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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #58,841
  • Jan 12, 2008 3:04am Jan 12, 2008 3:04am
Quoting moneymagnet
weekly bullish bat with a range of 1100 pips from top of box to bottom. LOL. someone test this and let me know the results. i am going long in my demo just to see what happens
MM..I have been watching these bat formations (thanks to M2B for bringing them to my attention) I have noticed that they are pretty true especially on the larger time frames. The smaller time frames (15 and 30) will give you retrace info if you like to scalp.
A comment on this from M2B would be great!
  • #58,842
  • Jan 12, 2008 3:24am Jan 12, 2008 3:24am
This is what I was waiting on last week:

My monthly charts go back to 1978. If you fib from the hi in 1978 to the lo in 1994, you will see that price bounced off of the 61.8 on fri. This is where I exited shorts and set longs (which I exited before the close fri)We have an ABC pattern here so if the 61.8 (fri lo)on the monthly chart is not broken, the uptrend will most likely resume. Tie this in with the weekly bull bat that MM mentioned and it gives us an idea of where we MAY be trading next week. BUT.................If the 61.8 (fri lo) is broken and holds below this coming week, then we will most likely head to the 50% monthly fib at 199.58.Then, it will be "sell the failures time instead of buying the dips. Just another way to look at the charts.Also, when it hit the Lo on fri, a bull bat formed on the 15, 30, 1hr and 4 hr charts immediately upon the bounce off the lo.(61.8 monthly chart.)And we now have a bull bat on the weekly. hmmmmmmmmm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #58,843
  • Jan 12, 2008 4:57am Jan 12, 2008 4:57am
Quoting PipChick
This is what I was waiting on last week:

My monthly charts go back to 1978. If you fib from the hi in 1978 to the lo in 1994, you will see that price bounced off of the 61.8 on fri. This is where I exited shorts and set longs (which I exited before the close fri)We have an ABC pattern here so if the 61.8 (fri lo)on the monthly chart is not broken, the uptrend will most likely resume. Tie this in with the weekly bull bat that MM mentioned and it gives us an idea of where we MAY be trading next week. BUT.................If the 61.8 (fri lo) is broken and holds below this coming week, then we will most likely head to the 50% monthly fib at 199.58.Then, it will be "sell the failures time instead of buying the dips. Just another way to look at the charts.Also, when it hit the Lo on fri, a bull bat formed on the 15, 30, 1hr and 4 hr charts immediately upon the bounce off the lo.(61.8 monthly chart.)And we now have a bull bat on the weekly. hmmmmmmmmm
Good job , great observation, with the line drawn at 211.79 looking forward to the next couple weeks to see how this plays out.
Whats the yellow line ?
  • #58,844
  • Edited 8:14am Jan 12, 2008 6:30am | Edited 8:14am
I have also drawn 3 different fibs from previous and current swing highs and swing lows on the monthly charts. We will know a lot more when see the current monthly candle close. On my monthly chart the Brown sma is the 55 sma, and is sitting at 209.76 for now, sloping upwards but flattening out. It has crossed upwards of the 100 sma(aqua), 200 sma (red), 250 sma (lime green). Price is below the 300 sma (pink), which is sitting at the neckline (head and shoulder) area around 217.33 area. This is showing that we have been in a long term uptrend for some time. The price may dip down a bit to touch the brown 55 sma at the 210 area. Or it may respect this 38 fib and retrace to the 300 sma. A monthly close above this fib would support Pipchick's last post.

All moms are still quite bearish in this chart.
CCI is -217 (lime green) which is extremely oversold, and denotes a strong downtrend.
RSI is 40.75, (blue) which is bearish but not yet oversold.

ATR is is high which shows that volatility is present. A low ATR denotes range trade. A peak of the ATR would signal reversal of trend. But it is a lagging indicator and might not show until after the fact.

