Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

Quoting Rocroy

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i would disagree, the rising tl is broken, and we now have a new one, pointing down.

R

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Quoting birdt

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I'm not suggesting that it is your only reason but expecting to hit the 220's based upon the absence of a significant retrace is flimsy at best. The PA following BoE interest rate decision was quite revealing. Although it was expected, a number of traders and those 'in the know' were quietly tipping that the central bank might pre-emptively cut in light of the deteriorating health of the economy, particularly the housing market. When the no-cut came there was a surge in demand, as expected, but this was given back rapidly and now we're looking to plumb new depths, knocking at 214.

It is my belief that the situation in the financial markets is dire and as more of the truth comes out next week, confidence will take a hit and we could see another significant fall. Does anyone think that this is going to be the bottom, that GBPJPY is good value for a buy in the medium term? The head and shoulders pattern played out - GBPJPY fell 4.4% last week, investors don't want to be on the wrong end of that sort of price movement.

But this is just a surmisation, take it with a pinch of salt. The real point is not to get too married to the idea of trading in a particular direction, especially when it is against the trend.

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Quoting intelmaster

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hi birdt, i agree that we are in the down trend in the long run..

and it is true that my only reason for looking north-ward is for a significant retrace of some sort... (at least to the 219 region where fib lies), before making a lower low.

and i was surprised that the upward movement after the announcement was not significant.

and yes bro, it is a flimsy thread of hope.. but the only reason I am hoping for is cause i am in a swing position after the dip to the 21x region which I am still benefiting due to swap.. and i hope that 213 is not breached before 219.. but then again, it's just hope and against all fundamentals which point south.

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Quoting Repipula

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I am completely banking on that fib retrace right now. it's going south for sure in the long run, but I see a major bed of support right now at this 214 price level. my thought is that we're going to break the 5 min chart downward trendline to the north after the bernanke speech and begin the retrace up to 219, maybe 221 at the 50% retrace near the major daily trendline that is up there as well. also in my analysis, every major moving average on the daily is WAY above current price. it's my experience that when everyone wants price to go down, and fundamentals say it should go down, and it's flirting with a major bed of support like we're seeing right now, and everyone's expecting a plunge below that support, and price is really far from even a 12 ema, that this is when price is going to go in the opposite direction and correct itself before it does what everyone wants it to do.

but what do I know, I'm a n00b

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Quoting Repipula

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I am completely banking on that fib retrace right now. it's going south for sure in the long run, but I see a major bed of support right now at this 214 price level. my thought is that we're going to break the 5 min chart downward trendline to the north after the bernanke speech and begin the retrace up to 219, maybe 221 at the 50% retrace near the major daily trendline that is up there as well. also in my analysis, every major moving average on the daily is WAY above current price. it's my experience that when everyone wants price to go down, and fundamentals say it should go down, and it's flirting with a major bed of support like we're seeing right now, and everyone's expecting a plunge below that support, and price is really far from even a 12 ema, that this is when price is going to go in the opposite direction and correct itself before it does what everyone wants it to do.

but what do I know, I'm a n00b

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Quoting Rocroy

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i would disagree, the rising tl is broken, and we now have a new one, pointing down.

R

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Quoting doughboi

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bounced perfectly off the fib line........sold at 214.55,.....Now its time to sit for the long ride down

i see no upside in our future

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Quoting doughboi

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bounced perfectly off the fib line........sold at 214.55,.....Now its time to sit for the long ride down

i see no upside in our future

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