just my opinion i could be wrong and it wont be the first or last time either. we all have different thought processes when it comes to trading you can learn a lot of facts but to implement them in to a planable method to trade well now you got something

Entered eur/jpy at 6am est for +20.

harold as i already said, maybe not needed in this momentum strategy.

way to go fxpivots you must have held it longer than i did i took a -11 then reentered again for +20