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greenspan still has excellent timing

  • #61
  • Dec 31, 2007 2:48pm Dec 31, 2007 2:48pm
i have read around 200 pages and i also have to agree it is simply a wealth of information about the chairman and the inner workings of the fed. it reminds me a lot of reading books about buffett - they were born around the same time in the midst of the depression, both were good at math, both succeeded from the word go - warren with his investment partnership and alan with his consulting firm, both pored over vast amounts of data - buffett over annual reports, greenie on econ data - the parallels go on and on...two peas from the same pod.

it would be really interesting if people like darkstar and merlin and others could continue a debate on this book, in or out of the trader's room (so i could join in perhaps?) - it would make for a really good thread on FF.

Quoting merlin
i finally found some time to sit down with this book over the holiday. all i can say is WOW! what an amazingly insightful book!! ive always been a big greenspan fan, but now my admiration for the man has doubled. id argue he is the WORLDS most influential figure of the last 30 years.

the insight this books gives you into the FOMC is simply stunning. their operations are a lot more "human" than i expected. i knew the fed paid attention to the markets, but i had no idea they were so concerned with trader sentiment and traders reactions to their policy. i came away with a much better sense of what the fed might be thinking currently and in the future. this knowledge is worth millions, i got a great deal on the book LOL.

the historical account alone is worth reading the book. everything from savings&loan, black monday, the dot bomb, its all in there, explained in detail from the perspective of a fed chief. there is quite a bit of politics covered, and although im not a fan of politics, the way the book puts politics in a financial light makes it very interesting. it really shows you how closely intertwined finance and politics are.

one of the most interesting comments made regarding currency trading is when greeny was amazed to see consistent monthly profits from JP Morgans forex operations. he said something like "consistent monthly gains like that are near impossible". what is this, greenspan is saying its impossible to make money trading forex??

btw, i had no idea that greenspan dated barbra walters. whats with greeny and his love for news ladies? LOL
  • #62
  • Jan 1, 2008 7:19pm Jan 1, 2008 7:19pm
Quoting Isotonic
it reminds me a lot of reading books about buffett - they were born around the same time in the midst of the depression, both were good at math, both succeeded from the word go - warren with his investment partnership and alan with his consulting firm, both pored over vast amounts of data - buffett over annual reports, greenie on econ data - the parallels go on and on...two peas from the same pod..
very keen observation iso!

Quoting Isotonic
it would be really interesting if people like darkstar and merlin and others could continue a debate on this book
im always up for a debate one possible contentious opinion i developed while reading the book is that greenspan was too politically involved to be tapped for the fed chair. things ended up working out well, but i dont think its good practice to have a fed chairman that was involved in a handful of political campaigns. greenys predecessor, paul volcker, he is the kind of guy we should have in that position. i like how volcker thought a meeting with the president was not appropriate LOL.

i look forward to more of your thoughts on the book too iso, i like the buffet parallel you pulled out!
Relax and be happy.
  • #63
  • Jan 1, 2008 8:58pm Jan 1, 2008 8:58pm
You guys are slowly selling me that book. Since this is not a trading book, I may actually buy it (I do not read trading books) but I am wondering if, apart from the obvious entertainment value, there is any particular chapter that actually gave you ideas that will cause you to change your trading in any way.. perhaps insights into deciphering fed talk, or understanding possible government reaction (with accurate timing) to major movements on the exchanges? And I agree with merlin that the fed chair is one hell of a powerful position. It's just that he pulls the strings from behind the curtain. A very discreet sort of power, like a man diffusing a bomb in a car with dark tinted windows, parked on a crowded street.

Car analogies: you can't live without 'em
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #64
  • Jan 4, 2008 4:00pm Jan 4, 2008 4:00pm
Quoting Plutonite
You guys are slowly selling me that book.
its written by the former fed chairman!! there can be no better pitch!

Quoting Plutonite
but I am wondering if, apart from the obvious entertainment value, there is any particular chapter that actually gave you ideas that will cause you to change your trading in any way
yes, every single chapter.

obviously currencies are all about interest rates, and the fed sets fed funds rates so this could possibly be the best book a currency trader can read. you also get a good sense for how the fed deals with disasters, which can be incredibly valuable.

btw, bernanke's book Inflation Targeting is also very insightful, falling only slightly short to greeny's book.
Relax and be happy.
  • #65
  • Jan 6, 2008 2:28pm Jan 6, 2008 2:28pm
since the fed is supposed to be independent of the government (i think) then i would agree. anybody else but greenie would be tempted to mix the two. the other interesting point is that the administration gets to decide whether to renew the chairman's contract - why not outsource that to an independent committee, rather than leave it to the whims (and the personal interests) of the incumbents in office?

as a comparison, the BoE has been "independent" for just over 10 years when the then chancellor gordon brown (now PM) separated the two, but i suspect that true independence is still just an ideal rather than a reality. i think the ECB (and trichet in particular) trumpets their independence more loudly and perhaps with more credibility since it's a fairly recent institution (9 years?) and the poor ole BoJ is perhaps the worst off being constantly told what to think by the MoF! (as in "SELL YEN, BUY DOLLARS!!")