If I zoom out i see 5 waves up on my Zigzag indicator to 251. If this is an ABC pattern correction, then we are in the 1st wave down. When it finally completes, we will see a second wave up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: monthly geppy.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #58,845
  • Jan 12, 2008 6:32am Jan 12, 2008 6:32am
Quoting PipChick
This is what I was waiting on last week:

My monthly charts go back to 1978. If you fib from the hi in 1978 to the lo in 1994, you will see that price bounced off of the 61.8 on fri. This is where I exited shorts and set longs (which I exited before the close fri)We have an ABC pattern here so if the 61.8 (fri lo)on the monthly chart is not broken, the uptrend will most likely resume. Tie this in with the weekly bull bat that MM mentioned and it gives us an idea of where we MAY be trading next week. BUT.................If the 61.8 (fri lo) is broken and holds below this coming week, then we will most likely head to the 50% monthly fib at 199.58.Then, it will be "sell the failures time instead of buying the dips. Just another way to look at the charts.Also, when it hit the Lo on fri, a bull bat formed on the 15, 30, 1hr and 4 hr charts immediately upon the bounce off the lo.(61.8 monthly chart.)And we now have a bull bat on the weekly. hmmmmmmmmm
Your observation based on the monthly chart made me ponder.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #58,846
  • Jan 12, 2008 7:37am Jan 12, 2008 7:37am
Quoting lilpip
Good job , great observation, with the line drawn at 211.79 looking forward to the next couple weeks to see how this plays out.
Whats the yellow line ?
The yellow line is the 200 ema. If the price opens below the 200 ema next month and the 50 (red) and 200 (yellow) ema's cross, that is considered the cross of death and the pair will most likely continue down.
  • #58,847
  • Jan 12, 2008 7:42am Jan 12, 2008 7:42am
Quoting ovaforty
I have also drawns 3 different fibs from previous and current swing highs and swing lows on the monthly charts. We will know a lot more when see the current monthly candle close. On my monthly chart the Brown sma is the 55 sma, and is sitting at 209.76 for now, sloping upwards but flattening out. It has crossed upwards of the 100 sma(aqua), 200 sma (red), 250 sma (lime green). Price is below the 300 sma (pink), which is sitting at the neckline (head and shoulder) area around 217.33 area. This is showing that we have been in a long term uptrend for some time. The price may dip down a bit to touch the brown 55 sma at the 210 area. Or it may respect this 38 fib and retrace to the 300 sma. A monthly close above this fib would support Pipchick's last post.

All moms are still quite bearish in this chart.
CCI is -217 (lime green) which is extremely oversold, and denotes a strong downtrend.
RSI is 40.75, (blue) which is bearish but not yet oversold.

ATR is is high which shows that volatility is present. A low ATR denotes range trade. A peak of the ATR would signal reversal of trend. But it is a lagging indicator and might not show until after the fact.

If I zoom out i see 5 waves up on my Zigzag indicator to 251. If this is an ABC pattern correction, then we are in the 1st wave down. When it finally completes, we will see a second wave up.
Very complete analysis ovaforty. Could you answer a few questions for me please. Which line is the ATR? Could you show a chart of the zigzag you are talking about with a little explanation? Greatly appreciated.
  • #58,848
  • Jan 12, 2008 7:43am Jan 12, 2008 7:43am
Seems like the weekends are when we all do our best analysis!
  • #58,849
  • Jan 12, 2008 7:46am Jan 12, 2008 7:46am
Here is the weekly chart analysis:

Weekly close respected the 200 sma (red).
The 22 sma (green) is sloping downward and has crossed the 55 sma (brown). This is bearish. The 22 sma is sloping down to meet the rising 100 sma (aqua).

The 5 sma high and low channel is sloping down to meet the rising 150 sma (teal colored). The 5 sma low and the 5 sma have broken below the 100 sma but the 5 sma high has not.

The 150 sma and the broken trendline are sitting together forming a strong resistance at 217.32 area for the trendline and 217.70 area for the 150 sma. This also coincides with the neckline of the head and shoulders.

