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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #58,901
  • Jan 12, 2008 5:21pm Jan 12, 2008 5:21pm
Quoting quecee5
Here's is what my flawed thinking is showing me after looking at GJ's chart in the most simplistic manner I could with a naked 1hr chart, call it my Que senses, ROTFLMAO!

Looks like we are looking at a perfect 1234 pattern or as some would call it ABCD pattern. Therefore this is what I am expecting starting next week. . .

Looking at the swing low and high from the end of the fall, let's call that (A) (212.05) and (B) (214.09) and (C) 212.76 in an ABCD/1234 pattern price should retrace at least 61.8% (C) before heading up to the (D) extension, which could be 1.618, 2.000 or 2.618.

Okay, lets test this theory out. . .

((B-A) x 61.8) - B = C
((214.05 - 212.09) x 61.8%) - 214.09 = 212.87, price went down to 212.76 before the end of Friday's close according to my charts, okay so far it's following this theory. . .

Now the D extension should either go to 1.618, 2.000 or 2.618 fib ext. before heading back down to complete this C wave. So lets take a look at where price could go. . .

((B-A) x 1.618) + C = D
((214.09-212.05) x 1.618) + 212.76 = 216.05
or
((B-A) x 1.618) + C = D
((214.09-212.05) x 2.000) + 212.76 = 216.84
or
((B-A) x 2.618 + C = D
((214.09-212.05) x 2.618) + 212.76 = 218.10

Anyone using fibs should be able to project price by clicking on the ABC price and get an estimate of where price could go if this is a true ABCD or 1234 pattern. . .

If anyone follows daily pivots, r1 =215.79, r2 = 217.12 and r3 = 218.27 which are very close to my ABCD pattern ext. Hmmmmmmm, If price goes up it has to go somewhere, Hmmmmmm. .

I guess we will see starting 2morrow. As always just another way of looking at things from a different perspective. I bought the (C) dip at the close seemed pretty low risk. I have a 50 pip stop loss but I think we won't see it that low. . .

Take a look at GU's monthly chart which looks similar to GJ's, Looking at GU's 4hr chart it looks like it has room to move up to at least 1.9647 before meeting trend line resistance if it has bottomed out for now. Also, looking at a 4hr UJ chart looks like UJ could move up and test 110.46 before meeting resistance (DOW was down over 260 points Friday and UJ stood pretty stern @ 108.83 at the close, hmmmmmmm)

Since both GU and UJ have been moving in the same direction lately we could easily calculate where price could go (110.46 x 1.9647 = 217.02), falls in line with all the numbers calculated above. . .Hmmmmmmmmm!

Not saying price couldn't go the other way but sure looks like it has all the signs of going back up before going back down.

Again this is my flawed thinking but just something else to ponder!
Very nice Que! Another way to get yourprice projection is to use the fib exp tool on mt4.
  • #58,902
  • Jan 12, 2008 5:23pm Jan 12, 2008 5:23pm
Quoting kenneith
PC this bullish bat will come into play when price will touch bottom of the red rectangle so we will have to wait. By the way thanks for the detailed annalysis.
YW Kennieth. Can you explain the bullish bat? What do you mean by it will come into play when price touches the bottom? Is that whenit usually reverses? I have seen the pattern dissappear once the bottom was touched and the price continue in the direction and not reverse.
  • #58,903
  • Jan 12, 2008 5:28pm Jan 12, 2008 5:28pm
Quoting PipChick
Very nice Que! Another way to get yourprice projection is to use the fib exp tool on mt4.
Yep, but I don't use mt4. . .
  • #58,904
  • Jan 12, 2008 6:03pm Jan 12, 2008 6:03pm
Just one last thing before I go and party a bit, need to get away from this for awhile and live a little =

Anyway, looking just at pivots, price has gone all the way down to s2 on daily pivot charts. Typically once this happens price will climb all the way back up to challenge the same distance up from the daily pivot which in this case is r2, sounds crazy but it correlates to my ABCD/1234 pattern theory. r2 comes in @ 217.16 which also fits into my price window of 216-218. Price should then turn back to the original trend to complete the wave cycle.

I expect price to chop along then burst up to hit the target, then back down. You know sorta like last week when price burst up to 215.09 before it fell 300 pips. . .

Now if for some reason we get a slew of negative news over the weekend then anything can happen. But hopefully we will get better than expected news because I believe the worst case news is already factored into the price. . .
Just another thing to ponder using my flawed thinking = = , okay going to party like its 1999. . . or 2009, LOL!

http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/pivot-points/gbpjpy-(pivot-points)-200603215764/
  • #58,905
  • Jan 12, 2008 6:23pm Jan 12, 2008 6:23pm
Quoting quecee5
Here's is what my flawed thinking is showing me after looking at GJ's chart in the most simplistic manner I could with a naked 1hr chart, call it my Que senses, ROTFLMAO!