Quoting merlin
very keen observation iso!


im always up for a debate one possible contentious opinion i developed while reading the book is that greenspan was too politically involved to be tapped for the fed chair. things ended up working out well, but i dont think its good practice to have a fed chairman that was involved in a handful of political campaigns. greenys predecessor, paul volcker, he is the kind of guy we should have in that position. i like how volcker thought a meeting with the president was not appropriate LOL.

i look forward to more of your thoughts on the book too iso, i like the buffet parallel you pulled out!
  • #66
  • Jan 6, 2008 2:47pm Jan 6, 2008 2:47pm
greenie gives you an insiders view of the inner workings of this still largely secret institution. you get to see how they react to crises (like the plunge in 87 and more recently 9/11), how they handled credit crunches in the past, how they mull over econ data before rate announcements, how they follow the markets reaction to events etc.

one incident that made me smile was the "black monday" chapter when the dow dropped 500 points and he mistakenly thought it was only 5, and commented what a "terrific rally" that was! (until he was corrected by an official).:

i'm not sure how you can use this book to accurately time your trades but it sure does expand your knowledge how central banks must operate around the world (or at least most of the G7 nations).

Quoting Plutonite
You guys are slowly selling me that book. Since this is not a trading book, I may actually buy it (I do not read trading books) but I am wondering if, apart from the obvious entertainment value, there is any particular chapter that actually gave you ideas that will cause you to change your trading in any way.. perhaps insights into deciphering fed talk, or understanding possible government reaction (with accurate timing) to major movements on the exchanges? And I agree with merlin that the fed chair is one hell of a powerful position. It's just that he pulls the strings from behind the curtain. A very discreet sort of power, like a man diffusing a bomb in a car with dark tinted windows, parked on a crowded street.

Car analogies: you can't live without 'em
  • #67
  • Jan 8, 2008 2:58am Jan 8, 2008 2:58am
How I wish to have such power


I am anchor of business program and sometimes make currency rate predictions, basically local currency rate to USD, frankly speaking my predictions appear to be 95% accurate and some business person ask me what I think about currencies, this gave me a hint to make website which I sell predictions, absence of regulation on financial recommendations in my country strengthens my motivation to start up this kind of biz.
kiss the trend
  • #68
  • Jan 8, 2008 1:34pm Jan 8, 2008 1:34pm
Quoting Isotonic
the other interesting point is that the administration gets to decide whether to renew the chairman's contract - why not outsource that to an independent committee, rather than leave it to the whims (and the personal interests) of the incumbents in office?
good point! however, if the decision went ot a committe, the argument then would be "who chooses the committe?"[/quote]

Quoting Isotonic
the poor ole BoJ is perhaps the worst off being constantly told what to think by the MoF! (as in "SELL YEN, BUY DOLLARS!!")
LOL! yeah id have to say that out of the G10, japans banking system is the most politically charged.
Relax and be happy.
  • #69
  • Jan 8, 2008 1:36pm Jan 8, 2008 1:36pm
Quoting Isotonic
how they mull over econ data before rate announcements
yes this is something that surprised me...the fed is always saying "we are looking at the data". ive always thought they used that as somewhat of an excuse for not giving clear answers, but after reading this book i realize they really are looking at the data. and this data is available to all of us!
Relax and be happy.
  • #70
  • Jan 9, 2008 10:35am Jan 9, 2008 10:35am
I've been lurking around in this here thread and would like to say thanks.
I am now the proud new owner of this book, and even though I currently have three other books that I am reading, I figured that since this one is so small I can deal with four. I just want to know one thing, how much of the cut are your guys getting?
Seriously I look forward to sharing some insights with you but for now I am trying to speed read the last two chapters of one book, the other will just have to go back on the shelf for now and the third is still a study book. (Neely's scientifically and quantivemathematically ultra confusing Elliot Wave theory)
Just Trade It
  • #71
  • Jan 12, 2008 8:14am Jan 12, 2008 8:14am
Just started reading the book. Went thought the pictures first and couldn't let noticing that one in which Greenspan said he was trying to convince Ford to run as Reagan's vice president.

Ford declined and in 24h the Bush dynasty got a push.

One of those things that make you go hmmmmmm
  • #72
  • Jan 12, 2008 10:25am Jan 12, 2008 10:25am
Quoting cesarnc
Just started reading the book. Went thought the pictures first and couldn't let noticing that one in which Greenspan said he was trying to convince Ford to run as Reagan's vice president.

Ford declined and in 24h the Bush dynasty got a push.

