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Peaks and Valleys (Trading Naked)

  • #141
  • Jan 15, 2008 8:54am Jan 15, 2008 8:54am
Quoting raczekfx
p.s. next trigger might be eur/gpb short few pips below current price....
Sharing orders sounds like a good idea. A little more liveliness around here is always good. Let's try and include charts then shall we?

Closest order set for me is Short GBP/JPY ~ 90 pips away.
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  • #142
  • Jan 15, 2008 10:37am Jan 15, 2008 10:37am
Hi All,

I have been trading with peaks and Valleys for quite some time now and find it to be the most effective method of trading out there, if you will let it be. I personally keep a spreadsheet of several pairs. It has the weekly direction, the daily direction and the peaks and or valleys that will reverse each direction. I personally only trade in the direction of the main trend ( which I think is the whole point of this type of system) and this spreadsheet is just a visual aid. when both weekly and daily are heading in the same direction, I frop down to the 4hr and get entries and add on spots from there. I am including the spreadsheet for anyone that wants to take a look at it.

Many Pips
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls PEAKSVALLEY.xls   15 KB | 1,379 downloads
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #143
  • Jan 15, 2008 10:56am Jan 15, 2008 10:56am
Quoting kharvell
Sharing orders sounds like a good idea. A little more liveliness around here is always good. Let's try and include charts then shall we?

Closest order set for me is Short GBP/JPY ~ 90 pips away.
Yes, sharing is good and feels good too...
the latest one in a/u...
Attached Image
  • #144
  • Jan 15, 2008 10:59am Jan 15, 2008 10:59am
Quoting swingtrade65
Hi All,

I have been trading with peaks and Valleys for quite some time now and find it to be the most effective method of trading out there, if you will let it be. I personally keep a spreadsheet of several pairs. It has the weekly direction, the daily direction and the peaks and or valleys that will reverse each direction. I personally only trade in the direction of the main trend ( which I think is the whole point of this type of system) and this spreadsheet is just a visual aid. when both weekly and daily are heading in the same direction, I frop down to the 4hr and get entries and add on spots from there. I am including the spreadsheet for anyone that wants to take a look at it.

Many Pips
so simple, yet elegant.. thanks for sharing!
  • #145
  • Jan 15, 2008 11:32am Jan 15, 2008 11:32am
Quoting raczekfx
Yes, sharing is good and feels good too...
the latest one in a/u...
Hi raczek

Are you opening your position on break of the close or "high and low" of the bar the forms a peak or valley?

As I see your line chart is showing close of the bars therefore i should assume that you are entering on break of the close, unless I am mistaken.
Regards
  • #146
  • Jan 15, 2008 11:49am Jan 15, 2008 11:49am
Quoting swingtrade65
Hi All,

I have been trading with peaks and Valleys for quite some time now and find it to be the most effective method of trading out there, if you will let it be. I personally keep a spreadsheet of several pairs. It has the weekly direction, the daily direction and the peaks and or valleys that will reverse each direction. I personally only trade in the direction of the main trend ( which I think is the whole point of this type of system) and this spreadsheet is just a visual aid. when both weekly and daily are heading in the same direction, I frop down to the 4hr and get entries and add on spots from there. I am including the spreadsheet for anyone that wants to take a look at it.

Many Pips
Swingtrade65,

This spreadsheet is perfect. This is exactly what should go through everybody's mind, nothing more. What is the trend for my timeframe? Where is my entrance? Do I want to enter? Great way of depicting all the information you should need. Thanks for sharing this great resource, and feel free to keep updating us as you see fit! It is a welcome idea using the weekly to confirm the trend, but could result in missing trades as the weekly trend does not change often.. It would probably result in improved accuracy though.

Keep up the good work,

Kevin



I will show an update of my trades tonight. Right now I'm taking a little bit of a beating, but even if I lose, I win, so no worries. Babe Ruth hit the most homeruns, but he also lead the league in strikeouts.
  • #147
  • Jan 15, 2008 11:51am Jan 15, 2008 11:51am
I have been testing this system on vHands for a while now, and it seems to work well for the most part. The trouble I have is the arbitrary 50 pip stop loss. I get stopped out too much (especially GBP/JPY). What I have found that works better it putting the stop by the nearest peak or valley behind price. For example, if going long, put the stop below the most recent major valley.

The other problem of course is a ranging market. I am getting better at recognizing the beginning of a ranging market however and change my strategy to sell at resistence, buy at support, but sell if there is a breakout of support and buy if there is a breakout above resistance. The problem is I end up with losses usually before I notice the market is ranging..
  • #148
  • Jan 15, 2008 11:57am Jan 15, 2008 11:57am
Btw, I couldn't answer the poll because it depends. I may trade naked in the summer but right now its too cold!
  • #149
  • Jan 15, 2008 11:57am Jan 15, 2008 11:57am
Quoting howard
Hi raczek

Are you opening your position on break of the close or "high and low" of the bar the forms a peak or valley?

