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  • #861
  • Jan 15, 2008 4:44am Jan 15, 2008 4:44am
Quoting ocelot
Well I had a good couple of weeks including a stretch of 9 winners in a row. This week though, the GBPJPY has started to trend and I've been getting in too early, too eager to trade, and going against the trend. Just need to relax and focus on the good setups. And of course, to vent. =)
Yes it happens. You did a great job of answering your own question!

So much easier than taking advice from someone else...
Gone to a better place
  • #862
  • Jan 15, 2008 4:52am Jan 15, 2008 4:52am
Thanks for the kind words smikester, it usually takes my posting to a public forum before I figure out I already knew the right answer. =)
  • #863
  • Jan 15, 2008 7:16am Jan 15, 2008 7:16am
Good morning all.

Ocelot, i completley understand what you are saying. Sometimes you just get eager and want to be "in the game".

I have a quick question for the board.....yesterday i took the GBP trade at the asian open and got out at the 1/8 ( i live in illinois, and work during the day...)....i can see that it has continued to keep going up, now sitting at 5/8....how do you guys interpret the MM lines and would that have kept you into the GBP trade longer?

Thanks in advance,

cl
  • #864
  • Jan 15, 2008 8:25am Jan 15, 2008 8:25am
Hi Ocelot,

If it's any consolation, I also got killed yesterday. My own fault, of course (I mean, who else would be responsible??).

I took what looked like a good GBPJPY short, watched it zoom up around -32 and exited, only to have it come back down again. Would have given me at least +30 if I had remained. Ironically, my original SL was set to -50, but the rapid drawdown made me pull the plug.

Two hours later I did the exact same thing. Exactly the same. Can you imagine?

So, I must have entered too early both times. I always expect some retracing, but when it zooms away like that the moment I enter, I get scared off. If I look back for a month or so I can safely say that, had I not given in to retracement fear, nearly all of my bad trades would have been profitable.

So, I guess I need to enter a bit later (after the retrace?) and -- more importantly -- learn to tolerate the zooming downdraw that seems inevitable with GBPJPY. Nearly all of my bad trades have been caused by fear. Most of my bad trades would have gone positive if I had just waited them out. So, I seem to be able to recognize a good setup, but need to relax and let the trades work themselves out.

Anyhow, don't be too hard on yourself. We all have much to learn, and sometimes our lessons can be a bit harsh. Trade with smaller lots or minis, until you regain your confidence.

Venting is healthy. Thanks for sharing with us!



Quoting ocelot
I'm getting absolutely killed this week, I'm going back to demoing for a few weeks I think. Is anyone using the MTF method having a better go at it lately?
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #865
  • Jan 15, 2008 12:58pm Jan 15, 2008 12:58pm
If its of any help.....can you post your charts at the point you entered your bad trades....

Glenn
  • #866
  • Jan 15, 2008 2:01pm Jan 15, 2008 2:01pm
I have found a few stoch indicators in my files.....someone may find them usefull.....I dont use them myself...

the two stoch indicators turn a colour when it goes into overbought or oversold area and of course changes back to gray as it moves out...you can change just about every thing with these...

The bar is based on stoch and the green is up the red is down and maroon is stay out (lol)...

Glenn

The arrows on the chart are part of the Stochastic_Color_v1.02classicB.mq4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 19 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Stochastic_Color_v1.02classicB.mq4   13 KB | 559 downloads
File Type: mq4 StochColorBars.mq4   4 KB | 632 downloads
File Type: mq4 Color Stochastic v1.02.mq4   12 KB | 535 downloads
  • #867
  • Jan 15, 2008 3:52pm Jan 15, 2008 3:52pm
current trades....

G/J short.... look to 209.30 tp as its the 0/8 th line 1hr and the 3/8th line on the 4hr.....when it doubles like that it will be stronger resistance..

u/J short ..should re test the pervious lows....and I belive it may move down to 106.00 over the day....possible more likely during or after London opening with the added volume...

Also added the other indicators ...just to show how they look on a live chart..


Glenn
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 2.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #868
  • Jan 15, 2008 6:32pm Jan 15, 2008 6:32pm
Hey guys,
Since I seem to have trouble posting charts here, if you would like to see 2 trades that I was in today, with some notes, email me and I will send you a screen shot in word format. They are 5 min trades and were both taken in low volume time. 1 was for 18 pips around 1 pm CST and the other for 10 pips at 5 pm CST. There were many other ops but that was the only times I was watching. In fact a nice buy opportunity just occurred abuut 30 minutes ago but I was putting my notes on the screen shot so I missed that too.
  • #869
  • Jan 15, 2008 9:33pm Jan 15, 2008 9:33pm
GBPUSD +35 , USDCHF + 20 on a short tonight.....

hope you guys had great trades.

cl
  • #870
  • Jan 15, 2008 10:18pm Jan 15, 2008 10:18pm
I admire those folks who can spot the trades on the higher time frames. I try but I'm not always able to watch the market. So I end up trading when I can. Here are my trades for late tonight. GU +40, GC +30, GJ +10, +40,+20. Total +140. AU currently +10...entered on retrace. (closed at +7), total +147.

