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Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

  • #2,541
  • Jan 7, 2007 1:06pm Jan 7, 2007 1:06pm
Quoting itme
Bill Gates, Donald Trump and Warren Buffet are the poster boys for the ultra-wealthy family dynasties whose wealth and power are immeasurably greater than that of the front boys for the true power in the world. The wealth of the family dynasties is measured in the trillions, if it is measurable at all in monetary terms. Power, at some point, becomes the only relevant measure. The ability to dictate, prescribe, and control public discourse, politics, law, monetary policy , and technology transcend simply accrued assets.

The truly wealthy hide their wealth and power behind an elaborate facade of front companies, banks and trusts and put the poster boys who are the media moguls, puppet politicians and nouveau wealthy capitalists and up in front of them so that the duped public will think that these tiny fish are actually the big fish. Meanwhile the whales conduct the affairs of the world behind the veil of illusion which they spin for the silly, uninformed public. The controlled, compliant media and brainwashed academics naively spin this web of deceit like a cobweb of lies which is indispensable to the perpetuation of the universal global plutocracy.
Search the internet for the 'Bilderberg group', and have your eyes opened! (And I do not mean the Dutch hotel chain!)
  • #2,542
  • Jan 7, 2007 1:53pm Jan 7, 2007 1:53pm
The dollar rallied after a government report showed the U.S. economy added more than expected jobs in December. The non-farm payrolls rose from 132k to 167k last month, beating the forecast of 113k. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.5%. The average hourly earnings increased 0.5%, well above the estimate of 0.3%. Recall the ADP job report released last Tuesday indicated a surprising 40K decline of jobs in private sector, making the market downwardly adjust the forecast for Friday's job report from the Labor Department. The unexpectedly strong job report ensured investors the labor market is still tight and reduced the expectations for a Fed rate cut anytime soon. The euro dropped from around 1.3085 and kept testing the key psychological level at 1.30. The sterling was down more than 100 points to 1.93.
  • #2,543
  • Jan 7, 2007 8:40pm Jan 7, 2007 8:40pm
Quoting CescoAiel
Search the internet for the 'Bilderberg group', and have your eyes opened! (And I do not mean the Dutch hotel chain!)
Also an internet search for 'Mayer Amschel Rothschild' will reveal some very interesting facts.

Adam141
  • #2,544
  • Jan 8, 2007 1:59am Jan 8, 2007 1:59am
??
Quoting fixme1too
Hello itme I too agree with this analysis would like to see euro go to lower 2900's before going up to 3200's before our very big down move to high 2600's low 2700's
  • #2,545
  • Jan 8, 2007 2:38am Jan 8, 2007 2:38am
Monday January 5 at 3:30 ET

Exit Experiment #303C Buy GBP/USD at 1.9342

This is the apparent top of an upwards mini-wave. If it is the first wave of a new large Wave 3, then it will probaby retrace considerably before it resumes its upwards travel. If it is the Wave A of a Wave 4 correction, then it will also correct downwards a considerable amount. Since the wave count is now uncertain, it is prudent to take 51 pips of profit and see how the patterns unfold.
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Previous Trade Experiment:

Friday January 5 at 9:00 ET
Trade Experiment #303C Buy GBP/USD at 1.9286
Stop is 1.9239
Target is 1.9735
Risk is 51 pips
Reward is 445 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 8.7

 Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : excellent

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to trade an upwards wave 1 of an upwards Wave 5 of the very large uptrend.
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Friday January 5 at 1:45 ET

Exit Trade Experiment #303C Buy GBP/USD at 1.9380 and Re-enter at a lower price

Exit at 1.9386 (or higher)

This makes an approximately breakeven trade (so far). The recent low is 1.9350. We believe this is the bottom of wave 3, and that the ultimate low (the bottom of wave 5) will be lower - perhaps 1.9340 or less
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Previous Trade Experiment:

Trade Experiment #303C Buy GBP/USD at 1.9380
Stop is 1.9324
Target is 1.9635
Risk is 60 pips
Reward is 251 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 4.2

