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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #58,041
  • Jan 9, 2008 8:38am Jan 9, 2008 8:38am
Quoting PipChick
The right shoulder is lower. Lemme see if I can get my print screen to work.
Cant get it to work but the right shoulder is about the 214.50 area.This is a case where its best to sell at the rt shoulder for scalps and not buy IMO.But htis pair has been so wild lately that all we can do is look at all of the angles and possibilities and go from there.
  • #58,042
  • Jan 9, 2008 8:39am Jan 9, 2008 8:39am
Quoting mike w
I see your point on that Pipchick. That retracement up to 215 is just theoretical. If it would happen, I'd be ready to load more shorts up there again.
Yes...and for the Noobs...we are in a down trend currently so it is best to sell the rallies.
  • #58,043
  • Jan 9, 2008 8:43am Jan 9, 2008 8:43am
Quoting PipChick
Yes...and for the Noobs...we are in a down trend currently so it is best to sell the rallies.
No doubt about that!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #58,044
  • Jan 9, 2008 8:44am Jan 9, 2008 8:44am
There is a possibility that the Bof E will allow interest rates to remain the same. If so, how will the gbp/jpy react?
  • #58,045
  • Jan 9, 2008 8:48am Jan 9, 2008 8:48am
Quoting joiedevivre
There is a possibility that the Bof E will allow interest rates to remain the same. If so, how will the gbp/jpy react?
Monster pop, given that cable will take off IF that happens. I blew TOO many accounts picking tops and bottoms. This is one of those places that yes, it'll suck thinking you could have gotten in now, but thankful that you weren't if they did cut rates.

I hate being on the sideline on this one. But I'm in no mood to blow an account here. Hey, sliding under 214, I'm glad I cleared out...

Wait after tommorow. But right now clear direction is lower.

THE HUN.
  • #58,046
  • Jan 9, 2008 8:51am Jan 9, 2008 8:51am
Quoting joiedevivre
There is a possibility that the Bof E will allow interest rates to remain the same. If so, how will the gbp/jpy react?
GPB/USD will rally to some extent, pulling GJ up with it. How far up is another matter....most believe that BOE will be cutting rates soon, even if they hold off this meeting. Something fundamental will have to change to alter that widely held view. Still, the market is expecting a cut, so no cut would provide some short term relief and allow G/U to rally.
  • #58,047
  • Jan 9, 2008 9:10am Jan 9, 2008 9:10am
Quoting AussieAl
Hay Birdt. Long time,,, no talkie. Anyway, love reading your info. Can you tell me if that is a Stocastic you are using in the botton window of the chart you recently posted? Also, hope you had a good Chrissie. Al
Cheers pal, hope you had a good one too.

I don't know very much about the T3 Trix indicator, I hadn't looked at a GBPCHF chart for ages and this was what was on it. I seem to remember it being useful for cutting out whipsaws and was for confirmation rather than entering solely upon it's signals. Anyhow, here is the indicator, make of it what you will:
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 T3 -Trix.mq4   5 KB | 917 downloads
File Type: ex4 T3 -Trix.ex4   6 KB | 596 downloads
  • #58,048
  • Jan 9, 2008 9:21am Jan 9, 2008 9:21am
Quoting marketwavez
Can you please answer my question posted just above , I'm waiting .....
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thanx in advance :
I think this is what you were lookin for earlier.

http://www.pnwenterprises.com/auslanco/
http://auslanco.blogspot.com/
http://www.auslanco-fx.blogspot.com/

Also theres another post on it:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=63831
  • #58,049
  • Jan 9, 2008 9:38am Jan 9, 2008 9:38am
Quoting PipChick
Cant get it to work but the right shoulder is about the 214.50 area.This is a case where its best to sell at the rt shoulder for scalps and not buy IMO.But htis pair has been so wild lately that all we can do is look at all of the angles and possibilities and go from there.
thx
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #58,050
  • Jan 9, 2008 9:52am Jan 9, 2008 9:52am
Quoting birdt
Cheers pal, hope you had a good one too.

I don't know very much about the T3 Trix indicator, I hadn't looked at a GBPCHF c...

I use this indicator. Its very useful for ranging markets like today (5 hours ago till now) and I recommend it with the settings I say only for 5M TF and for scalping.


use the settings below :
Attached Image
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #58,051
  • Jan 9, 2008 10:18am Jan 9, 2008 10:18am
I see a wedge reversal pattern on 15M chart, may be market is going to retrace back up. If retrace starts, I believe we shall see at least 215.26 again if not higher for now ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wedge.gif Size: 20 KB
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #58,052
  • Jan 9, 2008 10:24am Jan 9, 2008 10:24am
Quoting arezab
I see a wedge reversal pattern on 15M chart, may be market is going to retrace back up. If retrace starts, I believe we shall see at least 215.26 again if not higher for now ...