This M5 system needs a name, so I'll call it the "Canuck Scalp".

I take no credit whatsoever as it was cobbled together as follows:
5-3-3 from spud
MACD 5-13-1 from that famous H4 MACD thread - worth the read
Absolute strength indicator from Glenn (you almost could trade just using this indicator)

Thanks to all of them.

The rules for entry are as follows:

M5 stochastic 5-3-3 leads the way and must be above or below 50
MACD 5-13-1 must cross the zero line
Absolute strength must also be in agreement

The rules for exit - take your profits when they appear and don't get greedy. There will be many many M5 opportunities. If the trade isn't going your way within 5 to 10 minutes, you might consider exiting and waiting for the next opportunities.

These 3 indicators, when in agreement, have me on a string of winners. I try to implement other people's systems with mixed results. This is the only system that seems to works consistently for me.

So I've zipped the indicators and the template - hopefully others will see what I see in the trades. I'd be interested in any feedback.

Cheers,
CanuckCT
Attached Images
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip canuck scalp.zip   10 KB | 607 downloads
  • #871
  • Jan 16, 2008 12:43am Jan 16, 2008 12:43am
The MTFS system(s) work a lot better (for me) during ranging markets. Has anyone had good success trading MTFS during trending markets? I read Spud's elasticity overview, he makes it sound so easy...
  • #872
  • Jan 16, 2008 5:20am Jan 16, 2008 5:20am
Quoting k2kv
Hi Ocelot,

If it's any consolation, I also got killed yesterday. My own fault, of course (I mean, who else would be responsible??).

I took what looked like a good GBPJPY short, watched it zoom up around -32 and exited, only to have it come back down again. Would have given me at least +30 if I had remained. Ironically, my original SL was set to -50, but the rapid drawdown made me pull the plug.

Two hours later I did the exact same thing. Exactly the same. Can you imagine?

So, I must have entered too early both times. I always expect some retracing, but when it zooms away like that the moment I enter, I get scared off. If I look back for a month or so I can safely say that, had I not given in to retracement fear, nearly all of my bad trades would have been profitable.

So, I guess I need to enter a bit later (after the retrace?) and -- more importantly -- learn to tolerate the zooming downdraw that seems inevitable with GBPJPY. Nearly all of my bad trades have been caused by fear. Most of my bad trades would have gone positive if I had just waited them out. So, I seem to be able to recognize a good setup, but need to relax and let the trades work themselves out.

Anyhow, don't be too hard on yourself. We all have much to learn, and sometimes our lessons can be a bit harsh. Trade with smaller lots or minis, until you regain your confidence.

Venting is healthy. Thanks for sharing with us!

Hello Jeff,

May I join the "Got Burned Club"? These setbacks should be view as the cost of tuition when we decided to enroll at Forex University. I do agree with you that a good antidote for the fear we experience is to trade an amount that allows high volatile pairs to bounce around until our set up comes to fruition.
My biggest losses come when I keep a trade open which I am eventually forced to close because my money management was inadequate. It seems to me that with the gbp/jpy pair, especially if we are trading short time frames, one needs to be very disciplined or have deep pockets to withstand the drawdowns. In my case, I posses neither and in the Forex market this can be lethal. If I can not learn "when to hold them,when to fold them...you have to know when to walk away and know when to run...", then I will never meet my goal. I am still determined to find a way to domesticate my unruly tendencies.
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #873
  • Jan 16, 2008 7:27am Jan 16, 2008 7:27am
A couple of responses...

Canuck- I think your system looks great. Something i've tried to do before i take a trade (straight out of spud's playbook) is get a confirmation on 2 time frames. I personally "feel" much more comfortable taking those trades. Typically i use the 1H/15Min. I think your use of the MACD on the 5 helps me to look at a problem i have been having - which is getting out of a trade too early. AFter entering on the 15, i have a tendancy not to watch the 1H for the longer term trend. Sometimes i'll just go back to the 15, see a reverse, and panic and capture my gains. AFter work i plan on experimenting with your system because i think it has a lot of promise and is just so simple. Thanks for sharing.