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : fair

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to trade an upwards wave 3 of an upwards Wave 5 of the very large uptrend.
  • #2,546
  • Jan 8, 2007 3:10am Jan 8, 2007 3:10am
Technically we could be finish this upper movement with 5 wave on the monthly chart being complete now. I added short to my short at 9730.This could be the start of my savings acct for the year. Remember today is 12-1-06 look at your chart a year ago this time last year its time to turn now but as i said we are at 161.8 on the monthly chart and can tecnically go to 261.8 I will be taking porfit at 9043 riding that wave up and watching closely to see if we break todays high and close there. If we dont close higher than todays high IM taking profit at top for big ride down. MAJOR RIDE DOWN for the rest of the year. There will be some up and downs big up and downs as we go.FIX ME POSTED THIS ON EWTHEORY THREAD DEC1 2006. What do you think about this ITME???<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
  • #2,547
  • Jan 8, 2007 3:49am Jan 8, 2007 3:49am
Quoting turn1to100
Technically we could be finish this upper movement with 5 wave on the monthly chart being complete now. I added short to my short at 9730.This could be the start of my savings acct for the year. Remember today is 12-1-06 look at your chart a year ago this time last year its time to turn now but as i said we are at 161.8 on the monthly chart and can tecnically go to 261.8 I will be taking porfit at 9043 riding that wave up and watching closely to see if we break todays high and close there. If we dont close higher than todays high IM taking profit at top for big ride down. MAJOR RIDE DOWN for the rest of the year. There will be some up and downs big up and downs as we go.FIX ME POSTED THIS ON EWTHEORY THREAD DEC1 2006. What do you think about this ITME???<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
I am open to the interpretation of the wave patterns that says we have not yet reached the high of GBP/USD, and that another upwards wave is still to come reaching to a new high. However, I am aware that FixmeOne is predicting a downwards move for the coming months. At this stage, I believe that this may be one of those "indeterminate junctures" when the market can move in either direction and still create a viable Elliott Wave pattern either way. Once it commits strongly in one direction, though, then the ongoing trend direction will be determined. Until then, it may not be determined. I will do a fresh analysis of the current pattern, and report back my results. Until then, I will play it safe, and probably trade other currencies for long trends or reduce my target sizes.
  • #2,548
  • Jan 8, 2007 4:49am Jan 8, 2007 4:49am
Do you have any in mind that have good opp. to hold long trends (gbp/jpy chf/jpy eur/chf)any outlook
Quoting itme
I am open to the interpretation of the wave patterns that says we have not yet reached the high of GBP/USD, and that another upwards wave is still to come reaching to a new high. However, I am aware that FixmeOne is predicting a downwards move for the coming months. At this stage, I believe that this may be one of those "indeterminate junctures" when the market can move in either direction and still create a viable Elliott Wave pattern either way. Once it commits strongly in one direction, though, then the ongoing trend direction will be determined. Until then, it may not be determined. I will do a fresh analysis of the current pattern, and report back my results. Until then, I will play it safe, and probably trade other currencies for long trends or reduce my target sizes.
  • #2,549
  • Edited 10:00am Jan 8, 2007 8:08am | Edited 10:00am
Monday January 8 at 9:00 ET

Trade Experiment #303D Buy GBP/USD at 1.9282

Stop is 1.9258

Target is 1.9350

Risk is 28 pips

Reward is 64 pips

Reward / Risk Ratio is 2.3

 Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : poor

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to trade an upwards wave c of an upwards Wave 4 of the very strong downtrend.
Alternatively, it could be the beginning of a wave 3 upwards of the first wave of a final large Wave 5 leading to a new high.

p.s. - GBP/USD hit 1.9371 at 10:10 ET on January 8 to complete a successfull experiment
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Previous trade signal:

Monday January 5 at 3:30 ET

Exit Experiment #303C Buy GBP/USD at 1.9342

This is the apparent top of an upwards mini-wave. If it is the first wave of a new large Wave 3, then it will probaby retrace considerably before it resumes its upwards travel. If it is the Wave A of a Wave 4 correction, then it will also correct downwards a considerable amount. Since the wave count is now uncertain, it is prudent to take 51 pips of profit and see how the patterns unfold.
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Previous Trade Experiment:

Friday January 5 at 9:00 ET
Trade Experiment #303C Buy GBP/USD at 1.9286
Stop is 1.9239
Target is 1.9735
Risk is 51 pips
Reward is 445 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 8.7

 Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : excellent

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to trade an upwards wave 1 of an upwards Wave 5 of the very large uptrend.
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  • #2,550
  • Edited 10:01am Jan 8, 2007 8:59am | Edited 10:01am
Monday January 8 at 9:45 ET

Trade Experiment #300A Sell EUR/CAD at 1.5320

Stop is 1.5346

 Target is 1.5250

 Risk is 36 pips

Reward is 60 pips

Reward / Risk Ratio is 1.7 : 1

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : poor

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to enter at the top of the a wave of the fourth wave and trade the b wave down - not a preferred wave configuration. Estimating the target is not reliable for this kind of trade with my current system.

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Previous successful trade experiment:

Adjust entry price for Trade Experiment #300 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.5510 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> I just did a short term target analysis of EUR /CAD and found that the correct precise entry price according to our trading system is 1.5503, not 1.5510 as previously estimated. This price was recently met, so theoretically we should be in this short trade at the adjusted price.

