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AUDUSD - No love for commodity currencies?

  • #21
  • Jan 6, 2008 9:20am Jan 6, 2008 9:20am
Quoting goop
hi guys,
long term support is near by, and i can see long AUDJPY from here. any ideas?

I already showed this in the aussie pairs thread but that long term support is the 100 ema on the weekly TF. Have a look. Its been tested a few times already and when that happens its like taking a girl out on a few dates to get to know her better before you eventually break through those panties.
Or you get slapped in the face and run back home. Either way THIS is the moment of truth.
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Just Trade It
  • #22
  • Jan 6, 2008 9:33am Jan 6, 2008 9:33am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
I already showed this in the aussie pairs thread but that long term support is the 100 ema on the weekly TF. Have a look. Its been tested a few times already and when that happens its like taking a girl out on a few dates to get to know her better before you eventually break through those panties.
Or you get slapped in the face and run back home. Either way THIS is the moment of truth.
great analogy, so true. BTW I'm sure just as with the H&S in the GJ everyone in the market's watching this. So once it moves either way it's going to be big. If you look at the monthly the bull trend is still intact, so unless the price dips below 85.00 its still an uptrend. For those scoring at home, that's a 1000 pip drop
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #23
  • Jan 6, 2008 10:09am Jan 6, 2008 10:09am
Quoting DutchTrader
Bonds move inverse to currencies, no?
If you want to buy Aussie Bonds you are going to have to buy the dollars first. US Bonds have been rallying and not effecting all currency crosses, while some speculate that is the only thing propping the dollar up.
  • #24
  • Jan 6, 2008 10:12am Jan 6, 2008 10:12am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
I already showed this in the aussie pairs thread but that long term support is the 100 ema on the weekly TF. Have a look. Its been tested a few times already and when that happens its like taking a girl out on a few dates to get to know her better before you eventually break through those panties.
Or you get slapped in the face and run back home. Either way THIS is the moment of truth.
I think you are correct on the fact that this is the turning point. I was reading a thread on these boards about identiofying trends and how the price will return to 50% on retraces, and we are here now, in the AUDUSD...judging by recent reaction to the news it's hard to say if the Dollar is really strong or just perhaps markets are experienceing temporary strength for the banks to shoake out and load up for the next wave of dollar weakness.

Don't stroke for the soft shoulder, stroke for the peak, brah.
  • #25
  • Jan 6, 2008 10:14am Jan 6, 2008 10:14am
Quoting goop
hi guys,
long term support is near by, and i can see long AUDJPY from here. any ideas?
Looks good to me...Maybe I should diversify on my long AUD with some AUDJPY
  • #26
  • Jan 6, 2008 3:29pm Jan 6, 2008 3:29pm
as per long term support and trend line a very strong downward push is needed to break it. The chances of bouncing is much higher with market already pricing fed rate cutes [50 basis pts]. Going long.. lets see
  • #27
  • Jan 6, 2008 7:39pm Jan 6, 2008 7:39pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
You would think in the flight to safety people would be interested in Aussie Treasuries since the yield is so healthy compared to US bonds. Any comments on what might detract people from buying the Aussie simply for bond yields?
A high yield doesn't make a government bond safe. Venezuela's bonds yield more than Aussie treasuries, does that make them more safe?

When people think of safety they think of the U.S. because it has the biggest economy and a strong military. While the media is all over the talk of a recession the U.S. economy happens to be extremely resilient. Again, the key world is safety, so people are not looking for the more attractive yield. They just want to know their money will be safe through any crisis.

There are definitely people still buying Australian bonds but the demand is just not enough to push the Aussie to new highs just yet. The environment is different from 7 months ago where the stock markets of the world kept making new highs and people were very comfortable to take on risks usually associated with higher yields.
Private message me for a link to my order flow website.
  • #28
  • Jan 6, 2008 7:53pm Jan 6, 2008 7:53pm
South America is become the next frontier for income investing...hehe...so the experts say. Relative to china / india, south america is gaining as target for growth. I see your point though,
  • #29
  • Jan 8, 2008 4:32am Jan 8, 2008 4:32am
A lot of the funds coming into AUD is from Japan. Once the Yen settles down, you will see more flows into AUD.
  • #30
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:17am Jan 9, 2008 6:17am
Anyone else get whipped in by the AUD/USD?

Not too convinced of the break. Got stopped, and reversed.

Question of the Fed is now of how much of a rate cut.
Just trying to make some dollars and sense...
  • #31
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:28am Jan 9, 2008 6:28am
Quoting TrevA
Short term - Up - I love the Aussie. Looming interest rate rises makes it attractive to carry traders which will push the currency up in the short term.

