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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #58,681
  • Jan 11, 2008 4:45am Jan 11, 2008 4:45am
Does anyone think there will be some end of week profit taking of shorts which could retrace this geppy?

I will be careful the last hour of frankurt and london sessions.

Dow futures are looking bearish on subprime news.
  • #58,682
  • Jan 11, 2008 4:54am Jan 11, 2008 4:54am
Quoting quecee5
Here is what I see based on pivots and daily charts. . .
GJ should head back up to test broken resistance of 213.60 a break above would lead to daily resistance/pivot and take it back to the 23.6 fib line @ 214.60's, possible but doubtful. . . If 213.66 holds then it will make its way down to next support @ 212.20/211.80. . . Stoch, RSI and Mom's support the up movement to at least 213.66 if it get above 213.30. . . It has already gotten a 1hr close above 5 SMA so it should be good to there at least.

Feedback welcomed. . .
a retest of 5 sma low at 213.55 looks likely.
  • #58,683
  • Jan 11, 2008 4:56am Jan 11, 2008 4:56am
my 4 hour 5 sma is sitting at 213.59
  • #58,684
  • Jan 11, 2008 5:01am Jan 11, 2008 5:01am
My 15m looks like this
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #58,685
  • Edited 8:55am Jan 11, 2008 5:01am | Edited 8:55am
Watch for 1hr close above the 213.31 which could get GJ back to the r1 on 4hr pivot @ 213.66 a break above could get it back to the daily pivot @ 214.68 where I expect to get short unless it gets a close above there. . . However, a break above there would lead it back to daily r1 @ 215.79 doubtful but possible. . .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1hr chart updated.JPG Size: 218 KB
  • #58,686
  • Jan 11, 2008 5:03am Jan 11, 2008 5:03am
my weekly 200 sma is sitting at 212.82 area.
  • #58,687
  • Jan 11, 2008 5:36am Jan 11, 2008 5:36am
who ever said living on credit was bad LOL
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #58,688
  • Jan 11, 2008 5:38am Jan 11, 2008 5:38am
Quoting OrionsWay
who ever said living on credit was bad LOL
only if you are a govt
  • #58,689
  • Jan 11, 2008 5:43am Jan 11, 2008 5:43am
next decision point in time is cursor

look at historical volatility, ready to explode again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #58,690
  • Jan 11, 2008 5:45am Jan 11, 2008 5:45am
Quoting OrionsWay
next decision point in time is cursor

look at historical volatility, ready to explode again
Rising wedge - favour to the downside? Same way it broke down last time 915 min chart)
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #58,691
  • Jan 11, 2008 5:48am Jan 11, 2008 5:48am
Quoting MMDealer
Rising wedge - favour to the downside? Same way it broke down last time 915 min chart)
Cool!! you watch for those chart patterns Too. I saw that on that last chart. And we were stopped at the 50% retrace of the last fall. I think it may not make much more up side before more down.
  • #58,692
  • Jan 11, 2008 5:49am Jan 11, 2008 5:49am
Quoting fxstman
Cool!! you watch for those chart patterns Too. I saw that on that last chart. And we were stopped at the 50% retrace of the last fall. I think it may not make much more up side before more down.
Yeah bro - 50% pretty much to the pip as well... cool hey.
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #58,693
  • Jan 11, 2008 5:53am Jan 11, 2008 5:53am
Quoting MMDealer
Yeah bro - 50% pretty much to the pip as well... cool hey.
Yes. I've started looking for more patterns. The last rising wedge @ 227.xx Before that fall paid off pretty good. Chart patterns & a few indicators can payoff. Good luck trading Bro.
  • #58,694
  • Jan 11, 2008 5:58am Jan 11, 2008 5:58am
Quoting quecee5
Watch for 1hr close above the 213.31 which could should get GJ back to the r1 on 4hr pivot @ 213.66 a break above could get it back to the daily pivot @ 214.68 where I expect to get short unless it gets a close above there. . . However, a break above there would lead it back to daily r1 @ 215.79 doubtful but possible. . .
yeah am seeing the same thing here. Its possible for g/j to bounce back from the channel. looking at the channel on the 1hr and the chart patterns on daily chart it shows we are still on the down trend. but a 1hr, 4hr close above the the channel signals up bcos we are in the oversold region.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #58,695
  • Jan 11, 2008 6:01am Jan 11, 2008 6:01am
Quoting kdoubled01
yeah am seeing the same thing here. Its possible for g/j to bounce back from the channel. looking at the channel on the 1hr and the chart patterns on daily chart it shows we are still on the down trend. but a 1hr, 4hr close above the the channel signals up bcos we are in the oversold region.
Those smaller TF's do tell the story eh? I even watch the 15 min chart but use HTF to determine over trend which in this case is down. . .
  • #58,696
  • Jan 11, 2008 6:03am Jan 11, 2008 6:03am
last hourly candle closed at 213.13 area.
  • #58,697
  • Jan 11, 2008 6:13am Jan 11, 2008 6:13am
Quoting ovaforty
last hourly candle closed at 213.13 area.
Hourly RSI, and Stoch look to have room to move up a bit. Mom's 1c and 14c are point up slightly above 0, 10c point south. . . so GJ may move up toward daily pivot if it gets above 213.55/66 but 213.55/66 was the 50 fib from the last move down so it should cap out there and start to move down. However, daily low was hit @ 212.20 so I'm thinking daily high could be hit sometime today which is 214.68, sounds crazy but either/or I will be shorting on all rallies. . .
  • #58,698
  • Jan 11, 2008 6:24am Jan 11, 2008 6:24am
Looks like this trend line on the daily chart is offering support for know.
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  • #58,699
  • Jan 11, 2008 6:28am Jan 11, 2008 6:28am
Quoting auslanco
Today I decided to write about my trading startegy. Culdnt figure out where to start. It's not easy to summerize something which took me over 3 years to learn. I decided to explain my startegy on real market scenarios on this thread. Therefor I will give a GBP/JPY market analysis start of every session (Tokyo,London,NY). I may cut down on giving signals since I feel that most of the newbies follow the trade calls blindly and they will skip that most imporatnt learning curve of this pair. Hope everyone will enjoy this thread and learn .
Happy Trading.
Hello,
I have been following your threads and decided to join today so Ican take part in this forum.
I am a new trader and is looking for like minds and mentors. What is your strategy for trading the cable? I have read your threads on money management etc and find them very useful, THANK YOU, as a newbie I appreciate all the help.
Carnic
  • #58,700
  • Jan 11, 2008 6:29am Jan 11, 2008 6:29am
OK, I have had enough. I have closed all my longs and started scaling into more shorts. If history is any indicator, that means our rally to 220 should begin before long.
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