Zigzag indicator is showing 3 waves down from 251 area. When complete, we will see a 4th wave up, or an ABC pattern which also supports Pipchicks last post.

Notice how price was rejected precisely at the 150 sma to form the weekly high on this last candle. This candle is forming a possible reversal pattern after a large bearish candle. Next weekly candle will show us whether or not the reversal pattern has completed.

What has bothered me all week, is the 1c mom showing an upward slope (blue). The 5c mom (yellow) is flat, which may signal a weakened trend. We will know more when the new candle is formed. Strong moves are followed by sideways consolidation range, in order to build a base to push either up or down. It is likely that the geppy bulls will draw a line to defend somewhere. Bears will let it retrace up to gain momentum for another break downwards.
For now the bears seem to in control. Market Sentiment and a jittery market will favor the bears in this pair, for now. Fundamentals need to reverse course for a resumption of the uptrend to occur. I dont see it happening yet.
Do you?


10c and 14c ended the week quite bearish. New weekly candle will shed more light.

CCI is oversold at -172. Denotes a strong trend. But it made a lower lower this week after making a lower high. (wedge) It closed above the previous low. New weekly candle will shed light.

RSI is 31.95 bearish but not yet oversold.

ATR is still in upper channel denoting high volatility. It is not showing direction of price movement, only volatility. High ATR denotes high volatility, While a low ATR will indicate a range trade. A sharp peak may denote a change of trend.

I have placed a very small buy at 212.98 with a micro lot that i can let run for a long time without risking margin. If I see a retracement up then it will have been a good entry. If the the price shows a continuation down then i will take a small loss on it. I still have a short open from 213.87, so it is a hedged position.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly geppy.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #58,850
  • Jan 12, 2008 7:46am Jan 12, 2008 7:46am
My thinking is that you can anal-yze this chart 1000 different ways but the real deal is that it moves in a high correlation with the equity markets, Period.

Just my 2 cents~
  • #58,851
  • Jan 12, 2008 7:56am Jan 12, 2008 7:56am
Quoting FXStarShip
My thinking is that you can anal-yze this chart 1000 different ways but the real deal is that it moves in a high correlation with the equity markets, Period.

Just my 2 cents~
I use to think that FX starship but the last month has proved me quite wrong. It does have some coorelation but it also becomes disconnected at times. The last few days the g/j moved tic for tic with the dow but as mentioned above, the last month was disconnected.
  • #58,852
  • Jan 12, 2008 7:58am Jan 12, 2008 7:58am
Quoting PipChick
Very complete analysis ovaforty. Could you answer a few questions for me please. Which line is the ATR? Could you show a chart of the zigzag you are talking about with a little explanation? Greatly appreciated.
The ATR is the pink indicator that is located in the box along with the RSI and CCI.

The ZigZag indicator is the aqua colored line following the price line on the chart.
  • #58,853
  • Jan 12, 2008 7:58am Jan 12, 2008 7:58am
Quoting ovaforty
Here is the weekly chart analysis:

Weekly close respected the 200 sma (red).
The 22 sma (green) is sloping downward and has crossed the 55 sma (brown). This is bearish. The 22 sma is sloping down to meet the rising 100 sma (aqua).

The 5 sma high and low channel is sloping down to meet the rising 150 sma (teal colored). The 5 sma low and the 5 sma have broken below the 100 sma but the 5 sma high has not.

The 150 sma and the broken trendline are sitting together forming a strong resistance at 217.32 area for the trendline and 217.70 area for the 150 sma. This also coincides with the neckline of the head and shoulders.

Zigzag indicator is showing 3 waves down from 251 area. When complete, we will see a 4th wave up, or an ABC pattern which also supports Pipchicks last post.

Notice how price was rejected precisely at the 150 sma to form the weekly high on this last candle. This candle is forming a possible reversal pattern after a large bearish candle. Next weekly candle will show us whether or not the reversal pattern has completed.