One of those things that make you go hmmmmmm

Speaking of those photo's there is one that makes me laugh and angers me at the same time. This is a true story. President Ford's Colorado house is in Beaver Creek where I used to live. On THAT very day as Greenspan was being sworn in by Cheney I was coming down a 10k loop on an unmarked trial on my mountain bike. Well the end of the loop just happens to run right behind Fords house (it actually runs above his under ground bomb shelter) where they had plenty of armed SS guards hiding behind the aspen trees, anyways they must of heard me coming cause I was hauling a$$ (very fast) all of the sudden they jump out from behind the trees guns out and shouting some B.S, I slam on my disk brakes which will stop the bike in an instant, unfortunately it didn't stop me as I went flying head first into some aspen trees and landing on rocks. Then they surround me at gun point search me and want to know what the hell I'm doing on an unmarked trail thinking I'm some terrorist. They didn't care one bit that I almost broke my collar bone, my elbow is gushing out blood as well as my leg and I am in good deal of pain with no I.D on me. After I finally convince them that I'm a local who knows of all the unmarked trails and pose no threat they finally let me go without offering any help to control my bleeding.
When I bought the book and saw that picture I had to laugh out loud. As it brings back memories and yes I still have that scar on my elbow
I hate SS guards.
RIP Gerald
Just Trade It
  • #73
  • Jan 12, 2008 10:35am Jan 12, 2008 10:35am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Speaking of those photo's there is one that makes me laugh and angers me at the same time. This is a true story. President Ford's Colorado house is in Beaver Creek where I used to live. On THAT very day as Greenspan was being sworn in by Cheney I was coming down a 10k loop on an unmarked trial on my mountain bike. Well the end of the loop just happens to run right behind Fords house (it actually runs above his under ground bomb shelter) where they had plenty of armed SS guards hiding behind the aspen trees, anyways they must of heard me coming cause I was hauling a$$ (very fast) all of the sudden they jump out from behind the trees guns out and shouting some B.S, I slam on my disk brakes which will stop the bike in an instant, unfortunately it didn't stop me as I went flying head first into some aspen trees and landing on rocks. Then they surround me at gun point search me and want to know what the hell I'm doing on an unmarked trail thinking I'm some terrorist. They didn't care one bit that I almost broke my collar bone, my elbow is gushing out blood as well as my leg and I am in good deal of pain with no I.D on me. After I finally convince them that I'm a local who knows of all the unmarked trails and pose no threat they finally let me go without offering any help to control my bleeding.
When I bought the book and saw that picture I had to laugh out loud. As it brings back memories and yes I still have that scar on my elbow
I hate SS guards.
RIP Gerald
I'm LMAO for 10 minutes here

Unfortunately the whole event was just a <BUMP> at Ford's room and didn't deserve one line in Greenspan's book.

I'd like to read in the footnotes: *This very day we had to hit the floor for 10 mintues because of a terrorist attack, until we figured out it was just some crazy biker hauling ass right behind the house.

  • #74
  • Jan 12, 2008 6:01pm Jan 12, 2008 6:01pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
This is a true story.
you have got to be kidding!!!
Relax and be happy.
  • #75
  • Jan 13, 2008 12:25pm Jan 13, 2008 12:25pm
Quoting merlin
you have got to be kidding!!!

I wish I was, because of that accident I couldn't go mountain biking for the rest of summer. One of my drinking pals runs BC security and told me that the whole area was blocked off to the public and that I was lucky that I was not detained. Fortunately I wasn't packing my nine that day or else we would of had serious problems. Not that I would take a gun mountain biking with me nor do I even own a gun, but the fact that I had no type of weapon on me is why they let me go, plus one of the guards really liked my bike and I told him of some good trials in the area that would suit his ability. So that was a lesson to hold your emotions and be friendly in any situation and you might just get a break or a contact. Trust me, I wanted to yell and scream at them but I also knew that I was in the wrong because that was not a mountain bike trail but a deer and elk migrating path. (inactive during that time of year except for a few bikers and hikers)
Now that I am reading his book and saw the picture I cant help but wonder if Greenspan, Cheney and Ford were briefed of the "incident" in the back yard

Here is where it all went down, That white L shape thing is his under ground bunker
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fords house.jpg Size: 169 KB
Just Trade It
  • #76
  • Jan 13, 2008 12:30pm Jan 13, 2008 12:30pm
LOL........so they shipped you off to Switzerland to keep you quite.......
  • #77
  • Jan 13, 2008 12:38pm Jan 13, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting Learntocount
LOL........so they shipped you off to Switzerland to keep you quite.......
Apparently I knew too much about their location, and now so does google earth.
Just Trade It
  • #78
  • Jan 13, 2008 12:41pm Jan 13, 2008 12:41pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
I wish I was
This is sooo funny a story.

  • #79
  • Jan 13, 2008 1:04pm Jan 13, 2008 1:04pm
Quoting cesarnc
This is sooo funny a story.


In hindsight its very funny, but at the time it was anything but funny.
Just Trade It
  • #80
  • Jan 13, 2008 1:10pm Jan 13, 2008 1:10pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
In hindsight its very funny, but at the time it was anything but funny.
I didn't mean I was laughing at your expenses (yes I was).

Just kidding, I can figure that it was anything but funny at the time. But looking back it's a damn funny story. Maybe the way you told it. LOL
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