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Tuesday January 2, 2006 at 5:45 ET

Trade Experiment #300 Sell EUR/CAD at 1.5510
Stop is 1.5561
Target is 1.5300
Risk is 51 pips
Reward is 200 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 4.0 : 1

Confidence level: fair
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : fair

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to enter at the top of the third wave and trade the fourth wave down - not a preferred wave configuration. Estimating the target is not reliable for this kind of trade with my current system.
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Previous comment:

No smart long trade on EUR/CAD (yet)
EUR/CAD Update for Monday December 18 at 20:00 ET
When things get this far along in a trend, my preference shifts to the short trade at the very, very end of the uptrend. I feel that probabilities of success decrease the further we get towards the end of a trend. So we don't expect to go long unless a very clear pattern emerges indicating the bottom of the downwards corrective wave we are now on and good trend reversal values are met.

Generally, my prediction is for a fall to about 1.5020 to 1.5040, then a rise to 1.5530 to 1.5740. 1.5690 is a possible reversal value. When the price reaches the very top, as evidenced by an Elliott Wave completion pattern and the intersection with high probability reversal values, we will have a good low risk / high probability short trade opportunity. We expect a Fifth Wave upwards, with the top of its internal third wave at 1.5530, and the top of its internal fifth wave at 1.5740.

The current price is 1.5145. We are in a short term corrective downwards fourth wave A-B-C of an upwards third wave of an upwards extended Third Wave according to our current wave hypothesis. Alternatively, we could be in a short term corrective downwards fourth wave A-B-C of an upwards first wave of an upwards B Wave.
  • #2,551
  • Edited 7:20pm Jan 8, 2007 10:23am | Edited 7:20pm
Monday January 8 at 11:15 ET

Upon reflection, I believe that it is probable that USD/CAD is currently engaged in a Wave 4 pattern. Our trade should have been exited at the bottom of the 5-wave pattern at 1.1722, which was a high probability reversal target, to take 58 pips of profit. I believe that this was a wave A of a Wave 4, which was then followed by an upwards wave B, and which will now be followed by a downwards wave C.

Wave C should be reversing at about 1.1780, which is another entry opportunity for a short (few pips) trade downwards. Target is about 1.1710.

p.s. - The upwards wave C reversed at 1.1782 as predicted, and has fallen to 1.1729 so far, on its way to about 1.1722. In case it doesn't make it all the way to 1.1722, traders may elect to exit earlier.
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Friday January 5 at 6:45 ET

Trade Experiment #304A Sell USD/CAD at 1.1785

Stop is 1.1861

Target is 1.1300

Risk is 80 pips

Reward is 481 pips

Reward / Risk Ratio is 6.0

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : good

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to trade down from the top of a large trend - Wave 1 down.
  • #2,552
  • Jan 8, 2007 10:33am Jan 8, 2007 10:33am
Itme or we still looking at 9735
  • #2,553
  • Jan 8, 2007 11:05am Jan 8, 2007 11:05am
Monday January 8 at 12:00 ET

Trade Experiment #306 Sell GBP/CHF at 2.3949

Stop is 2.4007

 Target is 2.3800

 Risk is 68 pips

Reward is 139 pips

Reward / Risk Ratio is 2.0 : 1

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : poor

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to enter at the top of the b wave of the fourth wave and trade the c wave down.
  • #2,554
  • Jan 8, 2007 12:00pm Jan 8, 2007 12:00pm
GBP/JPY dropped about 45 pips to 228.60 immediately after the nonfarm payrolls report release Friday morning, but did not hit our stop. The pair then rose up to 229.70<!-- / message --><!-- sig --> afterwards. Not knowing the outcome of the release, we made the right decision to enter when we did. We survived the downwards spike with a modest stop, and if the news had been the opposite, we would have seen a large profit very quickly. Given that the payrolls report was very high, and thus good for the USD, and thus very bearish for the GBP/USD, it would have been very prudent to cash out of Trade Experiment #305 Buy GBP/JPY at 229.05 at or near to the high of 229.70 to take profit of about 55 pips. Had the report gone the other way, we would likely have seen large profits. As it is, we were fortunate to be given the opportunity to make modest profits. The completed A-B-C corrective wave pattern and triple top were strong indications that 229.70 was the top of the wave.

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Previous trade experiment:

 Friday January 5 at 7:45 ET

 After studing the wave pattern more, we think it is likely that the price won't go below 229.05 again. Therefore we will revise our entry price to 229.05

Revise entry price in Trade Experiment #305 Buy GBP/JPY to 229.05

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 Friday January 5 at 12:45 ET
Trade Experiment #305 Buy GBP/JPY at 228.65
Stop is 228.24
Target is 231.45
Risk is 49 pips
Reward is 271 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 5.5

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : good

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to trade the Wave B of a Wave 4 A-B-C up.
  • #2,555
  • Edited 1:49pm Jan 8, 2007 12:09pm | Edited 1:49pm
Correction - the correct entry price is 229.85, not 229.75. Sorry.