Looks like we are looking at a perfect 1234 pattern or as some would call it ABCD pattern. Therefore this is what I am expecting starting next week. . .

Looking at the swing low and high from the end of the fall, let's call that (A) (212.05) and (B) (214.09) and (C) 212.76 in an ABCD/1234 pattern price should retrace at least 61.8% (C) before heading up to the (D) extension, which could be 1.618, 2.000 or 2.618.

Okay, lets test this theory out. . .

((B-A) x 61.8) - B = C
((214.05 - 212.09) x 61.8%) - 214.09 = 212.87, price went down to 212.76 before the end of Friday's close according to my charts, okay so far it's following this theory. . .

Now the D extension should either go to 1.618, 2.000 or 2.618 fib ext. before heading back down to complete this C wave. So lets take a look at where price could go. . .

((B-A) x 1.618) + C = D
((214.09-212.05) x 1.618) + 212.76 = 216.05
or
((B-A) x 1.618) + C = D
((214.09-212.05) x 2.000) + 212.76 = 216.84
or
((B-A) x 2.618 + C = D
((214.09-212.05) x 2.618) + 212.76 = 218.10

Anyone using fibs should be able to project price by clicking on the ABC price and get an estimate of where price could go if this is a true ABCD or 1234 pattern. . .

If anyone follows daily pivots, r1 =215.79, r2 = 217.12 and r3 = 218.27 which are very close to my ABCD pattern ext. Hmmmmmmm, If price goes up it has to go somewhere, Hmmmmmm. .

I guess we will see starting 2morrow. As always just another way of looking at things from a different perspective. I bought the (C) dip at the close seemed pretty low risk. I have a 50 pip stop loss but I think we won't see it that low. . .

Take a look at GU's monthly chart which looks similar to GJ's, Looking at GU's 4hr chart it looks like it has room to move up to at least 1.9647 before meeting trend line resistance if it has bottomed out for now. Also, looking at a 4hr UJ chart looks like UJ could move up and test 110.46 before meeting resistance (DOW was down over 260 points Friday and UJ stood pretty stern @ 108.83 at the close, hmmmmmmm)

Since both GU and UJ have been moving in the same direction lately we could easily calculate where price could go (110.46 x 1.9647 = 217.02), falls in line with all the numbers calculated above. . .Hmmmmmmmmm!

Not saying price couldn't go the other way but sure looks like it has all the signs of going back up before going back down.

Again this is my flawed thinking but just something else to ponder!
wayyyy to much thinking for me
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #58,906
  • Jan 12, 2008 7:32pm Jan 12, 2008 7:32pm
Quoting moneymagnet
wayyyy to much thinking for me
Yep, funny how my flawed mind works, that's why I'm on my way out to party a bit to get away from this stuff. Once I return I will be working on where price is headed when it comes back down from going up. . .

Already long, gotta a general idea where I'm going to get short now need to know how far it could go down to possibly get long for the 4th wave up after completing wave C- stay tuned! =

Brain on steroids =
  • #58,907
  • Jan 12, 2008 7:55pm Jan 12, 2008 7:55pm
Quoting quecee5
Yep, funny how my flawed mind works, that's why I'm on my way out to party a bit to get away from this stuff. Once I return I will be working on where price is headed when it comes back down from going up. . .

Already long, gotta a general idea where I'm going to get short now need to know how far it could go down to possibly get long for the 4th wave up after completing wave C- stay tuned! =

Brain on steroids =
Wow. Have you ever thought about giving trade calls? Have a good party-time!
  • #58,908
  • Jan 12, 2008 7:57pm Jan 12, 2008 7:57pm
Quoting ovaforty
Oanda is showing the daily close at 212.97. Support from the 200 sma on the weekly chart is 212.87. The 38 fib and the 200 sma are sitting together.
Hey, you took my picture I posted at the end of the year.
  • #58,909
  • Jan 12, 2008 8:03pm Jan 12, 2008 8:03pm
Quoting PipChick
MM..I have been watching these bat formations (thanks to M2B for bringing them to my attention) I have noticed that they are pretty true especially on the larger time frames. The smaller time frames (15 and 30) will give you retrace info if you like to scalp.
A comment on this from M2B would be great!
But remember Pipchick, it is just predicting that somewhere with-in the box it will become bullish and go up. The bottom of the box is at 204.32 (at least that's how I understand it) I'm sure you have, but did you see that there is the same on the 1H, 4H, daily as well. The box all in different places. Next week could be interesting.

fxstman
  • #58,910
  • Jan 12, 2008 9:02pm Jan 12, 2008 9:02pm
Quoting fxstman
Hey, you took my picture I posted at the end of the year.
yeah, i stole your pic. thanx...I am a woody woodpecker fan
  • #58,911
  • Jan 12, 2008 9:11pm Jan 12, 2008 9:11pm
Quoting ovaforty
yeah, i stole your pic. thanx...I am a woody woodpecker fan
same here.

