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Peaks and Valleys (Trading Naked)

  • #161
  • Jan 16, 2008 6:36am Jan 16, 2008 6:36am
JustCatalin,

Move up to a 4hr chart and see if you notice the difference. MUCH clearer picture with the larger timeframe.

Many Pips,

Swingtrade65
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #162
  • Jan 16, 2008 10:37am Jan 16, 2008 10:37am
Quoting swingtrade65
JustCatalin,

Move up to a 4hr chart and see if you notice the difference. MUCH clearer picture with the larger timeframe.

Many Pips,

Swingtrade65
Thanks both of you for answer

I know on big picture we have clear trend but this trend can be also on 4H timeframe no only in 1Hour

Maybe i will take a look and i will post picture evry day like a trading journal

Regards
  • #163
  • Edited 5:00pm Jan 16, 2008 1:40pm | Edited 5:00pm
JustCatalin,

yes, definitely move to 4hr or better yet daily and work your way down as you build up your confidence...

Here are couple trades I took recently:
g/chf long off 4hr, but daily also looks good (If you also use PA, you should see BUOVB on daily today)
eur/gbp short off daily (closed, don't ask )
still in g/u but came very closed to being stopped out
I'm also long u/j, e/j, g/j and c/j (those were based on PA not P & V);
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  • #164
  • Jan 16, 2008 1:54pm Jan 16, 2008 1:54pm
Quoting raczekfx
JustCatalin,

yes, definitely move to 4hr or better yet daily and work your way down as you build up your confidence...

Here are couple trades I took recently:
g/chf long off 4hr, but daily also looks good (If you also use PA, you should see BEOVB on daily today)
eur/gbp short off daily (closed, don't ask )
still in g/u but came very closed to being stopped out
I'm also long u/j, e/j, g/j and c/j (those were based on PA not P & V);
Thanks for posting

Somtime i think i need a mentor( i try to learn from 3 years ago and still have problem in trading....im still demo ...

I love price action and i know this is the key....but i dont know what im missing because im not profitable.

Anyone want to be my mentor only for price action? No ema, no indicators and no fibonacci

By the way raczekfx you do great job....you make great pips...is live or demo?

Regards
Catalin
  • #165
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:13pm Jan 16, 2008 2:13pm
Quoting justcatalin
Thanks for posting

Somtime i think i need a mentor( i try to learn from 3 years ago and still have problem in trading....im still demo ...

I love price action and i know this is the key....but i dont know what im missing because im not profitable.

Anyone want to be my mentor only for price action? No ema, no indicators and no fibonacci

By the way raczekfx you do great job....you make great pips...is live or demo?

Regards
Catalin
I still make costly mistakes after all those years... I'd say move to dailies, reduce your trading size to minimum, have a plan and trade your plan, and you should see the difference in few months.
Yes, it's a small, live P & V test account from post # 136
  • #166
  • Jan 16, 2008 4:06pm Jan 16, 2008 4:06pm
Quoting raczekfx
Here are couple trades I took recently:
g/chf long off 4hr, but daily also looks good (If you also use PA, you should see BEOVB on daily today)
DId I read that correctly, a long off 4 hour but a Bearish outside vertical bar on daily??
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #167
  • Jan 16, 2008 4:59pm Jan 16, 2008 4:59pm
Quoting Thexder
DId I read that correctly, a long off 4 hour but a Bearish outside vertical bar on daily??
sorry, my bad... should be BUOVB
  • #168
  • Jan 16, 2008 5:02pm Jan 16, 2008 5:02pm
That's what I was hoping, otherwise I had to go back to post 1 of J16 - and I didn't have another 14 weeks to read thru that monster...

Are you taking entries from just the one time frame or using a higher one to get a trend coincidence first?
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #169
  • Jan 16, 2008 5:12pm Jan 16, 2008 5:12pm
Quoting Thexder
That's what I was hoping, otherwise I had to go back to post 1 of J16 - and I didn't have another 14 weeks to read thru that monster...

