Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

Quoting PipChick

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Do you find skunnys thread a bit cryptic and confusing?
I have been watching his thread and the more I watch it the more I think that keeping it very simple is the key to trading. I began looking at these bat formations and different things but I think I will take all of the "new" things off of my charts and remain trading in the simplest of forms.

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Quoting quecee5

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Just one last thing before I go and party a bit, need to get away from this for awhile and live a little =

Anyway, looking just at pivots, price has gone all the way down to s2 on daily pivot charts. Typically once this happens price will climb all the way back up to challenge the same distance up from the daily pivot which in this case is r2, sounds crazy but it correlates to my ABCD/1234 pattern theory. r2 comes in @ 217.16 which also fits into my price window of 216-218. Price should then turn back to the original trend to complete the wave cycle.

I expect price to chop along then burst up to hit the target, then back down. You know sorta like last week when price burst up to 215.09 before it fell 300 pips. . .

Now if for some reason we get a slew of negative news over the weekend then anything can happen. But hopefully we will get better than expected news because I believe the worst case news is already factored into the price. . .
Just another thing to ponder using my flawed thinking = = , okay going to party like its 1999. . . or 2009, LOL!

http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/pivot-points/gbpjpy-(pivot-points)-200603215764/

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Quoting dagoods

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couldnt agree more.... those fibs are magical though...want that in my arsenal..... he really is a genius that skunny..... if u study his charts and comments... but he says over and over to keep it simple...i'm going to actually listen yes it is cryptic and confusing....but i think it is on purpose...so u learn better by doing rather than spoon fed....but so far what he taught is simple trend line as per Skunny defined plus fib swings wait for penetration which is a true leading indicator of price!!! and then boom no brainer trade...and if it doesnt go yet u take the retrace also..and profit in both directions..... not that hard really... fits right in to what i am doing already..... and if u watch PA closely enough u could probably predict anyway..... but..... the summary helps a lot to cut out the bs posts.... if u just read that a few pages back a pdf was posted anyone can click the paperclip on skunny thread and get it.... so yes a bit confusing and we should cut out the bull and stick to basics..valid tls plus skunny fib method = moley quail and unbeleivably cool and worthwhile IMHO

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Quoting PipChick

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I see the abc pattern on the 1 hr chart and it is pretty classic.... but it concerns me a bit. It is counter trend and the probability is 50/50. It will be great if the abc works out but it will suck if the price decides to go with the trend and violate the abc pattern. Just bringing another perspective into it.Tight stops would be the key for this counter trend abc pattern. And as a reminder, we are trading under the 5 ema on the 4 hr. Sunday nights are wicked and unpredictable. I have seen perfect setups violated on sunday nights.

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Quoting rgitt05

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Look back in history GBPJPY dropped approximately 10,170 pips between the month of 8/1/1992 and 8/1/1993.

On 8/92 GBPJPY stopped around 250.00 range with 76.8 retracement from 286.13 on 8/90, and dropped 10,170 pips around 147.60.

Do anyone know the economic conditions of the GBP,USD, and JPY during the 1992 and 1993?

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Quoting forexnovice

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Price Action around the 50 fib will show us whether we will see any major retracement, lower lows or a ranging week. Good Night all.

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Quoting fer

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just the way i have drawn my fibs on 1hr chart (diff from yours)

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Quoting birdt

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Look up Japan's Lost Decade.

In a nutshell, Japan's asset and equity market bubble(s) (built on borrowed money) burst spectacularly, with Nikkei falling from 40,000 in 1989 to finding a bottom at 15,000 in 1992. The Nikkei is at 14100 now. Despite BoJ reducing interest rates to the floor they have failed to stimulate the economy.

Japan is a major exporter to the US so a recession there will have a knock on effect on the Japanese economy, but the situation is nowhere near as bad as it was then, but there are parallels - but on the other side of the Pacific and in the UK.

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Quoting quecee5

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Here's is what my flawed thinking is showing me after looking at GJ's chart in the most simplistic manner I could with a naked 1hr chart, call it my Que senses, ROTFLMAO!

Looks like we are looking at a perfect 1234 pattern or as some would call it ABCD pattern. Therefore this is what I am expecting starting next week. . .

Looking at the swing low and high from the end of the fall, let's call that (A) (212.05) and (B) (214.09) and (C) 212.76 in an ABCD/1234 pattern price should retrace at least 61.8% (C) before heading up to the (D) extension, which could be 1.618, 2.000 or 2.618.

Okay, lets test this theory out. . .

((B-A) x 61.8) - B = C
((214.05 - 212.09) x 61.8%) - 214.09 = 212.87, price went down to 212.76 before the end of Friday's close according to my charts, okay so far it's following this theory. . .

Now the D extension should either go to 1.618, 2.000 or 2.618 fib ext. before heading back down to complete this C wave. So lets take a look at where price could go. . .

((B-A) x 1.618) + C = D
((214.09-212.05) x 1.618) + 212.76 = 216.05
or
((B-A) x 1.618) + C = D
((214.09-212.05) x 2.000) + 212.76 = 216.84
or
((B-A) x 2.618 + C = D
((214.09-212.05) x 2.618) + 212.76 = 218.10

Anyone using fibs should be able to project price by clicking on the ABC price and get an estimate of where price could go if this is a true ABCD or 1234 pattern. . .

If anyone follows daily pivots, r1 =215.79, r2 = 217.12 and r3 = 218.27 which are very close to my ABCD pattern ext. Hmmmmmmm, If price goes up it has to go somewhere, Hmmmmmm. .

I guess we will see starting 2morrow. As always just another way of looking at things from a different perspective. I bought the (C) dip at the close seemed pretty low risk. I have a 50 pip stop loss but I think we won't see it that low. . .

Take a look at GU's monthly chart which looks similar to GJ's, Looking at GU's 4hr chart it looks like it has room to move up to at least 1.9647 before meeting trend line resistance if it has bottomed out for now. Also, looking at a 4hr UJ chart looks like UJ could move up and test 110.46 before meeting resistance (DOW was down over 260 points Friday and UJ stood pretty stern @ 108.83 at the close, hmmmmmmm)

Since both GU and UJ have been moving in the same direction lately we could easily calculate where price could go (110.46 x 1.9647 = 217.02), falls in line with all the numbers calculated above. . .Hmmmmmmmmm!

Not saying price couldn't go the other way but sure looks like it has all the signs of going back up before going back down.

Again this is my flawed thinking but just something else to ponder!

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Quoting quecee5

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Well looks like price will take a couple of sessions to chop higher. Already looks to be consolidating. . .

See you all during London/NY session, lets see where price is headed then =

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Quoting PipChick

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Do you find skunnys thread a bit cryptic and confusing?
I have been watching his thread and the more I watch it the more I think that keeping it very simple is the key to trading. I began looking at these bat formations and different things but I think I will take all of the "new" things off of my charts and remain trading in the simplest of forms.

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Quoting moneymagnet

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been checking it out real hard pc and i like what i c.

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Quoting doughboi

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IMO, traders that overanalyze never profit,......i guess you have to stick to your plan. keep it simple but not too simple,....

half the people that have all these big analysis probally never trade them

a bunch of mess on your charts will always contradict one another

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Quoting pipchaser

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we have a symm triangle on M15

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Quoting rgitt05

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It looks like the USDJPY is ready to break friday's low 108.62
meaning GBPJPY will follow...

Watchout for the GBPJPY low friday 211.98




rgitt05

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