GLT
  • #58,912
  • Jan 12, 2008 9:24pm Jan 12, 2008 9:24pm
Anyone who has not yet read the skunny thread is truly missing out IMHO.... especially new people to forex


Indicator Free Trading - Skunny
  • #58,913
  • Edited 11:16pm Jan 12, 2008 10:53pm | Edited 11:16pm
Look back in history GBPJPY dropped approximately 10,170 pips between the month of 8/1/1992 and 8/1/1993.

On 8/92 GBPJPY stopped around 250.00 range with 76.8 retracement from 286.13 on 8/90, and dropped 10,170 pips around 147.60.

Do anyone know the economic conditions of the GBP,USD, and JPY during the 1992 and 1993?

On 7/1/2007, GBPJPY again rejected the 76.8 retracement from 8/1/1990...This is the second time the pair hit around 250 range..

Is GBPJPY in a cycle for another 10,000 pips drop?


History do repeat itself!!

You be the judge!!



rgitt05

My opinion will be GBPJPY drop to 207 range before a retracement or drop further...
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[
  • #58,914
  • Jan 13, 2008 2:31am Jan 13, 2008 2:31am
Quoting quecee5
Just one last thing before I go and party a bit, need to get away from this for awhile and live a little =

Anyway, looking just at pivots, price has gone all the way down to s2 on daily pivot charts. Typically once this happens price will climb all the way back up to challenge the same distance up from the daily pivot which in this case is r2, sounds crazy but it correlates to my ABCD/1234 pattern theory. r2 comes in @ 217.16 which also fits into my price window of 216-218. Price should then turn back to the original trend to complete the wave cycle.

I expect price to chop along then burst up to hit the target, then back down. You know sorta like last week when price burst up to 215.09 before it fell 300 pips. . .

Now if for some reason we get a slew of negative news over the weekend then anything can happen. But hopefully we will get better than expected news because I believe the worst case news is already factored into the price. . .
Just another thing to ponder using my flawed thinking = = , okay going to party like its 1999. . . or 2009, LOL!

http://www.actionforex.com/technical-analysis/pivot-points/gbpjpy-(pivot-points)-200603215764/
Flawed as in

F-inely
L-ined
A-out
W-ith
E-ducational
D-erivatives

Great Analysis!

Rock da Party!!!
  • #58,915
  • Jan 13, 2008 3:08am Jan 13, 2008 3:08am
Quoting moneymagnet
weekly bullish bat with a range of 1100 pips from top of box to bottom. LOL. someone test this and let me know the results. i am going long in my demo just to see what happens
Hello MM, here is the fib %s for the Bat Pattern. I belive the pattern is invalid already.
Hope this help.
Attached Image
  • #58,916
  • Jan 13, 2008 3:21am Jan 13, 2008 3:21am
I am new to Forex trading and have developed an exit strategy that I would like to get some feedback on. I am an experienced index and options trader and have developed an exit strategy for index and options trades that seems to work well. However, currency trading is a whole different world and seems to require much more attention as moves a very quick in either direction. My exit strategy for stock and index options will not work for currencies.

I am using a practice account trading mini-lots ($100 margin versus full lots requiring $1000 margin). I pretty much depend on technical analysis for my currency trades and try to stay away from trading as much as possible during US market hours because I find the volatility and uncertainty much higher. I particularly avoid three hours before US market open because it is a minefield.

I have a pretty reliable set of technical indicators that increase the probability that a trade will be profitable and give me an entry point that often shows a profit within a few minutes of my entry. I only do long trades (short trades I have found to be very unpredictable while long trade opportunities tend to develop slowly and build momentum).

However, I find myself getting out of the trades with a very small profit of 2 or 3 Pips. When I close out a trade, usually within minutes of entry, I begin to track the price movement and find that in 90% of the trades they go much higher (in the 8 to 100 Pip range). But fearing that if I hold out for a higher gain, I risk getting into a losing position that can go as low as minus 30 or 40 Pips.

So far, in every case where the position has gone as low as minus 30 or 40 Pips, the position has come back to profitability (it may take up to 8 hours). The reason is that my system is pretty reliable about finding extremely oversold conditions. But a few big losers have the potential to wipe out my gains on the other end because they are so small. On the other hand, I had some big losses (250 and 80 Pips) and still within three days of trading, I still managed to be profitable, averaging about 9 trades per 24-hour period. But I feel that if I let me profits run, I can do much better.