Are you taking entries from just the one time frame or using a higher one to get a trend coincidence first?
I trade off dailies and 4hr... Once I make up my mind (re: trade direction) I may drop down (rarely) to 1hr to look for a setup.
Chf/gbp today was kind of an impulse trading.. I opened my platform just before 8AM est and when I saw what was happening on that cross I immediately bought yen crosses..
  • #170
  • Jan 16, 2008 5:38pm Jan 16, 2008 5:38pm
How is daily direction bias determined - if it was last trending up daily for a while and then there is a day of down trend showing, would that allow a down entry on a 4 hour or is that considered counter trend and risky?

In other words before taking a trade in the reverse direction on 4 hour, does a reverse direction trade have to be signaled on the daily (new peak/valley in opposite direction daily, plus the eventual breach of that, going in the opposite direction daily now)?
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #171
  • Jan 16, 2008 8:51pm Jan 16, 2008 8:51pm
Quoting Thexder
How is daily direction bias determined - if it was last trending up daily for a while and then there is a day of down trend showing, would that allow a down entry on a 4 hour or is that considered counter trend and risky?

In other words before taking a trade in the reverse direction on 4 hour, does a reverse direction trade have to be signaled on the daily (new peak/valley in opposite direction daily, plus the eventual breach of that, going in the opposite direction daily now)?
Hey xder,

My opinion for what it's worth is that you should use peaks and valleys on the daily and pyramid your positions with the whatever your position is on the daily(long or short) based on the 4-hour( or 3-hour) charts. When a peak is broken on the daily chart, is of more importance at this timeframe and usually signals a good trend. If you manage to catch a good one, you can get tons of pips from it this way.

Best of luck,

Kevin
  • #172
  • Jan 16, 2008 9:00pm Jan 16, 2008 9:00pm
Well then, some big moves happened today and I lost a lot of positions I was carrying, especially in GBP/CHF and USD/CHF. Overall, I netted roughly 10% not counting current holdings. This is just an example of how if you go for the homeruns, you can and sometimes will strikeout. The important thing is MM and trying again.

My S/L for GBP/JPY was BARELY not hit, and I guess for now it doesn't seem bad. Overall, I think the long term trend for this pair is short, but who knows how big this retracement will be.
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  • #173
  • Jan 16, 2008 9:53pm Jan 16, 2008 9:53pm
My next question would be what is considered a break of a high or low daily, is it just whenever it penetrates the level that is being broken or should a close beyond that level occur for validation? I'm concerned about those times where on the daily, it whipsaws around for days or weeks and could trigger a lot of failures.

I'll go back and re-test by looking at breaks on daily and entries on H4. I already did some testing by just entering on H4 in the direction of whatever the previous daily move was without looking for daily break out.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #174
  • Jan 16, 2008 10:46pm Jan 16, 2008 10:46pm
I just took a fast look at a few weeks of Eur/Jpy covering trending as well as ranging times and made some fast notes to look more at. It goes something like...

When a peak or valley is penetrated on the daily (taking the candle high or low as the breach point when observing the SMA1-close hump), then start looking at the 4 hour chart but not entering anything yet, even if the activity is passing beyond some 4-hour peak/valley - wait until a new one forms on the 4 hour chart and is then broken in the daily break out direction. Then exit on 4 hour peak/valley stops.

That seemed to keep me out of whipsaws when things get choppy and when things were about to start trending in a big way, I was able to get in relatively early and catch a bunch of the move still once a new hump formed on the 4 hour and I took the break of that.

I need to do more testing but those are the "rules" I made up as I tried it out. Wanted to document it so I don't forget and so people can evaluate and reject or add to the thoughts.

Jared: Here we go again...I won't stop until I can trade from it. No more sleep until I come up with a 20+ page thesis PDF.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #175
  • Jan 16, 2008 11:01pm Jan 16, 2008 11:01pm
Hi Thexder. It was freaky to read your post as I was working on the same thing on the same pair.I've come to the same conclusion (for now). Peaks breaking peaks to cut out the whipsaws.Specializing in a few pairs there's no reason to not time in on a 5 minute chart. I look forward to your analysis.
Quoting Thexder
I just took a fast look at a few weeks of Eur/Jpy covering trending as well as ranging times and made some fast notes to look more at. It goes something like...

When a peak or valley is penetrated on the daily (taking the candle high or low as the breach point when observing the SMA1-close hump), then start looking at the 4 hour chart but not entering anything yet, even if the activity is passing beyond some 4-hour peak/valley - wait until a new one forms on the 4 hour chart and is then broken in the daily break out direction. Then exit on 4 hour peak/valley stops.

That seemed to keep me out of whipsaws when things get choppy and when things were about to start trending in a big way, I was able to get in relatively early and catch a bunch of the move still once a new hump formed on the 4 hour and I took the break of that.

I need to do more testing but those are the "rules" I made up as I tried it out. Wanted to document it so I don't forget and so people can evaluate and reject or add to the thoughts.

Jared: Here we go again...I won't stop until I can trade from it. No more sleep until I come up with a 20+ page thesis PDF.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #176
  • Jan 16, 2008 11:05pm Jan 16, 2008 11:05pm
I've been known to dive down to the 1 minute chart on GBP/USD after studying it for almost 4 months now. When I find the best pair for me to use daily and 4 hour, I'm sure I'll get out that long drillbit again and dig right down there in some fashion.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #177
  • Edited Jan 17, 2008 12:58pm Jan 16, 2008 11:15pm | Edited Jan 17, 2008 12:58pm
My favorite pair is G/J, but with this method the stop would have to be too wide on the 4 hour. your questions are ones I have. My take on it is to use a combination of the 1 sma and bar chart highs and lows, with me leaning more towards the close at this stage.If that is the case, setting limit orders without watching the computer could end in some false trades. A bit of science mixed with art?
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #178
  • Jan 17, 2008 6:54am Jan 17, 2008 6:54am
Hi All,
I just want to throw my 2 cents in here if I may. I would like to address all of the intense scouring for a way to cut out whipsaws, get the perfect entries, perfect exits etc. etc etc

The part that a lot of guys seem to be missing is that what you are looking for doesn't exist....it is an effort in futility..... In any trend folowing system there will be whipsaws...SO WHAT.... Do not get caught up in the quest to be right....Would you rather be right and a breakeven or worse trader, or are you interested in taking many many pips from the market.......THE most important part is to study money and position management....while many people are busy trying to find the optimal method.....there are many out there who are pulling hundreds and in some cases thousands of pips every week.....this method works as is....period

Trading is not about the system.....trading is about managing yourself and your own destructive behaviors.....trading is about money management.....trading is about taking money from those who cannot do the first two

Many Pips to All
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #179
  • Jan 17, 2008 7:00am Jan 17, 2008 7:00am
The problem I have with whipsaws is when I try to follow the break outs and stops as they come and take whatever happens, I might see a successful big move of several hundred but then I lose 50 to 150 per whipsaw back and forth and it wipes out the big moves. That's what I want to figure out how to optimize into net profit.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #180
  • Jan 17, 2008 7:11am Jan 17, 2008 7:11am
Thexder,

first off, I have been through where you are at mentally...trying to rationalize this or that system......I went through that about 15 years ago.....What I am telling you is that if you trade this system on a 4hr or higher timeframe using sound money management, you will make pips, and lots of them.....I personally have pulled over 4,000 pips from these Yen crosses in the last 2 weeks....I guarantee that will more than make up for any little 50 or 150 pip whipsaw that I endure until the next trend shows itself......

Once again I think you are still missing the point.....it is not the system.....you can even flip a coin as long as you manage your money effectively. I only have positive weeks about 45% of the time.....which means that about 5-6 of every 10 weeks I am down on the week......but the number that is most telling is that my winning weeks are about 3.5-4 times larger than my losing weeks....I still pull many pips from the market when you look at it on a monthly basis......it has NOTHING to do with the system.....is has everyting to with the fact that when I am wrong, I only lose a small portion of my capital...but when I am right, I squeeze them until they scream for mercy....I will ride a trend for as long as it will go....weeks or even months adding every time we take out a new peak or valley.....

Don't waste your time trying to fix the method, spend your time fixing the things that you have control over.

Best of Luck
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
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