As I see your line chart is showing close of the bars therefore i should assume that you are entering on break of the close, unless I am mistaken.
I do it on a break of a peak or valley, but you might want to redirect this question to more experienced folks here..
  • #150
  • Edited 12:07pm Jan 15, 2008 11:59am | Edited 12:07pm
Quoting Jared
I have been testing this system on vHands for a while now, and it seems to work well for the most part. The trouble I have is the arbitrary 50 pip stop loss. I get stopped out too much (especially GBP/JPY). What I have found that works better it putting the stop by the nearest peak or valley behind price. For example, if going long, put the stop below the most recent major valley.

The other problem of course is a ranging market. I am getting better at recognizing the beginning of a ranging market however and change my strategy to sell at resistence, buy at support, but sell if there is a breakout of support and buy if there is a breakout above resistance. The problem is I end up with losses usually before I notice the market is ranging..
Hey Jared,

Are you trading off of the 1-hour chart or higher? The 50 pip S/L was what I felt would be good for most pairs. GBP/JPY is usually an exclusion because this pair is a beast. If you want to trade GBP/JPY you must realize that it can go 150 pips in 30 minutes sometimes.. and usually 50 pips stops are hit unless you're trading a really small timeframe. Your strategy of putting your S/L by a peak/valley will undoubtedly bring you better results on this pair.

To determine ranging markets, it is useful to determine the longer term trend then your timeframe. It will at least filter out many of the bad trades.

You will lose, Jared. Count on it. Just accept this now, and keep trying.

Best of luck,

Kevin
  • #151
  • Jan 15, 2008 12:07pm Jan 15, 2008 12:07pm
Quoting kharvell
Hey Jared,

Are you trading off of the 1-hour chart or higher? The 50 pip S/L was what I felt would be good for most pairs. GBP/JPY is usually an exclusion because this pair is a beast. If you want to trade GBP/JPY you must realize that it can go 150 pips in 30 minutes sometimes.. and usually 50 pips stops are hit unless you're trading a really small timeframe. Your strategy of putting your S/L by a peak/valley will undoubtedly bring you better results on this pair.

To determine ranging markets, it is useful to determine the longer term trend then your timeframe. It will at least filter out many of the bad trades.

You will lose, Jared. Count on it. Just accept this now, and keep trying.

Best of luck,

Kevin

Best of luck,
I am using the 4 hour time frame. I have been practicing mostly with GBP/JPY beacause I have been trying to figure out a way to trade that pair (tried several techniques) and have found that peaks and valleys works quite well on it, better then anything else I have tried, as long as you don't use a 50 pip stop loss.

One of the best parts of peaks and valleys I think is the pyramiding aspect - adding to a winning position. It increases wins exponentially and keeps losses small.
  • #152
  • Jan 15, 2008 12:26pm Jan 15, 2008 12:26pm
Attached to this post is a document written by Swingtrade65 that he sent to me a while back. A lot of it agreed with my own trading plan, but also it shared some invaluable insights I hadn't thought of. This will be a great resource on money management for newbies especially. Pay special attention to his points on correlation, over-trading, and risk management. He has been trading for a quite a while longer than me, and I think we should give him some thanks for sharing his insights!

Hope it helps,

Kevin
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc TRADING NAKED.doc   40 KB | 2,057 downloads
  • #153
  • Jan 15, 2008 12:44pm Jan 15, 2008 12:44pm
Quoting kharvell
Attached to this post is a document written by Swingtrade65 that he sent to me a while back. A lot of it agreed with my own trading plan, but also it shared some invaluable insights I hadn't thought of. This will be a great resource on money management for newbies especially. Pay special attention to his points on correlation, over-trading, and risk management. He has been trading for a quite a while longer than me, and I think we should give him some thanks for sharing his insights!

Hope it helps,

Kevin
Thanks, it looks good, however it says there are three sections and the document only has one, I think something is missing.
  • #154
  • Jan 15, 2008 12:53pm Jan 15, 2008 12:53pm
Jared,

You are correct, it says that there are 3 sections. I have decided however to not publish the 2 other sections. I think it is extremely important for each trader to design their own trading system within the framework of "Peaks and Valley". Each trader has his or her own comfort level and therefore should make the system fit their individual style. If I published how I trade this system, it would most likely confuse many and create more questions than answers due to the fact that I have traded this way for more that a dozen years. My version of the system is mine and I am comfortable with it. I would encourage you to make yours a "custom Jared model"......as for the Money Management...that is very universal and one of the cornerstones of any system. It is not open for debate if you want to be doing this with your current account this time next year, it simply is how it must be. the only portion that is open within each traders system is whether or not to risk 2.5% or 2% or whatever is within reason for your situation.

