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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #58,801
  • Jan 11, 2008 2:11pm Jan 11, 2008 2:11pm
Added some GBPUSD, too.

I think next week will be a change of sentiment for the pound.

Financials strength...

A game of catch up to the commodities pricing...

we'll see, no biggy either way.
  • #58,802
  • Jan 11, 2008 2:13pm Jan 11, 2008 2:13pm
Go back and look at the gaps between Monday open and prior weeks close (ie. the gap), and see how often it has gapped down around 30 pips. My main broker doesn't open till 2300GMT but others may find this information useful, coupled with the extremely high probability that the gap will be filled shortly after. Could be a nice start to the week. I'd advise you to do your own research on the matter so you can evaluate the risk.
  • #58,803
  • Edited 2:39pm Jan 11, 2008 2:14pm | Edited 2:39pm
Quoting kdoubled01
pivot timeflame displays the pivot, S1,S2,S3 and R1,R2,R3, on your chart.
No, this is what my typical chart looks like, nothing fancy. . .
Based on this chart I would agree with dagoods and say if we see an up it may be limited to 213.90 then back down just because it seems to have broken the uptrend channel. same thing happened yesterday when GJ reached a top @ 215.15. . .
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  • #58,804
  • Jan 11, 2008 2:17pm Jan 11, 2008 2:17pm
Something to ponder over the weekend.
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  • #58,805
  • Jan 11, 2008 2:17pm Jan 11, 2008 2:17pm
Quoting birdt
Go back and look at the gaps between Monday open and prior weeks close (ie. the gap), and see how often it has gapped down around 30 pips. My main broker doesn't open till 2300GMT but others may find this information useful, coupled with the extremely high probability that the gap will be filled shortly after. Could be a nice start to the week. I'd advise you to do your own research on the matter so you can evaluate the risk.

could you post an example chart so we know what u r talking about please? thanks in advance
  • #58,806
  • Jan 11, 2008 2:19pm Jan 11, 2008 2:19pm
Quoting quecee5
No this is what my typical chart looks like, nothing fancy. . .
Based on this chart I would agree with dagoods and say if we see an up it may be limited to 213.90 then back down just because it seems to have broken the uptrend channel. same thing happened yesterday when GJ reached a top @ 215.15. . .

my spidey senses tell me that s3 on my chart is history as well.....bad news for longs...good news for shorts....but u never know.....
  • #58,807
  • Jan 11, 2008 2:22pm Jan 11, 2008 2:22pm
I would suggest not to pick the bottem to newbies including me
  • #58,808
  • Jan 11, 2008 2:25pm Jan 11, 2008 2:25pm
an upmove would be limited to 214.20 as stated earlier....
  • #58,809
  • Jan 11, 2008 2:26pm Jan 11, 2008 2:26pm
Seasons don't fear the reaper. The markets tanking, doom and gloom all around... can't think of a better opportunity to lever into a long position for next week. Who knows??
  • #58,810
  • Jan 11, 2008 2:27pm Jan 11, 2008 2:27pm
weekly bullish bat with a range of 1100 pips from top of box to bottom. LOL. someone test this and let me know the results. i am going long in my demo just to see what happens
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #58,811
  • Jan 11, 2008 2:35pm Jan 11, 2008 2:35pm
Quoting moneymagnet
weekly bullish bat with a range of 1100 pips from top of box to bottom. LOL. someone test this and let me know the results. i am going long in my demo just to see what happens

that one on weekly could take a while to play out IMO will be fun to see though... does price need to go down to bottom of that box first? I will update you on td seq 13 and td 9...until i see one of those on at least the 1 hour tf there is no chance of longs IMO will be a great test of these theories thoguh lets see
  • #58,812
  • Jan 11, 2008 2:35pm Jan 11, 2008 2:35pm
Quoting dagoods
could you post an example chart so we know what u r talking about please? thanks in advance
Look at this chart.


Blue rectangle is the gap between closing price and opening price, approx 30 pips. See the gap is filled within an hour.

Go back and look at the gaps, see if there is a pattern. See pattern, evaluate risk, if found to be acceptable; exploit it.