What has bothered me all week, is the 1c mom showing an upward slope (blue). The 5c mom (yellow) is flat, which may signal a weakened trend. We will know more when the new candle is formed. Strong moves are followed by sideways consolidation range, in order to build a base to push either up or down. It is likely that the geppy bulls will draw a line to defend somewhere. Bears will let it retrace up to gain momentum for another break downwards.
For now the bears seem to in control. Market Sentiment and a jittery market will favor the bears in this pair, for now. Fundamentals need to reverse course for a resumption of the uptrend to occur. I dont see it happening yet.
Do you?


10c and 14c ended the week quite bearish. New weekly candle will shed more light.

CCI is oversold at -172. Denotes a strong trend. But it made a lower lower this week after making a lower high. (wedge) It closed above the previous low. New weekly candle will shed light.

RSI is 31.95 bearish but not yet oversold.

ATR is still in upper channel denoting high volatility. It is not showing direction of price movement, only volatility. High ATR denotes high volatility, While a low ATR will indicate a range trade. A sharp peak may denote a change of trend.

I have placed a very small buy at 212.98 with a micro lot that i can let run for a long time without risking margin. If I see a retracement up then it will have been a good entry. If the the price shows a continuation down then i will take a small loss on it. I still have a short open from 213.87, so it is a hedged position.
Nice insight ovaforty....gives me other objective ways to look at the pair. Always necessary to think critically and objectively about this pair so we are prepared for either direction. Can you tell me what your settings on your zigzag are? Mine are different than yours.
  • #58,854
  • Jan 12, 2008 7:59am Jan 12, 2008 7:59am
Quoting ovaforty
The ATR is the pink indicator that is located in the box along with the RSI and CCI.

The ZigZag indicator is the aqua colored line following the price line on the chart.
If you click on my chart it will zoom in.
  • #58,855
  • Jan 12, 2008 7:59am Jan 12, 2008 7:59am
Quoting ovaforty
The ATR is the pink indicator that is located in the box along with the RSI and CCI.

The ZigZag indicator is the aqua colored line following the price line on the chart.
Is the ATR one of Aus's indicators that I have missed? If not, would mind posting it?
  • #58,856
  • Jan 12, 2008 8:02am Jan 12, 2008 8:02am
Quoting PipChick
Nice insight ovaforty....gives me other objective ways to look at the pair. Always necessary to think critically and objectively about this pair so we are prepared for either direction. Can you tell me what your settings on your zigzag are? Mine are different than yours.
My zigzag is default mt4 custom indicator list.
  • #58,857
  • Jan 12, 2008 8:03am Jan 12, 2008 8:03am
Quoting ovaforty
If you click on my chart it will zoom in.
I have been researching Harmonics off and on for the last several months (when I have time..lol) what is your take on the bat formations ovaforty?
  • #58,858
  • Jan 12, 2008 8:03am Jan 12, 2008 8:03am
Quoting ovaforty
My zigzag is default mt4 custom indicator list.
TY
  • #58,859
  • Jan 12, 2008 8:08am Jan 12, 2008 8:08am
The G/U has completed the 100% retrace on the daily chart and is headed for the 1.27% fib. Will it make it to the 1.27? Probably not if the inverse h/s on the 1 and 4 hr charts hold with the rt shoulder being at 1.9553. Its possible for negative data to violate the inverse h.s and send the pair further down.
I dont trade this pair much but I use it to guage the g/j ( a little). If price holds above the right shoulder, it will help confirm possible longs on the g/j. If not, the g/j will most like dip further down.
I think this is going to be a fun week in the market.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: SP32-20080112-065816.gif Size: 8 KB
  • #58,860
  • Jan 12, 2008 8:09am Jan 12, 2008 8:09am
Quoting PipChick
I have been researching Harmonics off and on for the last several months (when I have time..lol) what is your take on the bat formations ovaforty?
i am clueless to harmonics. I rely on the other posters to update me on that. That is why this thread is still so relevent and helpful, even though some have quit posting. Others have taken up the slack.


I got my zigzag indicator from the custom indicators list on the navigator. It should be in your navigator.
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