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Best position trade in 2008

  • #1
  • First Post: Jan 14, 2008 12:52pm Jan 14, 2008 12:52pm
Buy Asian currencies(short usd) like usd/sgd,usd/cny,usd/thb,usd/inr,usd/twd,etc. U can find those pairs in Oanda. Why? Because Chinese yuan will accerate its rise throughout this year thus will also affect those Asian currencies. Short usd/cny is almost risk free but it's not profitable in long term because the negative interest is too high and margin requirement is is too much(for Oanda) so short other Asian currencies is good replacement. Just my opinion.
ThinkForex
  • #2
  • Jan 14, 2008 12:59pm Jan 14, 2008 12:59pm
Isn't the market fairly thin on these pairs? Who's buying what you're selling?
I think we do better when the market offers high liquidity. I've not heard of these pairs before, but I'm planning to move to Oanda when I go live. I'm hoping they offer Oil and Gold as well.
Disregard all prognostications.
  • #3
  • Jan 14, 2008 1:01pm Jan 14, 2008 1:01pm
  •  w_z
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: hand over them pips | 61 Posts
they have gold, but not oil
  • #4
  • Jan 14, 2008 1:21pm Jan 14, 2008 1:21pm
Quoting yhboey
Short usd/cny is almost risk free but it's not profitable in long term because the negative interest is too high and margin requirement is is too much(for Oanda)
Incorrect, it's highly profitable. The problem is that most retail Forex traders expect returns like 100% per month with high risk when low risk pairs like USD/CNY can offer 100-200% per year net of interest depending on entry/exit.

It's the perfect compliment to any short-term trader's portfolio.
  • #5
  • Jan 14, 2008 1:29pm Jan 14, 2008 1:29pm
short GBP/USD
You have to look at Micro level. Been selling short since near 2 said was looking down to longtime suppert at 1.975, some recsistent than thru to the fib at 1.96 than some resistance. Done. Ido see a posible one last slight of hand by the man to take up some this week. Than boom the next fib around 1.86. Said it before it happen now its happening, so sticking to my guns.... Funny thing is the high number posters on the board I stated this ranted and raved cause they were long, guess what now those same ones have jumped on the band wagon, typical.
Uk 1/10 gdp of US the US leads them and the US will recover much faster. MICRO. And thats just my longterm opinion on the pair. So far so good
  • #6
  • Jan 14, 2008 1:49pm Jan 14, 2008 1:49pm
  •  w_z
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: hand over them pips | 61 Posts
Quoting yhboey
Short usd/cny is almost risk free but it's not profitable in long term because the negative interest is too high and margin requirement is is too much(for Oanda)
I'd have to partly disagree with this too. I've been shorting this mother since 7.5500, and adding to position every 500 pips. I'm thinking about getting out though, cuz the neg interest just pisses me off and, i'm going to start trading short term.
  • #7
  • Jan 14, 2008 7:55pm Jan 14, 2008 7:55pm
I did a test on my demo account and made 10% or so in a couple of months. When I get home I'll paste some specifics. It was a good trade though the negative carry was notable. I will do another one and then look at doing it on my RL account.
  • #8
  • Jan 14, 2008 9:50pm Jan 14, 2008 9:50pm
Quoting Rogue$Trader
short GBP/USD
You have to look at Micro level. Been selling short since near 2 said was looking down to longtime suppert at 1.975, some recsistent than thru to the fib at 1.96 than some resistance. Done. Ido see a posible one last slight of hand by the man to take up some this week. Than boom the next fib around 1.86. Said it before it happen now its happening, so sticking to my guns.... Funny thing is the high number posters on the board I stated this ranted and raved cause they were long, guess what now those same ones have jumped on the band wagon, typical.
Uk 1/10 gdp of US the US leads them and the US will recover much faster. MICRO. And thats just my longterm opinion on the pair. So far so good


Take a look at GBP's COT data its in for a big upmove. When, I cannot say, but watch for it sometime in the next month.
  • #9
  • Jan 14, 2008 10:19pm Jan 14, 2008 10:19pm
Quoting Marrethiel
I did a test on my demo account and made 10% or so in a couple of months. When I get home I'll paste some specifics. It was a good trade though the negative carry was notable. I will do another one and then look at doing it on my RL account.
34% net of interest since 10/23/07 on a demo, I just let that trade run to test the effects of interest on the pair. USDCNY was at 7.50, now 7.25.
  • #10
  • Jan 16, 2008 2:03am Jan 16, 2008 2:03am
Quoting youalreadykn
34% net of interest since 10/23/07 on a demo, I just let that trade run to test the effects of interest on the pair. USDCNY was at 7.50, now 7.25.
Sounds about right, the demo I did took profit after about 45 days for 25% profit in pips minus 15% interest giving net 9.7%
  • #11
  • Last Post: Jan 22, 2008 1:53pm Jan 22, 2008 1:53pm
To day traders...it doeen metter so much...but swings , I hope EUR drop and after...GO UP until 4° Trimester... some economists believe that USD just recover your power at 4°trimester...

so, lets see


Best Regards,
Marcelo Marques
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