Ocelot - I pretty much agree with you about ranging markets. The problem i have with the trending markets is wanting to enter against the trend. It seems like when a market is falling, it's real easy for the stochastics to coil into the "rod" we are using to seeing on these pics. You get the signal to enter, then after 20 pips in your direction, the bottom falls out again( obviously an exageration, but i'm sure you know what i mean). I've tried to incorporate a longer term stochastic on my chart ( 4H, or day) and that has helped me to stay with the trend more. I think the absolute strength indicator has been a big help in terms of finding those points of reversal.

take care,

cl
  • #874
  • Jan 16, 2008 7:41am Jan 16, 2008 7:41am
Quoting PipAV8tor
Hey guys,
Since I seem to have trouble posting charts here...
May I suggest you try my thread at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=53366 where literally thousands of people have improved their posting skills?
Gone to a better place
  • #875
  • Jan 16, 2008 8:04am Jan 16, 2008 8:04am
Quoting CanuckCT
I admire those folks who can spot the trades on the higher time frames. I try but I'm not always able to watch the market. So I end up trading when I can. Here are my trades for late tonight. GU +40, GC +30, GJ +10, +40,+20. Total +140. AU currently +10...entered on retrace. (closed at +7), total +147.

This M5 system needs a name, so I'll call it the "Canuck Scalp".

I take no credit whatsoever as it was cobbled together as follows:
5-3-3 from spud
MACD 5-13-1 from that famous H4 MACD thread - worth the read
Absolute strength indicator from Glenn (you almost could trade just using this indicator)

Thanks to all of them.

The rules for entry are as follows:

M5 stochastic 5-3-3 leads the way and must be above or below 50
MACD 5-13-1 must cross the zero line
Absolute strength must also be in agreement

The rules for exit - take your profits when they appear and don't get greedy. There will be many many M5 opportunities. If the trade isn't going your way within 5 to 10 minutes, you might consider exiting and waiting for the next opportunities.

These 3 indicators, when in agreement, have me on a string of winners. I try to implement other people's systems with mixed results. This is the only system that seems to works consistently for me.

So I've zipped the indicators and the template - hopefully others will see what I see in the trades. I'd be interested in any feedback.

Cheers,
CanuckCT

Thank you for all your effort to post your trades, indicators and template. I am going to check this out...you have a good thing going here.

Thanks again,

T4K
  • #876
  • Jan 16, 2008 10:04am Jan 16, 2008 10:04am
Trade just completed...+18...could have taken 30 but distracted and closed early.
Cheers,
CanuckCT
Attached Image
  • #877
  • Jan 16, 2008 10:21am Jan 16, 2008 10:21am
my trade on ej for 20 pips.
Look how perfect it looks like .
It is trading towards 4h,which is well below 20 (at 10),daily even more perfect.pointing down and at 5.
veryqiuck pips.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej enter.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ej last.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #878
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:28pm Jan 16, 2008 2:28pm
Quoting cl3307
Ocelot - I pretty much agree with you about ranging markets. The problem i have with the trending markets is wanting to enter against the trend. It seems like when a market is falling, it's real easy for the stochastics to coil into the "rod" we are using to seeing on these pics. You get the signal to enter, then after 20 pips in your direction, the bottom falls out again( obviously an exageration, but i'm sure you know what i mean). I've tried to incorporate a longer term stochastic on my chart ( 4H, or day) and that has helped me to stay with the trend more. I think the absolute strength indicator has been a big help in terms of finding those points of reversal.
cl
Those are the exactly the kind of trades I was losing on this past week. I'd gotten accustomed to ignoring the 4hr stochastic and just relying on the 15m, 30m, and 1hr in order to get quicker, and more numerous signals. However, if you do that in a trending market what I'm discovering often happens is that by the time you get a signal, you're at the end of a retrace and the trend begins to resume -- against you. All of my bad trades could have been avoided by following the original rules and not taking any long trades while the 4hr was under 20. Since the yen-based pairs have been in a strong down trend this week I thought for fun I would ignore the stochs completely and just short everything (in a demo account of course). I did this last night and got +50, +50, and +100 on the AUDJPY, EURJPY, and GBPJPY respectively. A veteran trader I know once told me "A trend will often go further, and longer than we think it will", so that was my logic going in. =)

This morning I see the 4hr is back above 20 on the GBPJPY so perhaps we're getting back to a ranging environment. Lesson learned - pay attention to the 4hr stochastic. Happy trading everyone.
  • #879
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:31pm Jan 16, 2008 2:31pm
Quoting marcin25
my trade on ej for 20 pips.
Look how perfect it looks like .
It is trading towards 4h,which is well below 20 (at 10),daily even more perfect.pointing down and at 5.
veryqiuck pips.
Nice work Marcin. Were you tempted to take a long trade on that move up right before your short trade? I know I would have. Been tempted that is. =)
  • #880
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:41pm Jan 16, 2008 2:41pm
About 90 minutes ago I went into a meeting. When I came out here is what I missed.... A 100+ pip move according to entries of M5 Canuck Scalp system - not really scalping, so I guess I need a different name. I've added a 5-3-3 and a 14-3-3 stoch. The 5-3-3 is out ahead. If 14-3-3 follows, that's extra confirmation of the move. If it doesn't follow, a retrace is in play. In this trade both stochs already above 80. That doesn't seem to be an issue, you just have to be watching for the 5-3-3 to move.
Cheers
CanuckCT
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