GOOD AFTERNOON TO ALL!

arezeb can you post a chart please?
  • #58,053
  • Jan 9, 2008 10:27am Jan 9, 2008 10:27am
Quoting dagoods
GOOD AFTERNOON TO ALL!

arezeb can you post a chart please?
Ya I edited my post bro ...
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #58,054
  • Jan 9, 2008 10:27am Jan 9, 2008 10:27am
Thanks for your setting Arezab, just had a quick glance and they look to be close to the optimum settings for that TF. As you said - great for scalping.

I forgot to include the T3 Trix signals:
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 t3-TRIX signals.ex4   4 KB | 472 downloads
File Type: mq4 t3-TRIX signals.mq4   4 KB | 541 downloads
  • #58,055
  • Jan 9, 2008 10:32am Jan 9, 2008 10:32am
Quoting FX-Petra
GPB/USD will rally to some extent, pulling GJ up with it. How far up is another matter....most believe that BOE will be cutting rates soon, even if they hold off this meeting. Something fundamental will have to change to alter that widely held view. Still, the market is expecting a cut, so no cut would provide some short term relief and allow G/U to rally.

thanks u fx i would be so much more confused if it werent for YOUR fundie analysis! question: do you really think a no cut is possible after that 9-0 vote to cut? is it more likely that there will be a cut but an accompanying statement that indicates no more cuts for a while which would also give releif for a bit? IE, maybe the tone of the announcement will matter more than the actual decision? and then traders will be all confused.... i think this may be news to stay FAR away from.....


SIDELINES?
  • #58,056
  • Jan 9, 2008 10:37am Jan 9, 2008 10:37am
I think a no cut will have a negative effect on the pound. Traders are so widely expecting a cut that a no cut would be a huge disappointment and will send the pound crashing imo.
  • #58,057
  • Jan 9, 2008 10:38am Jan 9, 2008 10:38am
Quoting birdt
Thanks for your setting Arezab, just had a quick glance and they look to be close to the optimum settings for that TF. As you said - great for scalping.

I forgot to include the T3 Trix signals:
oh thank you this signaling dots with alert is great when combined with main indicator. thanks bro ...
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
  • #58,058
  • Jan 9, 2008 10:49am Jan 9, 2008 10:49am
Quoting vinesh2
I think a no cut will have a negative effect on the pound. Traders are so widely expecting a cut that a no cut would be a huge disappointment and will send the pound crashing imo.
Look at the GBP price. A cut is already priced in. A surprise no-cut would cause gbp/usd shorts to bail.....
  • #58,059
  • Jan 9, 2008 10:49am Jan 9, 2008 10:49am
Quoting vinesh2
I think a no cut will have a negative effect on the pound. Traders are so widely expecting a cut that a no cut would be a huge disappointment and will send the pound crashing imo.
Hmm, it's counter intuitive but I see what you're saying. So you'll be shorting whatever then? I still think if there is no cut, which it should be noted Vinesh seems to be the consensus amongst commentators, there will a surge in demand for GBP due to the interest yield factor. A rate cut is by no means off the cards though, and that really would have a massive effect on GBP. Should be interesting in any case.

Quote from dailyfx

Quote
9 out of 50 economists polled by Bloomberg News currently believe the central bank will cut rates by 25bp on Thursday. However, the majority believe that they will leave rates on hold, as do we. Indeed, the BOE will likely prefer to take a gradual approach to rate cuts, so as to not fan any existing price pressures as oil continues to trade dangerously close to $100/bbl. Instead, the central bank may opt to wait out the first quarter to gauge how the credit markets, inflation, and growth figures fare in light of their December rate cut. The price action in the British pound pairs following the rate announcement should be interesting, as the currency has plunged against the US Dollar, the Euro, and even the Japanese Yen. If the BOE leaves rates unchanged as we expect the markets may judge that the sell-off in the British Pound is overdone, and as a result, the currency could actually gain.
  • #58,060
  • Jan 9, 2008 10:53am Jan 9, 2008 10:53am
Quoting dagoods
thanks u fx i would be so much more confused if it werent for YOUR fundie analysis! question: do you really think a no cut is possible after that 9-0 vote to cut? is it more likely that there will be a cut but an accompanying statement that indicates no more cuts for a while which would also give releif for a bit? IE, maybe the tone of the announcement will matter more than the actual decision? and then traders will be all confused.... i think this may be news to stay FAR away from.....


SIDELINES?
If you are asking what i think, then yes, I think they will cut by 25 basis points. That is the most likely out come, and will have the least affect on market volitilaty. No cut would have a short term affect, but G/U sentiment is sour right now so the rally would be limited. A 25 point cut, with a 9-0 when minutes are released, would send us lower. About the only thing (within reason) that can turn GU around is no cut and a strong 8-1 or 9-0 vote. That would send GU shorts running for the hills. I veiw this as unlikley.
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