The other day, I decided to let the profits run on two positions by setting a limit order of 12 Pips ($120 profit on a mini contract requiring $100 margin) on one contract and 95 Pips on another and just walking away from my computer to see what happened (not babysitting the positions). Within about 20 minutes the position with the 12 Pip limit hit and was automatically closed. The other was at +6 ($60 profit), so I closed that manually because I now had a total of $180 for both positions, meeting my target gain of around $80 per position. I was encouraged because I was able to capture a much larger gain.

So, I developed an exit strategy based on buying 10 mini-contracts per trade and selling them off as I reach various targets. The way it works is that when my first target (T1) hits 5 Pips and then retraces back to 2.5 Pips, I sell 5 mini-contracts. If it retraces back to 0 Pips (break-even), I sell the remaining 5 Pips for a net 1.25% profit on the position. If the price does not retrace, I hold the position and wait for it to reach my second target (T2) = 8 Pips.

If the price hits my second target (T2) = 8 Pips and retraces back to 5 Pips, I sell 5 mini-contracts. If the price retraces back to 2.5, I sell the remaining 5 mini-contracts for a net profit on the trade of 3.75%.

If the price hits my third target (T3) = 15 Pips, I use 8 Pips and 5 Pips as my retrace exit points for a 6.5% gain.

I have a list of targets that continues in this way using the previous two targets on retracements as the exit points.

If the price moves up to my T8 target, for example, which equals 100 Pips, then I sell 5 contracts at T7 = 80 Pips and 5 mini-contracts at T6 = 60 Pips for a 70% net gain on the position.

Is this a reasonable system for attempting to capture the maximum potential gain? I would appreciate any thoughts that members may have on this strategy. It looks good on paper (at least to me), but I wonder if there are flaws that I am not seeing.
  • #58,917
  • Jan 13, 2008 3:30am Jan 13, 2008 3:30am
anything that works is good.... have u tested it on mt4 strategy tester? if not try the metaquotes threads for help...maybe someone can help u test your system...... my experience is just like u said currecies move much faster and harder than stocks/equities... maybe you should try a higher timeframe..... and test and see if your stratedgy is still valid....most bigtime traders (institutions etc.) use 1 hour and above only and consider the rest only noise.....however some have proven they can scalp effectively on as low as 5 min tf but for me its not my style..... as far as mulstiple lots again not my style and cant help u there.... i'm more of a semi-martingale kinda guy.... currencies are much faster and trickier than stocks and can hurt ya bad fast if u are not carefu... good MM and good sl placement is the key IMHO..... skunny indicator free trading thread is great read.... i know u have experience but still e1 should read it.... learn about s/r trednlines and where u can trade safely with small sls and u can be more confident IMHO hope this helps if not sorry best i can do..
  • #58,918
  • Jan 13, 2008 8:16am Jan 13, 2008 8:16am
Quoting rnollman
Is this a reasonable system for attempting to capture the maximum potential gain? I would appreciate any thoughts that members may have on this strategy. It looks good on paper (at least to me), but I wonder if there are flaws that I am not seeing.
If it works for you, use it, but I don't think it is capturing maximum gains because the movement of different pairs varies. You targets could get hit in a heart beat on irregular trade activity, so you will be getting in and out too often and wasting pips on the spread with your broker (assuming you have a spread vs per trade pricing) I think the real gains are made when you get on the right side of larger moves. You noticed that a loser can turn into a winner for no real measruable reason; I have made the most money on some of those trades. I don't time the bottom exactly, but I know a pair is que for a reversal...it just takes patience to wait it out. Getting in and out too rapidly is not a strategy I do other than for a quick scalp on occasion where it's obviouly going to pop 10 pips or so.

Lately themarket has been tight, and lacking follow through on any moves, the YEN pair and CHF pairs excluded, but it's been a grind, so perhaps you strategy is suited for that trading environment. Let us know how it works out.
  • #58,919
  • Jan 13, 2008 8:45am Jan 13, 2008 8:45am
A look at usdx 8hr chart, on the verge of breakdown or strong rally.
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #58,920
  • Jan 13, 2008 10:12am Jan 13, 2008 10:12am
Quoting fxstman
But remember Pipchick, it is just predicting that somewhere with-in the box it will become bullish and go up. The bottom of the box is at 204.32 (at least that's how I understand it) I'm sure you have, but did you see that there is the same on the 1H, 4H, daily as well. The box all in different places. Next week could be interesting.

fxstman
Good point fxstman. Im just starting to look into these formations. Thanks for bringing my attention to that.
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