Best of luck in your trading pursuits,

Swingtrade65
Plan, Prepare, Execute, Repeat
  • #155
  • Jan 15, 2008 1:33pm Jan 15, 2008 1:33pm
Quoting swingtrade65
Jared,

You are correct, it says that there are 3 sections. I have decided however to not publish the 2 other sections. I think it is extremely important for each trader to design their own trading system within the framework of "Peaks and Valley". Each trader has his or her own comfort level and therefore should make the system fit their individual style. If I published how I trade this system, it would most likely confuse many and create more questions than answers due to the fact that I have traded this way for more that a dozen years. My version of the system is mine and I am comfortable with it. I would encourage you to make yours a "custom Jared model"......as for the Money Management...that is very universal and one of the cornerstones of any system. It is not open for debate if you want to be doing this with your current account this time next year, it simply is how it must be. the only portion that is open within each traders system is whether or not to risk 2.5% or 2% or whatever is within reason for your situation.

Best of luck in your trading pursuits,

Swingtrade65

Your wisdom & expertise is truly appreciated.
Just add my 2 cents as well. I think that is one of the biggest realizations that I had. Was when I truthfully started creating my own plans, ideas, & opinions on the charts & market. Advice from experienced traders is good & allways welcome, but I didnt start to realy improve till I started just doing it myself.
This is not directed at anyone but serves as a reminder to myself.
Thanks again ST65
  • #156
  • Edited 2:20pm Jan 15, 2008 2:19pm | Edited 2:20pm
Remember that exponetial gain thing I mentioned earlier? Here is a chart that shows what I mean. This is vHands, the trading simulator on MT4 (for those wondering what I am talking about go here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=60849 )

I added to the position as it kept making new highs and also moved the stops up to recent valleys along the way. I made a 54% increase in just this one market move alone in less than 3 weeks with very little risk. (no, I didn't know what the market was going to do, this is data from Jan last year) Actually, after the first entry was positive it was zero risk at that point, I just kept moving the stops up and adding more entires.

To help you understand the 4 hour chart:

The blue arrows are where I entered, the yellow arrows (they are within the yellow bar, kinda hard to see) are where I exited, and the blue dotted lines connect the two.

Also the green text shows my profits on my positions. Went from 55k to 85k on this one market move!

Peaks and Valleys rocks!
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  • #157
  • Jan 15, 2008 3:56pm Jan 15, 2008 3:56pm
Quoting swingtrade65
Jared,

You are correct, it says that there are 3 sections. I have decided however to not publish the 2 other sections. I think it is extremely important for each trader to design their own trading system within the framework of "Peaks and Valley". Each trader has his or her own comfort level and therefore should make the system fit their individual style. If I published how I trade this system, it would most likely confuse many and create more questions than answers due to the fact that I have traded this way for more that a dozen years. My version of the system is mine and I am comfortable with it. I would encourage you to make yours a "custom Jared model"......as for the Money Management...that is very universal and one of the cornerstones of any system. It is not open for debate if you want to be doing this with your current account this time next year, it simply is how it must be. the only portion that is open within each traders system is whether or not to risk 2.5% or 2% or whatever is within reason for your situation.

Best of luck in your trading pursuits,

Swingtrade65
Hi Swingtrade65 !

In section 1 of your word document you mentioned to trade 6 currency
pairs from which max. 2 should correlate to each other.

Could you give me a little hint which pairs to choose ?

Thanks in advance and happy pippin

Bernhard
  • #158
  • Edited 10:23pm Jan 15, 2008 9:56pm | Edited 10:23pm
Well, today started out shaky, but ended up pretty good. Here are my trades below. If my math is good, I'm up around 2100 pips which is doing nice things to my account balance. Let's just say the pound, franc, and yen have been good to me this week.

Here's a chart of my GBP/JPY chart which BTW that order earlier was triggered to hit.
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  • #159
  • Jan 15, 2008 11:49pm Jan 15, 2008 11:49pm
Hi all
I dont know why people is not interessed in this concept but i want to ask you something.

I atach a image with some entry and some stop loss and i want to ask what we do in this situation because alsmost of the time stop loss is hit.

Regards
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  • #160
  • Jan 16, 2008 12:07am Jan 16, 2008 12:07am
Quoting justcatalin
Hi all
I dont know why people is not interessed in this concept but i want to ask you something.

I atach a image with some entry and some stop loss and i want to ask what we do in this situation because alsmost of the time stop loss is hit.

Regards
Kevin might have a better answer but here's mine:

It looks like the market is ranging. This strategy doesn't work very well in a ranging market, but it works extremely well in a trending market. What I have found is that after a strong move like is the case in the chart, the market consolidates, or goes into ranging for a period of time untill it decides on a direction. You have to either stay out of the market during ranging, or change your strategy to a ranging strategy (buy low sell high, etc).

With practice you will get a feel for how the currency moves and be able to identify ranging periods easier.
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