Also - Adjust stop up to 230.35

Monday January 8 at 1:00 ET

Trade Experiment #307 Sell GBP/JPY at 229.85

Stop is 230.14

 Target is 228.00

 Risk is 38 pips

Reward is 176 pips

Reward / Risk Ratio is 4.6 : 1

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : fair

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to enter at the top of the A wave of the fourth wave and trade the B wave down.

Adjust stop - the stop here for GBP/JPY is too small. this pair requires a larger stop due to its extreme volatility.

Adjust stop up to 230.35
  • #2,556
  • Jan 8, 2007 12:38pm Jan 8, 2007 12:38pm
hi itme, what do you think about GBP/USD, how far will it go up before it reverses again? your theory with wave c is logical. i was reading in my EW book and putting some data together with the solution to be in a complex correction. but i have no real clue how far this correction could go maybe 38,2% or 61,8%.

any suggestions
  • #2,557
  • Jan 8, 2007 7:25pm Jan 8, 2007 7:25pm
Monday January 8 at 20:15 ET

Trade Experiment #307A Sell GBP/JPY at 231.00

Stop is 231.41

 Target is 228.00

 Risk is 50 pips

Reward is 291 pips

Reward / Risk Ratio is 5.8 : 1

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : good

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to enter at the top of the A wave of the fourth wave and trade the B wave down.

____________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________
Previous trade experiment (stopped out):

Correction - the correct entry price is 229.85, not 229.75. Sorry.

Also - Adjust stop up to 230.35

Monday January 8 at 1:00 ET

Trade Experiment #307 Sell GBP/JPY at 229.85

Stop is 230.14

 Target is 228.00

 Risk is 38 pips

Reward is 176 pips

Reward / Risk Ratio is 4.6 : 1

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : fair

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to enter at the top of the A wave of the fourth wave and trade the B wave down.

Adjust stop - the stop here for GBP/JPY is too small. this pair requires a larger stop due to its extreme volatility.

Adjust stop up to 230.35
  • #2,558
  • Jan 8, 2007 9:15pm Jan 8, 2007 9:15pm
Quote
Quote
This is an attempt to enter at the top of the A wave of the fourth wave and trade the B wave down.

Adjust stop - the stop here for GBP/JPY is too small. this pair requires a larger stop due to its extreme volatility.

Adjust stop up to 230.35


This has certainly been one of the tricky pairs to call. Easy call after it failed 235, Wave 4 retraced almost perfectly 50% when I used 11/23-jan 03 Wave 3. With this weeks BOE and next weeks BOJ rate announcements, I wasn't sold on longs just yet, but man this B waves taking a while, I've got it measured at 231.65(25% from the top) before we turn down.

Itsme: good work past weeks, you were spot on, if we lock down this pair our accounts will be very happy in a short amount of time.
  • #2,559
  • Jan 9, 2007 12:34am Jan 9, 2007 12:34am
Many of my experimental losses are caused by my incessant attempts to predict the endpoints of the trends on the two biggest moving currency pairs, GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF. The success rate of my standard system is low with these two pairs. My system seems to break down when I try to predict the endpoint of these pairs for a variety of reasons. Both the amplitude and the period of the waves are much larger for these pairs than all other pairs. And the Elliott Waves are much different in appearance.

However, I did manage to bag the top of the recent 600 pip decline in the GBP/JPY, which is a minor triumph. Overall, I believe that my trading system will need major adjustments when applied to these two cross pairs before its win rate increases to acceptable levels.
  • #2,560
  • Edited 1:27am Jan 9, 2007 1:17am | Edited 1:27am
That being said, we try again, knowing that if we can be correct 50% of the time, due to our relatively high reward / risk ration, then we are "in the money", as they say.

Note that any trade with a reward : risk ratio of less than 5:1 is not, in our opinion, worth the risk, as there are plenty of superior trades available.

Tuesday January 9 at 2:00 ET

Trade Experiment #306A Sell GBP/CHF at 2.4032

Stop is 2.4061

 Target is 2.3800

 Risk is 44 pips

Reward is 217 pips

Reward / Risk Ratio is 4.8 : 1

Confidence level: fair
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : good

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to enter at the top of the A wave of the fourth wave and trade the B wave down.

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Previous trade experiment (stopped out):

Monday January 8 at 12:00 ET

Trade Experiment #306 Sell GBP/CHF at 2.3949
Stop is 2.4007
Target is 2.3800
Risk is 68 pips
Reward is 139 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is 2.0 : 1

Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : poor

For research purposes only.

This is an attempt to enter at the top of the c wave of the fourth wave and trade the 5th wave down.
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