Long term (1-2 year view) - Down! If the US economic problems persist then we will see reduced Chinese exports to the USA and this will have a knock-on to the Aussie with reduced mineral exports to China... Reduced exports will place an economic squeeze on the Australian economy.

TrevA
This doesn't mean it will tank RELATIVE to the dollar!
  • #32
  • Jan 9, 2008 9:03am Jan 9, 2008 9:03am
aud/cad or will be Gold Vs Oil ?

Who's Rock

but one think i can count in week-month TF is call A-B-C Corection
  • #33
  • Jan 10, 2008 3:25pm Jan 10, 2008 3:25pm
Finally some love for the Aussie today. I guess all those positive numbers this week could not be ignored.
Just trying to make some dollars and sense...
  • #34
  • Jan 16, 2008 10:22pm Jan 16, 2008 10:22pm
How things can change within a couple of days - Citigroup & Intel (line up those dominos)

No love from Lehman Brothers as well:
Quote
Australian, New Zealand Dollars to Fall on Growth, Lehman Says
By Alex Lange
Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. recommends selling the currencies of Australian and New Zealand because the nations' economies are unlikely to avoid the effects of a slowdown in U.S. growth.

``Those trumpeting decoupling better think twice about it,'' said David Mozina, senior vice president of foreign exchange strategy at Lehman Brothers in New York. ``The financial linkages are still too great.''

The firm advises making bets on a decline in the currencies against the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc on concern that a U.S. recession could last the next three to six months. The Australian and the New Zealand dollar each fell to their lowest levels in a week yesterday.

New Zealand's dollar rose today after a government report showed inflation accelerated faster than expected, boosting speculation the central bank will have to keep the benchmark interest rate at a record high. The currency strengthened to 76.93 U.S. cents at 11:27 a.m. in Wellington, from 76.56 cents in late Asian trading yesterday. The Australian dollar traded at 87.87 U.S. cents, compared with 87.54 cents late in Asia yesterday.

``There's a lot of good news baked into the price already,'' said Mozina. He expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike interest rates at it's next meeting on Feb. 2 and the Reserve bank of New Zealand to leave it's rate unchanged and to ``signal that they're in a tightening mode.''
Just trying to make some dollars and sense...
  • #35
  • Jan 16, 2008 10:25pm Jan 16, 2008 10:25pm
Quoting PiP sL@y3r
How things can change within a couple of days - Citigroup & Intel (line up those dominos)

No love from Lehman Brothers as well:
they also have downgraded the euro and predicted an abysmal performance for 2008. check out the video in bloomberg.
  • #36
  • Jan 17, 2008 5:44am Jan 17, 2008 5:44am
Quoting acidguy
they also have downgraded the euro and predicted an abysmal performance for 2008.
Question is have they been blowing the Dollar trumpet for the past two years or have they reversed their outlook from pro-Euro?

The Australian economy this week continues to show signs of good health with good employment market, sales figures, housing data, and increment rises in inflation to give AUD bulls confidence of higher interest rates.
Just trying to make some dollars and sense...
  • #37
  • Jan 17, 2008 7:09am Jan 17, 2008 7:09am
japan is in no hurryto increase rate as they are talking abot cutting back to .25. In this contest audjpy,nzdjpy will def support nzdusd and audusd . Going short ? mmmmmmmm need more evidence .
  • #38
  • Jan 17, 2008 8:12am Jan 17, 2008 8:12am
Quoting PiP sL@y3r
Question is have they been blowing the Dollar trumpet for the past two years or have they reversed their outlook from pro-Euro?

The Australian economy this week continues to show signs of good health with good employment market, sales figures, housing data, and increment rises in inflation to give AUD bulls confidence of higher interest rates.
yeah, thats the concern.
now they are smashing the euro. if goldman schanz said this, probably i would not bellieve them but this people are somehow credible and in the view of many hedge funds and large investors group.

i think the dollar is going to be helped by something. usa economic growth, not matter the return on interest rates. why?
stocks in europe, asia, are in so much big bubbles that the best place to put it would be in usa.

so its like usa is after all those countries in the economic recovery, then they probably will start lowering rates and worse for their currencies, as usa has already been in those stages.

but lets see whats going to happen when ben cut rates, an interesting reaction.
  • #39
  • Last Post: Jan 17, 2008 8:17am Jan 17, 2008 8:17am
The shipping data from asia remains healthy as that part of he world maintains it's own micro economy. Surely there will be some slow down, perhaps in wine exports to USA, hehe, but generally AUD looks very healthy. I just sold a long position, too early again, but you take it as it comes. My position management needs fine tuning, but I digress...

Australia looks good, but there is a cap somewhere up there to the topside, so range bond action is likely in the cards...which works for me.
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