There is a risk that it could gap up. Any stops you have in place within the gap will not be honoured at that level, but at opening price. But then, the gap often fills, I wouldn't say they always do but the probability is very high. I don't have the exact stats, but I've been back a few years on GBPJPY charts and I find the risk to be acceptable. Also, consider the risk of something occurring over the weekend - there's much more chance of something bad happening (eg. terrorist attack, more credit woes, earthquake etc..) which will likely cause a larger gap down, than a positive news event which will boost the carry trade/decrease value of Yen/increase value of GBP, causing a large gap up.

It's just an idea that could have profit potential in the long term.
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  • #58,813
  • Jan 11, 2008 2:35pm Jan 11, 2008 2:35pm
We all realize the uncanny ability for retracements to the 5ma (e or s)
on all time frames usually within 2 or three candles. It's hard to find
exceptions to this in the charts.

This is seen even in the weekly with either the price retreating to meet the
ma or the ma over several TFs averaging its way towards the price action
if things go sideways. Either way, the past two weeks big drop may necessarily
be followed by a pull back so we may not have seen the last of 217.

I closed my short at 212.80.

Make it a safe weekend to all.

Dr. D.
  • #58,814
  • Jan 11, 2008 2:37pm Jan 11, 2008 2:37pm
Quoting moneymagnet
weekly bullish bat with a range of 1100 pips from top of box to bottom. LOL. someone test this and let me know the results. i am going long in my demo just to see what happens
Actually, the weekly and monthly chart does make you pounder. . .
  • #58,815
  • Jan 11, 2008 2:39pm Jan 11, 2008 2:39pm
Markam did say 210! and its in sight
  • #58,816
  • Jan 11, 2008 2:41pm Jan 11, 2008 2:41pm
Looks like the Dow has been in trouble since noon EST and will close in 20 minutes. It's down by 261 points as I write this, but we could see some last minute bargain hunters.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/11/mark...ion=2008011114

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  • #58,817
  • Jan 11, 2008 2:43pm Jan 11, 2008 2:43pm
Quoting pip_designer
Something to ponder over the weekend.
hmmmmmmmmm, does look tempting -
That 38% weeekly/monthly fib could it be the bottom?????? -
  • #58,818
  • Jan 11, 2008 2:43pm Jan 11, 2008 2:43pm
Quoting birdt
Look at this chart.


Blue rectangle is the gap between closing price and opening price, approx 30 pips. See the gap is filled within an hour.

Go back and look at the gaps, see if there is a pattern. See pattern, evaluate risk, if found to be acceptable; exploit it.

There is a risk that it could gap up. Any stops you have in place within the gap will not be honoured at that level, but at opening price. But then, the gap often fills, I wouldn't say they always do but the probability is very high. I don't have the exact stats, but I've been back a few years on GBPJPY charts and I find the risk to be acceptable. Also, consider the risk of something occurring over the weekend - there's much more chance of something bad happening (eg. terrorist attack, more credit woes, earthquake etc..) which will likely cause a larger gap down, than a positive news event which will boost the carry trade/decrease value of Yen/increase value of GBP, causing a large gap up.

It's just an idea that could have profit potential in the long term.

yes somneone sent a link to a website with a video also....the vid said that BIG LONG cadles are in fact gaps in forex...interesting.....
  • #58,819
  • Jan 11, 2008 2:44pm Jan 11, 2008 2:44pm
Quoting moneymagnet
weekly bullish bat with a range of 1100 pips from top of box to bottom. LOL. someone test this and let me know the results. i am going long in my demo just to see what happens

These patterns play out a high percentage of the time (app. 80%) on 15m, 1H and 4H, and I had always assumed that the higher the TF the more valid the pattern. I've only seen one example of a set-up as big as this on the GBPJY Daily/Weekly a few months ago since I've been using the Zup indicator and if my memory serves me that particular pattern failed. One piece of data is not a reliable sample and my memory isn't that reliable either. If I get a chance this weekend I'll see if I can dig it out and we can have a look at it for posterity if nothing else.
  • #58,820
  • Jan 11, 2008 2:46pm Jan 11, 2008 2:46pm
Quoting quecee5
Actually, the weekly and monthly chart does make you pounder. . .
Somebodys mind is on the weekend
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