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GBP/USD Higher timeframe Analysis

  • #21
  • Jan 8, 2008 1:48pm Jan 8, 2008 1:48pm
Overall Trend is to head lower towards the January lows...

This Week's expectation of a 2-day counter-trend move back towards the 3-day highs (lower Weekly open)

With Tuesday price action, I would favor the trend resuming its higher timeframe path to lower prices this week...first reference the Weekly lows @ 1.9603

Trend guide 5-day 50% level for rest of this week..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp1-8f.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #22
  • Jan 8, 2008 5:34pm Jan 8, 2008 5:34pm
Hi, how do you derive the blue levels in your chart? Also, pls could you confirm you are using the 50% level of the last 5 day's range? I don't get the same levels on my charts for some reason...thanks.
  • #23
  • Jan 9, 2008 2:49am Jan 9, 2008 2:49am
Quoting Frank D
With Tuesday price action, I would favor the trend resuming its higher timeframe path to lower prices this week...first reference the Weekly lows @ 1.9603

Trend guide 5-day 50% level for rest of this week..
...603 not far off now. Great call Frank D. Looking forward to your next update.
  • #24
  • Jan 9, 2008 6:19am Jan 9, 2008 6:19am
GBP following the Weekly trend down towards the 1.9603...

Overall Weekly trend is down and can go down further... below 1.9603 and moving into extended lows into Thursday....

Whilst below the blue channel lows exepctation that price will continue lower into Thursday......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp1-9a.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #25
  • Jan 9, 2008 8:26pm Jan 9, 2008 8:26pm
Trend down and moving into a major support level around 1.9504-7, this is also matching around the Thursday's low

Expectation of a channel breakout will often move towards the next channel extreme:- i.e. break of Wednesday lows moving into Thursday's extreme.

Resistance on Thursday:- either the Weekly lows (1.9030) or Wednesday's channel break, but more likely to head down....

Don't trade longs below Support, and any upside on Thursday would be limited to around resistance levels...

January lows are 1.9332
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp1-10a.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #26
  • Jan 10, 2008 4:27am Jan 10, 2008 4:27am
GBP has moved 90 pips off the lows back into Resistance....

If the market is going to swing back down, the 90 pip spiral top @ 1.9630 should be used...

don't look for short trading above the 5-day 50% level...

if there is going to be any reversal down it will probably come in during US trading hours, which is a few hours away....

Resistance 1.9644 (Wednesday Break)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #27
  • Jan 10, 2008 5:19am Jan 10, 2008 5:19am
Hits resistance and expectation that any follow through on the downside could move down into Thursday’s lows @ 1.9531 (not guaranteed)

Entry 1.9644 (stops 1.9661)

Partial exit 1.9611

Hopefully price remains below the 90 pip ‘spiral high’ @ 1.9630 and continues down into 90 pip lows (next exit zone)

With complete exit around Thursday lows (slightly before)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp1-10b.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #28
  • Jan 10, 2008 5:45am Jan 10, 2008 5:45am
Hi
first time reading your post, good job, well done. Still learning. Now everybody are waiting for BOE. What is your opinion?
  • #29
  • Jan 10, 2008 5:47am Jan 10, 2008 5:47am
...fingers crossed there isn't a spike against you on the BoE rate decision at 12gmt.
  • #30
  • Jan 10, 2008 6:02am Jan 10, 2008 6:02am
...ouch, i'd have been stopped out on my platform.
  • #31
  • Jan 10, 2008 6:08am Jan 10, 2008 6:08am
I offloaded just before Annoucement @ 1.9606

and got back in at same price at 1.9644 (same stops @ 1.9661)

I'll be going to bed shortly.....
  • #32
  • Jan 10, 2008 6:13am Jan 10, 2008 6:13am
hmm, would've been stopped out again...probably best to wait for the dust to settle.
  • #33
  • Jan 10, 2008 6:30am Jan 10, 2008 6:30am
my stops taken but I think the 5-day 50% level is playing resistance....1.9658 and I haven't change my view.... or my analysis,

trading the direction of the 5-day 50% level down....

back into shorts again 1.9654

partial exit 1.9623

moved stops to just above highs

(I always partial exit between 31-43 pip range from previous swing) then go for larger ranges, at least I have banked some profit, and once you have partial exit you can move stops closer to $ dollar breakeven

going to bed now, hopefully when I wake up it's all good news...
  • #34
  • Jan 10, 2008 6:56am Jan 10, 2008 6:56am
next exit 1.9558 90 pip completion and holding...

this is why I think GBP/USD is one of the best currencies to trade..
it happens so quick and there are large ranges to make the bucks...

Last exit is Thursday lows...

You guys can look for 'SUPPORT" BUY trades if you wish..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp1-10d.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #35
  • Jan 10, 2008 7:13am Jan 10, 2008 7:13am
Good trading, Sir. I took shorts from a 123 pattern off the 1min, once the price action stabalised a little after BoE.

Thank you for your continued updates.
  • #36
  • Jan 10, 2008 7:24am Jan 10, 2008 7:24am
Quoting Frank D
next exit 1.9558 90 pip completion and holding...

this is why I think GBP/USD is one of the best currencies to trade..
it happens so quick and there are large ranges to make the bucks...

Last exit is Thursday lows...

You guys can look for 'SUPPORT" BUY trades if you wish..
Fantastic chart u have. May i know why since BOE remain the IR, instead of going up, cable reversed down? May i know where is the support to BUY? i am still new, thank you
  • #37
  • Jan 11, 2008 1:09am Jan 11, 2008 1:09am
90 pip up swing and back down into major support for Friday....

don't trade longs below 1.9504 today....

re-entered and exitted for 90 pip swing lows and Friday Target....

have a good weekend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP1-11b.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #38
  • Jan 11, 2008 1:19am Jan 11, 2008 1:19am
Quoting Frank D
90 pip up swing and back down into major support for Friday....

don't trade longs below 1.9504 today....

re-entered and exitted for 90 pip swing lows and Friday Target....

have a good weekend
Do u mean can open short now (505) and take profit at abt (400)?
  • #39
  • Jan 11, 2008 1:35am Jan 11, 2008 1:35am
Quoting Frank D
90 pip up swing and back down into major support for Friday....

don't trade longs below 1.9504 today....

re-entered and exitted for 90 pip swing lows and Friday Target....

have a good weekend
May i know where can i open short position?
  • #40
  • Jan 11, 2008 3:36am Jan 11, 2008 3:36am
Hi Frank
I’m currently trying to get into higher time frame analyst/trading and find your model very interesting ,great work I look forward to further posts
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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