for you no indicator traders the rejection of the 138 fib at 210.85 area calls for a retrace to 161 fib at 211.93 area.
Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
- #59,021
- Jan 14, 2008 10:03am Jan 14, 2008 10:03am
- Joined May 2007 | Status: I Love EMAS! | 1,968 Posts
- #59,023
- Jan 14, 2008 10:14am Jan 14, 2008 10:14am
- Joined May 2007 | Status: I Love EMAS! | 1,968 Posts
- #59,025
- Jan 14, 2008 10:21am Jan 14, 2008 10:21am
- Joined May 2007 | Status: I Love EMAS! | 1,968 Posts
- #59,027
- Jan 14, 2008 10:38am Jan 14, 2008 10:38am
- Joined May 2007 | Status: I Love EMAS! | 1,968 Posts
- #59,028
- Jan 14, 2008 10:41am Jan 14, 2008 10:41am
I know there was a previous double-top on the weekly chart around 205.40, and I know Aus and some others were calling for the 206 area, but I honestly don't see anything there (from a monthly standpoint) which would cause price to stop and do a major retrace at that point. I guess what I'm saying is that I don't see a strong bottom bounce occurring until the 200 area, which is a major Fib point. Remember, these are Monthly moves I'm talking about, just to get an idea of the overall trend projections for the future. I'm glad to see some of the same confirmations on your chart as I see on mine.
M2B
When looking at the chart, was think in a smaller tf move. But those have to find the major bottom sooner or later. Which would be your 200.xx your talking about. Thanks for the insight.GLT
fxstman
- #59,029
- Jan 14, 2008 12:24pm Jan 14, 2008 12:24pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,060 Posts
I do believe it's highly likely/possible we'll see 200, which is the 50 Fib, by the end of this month. There are two weeks left in January, RSI has room to move down before becoming OS, and MACD is showing good separation and angle to the downside. Fundamentals will determine if it will move down that quickly or not. At the 200 level I would then expect a major bounce/retracement up to what would then be either the 38.2 Fib (around 220) or the 50 Fib (around 226). Ultimately, we will see GBP/JPY fall down to the rising bullish trendline, which is currently around 173. By the time price intersects with that trendline, in a few months, the trendline could be around the 179 level where there is strong support (a double bottom). What price does at that trendline will determine the overall direction of GBP/JPY for the next couple of years. If it bounces, creating a possible triple bottom, we'll see price run back up to the most recent highs around 250. If it breaks the 179 level and the trendline, it will probably do a full retrace down to 148. Based upon the bearish divergence shown on this chart (the light purple lines on price and MACD), I think 148 could easily be reached, perhaps sometime in 2009. So there's your longer term projections based solely upon technical analysis from someone who doesn't know a whole lot about what he's talking about.
M2B
- #59,030
- Jan 14, 2008 12:30pm Jan 14, 2008 12:30pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Sep 2007 | 4,407 Posts
- #59,031
- Jan 14, 2008 12:31pm Jan 14, 2008 12:31pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Sep 2007 | 4,407 Posts
- #59,032
- Jan 14, 2008 1:10pm Jan 14, 2008 1:10pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,060 Posts
Always appreciate your analysis
pm response
- #59,035
- Jan 14, 2008 1:54pm Jan 14, 2008 1:54pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Sep 2007 | 4,407 Posts
- #59,037
- Jan 14, 2008 2:00pm Jan 14, 2008 2:00pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Seeking Light | 1,059 Posts
Forget the vouch I will take the $$money..Yall guys give me a hard time with it but my trades that I post keep workin I dont understand...but what do I get??? I have been a part of Forex Factory for a while and posted. I thought I could at least have that. I could see if I lost on alot of trades I have not even posted a loss on here from as far as I remember..LOL...ok
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edit-if nothing else works, i hope that smiley convinces u.
- #59,038
- Jan 14, 2008 2:02pm Jan 14, 2008 2:02pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,060 Posts
Forget the vouch I will take the $$money..Yall guys give me a hard time with it but my trades that I post keep workin I dont understand...but what do I get??? I have been a part of Forex Factory for a while and posted. I thought I could at least have that. I could see if I lost on alot of trades I have not even posted a loss on here from as far as I remember..LOL...ok
hey bud...u may want to be careful about the whole vouch thing..... some new people may follow your calls blindly and that spells trouble.... ask m2b and aus...
by the way who is still laughing at auslanco saying 209 is a possibility? not me! but m2b's point is some would not trade corrrectly and benefit from aus analysis, but instead blindly trade his calls and end up losing rather than benefiting....nobody can trade for you....it our own job to trade...... m2b has made the point that 1kt status is not always a blessing..... because there will always be newbies that lose, no matter what.... and they will blame YOU! so careful what u wish for ...but...... you have indeed shown you can trade so...
also, I think you should post charts and analysis and then people can vouch for you based on your analysis, rather than wonder how you came to your conclusions
just a thought
- #59,039
- Jan 14, 2008 2:28pm Jan 14, 2008 2:28pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,060 Posts
gj 1 hour and weekly
on weekly we still in sdowntrend on 1 hour we may be retraceing.... so
you be the judge!
on weekly we still in sdowntrend on 1 hour we may be retraceing.... so
you be the judge!
- #59,040
- Jan 14, 2008 2:33pm Jan 14, 2008 2:33pm
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Symbol | 2,788 Posts
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs